Coin Market

Black Monday 2.0? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Published

1 month ago

April 7, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) is turning back the clock this week as tariff mayhem drags BTC price action toward 2021.

Bitcoin is giving up bull market support lines left and right as a new “death cross” completes on the BTC/USD daily chart.

CPI week is firmly overshadowed by US trade tariffs and their increasingly global impact on stock markets.

Both crypto and TradFi market participants are drawing comparisons to “Black Monday” 1987 and the COVID-19 cross-market crash.

Bitcoin’s speculative investor base is firmly out of pocket and likely increasingly tempted to panic sell.

Sentiment everywhere is nonexistent, with the TradFi Fear & Greed Index recording its lowest score in history.

BTC price “death cross” brings 2021 highs into play

Bitcoin risks falling below its old all-time highs from March 2024 next, Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

After slipping below $75,000 for the first time since November, BTC/USD is rapidly reawakening long forgotten bull market support lines. These include $69,000, a level that first appeared in 2021.

The dive, which came as a copycat move several days after stock markets began to suffer major losses, caught many by surprise.

Is our uncorrelated hedge in the room right now?

— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) April 6, 2025

“This is $BTC’s last chance to maintain its macro uptrend structure,” popular analyst Kevin Svenson summarized in a warning on X.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Kevin Svenson/X

Among the trend lines now lost as support is the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at around $77,000.

In an X thread on the coming week, popular trader CrypNuevo described price violating that level as the “only short triggerr I’ll be paying attention to.”

“If we drop below support and get back above it, then I’ll consider this as a deviation and that will be my long trigger fo a push up back to $87k,” he explained.

BTC/USDT 1-week chart with 50EMA. Source: CrypNuevo/X

Trading resource Material Indicators, meanwhile flagged a telltale “death cross” on daily timeframes. This typical bearish signal involves the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing below its 200-day equivalent.

“The momentum carrying through that Death Cross, puts BTC at a critical macro support test,” it told X followers.

“Stay tuned…”

BTC/USD 1-day chart with 50, 200 SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

CPI week meets emergency rate cuts

Like last week, US trade tariffs are the major talking point across financial markets worldwide.

The impact of measures announced last week continues to be felt, as downside momentum on risk assets now becomes fueled by the prospect of more tariffs set for release on April 9.

Speaking to mainstream media over the weekend, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that the US government would go ahead with the measures without delay.

“The tariffs are coming,” he told CBS News.

With sentiment diving and panic setting in among market participants from trading desks to hedge funds, little attention is being paid to the week’s other potential volatility catalysts.

These will come in the form of US inflation data, itself a key topic as tariffs risk causing unexpected price growth.

The March prints of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are due on April 10 and 11, respectively.

Previously, Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, said that while tariffs would have a palpable effect on the US inflation battle, it would be difficult to assess this accurately in advance.

“As the new policies and their likely economic effects become clear, we will have a better sense of the implications for the economy and for monetary policy,” he subsequently said during a speech last week.

Fed target rate probability comparison for May FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Market expectations of the Fed easing policy to compensate for the tariffs are clearly reflected in interest rate forecasts.

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now shows that consensus favors a 0.25% rate cut at the Fed’s May meeting — sooner than the June deadline assumed until this weekend.

In informal circles, including social media and prediction platforms such as Polymarket, bets of an “emergency” rate cut coming sooner are rising rapidly.

“The Federal Reserve may have to make an emergency rate cut soon,” Professional Capital Management founder and CEO Anthony Pompliano predicted at the weekend.

“Inflation has fallen to the lowest levels since 2020. If this continues, it will be a BIG problem.”

Odds for 2025 Fed rate cut as of April 7 (screenshot). Source: Polymarket

“Black Monday” 1987 or COVID-19 repeat?

In the short term, the “effects” of tariffs are feared to include a marketwide crash similar to “Black Monday” in 1987.

As Cointelegraph reported, market responses to the first round of reciprocal tariffs laid the foundations for turmoil at the upcoming Wall Street open.

A 10% dip in two consecutive days has only happened for the fourth time in history.

October 1987.
October 2008.
March 2020.
April 2025.

In 1987 & 2020, it marked the bottom.
In 2008, it took one more month to mark the bottom.

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 6, 2025

For trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe, crypto’s Black Monday moment is already here.

“I think we’ll see a rollercoaster 1-2 weeks in which we’re having a test of the lows for Bitcoin. It can go as deep as $70K from here,” he warned X followers on April 7.

Van de Poppe saw an emergency Fed rate cut as the only logical escape path for stemming the risk-asset bleed.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter meanwhile pointed to heavy losses on both Chinese and Japanese stocks during the week’s first Asia trading session.

“We are seeing the market’s first circuit breakers since March 2020,” it reported.

Kobeissi described market sentiment as “polarized,” drawing multiple comparisons to the COVID-19 cross-market crash in March 2020 and beyond.

