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Bitcoin traders prepare for rally to $100K as ‘decoupling’ and ‘gold leads BTC’ trend takes shape

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Bitcoin (BTC) price could head back toward the $100,000 level quicker than investors expected if the early signs of its decoupling from the US stock market and gold continue.

Source: Cory Bates / X

The “gold leads, Bitcoin follows” relationship is starting

Bitcoin has shrugged off the market jitters caused by US President Donald Trump’s April 2 global tariff announcement.

While BTC initially dropped over 3% to around $82,500, it eventually rebounded by roughly 4.5% to cross $84,700. In contrast, the S&P 500 plunged 10.65% this week, and gold—after hitting a record $3,167 on April 3—has slipped 4.8%.

BTC/USD vs. gold and S&P 500 daily performance chart. Source: TradingView

The fresh divergence is fueling the “gold-leads-Bitcoin narrative,” taking cues from price trends from late 2018 through mid-2019 to predict a strong price recovery toward $100,000.

Gold began a steady ascent, gaining nearly 15% by mid-2019, while Bitcoin remained largely flat. Bitcoin’s breakout followed shortly after, rallying over 170% in early 2019 and then surging another 344% by late 2020.

BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

“A reclaim of $100k would imply a handoff from gold to BTC,” said market analyst MacroScope, adding:

“As in previous cycles, this would open the door to a new period of huge outperformance by BTC over gold and other assets.

The outlook aligned with Alpine Fox founder Mike Alfred, who shared an analysis from March 14, wherein he anticipated Bitcoin to grow 10 times or more than gold based on previous instances.

Source: Mike Alfred / X

Bitcoin-to-gold ratio warns of a bull trap

Bitcoin may be eyeing a drop toward $65,000, based on a bearish fractal playing out in the Bitcoin-to-gold (BTC/XAU) ratio.

The BTC/XAU ratio is flashing a familiar pattern that traders last saw in 2021. The breakdown followed a second major support test at the 50-2W exponential moving average.

BTC/XAU ratio two-week chart. Source: TradingView

BTC/XAU is now repeating this fractal and once again testing the red 50-EMA as support.

In the previous cycle, Bitcoin consolidated around the same EMA level before breaking decisively lower, eventually finding support at the 200-2W EMA (the blue wave). If history repeats, BTC/XAU could be on track for a deeper correction, especially if macro conditions worsen.

Interestingly, these breakdown cycles have coincided with a drop in Bitcoin’s value in dollar terms, as shown below.

BTC/USD 2W price chart. Source: TradingView

Should the fractal repeat, Bitcoin’s initial downside target could be its 50-2W EMA around the $65,000 level, with additional selloffs suggesting declines below $20,000, aligning with the 200-2W EMA.

A bounce from BTC/XAU’s 50-2W EMA, on the other hand, may invalidate the bearish fractal.

US recession would squash Bitcoin’s bullish outlook

From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin’s price outlook appears skewed to the downside.

Investors are concerned that President Donald Trump’s global tariff war could spiral into a full-blown trade war and trigger a US recession. Risk assets like Bitcoin tend to underperform during economic contractions.

Related: Bitcoin ‘decouples,’ stocks lose $3.5T amid Trump tariff war and Fed warning of ‘higher inflation’

Further dampening sentiment, on April 4, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.

Powell warned that inflation progress remains uneven, signaling a prolonged high-rate environment that may add more pressure to Bitcoin’s upside momentum.

Nonetheless, most bond traders see three consecutive rate cuts until the Fed’s September meeting, according to CME data.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coin Market

Solana network activity surge and ‘megaphone’ chart pattern set $210 SOL price target

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Key Takeaways:

Solana formed a megaphone chart pattern with a potential $210 price target.

Solana’s ecosystem growth highlights renewed investor interest with a $4 billion realized cap increase and 731 million transactions.

Solana (SOL) price tested its key resistance at $180 earlier this week, but the altcoin failed to establish a position above the level. Over the past few days, SOL has consolidated above the $170 mark, but prices have dropped 5.65% since May 14.

Including the recent minor dip, Solana has formed a megaphone pattern on the 4-hour chart, a classic technical setup indicating increasing volatility.

