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XRP ETF ‘obvious’ as Polymarket bettors up approval odds to 85%

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Crypto community members are growing more optimistic about an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval following the resolution of a multi-year legal battle between Ripple and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

On March 19, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced the case had concluded. In an X post, the Ripple executive said the SEC will drop its appeal against Ripple, ending the $1.3 billion unregistered securities suit that started in December 2020. 

Following the development, Nate Geraci, president of the advisory firm ETF Store, said on X that the approval of an XRP (XRP) ETF is next. Geraci said it was “obvious” that it’s only a “matter of time” before the SEC approves an XRP ETF. 

The executive predicted that asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity would be involved in offering the asset. 

Polymarket punters give 86% odds to XRP ETF approval in 2025

Aside from Geraci, users on the crypto betting platform Polymarket also expect approval for an XRP ETF in 2025. On March 26, Polymarket gave an 86% chance that an XRP-based ETF product would be approved this year. 

The bet will resolve if an XRP ETF receives approval from the SEC by Dec. 31. At the time of writing, the betting market had a volume of $55,000. 

Polymarket shows an 86% chance that a Ripple ETF will be approved in 2025. Source: Polymarket

However, users only give a 42% chance that an XRP ETF will be approved before July 31.

Despite being a gambling site, Polymarket users’ predictions have historically been very accurate. A Dune Analytics dashboard studying the accuracy of Polymarket bets showed that the platform had been accurate by over 90% a month before betting markets were resolved. 

Related: SEC plans 4 more crypto roundtables on trading, custody, tokenization, DeFi

XRP price only surged by 5% as the SEC battle ends

Despite being a huge milestone, the end of the multi-year legal battle between Ripple and the SEC failed to move the markets significantly. On March 19, XRP traded at $2.32, according to CoinGecko. At the time of writing, the asset hovers at around $2.44, a 5% increase. 

On March 21, analysts said the new development had already been priced in. Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen, previously told Cointelegraph that the resolution had been widely expected. 

Magazine: Memecoins are ded — But Solana ‘100x better’ despite revenue plunge

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Ethereum price may have bottomed, but pro traders show little interest in buying ETH

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Ether (ETH) price has risen 6.4% from its March 30 $1,768 low but the altcoin has struggled to regain the $2,000 level. Some traders believe that the downturn is partially connected to the deflating memecoin market, which, while not exclusive to the Ethereum network, significantly reduced activity across the decentralized applications (DApps) ecosystem and broader crypto space.

Ether is currently 44% down year-to-date, and derivatives metrics indicate that traders are far from bullish and show little confidence in a strong recovery in the near term. Proof of this can be found in the premium on Ether futures relative to spot markets. 

While the figure rose to 4% on April 2, up from 2% on March 31, it is still below the neutral 5% threshold. This data indicates that Ether investors remain far from turning bullish, despite the strengthening support at the $1,800 price level.

Ether 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

To assess whether whales and market makers lack confidence in Ether’s performance, one should analyze the ETH options market. Under neutral conditions, the 25% delta skew should be balanced between call (buy) and put (sell) options, typically ranging from -6% to 6%.

Deribit ETH 30-day options 25% delta skew (put-call). Source: Laevitas.ch

The Ether delta skew metric has retreated from the 9% level seen on March 31, yet the current 7% reading suggests that risk-aversion sentiment remains strong. The rising cost of hedging indicates that whales fear further downside for ETH, suggesting it may take longer for traders to regain confidence.

Ethereum adoption remains strong despite DApps revenue drop

It’s easy to attribute much of Ether’s price decline to the 49% drop in Ethereum DApps revenue between January and March. However, while the reduced network activity limits the influx of new users and dampens overall demand for ETH, its advantages over traditional financial markets and its dominance in decentralized finance (DeFi) remain unchanged.

The stablecoin holdings on Ethereum are nearing an all-time high of $124.5 billion, and Ethereum is still the undisputed leader, with $49 billion in total value locked (TVL). This data suggests significant potential for ETH adoption, particularly as new use cases emerge, such as structured products and more complex DeFi applications leveraging synthetic assets.

Despite the early struggles of metaverse applications, declining interest in memecoins, and the sharp downturn in non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace activity, the Ethereum network continues to expand.

ETH funding rate neutral as ETFs dampen retail trading enthusiasm

Instead of focusing solely on how professional traders are positioned, it is also valuable to assess retail investors’ sentiment. Perpetual futures (inverse swaps) typically follow spot prices closely, as leverage imbalances are corrected through a fee known as the funding rate, which is charged every eight hours. In neutral markets, this rate fluctuates between 0.1% and 0.3% over a seven-day period.

Ether 8-hour perpetual futures funding rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

The ETH perpetual funding rate has been neutral since March 31, indicating that retail traders are not attempting to catch a falling knife. A key factor behind this lack of enthusiasm is the spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which saw $37 million in net outflows over the past two weeks.

While derivatives data is often backward-looking and does not necessarily signal further ETH price declines, sentiment could shift quickly given the positive momentum from the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial investment in ETH and Eric Trump’s vocal support for Ether. For the time being, professional traders and retail investors remain cautious about ETH’s price outlook.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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DoubleZero protocol announces validator token sale

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The DoubleZero Protocol, a blockchain infrastructure network aiming to multiply speeds and efficiency for distributed networks, announced a validator token sale to sell token-purchase agreements for its native token to prospective validators.

