Analysts say Bitcoin (BTC) price could drop to $70,000 within the next ten days as one BTC pricing model suggests that the US-led trade war could upend investors’ risk-asset sentiment.

In his latest X analysis, network economist Timothy Peterson warned that Bitcoin may return to its 2021-era all-time high.

$70,000 is Bitcoin’s “practical bottom”

Bitcoin price expectations continue to deteriorate as the impact of “higher than expected” US trade tariffs hits home.

For Peterson, the outlook now includes an uncomfortable trip down memory lane.

“Bitcoin to $70k in 10 days?” he queried.

An accompanying chart compared Bitcoin bear markets and included Peterson’s Lowest Price Forward (LPF) metric — a historically accurate yardstick for gauging long-term BTC price bottoms.

“While this chart is not a prediction, it does provide data-driven expectations for what Bitcoin could do,” he continued.  

“If it continues to track along the 75th percentile bear market range, then 70k would be the practical bottom.”

Bitcoin bear market comparison with LPF data. Source: Timothy Peterson/X

Peterson noted that the theory ties in with current LPF data, which last month said that BTC/USD was 95% certain to preserve the 2021 highs as support. 

Prior to that, the metric successfully delivered a $10,000 price floor in mid-2020, with Bitcoin never again dropping below it after September that year.

Continuing, Peterson revealed probabilities for April which showed BTC price expectations in a state of flux.

“Bitcoin went from 75% chance of having a positive month to a 75% chance of having a negative month in just 2 days,” he summarized alongside another proprietary chart.

April BTC price expectations. Source: Timothy Peterson/X

Related: Bitcoin sales at $109K all-time high ‘significantly below’ cycle tops — Glassnode

Bitcoin’s current price action is “often what a bottom looks like”

The bearish outlook of Peterson’s model is far from the only bearish warning coming to light this week.

As noted by onchain analytics firm Glassnode, many traders are attempting to shield themselves from further crypto market turmoil.

“Puts are trading at a premium to calls, signaling a spike in demand for downside protection. This skew is most pronounced in short-term maturities – a level of fear not seen since $BTC was in the $20Ks in mid-’23,” it revealed in an X thread on April 4.

Bitcoin options delta skew. Source: Glassnode/X

Glassnode nonetheless acknowledged that while under pressure, current price performance does not constitute a post-tariff capitulation of the sort seen in stocks.

“Despite this, $BTC hasn’t broken down like equities did on recent tariff headlines. That disconnect – rising panic without a price collapse – makes the current options market setup especially notable,” it continued.

“Skew like this usually appears when positioning is one-sided and fear runs high. TLDR: panic is elevated, but price is holding. That’s often what a bottom looks like.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) price dodged the chaotic volatility that crushed equities markets on the April 4 Wall Street open by holding above the $82,000 level.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US stocks notch record losses as analysts predict “long trade war”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed erratic moves on Bitcoin’s lower timeframes as the daily high near $84,700 evaporated as BTC price dropped by $2,500 at the start of the US trading session.

Fears over a prolonged US trade war and subsequent recession fueled market downside, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index both falling another 3.5% after the open.

S&P 500 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In ongoing market coverage, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter described the tariffs as the start of the “World War 3” of trade wars.”

BREAKING: President Trump just now, “WE CAN’T LOSE!!!”

A long trade war is ahead of us. https://t.co/babI1cf5wi pic.twitter.com/6KCsHp0a8v

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 4, 2025

“Two-day losses in the S&P 500 surpass -8% for a total of -$3.5 trillion in market cap. This is the largest 2-day drop since the pandemic in 2020,” it reported.

The Nasdaq 100 made history the day prior, recording its biggest single-day points loss ever.

The latest US jobs data in the form of the March nonfarm payrolls print, which beat expectations, faded into insignificance with markets already panicking.

Market expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve nonetheless edged higher, with the odds for such a move coming at the Fed’s May meeting hitting 40%, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Fed target rate probabilities comparison for May FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Bitcoin clings to support above $80,000

As Bitcoin managed to avoid a major collapse, market commentators sought confirmation of underlying BTC price strength.

Related: Bitcoin sellers ‘dry up’ as weekly exchange inflows near 2-year low

For popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, longer-timeframe cues remained encouraging.

#BTC

Bitcoin is already recovering and on the cusp of filling this recently formed CME Gap$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/ZDvsF6ldCz pic.twitter.com/PSbAESmqnY

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 4, 2025

“Bitcoin is also potentially forming the very early signs of a brand new Exaggerated Bullish Divergence,” he continued, looking at relative strength index (RSI) behavior on the daily chart.

“Double bottom on the price action meanwhile the RSI develops Higher Lows. $82,400 needs to continue holding as support.”

BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Fellow trader Cas Abbe likewise observed comparatively resilient trading on Bitcoin amid the risk-asset rout.

“It didn’t hit a new low yesterday despite stock market having their worst day in 5 years,” he noted to X followers. 

“Historically, BTC always bottoms first before the stock market so expecting $76.5K was the bottom. Now, I’m waiting for a reclaim above $86.5K level for more upward continuation.”