Solana 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The chart illustrates that the megaphone’s upper resistance trendline sits near $185, aligning with immediate resistance at $180. A confirmed breakout above this level could propel SOL toward the pattern’s first target at $210, calculated by measuring the widest part of the pattern and projecting it upward from the breakout point.

If momentum is sustained, the next target will be $210, representing a 21% rally from current prices. A break above $200 would also trigger a psychological level that could attract further buying pressure.

However, it is essential to note that a megaphone pattern can also be bearish. Failure to break $180 may lead to a pullback toward the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $161 or the pattern’s lower support near $150. Volume confirmation on the breakout is a key trigger, as low volume could signal a false move, leading to an immediate reversal of the initial directional bias. 

Related: Solana network and DeFi activity suggest SOL price rally will continue

Solana’s $4 billion realized cap growth and 731 million transactions signal momentum

Solana is experiencing a revival in investor interest, with Glassnode reporting a 4% to 5% rise in 30-day capital inflows, matching XRP’s (XRP) growth. After months of outflows, this trend reversal signals renewed demand in the Solana ecosystem. The realized cap, reflecting a coin’s last transacted value, is up $4 billion to $78.5 billion on May 14, showing SOL’s growing momentum.

Solana realized cap. Source: Glassnode

Data from a Top 7 ICO report further validates Solana’s strong performance, securing its position as the second-ranked blockchain by transactions. Over the past week, Solana processed an impressive 731 million transactions, trailing only Hyperliquid’s 1.79 billion. It significantly outperformed Base, which logged 77.1 million transactions, highlighting Solana’s existing advantage and popularity compared to other chains.

Top blockchain by number of transactions. Source: X.com

Related: Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows fall, but BTC whale activity points to bull market acceleration

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coin Market

Coinbase fires compromised agents in India— Report

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Coinbase has reportedly fired a group of customer support agents following their alleged involvement in social engineering attacks on users. The contracted agents were based in India.

According to a May 15 Fortune interview, Coinbase’s chief security officer, Philip Martin, said the company flagged customer support contractors who allowed scammers access to user data, suggesting they could be Indian nationals. The CSO’s comments came after some crypto users reeled from attempted phishing attacks using their Coinbase data, which the exchange estimated could cost them between $180 million and $400 million in remediation and reimbursement.

Qiao Wang, a core contributor to Alliance DAO, said in a May 15 X post that he may have been a victim of one of these attacks. He said a scammer notified him his Coinbase account had been compromised, asked him to verify his personal information, to which the criminals likely had access through the compromised agents, and requested he withdraw all his funds to a “Coinbase self-custodial wallet.”

“I called them out at the end of the call telling them they need to step up their game […],” said Wang on X. “They told me that had made $7m that day.”

Cointelegraph reached out to Martin and Coinbase for comments, but had not received responses at the time of publication.

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

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Canada lags with stablecoin approach, but there’s room to catch up

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The slow adoption of stablecoins in Canada has some local crypto industry observers concerned that the country is falling behind.

The Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) classified stablecoins as “securities and/or derivatives” in December 2022 after the FTX debacle that shook markets and turned many lawmakers against the crypto industry.

Regulating stablecoins as a security has seen few local stablecoin issuers arise, but in the United States and the European Union, softening regulations have seen significant growth in the stablecoin market. This makes Canada, observers say, less competitive with other jurisdictions. 

Of particular concern is the perceived gap in peer-to-peer (P2P) payments in Canada, which stablecoins are uniquely qualified to fill. 

Stablecoins globally have grown significantly over the last five years. Source: DefiLlama

Local law constrains stablecoin growth and threatens dollar

In 2022, as the crypto market reeled from the collapse of FTX and the implosion of the Terra stablecoin system, regulators worldwide began to look more critically at the crypto space. 

In Canada, the CSA updated regulations for crypto exchanges and brought stablecoins under its purview, classifying them as securities/derivatives. This hasn’t been a popular decision with Canada’s crypto industry.

Morva Rohani, founding managing director of the Canadian Web3 Council, told Cointelegraph that the CSA’s case-by-case basis for considering stablecoin issuers and the lack of a federal framework make for a “patchwork” regulatory regime.

“Canada’s reliance on securities law to regulate payment stablecoins introduces significant legal and operational uncertainty,” she said.

Tanim Rasul, chief operating officer of Canadian crypto exchange NDAX, said that the CSA “got it wrong,” stating that other regulatory frameworks, like the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) law, were more appropriate.

