Coin Market

Bitcoin can hit $250K in 2025 if Fed shifts to QE: Arthur Hayes

Published

3 weeks ago

April 2, 2025

Bitcoin may still rise to over $250,000 before the end of the year, with expectations of an increasing fiat supply remaining the significant catalyst for the world’s first cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) 2025 price rally may be boosted by the US Federal Reserve pivoting to quantitative easing (QE), when the Fed buys bonds and pumps money into the economy to lower interest rates and encourage spending during difficult financial conditions.

“Bitcoin trades solely based on the market expectation for the future supply of fiat,” according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom.

Hayes wrote in an April 1 Substack post:

“If my analysis of the Fed’s major pivot from QT to QE for treasuries is correct, then Bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 last month, and now we begin the ascent to $250,000 by year-end.”

The Fed reduced the Treasury runoff cap to $5 billion per month from $25 billion effective April 1, while keeping mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoff steady at $35 billion.

The Fed may allow the MBS roll off without replacement and the excess principal payment might be reinvested into Treasurys, according to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell published by Reuters.

“Mathematically, that keeps the Fed balance sheet constant; however, that is treasury QE. Bitcoin will scream higher once this is formally announced,” added Hayes.

Other analysts are eying a more conservative Bitcoin price top based on BTC’s correlation with the global liquidity index.

BTC projected to reach $132,000 based on M2 money supply growth. Source: Jamie Coutts

The growing money supply could push Bitcoin’s price above $132,000 before the end of 2025, according to estimates from Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision.

Fed will “flood the market with dollars”

Hayes has been “buying Bitcoin and shitcoins at all levels between $90,000 to $76,500,” showcasing his conviction in the crypto market for the rest of 2025. The pace of capital deployment will increase or decrease depending on the accuracy of his predictions.

“I still believe Bitcoin can hit $250,000 by year-end because now that the BBC has put Powell in his place, the Fed will flood the market with dollars,” wrote Hayes, adding:

“That allows Xi Jinping to instruct the PBOC to stop tightening monetary conditions onshore to defend the dollar-yuan exchange rate, which increases the net quantity of yuan.”

Despite the optimistic prediction, many market participants are betting on a lower Bitcoin price top for the end of 2025.

Source: Polymarket

Only 9% of traders have placed bets on Bitcoin hitting $250,000, while 60% expect Bitcoin to hit $110,000 in 2025, according to Polymarket, the largest decentralized predictions market.

Still, Bitcoin and global risk appetite remain pressured by global tariff fears ahead of US President Donald Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement, scheduled for April 2.

“Long-term positioning remains intact, but near-term momentum appears tethered to unfolding macro headlines,” Stella Zlatareva, dispatch editor at digital asset investment platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s odds of June highs, SOL’s $485M outflows, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 2 – 8

Coin Market

What are spot Solana ETFs with staking? Canada’s crypto innovation explained

Published

1 minute ago

April 23, 2025

What are spot Solana ETFs and why are they important?

A spot Solana ETF is an exchange-traded fund that holds Solana (SOL) tokens directly, providing investors real-time exposure to the asset’s market price. Rather than using complex trading platforms or crypto wallets, you can access Solana via a regulated financial product traded on a traditional stock exchange.

The value of Solana ETFs is directly tied to the open market price of SOL, offering a simple way to gain exposure to the blockchain’s performance without directly holding the asset. Unlike futures-based ETFs that use derivative contracts to speculate on Solana’s future prices, a spot ETF tracks the performance of the actual asset.

This distinction is significant because futures products may face pricing inefficiencies, leading to performance mismatches over time. Spot ETFs are more transparent and directly reflect SOL’s real-time supply and demand on the Solana blockchain.

Spot Solana ETFs mark a significant step toward mainstream crypto adoption. These products enable retail and institutional investors to gain exposure to the Solana ecosystem while operating within the bounds of securities regulations.

Like spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, spot Solana exchange-traded funds are expected to expand market access and serve as another entry point to decentralized finance (DeFi) for traditional investors.

Did you know? Spot ETFs aim to mirror an asset’s current price by directly holding the asset, while futures ETFs use derivative contracts to speculate on future price movements.

Launch of spot Solana ETFs on the Toronto Stock Exchange

On April 16, 2025, four spot Solana ETFs started trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange, following approval from the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC). With this, Canada became the first country to launch spot SOL ETFs with staking. The OSC granted approval to the spot Solana ETFs of four asset managers: 3iQ, Purpose, Evolve and CI Financial.

