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Ethereum’s (ETH) path back to $2.5K depends on 3 key factors

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Ether (ETH) price reclaimed the $2,000 support on March 24 but remains 18% below the $2,500 level seen three weeks ago. Data shows Ether has underperformed the altcoin market by 14% over the past 30 days, leading traders to question whether the altcoin can regain bullish momentum and which factors might drive a trend reversal.

Ether/USD (left) vs. total altcoin capitalization, USD (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Ether appears well-positioned to attract institutional demand and significantly reduce the FUD that has limited its upside potential. Critics have long argued that the Ethereum ecosystem lags behind competitors in overall user experience and still offers limited base-layer scalability, which has negatively impacted network fees and transaction efficiency. 

Will the Ethereum Pectra upgrade impact ETH price?

Many of the Ethereum network’s challenges are expected to be addressed in the upcoming Pectra network upgrade, scheduled for late April or early June. Among the proposed changes is a doubling of the data that can be included in each block, which should help lower fees for rollups and privacy-focused mechanisms. Additionally, the cost of call data will increase, encouraging developers to adopt blobs—a more efficient method for data storage.

Another notable improvement in the upcoming upgrade is the introduction of smart accounts, which allow wallets to function like smart contracts during transactions. This enables gas fee sponsorship, passkey authentication, and batch transactions. Additionally, several other enhancements focus on optimizing staking deposits and withdrawals, providing greater flexibility, and extending block history for smart contracts that rely on past data.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, set a $5,000 price target for ETH on March 25, stating that it should significantly outperform competitor Solana (SOL).

Source: CryptoHayes

Regardless of the rationale behind Arthur’s price prediction, ETH options traders do not share the same bullish sentiment. The Sept. 26 call (buy) option with a $5,000 strike price costs only $35.40, implying extremely low odds. However, Ethereum remains the undisputed leader in smart contract deposits and is the only altcoin with a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US, currently holding $8.9 billion in assets under management.

Ethereum TVL growth and reduced ETH supply on exchanges

Ethereum’s network boasts a total value locked (TVL) of $52.5 billion, significantly surpassing Solana’s $7 billion. More importantly, deposits on the Ethereum network grew 10% over the past 30 days, reaching 25.4 million ETH, while Solana saw an 8% decline over the same period. Notable highlights on Ethereum include Sky (formerly Maker), which saw a 17% increase in deposits, and Ethena, whose TVL surged by 38% in 30 days.

Ether balance on exchanges, ETH. Source: Glassnode

The Ether supply on exchanges stood at 16.9 million ETH on March 25, just 3.5% above its five-year low of 16.32 million ETH, according to Glassnode data. This trend suggests that investors are withdrawing from exchanges, signaling a long-term capital commitment. Similarly, flows into spot Ether ETFs remained relatively muted on March 24 and March 25, in contrast to the $316 million in net outflows accumulated since March 10.

Related: Ethereum devs prepare final Pectra test before mainnet launch

Lastly, the Ethereum network is gaining momentum in the Real World Asset (RWA) industry, particularly after the BlackRock BUILD fund surpassed $1.5 billion in capitalization. The Ethereum ecosystem, including its layer-2 scalability solutions, accounts for over 80% of this market, according to RWA.XYZ data, underscoring Ethereum’s dominance in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space.

Ether’s price drop below $1,900 on March 10 likely reflected overly bearish expectations. However, the tide appears to have turned as the Ethereum network demonstrated resilience, and traders continued to withdraw from exchanges, setting the stage for a potential rally toward $2,500.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Coin Market

DoubleZero protocol announces validator token sale

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The DoubleZero Protocol, a blockchain infrastructure network aiming to multiply speeds and efficiency for distributed networks, announced a validator token sale to sell token-purchase agreements for its native token to prospective validators.

Applications for the sale will be accepted April 2-10 through the CoinList platform, marking its first public token sale in the United States since 2019. The round is only available to accredited investors.

According to the protocol, only validators currently serving the high-throughput Solana, Celestia, Sui, Aptos, and Avalanche networks are eligible to apply.

Interested parties are invited to submit bids declaring a per-unit token price and maximum budgets, which will be aggregated to determine the final sale price offered to the participating validators.

A diagram of the DoubleZero validator funding round process. Source: CoinList

In a statement to Cointelegraph, Austin Federa, co-founder of the Double Zero protocol and former Strategy lead at the Solana Foundation, said:

“The DoubleZero CoinList sale is a first-of-its-kind opportunity for the validators who are already securing the most performant and distributed blockchains. It opens access to infrastructure that will power the next generation of distributed systems.”

“This industry has seen huge investment and innovation at the top of the stack — it is time to revolutionize the physical infrastructure layer powering high-performance distributed systems,” Federa said in the statement.

The token-purchase agreement comes amid a recent uptick in capital fundraising from crypto firms and crypto venture capitalists — suggesting that the market has room to grow in 2025.

Related: Crypto VC giant targets $1B for new funds, expects oversubscription — Report

DoubleZero protocol targets mainnet launch in the second half of 2025

The DoubleZero Protocol is aiming to launch its mainnet during the second half of 2025 following a successful $28 million fundraising round completed in March.

Crypto venture capital firms Multicoin Capital and Dragonfly Capital led the most recent fundraising round.

First page of the DoubleZero Protocol white paper. Source: DoubleZero

DoubleZero aims to increase the speed and communication of blockchain networks by using a dedicated network of fiber optics to provide the physical infrastructure for high-speed, low-latency blockchain connectivity.

