Bitcoin (BTC) sits in one of its least bullish phases since January 2023. According to Bitcoin’s “bull score index,” investor sentiment is showing its lowest reading in two years. 

Bitcoin bull score index. Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant’s “Crypto Weekly Report” newsletter explained that “bull score index” readings that sit below 40 for extended periods increase the likelihood of a bear market. The bull score remained above 40 throughout 2024, only dipping below this threshold in February 2025, as identified in the chart above. 

However, over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin price has displayed resilience when compared against the massive losses seen in the US stock market. On April 3, Bitcoin closed the day with a green candle, while the S&P 500 was down 4.5%, a historic first.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones extended their decline on April 4, dropping 3.87% and 3.44%, respectively, while Bitcoin held steady near the breakeven point.

Related: Arthur Hayes loves tariffs as printed money pain is good for Bitcoin

Is Bitcoin near a risk-on phase?

Data from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin’s Value Days Destroyed (VDD) metric currently sits around 0.72, suggesting that Bitcoin price is in a transitional phase. Since 2023, such periods have preceded either price consolidation or renewed accumulation before a bullish breakout.

Bitcoin value days destroyed. Source: CryptoQuant

The Bitcoin VDD metric tracks the movement of long-term held coins, and it has signaled a notable market trend since late 2024. The metric peaked at 2.27 on Dec. 12, signaling aggressive profit-taking and this dynamic matched the highs seen in 2021 and 2017. However, VDD dropped to 0.65 in April, reflecting a cooling-off period where profit-taking has subsided. 

This opens the possibility of a “risk-on” market for Bitcoin. In financial terms, a “risk-on” scenario occurs when investors embrace higher-risk assets like cryptocurrencies, often driven by optimism and mean reversions in trends.

Amid ongoing market uncertainty that has been fueled by the US-led trade war, Bitcoin could unexpectedly gain from these tense conditions.

Speaking on Bitcoin and the crypto market’s potential as a hedge against traditional market volatility, crypto trader Jackis said, 

“A reminder, this is not a crypto-driven drop but an overall risk-on, tariff, trade war-driven drop. While all of that is unfolding, it seems that crypto has likely undergone most of its downside already and has been lately absorbing all of the selling well.”

Similarly, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index also exhibited a “fear” category with a score of 28 on April 4. The index registered an “extreme fear” score of 25 on April 3, suggesting that the current price may present a compelling buying opportunity.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: alternative.me

Related: 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4% as DXY softens — Is it time to buy the Bitcoin price dip?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Analysts say Bitcoin (BTC) price could drop to $70,000 within the next ten days as one BTC pricing model suggests that the US-led trade war could upend investors’ risk-asset sentiment.

In his latest X analysis, network economist Timothy Peterson warned that Bitcoin may return to its 2021-era all-time high.

$70,000 is Bitcoin’s “practical bottom”

Bitcoin price expectations continue to deteriorate as the impact of “higher than expected” US trade tariffs hits home.

For Peterson, the outlook now includes an uncomfortable trip down memory lane.

“Bitcoin to $70k in 10 days?” he queried.

An accompanying chart compared Bitcoin bear markets and included Peterson’s Lowest Price Forward (LPF) metric — a historically accurate yardstick for gauging long-term BTC price bottoms.

“While this chart is not a prediction, it does provide data-driven expectations for what Bitcoin could do,” he continued.  

“If it continues to track along the 75th percentile bear market range, then 70k would be the practical bottom.”

Bitcoin bear market comparison with LPF data. Source: Timothy Peterson/X

Peterson noted that the theory ties in with current LPF data, which last month said that BTC/USD was 95% certain to preserve the 2021 highs as support. 

Prior to that, the metric successfully delivered a $10,000 price floor in mid-2020, with Bitcoin never again dropping below it after September that year.

Continuing, Peterson revealed probabilities for April which showed BTC price expectations in a state of flux.