Unlike products that only track Solana’s price, these funds hold SOL tokens, giving investors direct ownership of the asset. The funds are secured via institutional-grade cold storage custody. Each fund tracks a distinct Solana-related index, offering diverse strategies with onchain asset backing. Despite their structural differences, these ETFs are all designed for long-term investment, reflecting the issuers’ strong belief in Solana’s future in DeFi.

By incorporating staking, these spot Solana ETFs provide an active way for investors to earn returns in the cryptocurrency market, all within a regulatory framework and secure, institutional-grade custody services.

These ETFs enable staking through a partnership with TD Bank, allowing the SOL they hold to actively support and secure the Solana network. In return, the network issues staking rewards, which can be passed on to investors. Since Solana typically offers higher staking yields than Ethereum, this structure may translate into greater potential returns for investors.

How does staking boost returns for Solana ETF investors?

By offering staking, these spot Solana ETFs may boost returns for investors by an estimated 2%-3.5% annually, in addition to the performance of the underlying SOL.

The ETFs generate yield by working with staking partners that delegate up to 50% of the fund’s assets for staking. Staking rewards generated by the ETF are typically shared between shareholders and the fund manager, with the specific allocation varying depending on the ETF issuer.

Management fees of these spot Solana ETFs vary from 0.15% to 1%, with some providers offering fee waivers during the initial launch phase. After two days of trading, the combined assets under management for the four ETFs total about $73.5 million.

Staking Solana may yield higher returns than staking Ether (ETH). The ETFs intend to pass these additional rewards on to investors, potentially reducing the long-term cost of owning the ETF.

Here is a comparison between the various spot Solana ETFs with staking approved in Canada:

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has incorporated staked Solana into its ARKW and ARKF ETFs, with both funds now holding shares of Canada’s 3iQ Solana Staking ETF (SOLQ).

Did you know? Altcoin ETFs track the prices of one or more cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin (BTC). They diversify investor exposure within the cryptocurrency market, as various altcoins exhibit different price behaviors and underlying strengths.

How Canada’s spot Solana ETFs unlock passive income opportunities

Canada offering spot Solana ETFs with staking is an innovative step. Existing SOL investment products, such as the crypto ETFs in Europe and the futures-based ETFs in the US do not offer an opportunity to earn staking yield.

Incorporating yield into a regulated crypto ETF structure addresses a long-standing demand from investors and asset managers interested in proof-of-stake (PoS) networks like Solana and Ethereum.

As staking is central to these tokens’ value, its inclusion enables SOL ETFs to offer a passive income component, making them more appealing to traditional investors seeking income-generating opportunities. The OSC’s approval of the staking feature for spot Solana ETFs may boost SOL’s position. However, staking carries risks, such as potential losses from validator penalties (slashing) or network disruptions, which could affect returns.

Nonetheless, this approval reinforces Canada’s pioneering role in crypto ETF innovation, having launched the world’s first spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2021, ahead of many other jurisdictions. By allowing staking rewards in spot Solana ETFs, Canadian regulators have signalled a growing acceptance of crypto-powered finance.

Did you know? ETFs aren’t without risks. Market fluctuations can lead to losses, and tracking errors can cause an ETF’’s performance to differ from its benchmark index, affecting investor outcome.

What Canada’s launch of Solana ETFs with staking means for pending SEC applications

Canada’s decision provides alternative cryptocurrency investment choices for its investors and may serve as an example for other countries considering spot ETFs for cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin.

Despite a subdued global macroeconomic climate — partly shaped by trade tensions during Donald Trump’s presidency — Canada’s regulators have taken a proactive stance, embracing innovation in the digital asset space. The greenlighting of Solana ETFs with staking reflects a maturing approach to crypto policy and signals confidence in alternative layer-1 networks.

Meanwhile, in the United States, anticipation is building. The launch of Solana futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on March 17, 2025, is seen as a stepping stone toward a US spot ETF. The SEC is currently reviewing 72 crypto-related ETF applications as of April 21, covering a spectrum of assets from major altcoins like XRP (XRP) to memecoins like Dogecoin (DOGE), including proposals for leveraged and derivative products.

As of April 21, 2025, the SEC is reviewing 72 crypto-related ETF applications, including derivatives. The filings range from major cap altcoins to memecoins and include leveraged products and options. The outcome of Canada’s pioneering approach may offer valuable insights to regulators and could potentially influence the SEC’s decisions regarding these filings.

However, the SEC’s stance may differ significantly from Canada’s due to structural and regulatory complexities within the US financial system. Unlike Canada’s more unified regulatory framework, the US divides oversight between multiple agencies — including the SEC, CFTC, and state regulators — creating friction in crypto policymaking.