The focus on a dedicated fiber optic network for higher speeds is similar to the shift from dial-up internet that used 56K modems operating through 20th-century telecommunication infrastructure to broadband systems in the early 2000s.

Magazine: Is measuring blockchain transactions per second (TPS) stupid in 2024? Big Questions

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West Virginia's BTC reserve bill is 'freedom' from a CBDC — State Senator

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West Virginia’s Bitcoin (BTC) strategic reserve bill would give the state more sovereignty from the federal government and freedom from a potential central bank digital currency (CBDC), State Senator Chris Rose told Cointelegraph in an exclusive interview.

“You hear these rumors that there are people at the federal government that will want to have a central bank digital currency,” Rose said. “And people don’t want that. People want decentralized currency. They want freedom.”

The bill, introduced in February, seeks to allow the state treasury to invest up to 10% of public funds in precious metals like gold and silver, stablecoins, or any digital asset that has had a $750 million market capitalization or higher over the last 12 months. Currently, the only digital asset with such a market cap is Bitcoin.

West Virginia State Senator Chris Rose. Source: Cointelegraph

Rose, the bill’s sponsor, said that the reason they decided on the market cap requirement was to allow the state to have exposure to cryptocurrency, but not to get trapped “in any things like memecoins.”

Adopting Bitcoin on the state level would “give us a little more state sovereignty,” Rose added. “And I think that’s one reason why you see a lot of people who normally buy [Bitcoin] for themselves want to see their state government do the same.”

He added that a 10% allocation of state funds would be a “good way to introduce [Bitcoin] to the state” while avoiding any fear from people who don’t understand digital assets. “It’s a good way to cap that where they feel comfortable, but also give us at least a decent exposure as well.”

Bitcoin: “a very powerful” investment and freedom tool

Rose said that one of the roadblocks to getting the bill passed is fear, in particular among those who don’t understand cryptocurrency. “Just like any other state, we have people who understand it. We also have people that don’t understand it, and people are always afraid of what they don’t know.”

He added that “once they understand it, they realize it’s a very powerful investment tool and freedom tool for every one of us to adopt.”

Excerpt of West Virginia Bitcoin reserve bill. Source: West Virginia Legislature

West Virginia Governor Patrick Morrisey, who has envisioned a future state economy powered by crypto and other tech, won’t be a roadblock, Rose said. And the state treasurer, whom Rose consulted before introducing the bill, won’t either.

However, according to WVNews, a West Virginia publication, some lawmakers and financial experts remain skeptical. Investing state funds into Bitcoin may be risky due to the asset’s volatility and price swings, which can cause financial instability and make Bitcoin a controversial choice for state investments.

Although Bitcoin strategic reserve bills have been popping up in state legislatures around the United States, some bills have failed to pass or have scrapped key provisions, including some of those in traditionally conservative states.

Currently, 47 strategic Bitcoin reserve bills have been introduced in 26 states according to Bitcoin Laws. While, in most of the states, the bills have only been introduced or referred to committees, some have made headway in three: Arizona, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Related: Texas Senate passes Bitcoin strategic reserve bill

Rose clarified that the 10% of state funds allocated to precious metals, stablecoins, or Bitcoin would be sourced from two key areas.

“It would be the assets under the pensions fund and under the severance tax fund,” Rose said. “They would be able to divest some of those ETF funds into these assets. We wanted to keep it separate from the petty cash fund, which is day-to-day, just paying the bills of the state. We wanted to keep it to our longer-term assets,” he added.

Magazine: X Hall of Flame, Benjamin Cowen: Bitcoin dominance will fall in 2025

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Coin Market

Bitcoin rally to $88.5K obliterates bears as spot volumes soar — Will a tariff war stop the party?

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Bitcoin price caught an unexpected bid by rallying to a session high at $88,500, but will the price gains be capped at a multimonth overhead resistance that is aligned with the 50-day moving average? 

Key points:

Bitcoin extended its April. 1 gains as news that the Trump administration had not finalized its “Liberation Day” tariffs emerged. 

Israel, Mexico and India have already rolled back their tariffs on US imports or suggested that they will not do “tit for tat” tariffs in response to the expected April 2 US tariffs. 

Bitcoin (BTC) trades slightly below a 3-month descending trendline resistance where the price has consistentlybeen rejected during past rallies. 

Total market liquidations over the past 12-hour trading period have reached $145 million, with $69.4 million of the figure being Bitcoin shorts.  

Data from Kingfisher, CoinGlass and Velo show short liquidations playing a role in today’s push above $88,500. 

Crypto market liquidations in the past 12-hours. Source. CoinGlass 

For the past few months, Bitcoin price has struggled to hold the gains accrued from rallies driven by leverage. Looking beyond futures markets, there are some positives that suggest that the market structure is slowly transitioning from bearish to bullish. 

As shown in the chart below, recent rallies were accompanied by a strong bid in the spot market and the return of the Coinbase Pro premium, leading some analysts to speculate buying from Strategy and other companies focused on building Bitcoin reserves. 

Coinbase premium index. Source: CryptoQuant

Over the last two weeks, GameStop, MARA, Metaplanet and Strategy all announced plans to buy more Bitcoin, with GameStop being on the verge of purchasing and Strategy actively adding to its BTC position. 

GameStop secures $1.5B for possible BTC purchase. Source: Arkham

In the short-term, sustained spot buy volume at Binance and Coinbase Pro, and the crypto and equities markets’ response to President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs are likely to be the most impactful factors that will influence the current bullish momentum seen in Bitcoin price.  

Related: Bitcoin price on verge of breaking 10-week downtrend — Is $90K BTC next?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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