“Bitcoin went from 75% chance of having a positive month to a 75% chance of having a negative month in just 2 days,” he summarized alongside another proprietary chart.

April BTC price expectations. Source: Timothy Peterson/X

Related: Bitcoin sales at $109K all-time high ‘significantly below’ cycle tops — Glassnode

Bitcoin’s current price action is “often what a bottom looks like”

The bearish outlook of Peterson’s model is far from the only bearish warning coming to light this week.

As noted by onchain analytics firm Glassnode, many traders are attempting to shield themselves from further crypto market turmoil.

“Puts are trading at a premium to calls, signaling a spike in demand for downside protection. This skew is most pronounced in short-term maturities – a level of fear not seen since $BTC was in the $20Ks in mid-’23,” it revealed in an X thread on April 4.

Bitcoin options delta skew. Source: Glassnode/X

Glassnode nonetheless acknowledged that while under pressure, current price performance does not constitute a post-tariff capitulation of the sort seen in stocks.

“Despite this, $BTC hasn’t broken down like equities did on recent tariff headlines. That disconnect – rising panic without a price collapse – makes the current options market setup especially notable,” it continued.

“Skew like this usually appears when positioning is one-sided and fear runs high. TLDR: panic is elevated, but price is holding. That’s often what a bottom looks like.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) price dodged the chaotic volatility that crushed equities markets on the April 4 Wall Street open by holding above the $82,000 level.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US stocks notch record losses as analysts predict “long trade war”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed erratic moves on Bitcoin’s lower timeframes as the daily high near $84,700 evaporated as BTC price dropped by $2,500 at the start of the US trading session.

Fears over a prolonged US trade war and subsequent recession fueled market downside, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index both falling another 3.5% after the open.

S&P 500 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In ongoing market coverage, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter described the tariffs as the start of the “World War 3” of trade wars.”

BREAKING: President Trump just now, “WE CAN’T LOSE!!!”

A long trade war is ahead of us. https://t.co/babI1cf5wi pic.twitter.com/6KCsHp0a8v

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 4, 2025

“Two-day losses in the S&P 500 surpass -8% for a total of -$3.5 trillion in market cap. This is the largest 2-day drop since the pandemic in 2020,” it reported.

The Nasdaq 100 made history the day prior, recording its biggest single-day points loss ever.

The latest US jobs data in the form of the March nonfarm payrolls print, which beat expectations, faded into insignificance with markets already panicking.

Market expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve nonetheless edged higher, with the odds for such a move coming at the Fed’s May meeting hitting 40%, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Fed target rate probabilities comparison for May FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Bitcoin clings to support above $80,000

As Bitcoin managed to avoid a major collapse, market commentators sought confirmation of underlying BTC price strength.

Related: Bitcoin sellers ‘dry up’ as weekly exchange inflows near 2-year low

For popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, longer-timeframe cues remained encouraging.

#BTC

Bitcoin is already recovering and on the cusp of filling this recently formed CME Gap$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/ZDvsF6ldCz pic.twitter.com/PSbAESmqnY

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 4, 2025

“Bitcoin is also potentially forming the very early signs of a brand new Exaggerated Bullish Divergence,” he continued, looking at relative strength index (RSI) behavior on the daily chart.

“Double bottom on the price action meanwhile the RSI develops Higher Lows. $82,400 needs to continue holding as support.”

BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Fellow trader Cas Abbe likewise observed comparatively resilient trading on Bitcoin amid the risk-asset rout.

“It didn’t hit a new low yesterday despite stock market having their worst day in 5 years,” he noted to X followers. 

“Historically, BTC always bottoms first before the stock market so expecting $76.5K was the bottom. Now, I’m waiting for a reclaim above $86.5K level for more upward continuation.”

BTC/USDT perpetual futures 1-day chart. Source: Cas Abbe/X

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on BTC price bottom targets now including old all-time highs of $69,000 from 2021.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.