Applications for the sale will be accepted April 2-10 through the CoinList platform, marking its first public token sale in the United States since 2019. The round is only available to accredited investors.

According to the protocol, only validators currently serving the high-throughput Solana, Celestia, Sui, Aptos, and Avalanche networks are eligible to apply.

Interested parties are invited to submit bids declaring a per-unit token price and maximum budgets, which will be aggregated to determine the final sale price offered to the participating validators.

A diagram of the DoubleZero validator funding round process. Source: CoinList

In a statement to Cointelegraph, Austin Federa, co-founder of the Double Zero protocol and former Strategy lead at the Solana Foundation, said:

“The DoubleZero CoinList sale is a first-of-its-kind opportunity for the validators who are already securing the most performant and distributed blockchains. It opens access to infrastructure that will power the next generation of distributed systems.”

“This industry has seen huge investment and innovation at the top of the stack — it is time to revolutionize the physical infrastructure layer powering high-performance distributed systems,” Federa said in the statement.

The token-purchase agreement comes amid a recent uptick in capital fundraising from crypto firms and crypto venture capitalists — suggesting that the market has room to grow in 2025.

Related: Crypto VC giant targets $1B for new funds, expects oversubscription — Report

DoubleZero protocol targets mainnet launch in the second half of 2025

The DoubleZero Protocol is aiming to launch its mainnet during the second half of 2025 following a successful $28 million fundraising round completed in March.

Crypto venture capital firms Multicoin Capital and Dragonfly Capital led the most recent fundraising round.

First page of the DoubleZero Protocol white paper. Source: DoubleZero

DoubleZero aims to increase the speed and communication of blockchain networks by using a dedicated network of fiber optics to provide the physical infrastructure for high-speed, low-latency blockchain connectivity.

The focus on a dedicated fiber optic network for higher speeds is similar to the shift from dial-up internet that used 56K modems operating through 20th-century telecommunication infrastructure to broadband systems in the early 2000s.

Magazine: Is measuring blockchain transactions per second (TPS) stupid in 2024? Big Questions

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West Virginia's BTC reserve bill is 'freedom' from a CBDC — State Senator

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West Virginia’s Bitcoin (BTC) strategic reserve bill would give the state more sovereignty from the federal government and freedom from a potential central bank digital currency (CBDC), State Senator Chris Rose told Cointelegraph in an exclusive interview.

“You hear these rumors that there are people at the federal government that will want to have a central bank digital currency,” Rose said. “And people don’t want that. People want decentralized currency. They want freedom.”

The bill, introduced in February, seeks to allow the state treasury to invest up to 10% of public funds in precious metals like gold and silver, stablecoins, or any digital asset that has had a $750 million market capitalization or higher over the last 12 months. Currently, the only digital asset with such a market cap is Bitcoin.

West Virginia State Senator Chris Rose. Source: Cointelegraph

Rose, the bill’s sponsor, said that the reason they decided on the market cap requirement was to allow the state to have exposure to cryptocurrency, but not to get trapped “in any things like memecoins.”

Adopting Bitcoin on the state level would “give us a little more state sovereignty,” Rose added. “And I think that’s one reason why you see a lot of people who normally buy [Bitcoin] for themselves want to see their state government do the same.”

He added that a 10% allocation of state funds would be a “good way to introduce [Bitcoin] to the state” while avoiding any fear from people who don’t understand digital assets. “It’s a good way to cap that where they feel comfortable, but also give us at least a decent exposure as well.”

Bitcoin: “a very powerful” investment and freedom tool

Rose said that one of the roadblocks to getting the bill passed is fear, in particular among those who don’t understand cryptocurrency. “Just like any other state, we have people who understand it. We also have people that don’t understand it, and people are always afraid of what they don’t know.”

He added that “once they understand it, they realize it’s a very powerful investment tool and freedom tool for every one of us to adopt.”

Excerpt of West Virginia Bitcoin reserve bill. Source: West Virginia Legislature

West Virginia Governor Patrick Morrisey, who has envisioned a future state economy powered by crypto and other tech, won’t be a roadblock, Rose said. And the state treasurer, whom Rose consulted before introducing the bill, won’t either.

However, according to WVNews, a West Virginia publication, some lawmakers and financial experts remain skeptical. Investing state funds into Bitcoin may be risky due to the asset’s volatility and price swings, which can cause financial instability and make Bitcoin a controversial choice for state investments.

Although Bitcoin strategic reserve bills have been popping up in state legislatures around the United States, some bills have failed to pass or have scrapped key provisions, including some of those in traditionally conservative states.

Currently, 47 strategic Bitcoin reserve bills have been introduced in 26 states according to Bitcoin Laws. While, in most of the states, the bills have only been introduced or referred to committees, some have made headway in three: Arizona, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Related: Texas Senate passes Bitcoin strategic reserve bill

Rose clarified that the 10% of state funds allocated to precious metals, stablecoins, or Bitcoin would be sourced from two key areas.

“It would be the assets under the pensions fund and under the severance tax fund,” Rose said. “They would be able to divest some of those ETF funds into these assets. We wanted to keep it separate from the petty cash fund, which is day-to-day, just paying the bills of the state. We wanted to keep it to our longer-term assets,” he added.

Magazine: X Hall of Flame, Benjamin Cowen: Bitcoin dominance will fall in 2025

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