“This is by far the most panic we have seen in the market since March 2020. In fact, we may be nearing investor panic levels ABOVE March 2020,” it added.

“It’s currently a widespread rush to the exit for investors.”

Bitcoin’s new hodler losses multiply

On Bitcoin, the investor cohort likely first to capitulate are short-term holders (STHs) — the market’s more speculative entities with a buy-in date within the last six months.

As Cointelegraph reported, these investors are highly sensitive to BTC price volatility, and that their panic selling creates a vicious circle for the market.

Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant now shows that the STH cohort is falling increasingly into the red.

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which tracks STH coins moving in profit or loss, is currently below breakeven.

“When STH-SOPR falls below 1.0, it reflects that short-term investors are realizing losses — a classic signal of capitulation,” CryptoQuant contributor Yonsei Dent noted in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts.

“Looking back at 2024, major price corrections were accompanied by sharp drops in STH-SOPR, often reaching or falling below the -2 standard deviation band. These moments — notably in May, July, and August — aligned with periods of panic selling among short-term market participants.”

Bitcoin STH-SOPR chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Below $80,000, BTC/USD is now comfortably under the aggregate cost basis for STH investors, CryptoQuant confirms.

Bitcoin’s total aggregate cost basis, which includes long-term holders, currently sits at $43,000.

Bitcoin STH cost bases. Source: CryptoQuant

Sentiment eclipses bearish records

In a sobering yet arguably bizarre move, the extent of bearish sentiment on traditional markets, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index, has fallen to extremes.

The latest data from the Index, which uses a basket of factors to compute the market mood, gives a reading of just 4/100.

“It’s never been this low: not in COVID, not after FTX collapse,” popular crypto commentator Atlas noted.

Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: CNN

Crypto continues to weather the storm somewhat better, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 23/100 on April 7.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Beyond the panic, some voices are cautiously hinting that now is an ideal moment to “buy the dip” — whether on stocks or crypto.

“This doesn’t necessarily mean the absolute bottom is in, but is generally at least a local opportunity,” the founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, argued in an X thread.

Edwards tallied up both bullish and bearish arguments, and concluded that much risk remained, especially to Bitcoin’s bull market.

“To be fair Bitcoin did very well last week, but has played catch up (to the downside) over the weekend. Pending some large unforeseen news, it’s going to be hard for Bitcoin to fight a correlation=1 event across risk assets, we saw something similar in early 2020,” he commented.

“That said, there is historically significant relative strength here to note. We can likely expect Bitcoin to rally the hardest off the bottom, whereever and whenever that is.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Coin Market

$45 million stolen from Coinbase users in the last week — ZackXBT

Published

42 minutes ago

May 7, 2025

Onchain sleuth and security analyst ZackXBT claims to have identified an additional $45 million in funds stolen from Coinbase users through social engineering scams in the past seven days alone.

According to the onchain detective, the $45 million figure represents the latest financial losses in a string of social engineering scams targeting Coinbase users, which ZackXBT said is a problem unique among crypto exchanges:

“Over the past few months, I have reported on nine figures stolen from Coinbase users via similar social engineering scams. Interestingly, no other major exchange has the same problem.”

Cointelegraph reached out to Coinbase but was unable to get a response by the time of publication.

Source: ZachXBT

The claims made by ZackXBT place the total amount lost by Coinbase users to social engineering scams at $330 million annually and reflect the growing number of sophisticated attack strategies employed by threat actors to defraud crypto holders.

FBI issues warnings on social engineering scams targeting crypto users

In July 2024, reports emerged that several Coinbase users were targeted by scammers posing as the exchange’s support staff. The scammers managed to drain $1.7 million from one user.

The United States Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) issued a warning in August 2024, sounding the alarm on scammers posing as crypto exchanges in an attempt to steal user funds and sensitive user data.

The FBI expanded this warning in September 2024, highlighting the use of fake employment offers from scammers targeting crypto users.

According to the FBI, North Korean state-affiliated hacking groups would direct victims to download malicious software by disguising the software packages as employment tests, job applications, and information on investment opportunities.

More recently, in March 2025, crypto users reported an uptick in scam emails imitating legitimate communication from crypto exchanges, directing users to withdraw their funds to external wallets.

The growing variety and sophistication of social engineering scams prompted Coinbase chief security officer Phillip Martin to call for streamlining the scam reporting process by having a single, unified framework or repository for identifying and combating scams.

Magazine: Real AI use cases in crypto, No. 3: Smart contract audits & cybersecurity

Coin Market

Ethereum Pectra upgrade adds new features — How long before ETH price reacts?

Published

42 minutes ago

May 7, 2025

Key takeaways:

Reclaiming the $2,200 level remains the first price challenge for ETH.

ETH price could recover if the Pectra upgrade leads to a surge in DApp and Ethereum network activity.