“I would just say, look at MiCA, look at the way they’re approaching stablecoins. It’s a payment instrument. It should be regulated as such,” he told a crowd at the Blockchain Futurist Conference in Toronto on May 13. 

It’s not just the EU. Singapore and the UAE have also introduced regulatory frameworks for stablecoins, and US senators are optimistic they will pass a stablecoin law by May 26.

Related: What are the next steps for the US stablecoin bill?

Rohani said Canada is “out of step with leading global jurisdictions […] which have adopted tailored, prudential frameworks that recognize stablecoins as payment instruments.”

This lack of alignment with other, more pro-stablecoin jurisdictions could have negative effects for the Canadian dollar (CAD), some worry.

Som Seif, founder of Canadian investment firm Purpose Financial, said that the proliferation of other major stablecoins, mostly denominated in the US dollar, could threaten the use of the loonie (a nickname for the Canadian dollar) at home.

“If Canada does not create the regulatory framework and environment that encourages the development of CAD stablecoins, consumers and businesses will default to using USD-pegged alternatives, eroding the relevance of CAD in global markets,” he said.

Stablecoins provide cheaper P2P payments but reputation is also a roadblock

Members of the Canadian crypto industry have stated that stablecoins have a role to play in the country as well, given the purported lack of P2P payment networks available in the country.

Speaking to Cointelegraph on May 13, Coinbase Canada CEO Lucas Matheson said, “It’s really important that we have a stablecoin for Canadians.” He said that the only options currently open were wire transfers, which “cost $45 and take 45 minutes of paperwork.”

Rohani said that Interac e-Transfer, a Canadian funds transfer service, “remains the primary domestic P2P rail, operating through banks and credit unions.”

Related: Stablecoins seen as ideal fit for real-time collateral management

Canada does have apps like PayPal and Wise, which support international P2P transfers, but those often come with high commissions and slow settlement times compared to stablecoins.

Rohani said that while some crypto platforms allow for P2P transfers, they’re not widely used due to a lack of integration into mainstream financial services.

Demand for more and different digital payment methods is growing in Canada, according to the 2024 digital payments report from Payments Canada, the owner and operator of Canada’s payment clearing and settlement infrastructure.

But that demand may not translate directly into stablecoins. Crypto’s “journey towards financial integration among Canadians remains a distant prospect,” the report reads. Some 91% of Canadians have never used crypto as a payment. 

Ease of use and security were top priorities for international payment users. Source: Payments Canada

Payments Canada attributes the lack of interest to the assets being perceived as the “least secure payment method among Canadians compared to alternatives such as cash, credit cards, cheques, wire transfers and PayPal.”

Even in the context of a central bank digital currency, which the crypto industry generally regards as a less favorable option to private, fiat-denominated stablecoins, interest just isn’t there. The survey found that 85% of respondents “did not envision themselves using a digital Canadian dollar and preferred their existing payment methods.”

Is PM Carney pro-crypto?

If more tailor-made regulations could integrate stablecoins with the mainstream payment options Canadians are comfortable with, it would still take a concerted effort from policymakers in Ottawa, where the Liberals have just won the federal elections.

The crypto industry had cause for doubt. Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney has previously expressed skepticism about cryptocurrency. In a speech as Governor of the Bank of England, he said they had failed as money. 

Still, he acknowledged stablecoins have a role to play in retail and wholesale payments. He said in 2021 that stablecoins should have access to central bank balance sheets — but only if strong protections were in place.

“There’s been two systemic crises in money funds in little more than a decade […] In baseball, it’s three strikes and you’re out. In cricket, it’s only the equivalent of one. For systemic payment systems, one is too many,” Carney stated.

Kohani said, “With Mark Carney at the helm of the Liberal Party, we anticipate a pragmatic but regulation-first approach to crypto and stablecoins.”

While his previous openness toward stablecoins suggests he’s open to the technology, he also “emphasizes the need for regulation, oversight and safeguards.”

Another Liberal term, per Kohani, will likely mean the CSA continues to lead enforcement but could result in broader policy work, including a framework on stablecoins, “particularly if positioned as a tool for payments modernization and maintaining the relevance of the Canadian dollar.”

Magazine: Danger signs for Bitcoin as retail abandons it to institutions: Sky Wee

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