BTC/USDT perpetual futures 1-day chart. Source: Cas Abbe/X

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on BTC price bottom targets now including old all-time highs of $69,000 from 2021.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Opinion by: Matt Mudano, CEO of Arch Labs 

Ethereum is struggling, and decentralized finance (DeFi) is suffering as a result. Layer-2 (L2) solutions have fractured liquidity, making capital inefficient. In search of greener pastures, the community has turned to Solana — only to find a memecoin-driven ecosystem fueled by pump-and-dump schemes, attracting liquidity extractors, and turning the chain into a playground for speculation and fraud.

DeFi needs a reset that returns to first principles and aligns with Satoshi’s original vision of a decentralized financial system. The only network capable of sustaining the next evolution of DeFi isn’t Ethereum or Solana. It’s Bitcoin.

DeFi is struggling on Ethereum 

Ethereum was once the undisputed home of DeFi, but today, it’s clear that the ecosystem is struggling. The network’s roadmap constantly changes, with no clear path toward long-term sustainability.

L2 solutions were supposed to scale Ethereum. Instead, they’ve fractured DeFi into isolated liquidity silos. While L2s have lowered transaction fees, they now compete for liquidity rather than contributing to a unified financial system. The result? A fragmented landscape that makes capital inefficient and DeFi protocols harder to scale.

Ethereum’s proposed solution — chain abstraction — sounds promising in theory but fails in practice. The fundamental issue is a structural misalignment of incentives, and as a result, Ethereum is gradually losing its competitive edge in DeFi.

It’s time to ask: Can DeFi’s future lie in a fragmented Ethereum?

Solana isn’t the answer

With Ethereum losing its competitive edge, many developers and users have turned to Solana. The blockchain has seen an 83% increase in developer activity year-over-year, and its decentralized exchanges (DEXs) have outperformed Ethereum’s for five consecutive months. 

There’s a fundamental problem: Solana’s DeFi growth isn’t built on sustainable financial applications — a memecoin frenzy fuels it.

The recent surge in activity isn’t driven by innovation in decentralized finance but by speculative trades. Following the TRUMP memecoin craze, the total extracted value from Solana’s memecoins ranged between $3.6 billion and $6.6 billion. This isn’t DeFi growth — it’s a liquidity extraction engine where short-term speculators cash in and move on.

Solana has real strengths. Its speed and low transaction costs make it ideal for high-frequency trading, and its ecosystem has made meaningful strides in decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePINs), AI and decentralized science, or DeSci. But the dominance of memecoin speculation has turned the chain into a playground for fraud and pump-and-dump schemes. That’s not the foundation DeFi needs.

Solana isn’t the answer if the goal is to build a lasting financial system.

Bitcoin DeFi is thriving

It’s time to return to first principles and build DeFi on the original blockchain: Bitcoin — the most trusted, decentralized network backed by the soundest money in the digital economy.

This is not just theoretical. Bitcoin DeFi is already experiencing explosive growth. Consider the numbers: Total value locked (TVL) in Bitcoin DeFi surged from $300 million in early 2024 to $5.4 billion as of Feb. 28, 2025 — a staggering 1,700% increase. The Bitcoin staking sector is dominating, with protocols like Babylon ($4.68 billion TVL), Lombard ($1.59 billion) and SolvBTC ($715 million) leading the charge. This demonstrates the growing demand for Bitcoin to become a productive asset rather than a passive store of value.

Recent: Bitcoin DeFi takes center stage

Bitcoin-native DeFi isn’t simply copying Ethereum’s playbook — it’s pioneering new financial models. Advancements in the space have introduced dual staking, allowing users to stake Bitcoin (BTC) alongside native tokens to enhance security and earn yields. Meanwhile, novel approaches to tokenizing Bitcoin’s hashrate turn mining power into collateral for lending, borrowing and staking, further expanding Bitcoin’s financial utility.

In addition, Ordinals and BRC-20 tokens have driven record-high transaction activity, with inscriptions reaching 66.7 million and generating $420 million in fees — highlighting the growing demand for tokenized assets on Bitcoin.

It is clear that Bitcoin is no longer just digital gold — it’s becoming the foundation for the next phase of decentralized finance.

The future of DeFi is on Bitcoin

The future of DeFi lies with Bitcoin, where incentives align with long-term value creation. Unlike Ethereum’s fragmented model and Solana’s speculative economy, Bitcoin-based DeFi is built on institutional-grade liquidity and sustainable growth.

As the largest and most liquid crypto asset, Bitcoin boasts a $1.7 trillion market cap and $94 billion in exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings. Even a fraction of this liquidity migrating into DeFi would be a game-changer. Bitcoin holds over $1 trillion in untapped liquidity and continues to attract strong interest from institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds, with governments already exploring it as a potential reserve asset.

Several projects are already building on Bitcoin, building a sustainable ecosystem where users can hold the most trusted digital asset while making it productive through DeFi mechanisms. 

Ethereum had its moment. Solana had its hype. It’s Bitcoin’s turn to actualize Satoshi’s original vision of a decentralized financial system.

Opinion by: Matt Mudano, CEO of Arch Labs.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.