Ethereum successfully implemented a key network upgrade on May 7, but Ether (ETH) price and its derivatives metrics showed little response to the upgrade. The lackluster response surprised traders and led analysts to question whether ETH still has a real chance of climbing 22% to retake the $2,200 level.

Ether 30-day futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The ETH futures premium has remained below the 5% neutral threshold, indicating a lack of appetite from leveraged bulls. More significantly, this indicator was unchanged at 3% after the Pectra upgrade, suggesting traders did not adjust their positions despite the upgrade’s successful deployment.

The subdued response can be partly explained by investors’ focus on macroeconomic issues, as recession risks arise amid uncertainty in global trade disputes. But traders’ lack of interest in Ether predates the recent worsening of risk aversion conditions. In fact, ETH underperformed the broader cryptocurrency market capitalization by 28% in the first three months of 2025.

The lackluster price impact following the Pectra upgrade reflects broader dissatisfaction, as competing blockchains have gained traction.

Solana monthly active addresses vs. layer-1 competitors. Source: Token Terminal

Historically, high Ethereum base layer fees may have limited network activity, but these costs have dropped below $1 since mid-February. Additionally, Ethereum’s leading layer-2 solution, Base, currently boasts 10.3 million monthly active users-far fewer than Solana’s 82.2 million and BNB Chain’s 25.9 million, according to Token Terminal data.

Ethereum lags in DApp interoperability — Will it hurt ETH price?

Solana has dominated the decentralized exchange sector, particularly in token launches, by offering an integrated user experience. Similarly, Hyperliquid has exceeded expectations in perpetual futures trading, demonstrating that traders’ primary focus is not necessarily on Ethereum’s decentralization and security. Meanwhile, Tron has made significant inroads in the stablecoin market.

Blockchains and DApps 30-day fees, USD. Source: DefiLlama

Ethereum’s leadership in total value locked (TVL) remains undisputed at $53.7 billion. However, this has provided little benefit to ETH holders, as network fees have been relatively low at $19 million over the past 30 days, according to DefiLlama. For comparison, Tron has amassed $51.8 million in fees in the same period, while Solana has accrued $39.4 million.

Source: X/ProbablyNoam

Noam Hurwitz, head of engineering at Alchemy, noted that Ethereum blob fees have dropped to their lowest possible level since the Pectra upgrade. For Hurwitz, Ether’s success depends on base layer scalability, including further improvements in the rollup mechanism, and ultimately, a more seamless user experience.

Bridging assets and data across Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem has long been a challenge, while users on Solana and BNB Chain can easily switch between multiple decentralized applications (DApps). The Pectra upgrade, while a step in the right direction, does not resolve this issue, which explains why ETH has been unable to reclaim the $2,200 level seen in early March.

For Ether’s price to climb 22% from its current $1,810 level, investors likely need reassurance that the network’s progress, whether through deposits or layer-2 growth, translates into clear benefits. Ultimately, improved staking yields or stronger incentives are needed to drive broader adoption of DApps, which in turn would generate increased demand for ETH within the ecosystem.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Coin Market

COLDRIVER using new malware to steal from Western targets — Google

Published

2 hours ago

May 7, 2025

Threat group COLDRIVER is using new malware to steal documents from Western targets, according to a May 7 report from Google Threat Intelligence. The malware, called LOSTKEYS, shows the evolution of the group from credential phishing to more sophisticated attacks.

According to the Google report, the new malware is installed through four steps. The process involves a “lure website” with a fake CAPTCHA, a PowerShell script downloaded to the user’s clipboard, some device evasion, and retrieval of the final payload. Lastly, the malware is installed.

LOSTKEYS payload delivery. Source: Google

LOSTKEYS is capable of stealing files from extensions and directories. It can also send system information and running processes back to COLDRIVER. The address from which the parts of the attack come is “165.227.148[.]68” according to Google.

The company says it has already taken steps to mitigate any damage the LOSTKEYS malware will cause, including adding the malicious websites to the company’s “Safe Browsing” feature.

According to Google, COLDRIVER is a Russian-backed threat group that typically engages in phishing attempts at high-profile Western targets, such as former diplomats, and journalists. In January 2024, it started an attack with a malware called “Spica,” which can execute arbitrary shell commands and download or upload software.

Crypto hack losses hit all-time high in 2025

Crypto hacks have surged in 2025, with total losses reaching $2 billion in the first quarter alone — exceeding all losses recorded in 2024.

According to a report by crypto cybersecurity firm Hacken, operational flaws and weak access controls remain key vulnerabilities — even among major centralized and decentralized players. Attackers are also increasingly using social engineering tactics to gain victims’ trust.

Contributing to last quarter’s losses was the $1.5 billion hack of cryptocurrency exchange Bybit. The February attack was reportedly orchestrated by the Lazarus Group.

Magazine: Lazarus Group’s favorite exploit revealed — Crypto hacks analysis