Canada’s trailblazing move could nonetheless offer a valuable case study for US regulators. As markets await the SEC’s decisions, the key question remains whether Washington will follow Ottawa’s lead — or chart its own course and a slower timeline for non-Bitcoin spot ETFs.

Coin Market

Bitcoiners should be cautious over rally as stablecoin indicator lags: Analyst

Published

2 hours ago

April 23, 2025

Bitcoin’s 12% rally over the week and a surge in related exchange-traded fund inflows have analysts thinking it could soon reach $100,000, but one crypto analyst has said to temper hopes as a key indicator is still giving mixed signals.

“Given that our stablecoin minting indicator has yet to return to high-activity levels, we remain cautious about the sustainability of the current Bitcoin rally,” 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen said in an April 23 markets report.

Stablecoin absence may limit Bitcoin upside

Thielen explained that a measured move from the falling wedge pattern, which traders perceive as a potential bullish reversal signal, shows that Bitcoin (BTC) may reclaim $99,000.

He added, however, that “the absence of strong stablecoin inflows raises questions about follow-through.”

Markus Thielen is watching the stablecoin minting indicator before confirming the Bitcoin uptrend is sustainable. Source: 10x Research

Bitcoin was trading at $93,133 at the time of writing, up 11.42% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap.

Thielen told Cointelegraph that stablecoin inflows “tend to correlate strongly with stickier money, while an increase in futures leverage could simply mean that fast traders are taking advantage of a quick move higher.”

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows surge, a true “demand-led rally”

It comes as spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US posted inflows of $912.7 million on April 22, the highest level since Jan. 17, according to Farside data.

Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph that the inflows suggest “this is a true, demand-led rally. Not just a hot flash of excited futures traders moving price.”

“If the news headlines finally quieten, we could break new highs sooner than everyone thinks. A fast track to $100,000 looks plausible, but things change quickly in a Trump presidency.”

Thielen said if uncertainty continues to decline, “a further acceleration could provide the liquidity needed to support a more sustained rally.”

The crypto market has experienced volatility and broader financial markets since US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs in early February.

However, Trump’s recent comments have traders speculating that he’s softening his stance on the trade war, with some seeing this as bullish for markets.

Thielen said the $95,000 price level is a key resistance level for Bitcoin and a “potential trigger point for short-stop liquidations.”

He said it could push Bitcoin’s price higher if market strength continues.

Magazine: Former Love Island star’s tips on how to go viral in crypto: Van00sa, X Hall of Flame

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Coin Market

Ethereum bounces back as market dominance recovers from all-time low

Published

2 hours ago

April 23, 2025

Ethereum’s price has surged after having been in the doldrums for weeks, helping boost its market share after it hit record lows.

Ether (ETH) has surged almost 15% over the past 24 hours, topping $1,800 on April 23. It has outperformed Bitcoin, which notched a 6% gain, and the wider crypto market, which has climbed almost 5% to reclaim a total market value of $3 trillion.

Ether has now managed to recover almost 30% since its April 9 crash to $1,400, leading some analysts to suggest that the worst may be over for the world’s second-largest crypto asset.

“You can hate Ethereum all you want, but when it has a big day, the entire crypto ecosystem goes up,” crypto trader and analyst “Income Sharks” commented to their 640,000 X followers.

Market analyst “Ash Crypto” said ETH was “about to explode,” drawing comparison from the current chart pattern for Ether to that for Bitcoin’s performance in late 2024.

BTC vs ETH performance and prediction. Source: Ash Crypto

Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at the crypto exchange BTSE, was not conviced Ethereum was moving idependently, and told Cointelegraph that Ether’s gain “was largely due to it tracking the price of Bitcoin and the overall market,” and that that Paul Atkins’ confirmation as chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission had boosted overall market sentiment.

Earlier this month, ETH had fallen back to bear market prices and had seen its market share dwindle amid a wide market downturn marred by fears of a trade war.

On April 22, analyst “Rekt Capital” said that ETH’s market dominance has fallen back to all-time lows but “managed to protect 2019 all-time lows as support.”

ETH dominance fell to its September 2019 low of 7% on April 22, according to TradingView. However, its subsequent price pump has seen that share bounce off this critical support level and return above 7.5% on April 23.

ETH dominance lows. Source: Rekt Capital

Fundamental catalysts supporting the move

10x Research’s Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph that it hasn’t taken much to drive Ethereum higher, as a “heavily shorted market is now experiencing a squeeze.”

Technically, Ethereum was oversold on both daily and weekly timeframes, setting the stage for a rebound, he said.

“With the upcoming upgrade moving to mainnet, there’s also a fundamental catalyst supporting the move.”

Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest