Bitcoin looks set for a bearish open to mark the last trading day of March and possibly the weakest Q1 performance since 2018. 

Crypto and stock traders’ anxiety over US President Donald Trump’s fresh wave of 25% tariffs on cars imported to the US, the threat of tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry is clearly reflected in BTC’s current downside. Trump’s frequent references to April 2 being “Liberation Day” (the day when an apparent number for “reciprocal tariffs” will be assigned to various countries) also has shaken traders’ confidence. 

At the time of publishing, stock futures have already slipped into the red, with the DOW futures shedding 206 points and the S&P 500 futures down 0.56%. As expected, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price moved in tandem with equities markets, slipping to $81,656 on March 30 and locking in a 7th consecutive day of lower lows. 

US futures markets performance on March 30. Source: X / Spencer Hakimian

After a tumultuous quarter, equities markets look set to close down for the month, with the S&P 500 down 6.3% and the Nasdaq and DOW each registering 8.1% and 5.2% respective losses. 

Bitcoin’s steady decline is a combination of weak demand in spot markets and clear derisking from traders who are reluctant to open fresh positions in BTC’s futures markets. 

Last week’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data showed a higher-than-anticipated uptick in inflation, and March consumer confidence data from the Conference Board showed the monthly confidence index — a metric that reflects respondents’ expectation for income, business and job prospects — at a 12-year low. 

Consumer confidence present situation and future expectations data. Source: The Conference Board

Related: Bitcoin bottom ‘likely’ at $80K, opening door for TON, CRO, MNT and RENDER to rally

Recession odds also continue to rise, with a recent report from Goldman Sachs raising the 12-month recession probability from their previous 20% to 35%. In the report, Goldman Sachs’ analysts said, 

“The upgrade from our previous 20% estimate reflects our lower growth beeline, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies.”    

US recession odds raised by Goldman Sachs. Source: X / Peter Berezin

Does Bitcoin’s downside have a silver lining? 

While many crypto analysts have publicly revised their bullish six-figure-plus BTC price estimates and now forecast a revisit to Bitcoin’s swing lows in the mid $70,000 range, institutional investors continue to buy, and net inflows to the spot ETFs remain positive. 

On March 30, Strategy CEO Michael Saylor took to X and posted his famous orange dots Bitcoin chart, saying, 

“Needs even more Orange.” 

Strategy Bitcoin purchases. Source: X / Michael Saylor 

Data from CryptoQuant also shows Bitcoin inflows to accumulation addresses continuing to rise throughout the month. 

BTC: Inflows to accumulation addresses. Source: CryptoQuant 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are trying to start a recovery but selling at higher levels continues to disarm each attack of the range highs. Veteran trader Peter Brandt said in a post on X that Bitcoin has broken down from a bear wedge pattern, giving it a target objective of $65,635.

The current macroeconomic environment and the fears of a prolonged trade war have created a 40% possibility of a recession in 2025, according to Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin. Puckrin said that a recession and the current macroeconomic uncertainty could put pressure on risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

However, not everyone is bearish on Bitcoin in the near term. Analyst Stockmoney Lizards said in a post on X that Bitcoin’s local bottom could be between $82,000 and $80,000. The analyst anticipates Bitcoin to make a reversal next week.

If Bitcoin starts a recovery, select altcoins are likely to move higher. Let’s look at the charts of the top cryptocurrencies that are showing a bullish setup.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin’s failure to rise above the resistance line may have tempted selling by traders. The bears will try to pull the price toward the critical $80,000 support.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day exponential moving average ($85,253) is flattish, and the relative strength index (RSI) is just below the midpoint, giving a slight advantage to the bears. If the $80,000 support cracks, the BTC/USDT pair could plunge to $76,606.

On the other hand, if the price turns up from the current level or $80,000, it improves the prospects of a rally above the resistance line. If that happens, it suggests an end of the corrective phase. The pair could rally to $95,000 and then to $100,000.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-EMA has turned down on the 4-hour chart, and the RSI is in the negative territory, signaling that bears are in control. If the price turns down from the current level, the pair could slide to $80,000 and then to $78,000.

Buyers will have to drive and maintain the price above the 20-EMA to signal strength. The pair may then rise to the resistance line, which is a critical resistance to watch out for. The bullish momentum is expected to begin on a break above $89,000.

Toncoin price analysis

Toncoin (TON) bounced off the moving averages on March 30, indicating a positive sentiment.

TON/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($3.58) and the RSI in the positive zone indicate advantage to buyers. The bulls will try to strengthen their position by pushing the price above $4.14. If they can pull it off, the TON/USDT pair may start a new upmove to $5 and, after that, to $5.65.

Sellers will have to yank the price below the $3.3 support to seize control. Such a move signals that bears remain sellers on rallies. The pair could plummet to $2.81 and eventually to $2.64.

TON/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The pair turned up from the uptrend line, indicating that the bulls are viewing the dips as a buying opportunity. The pair could reach the overhead resistance of $4.14, where the bears are expected to step in. However, if buyers pierce the resistance, the pair could start the next leg of the upmove toward $5.

The bears will be back in the driver’s seat if they sink and sustain the price below the uptrend line. The pair may then drop to $3.28.

Cronos price analysis

Cronos (CRO) broke out of the moving averages on March 24, signaling that the downtrend could have ended.

CRO/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The CRO/USDT pair is facing selling near $0.12, but a positive sign in favor of the bulls is that they have not allowed the price to sustain below the $0.10 support. This suggests that buyers are trying to form a higher low. If the bulls shove the price above $0.12, the pair could rally toward $0.14.

Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will try to sink the price below the moving averages and trap the aggressive bulls.

CRO/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The pair has been range-bound between $0.10 and $0.12, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears. The 20-EMA is sloping up gradually, and the RSI is just above the midpoint, giving a slight edge to the bulls. A break and close above $0.11 increases the likelihood of a rally above $0.12.

Sellers will be back in the driver’s seat if they sink and maintain the price below the 50-SMA. That could pull the pair down to $0.08.

Related: Is XRP price around $2 an opportunity or the bull market’s end? Analysts weigh in

Mantle price analysis

Mantle (MNT) failed to rise above the 50-day SMA ($0.84) in the past few days, but a positive sign is that the bulls are trying to hold the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.80).

MNT/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA with strength, it will suggest a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That improves the prospects of a break above the 50-day SMA. If that happens, the MNT/USDT pair could ascend to $0.94 and later to $1.06.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price continues lower and breaks below $0.77, it will tilt the short-term advantage in favor of the bears. The pair may then tumble to $0.72, delaying the start of the up move.

MNT/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 4-hour chart is facing stiff resistance at $0.85. The pair may dip to $0.77, which is a critical support to watch out for. If the price rebounds off $0.77, it will signal that the bulls are buying on dips. That could keep the pair stuck between $0.77 and $0.85 for some time. A break and close above $0.85 could push the pair toward $0.95.

Sellers will have to pull the price below $0.77 to gain the upper hand. The pair could then drop toward $0.69.

Render price analysis

Render (RNDR) has been in a strong downtrend for several weeks, but the bulls pushed the price above the 50-day SMA ($3.77) on March 25, signaling demand at lower levels.

RNDR/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bears have pulled the price to the 20-day EMA ($3.57), which is an important level to watch out for. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA with force, the bulls will try to propel the RNDR/USDT pair to $5 and later to $6.20.

This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price continues lower and closes below $3.05. That signals aggressive selling at higher levels. The pair may slump to $2.83 and subsequently to $2.52.

RNDR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-EMA has turned down, and the RSI is in the negative territory on the 4-hour chart, indicating an advantage to sellers. A break and close below the uptrend line will further strengthen the bears, pulling the pair to $3.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the moving averages. That could open the doors for a rally to $4. The up move could accelerate after the pair closes above $4.20, completing a bullish head-and-shoulders pattern. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Tracy Jin, the chief operating officer at the MEXC crypto exchange, warns that tokenizing real-world assets (RWAs) carries a substantial amount of centralized risks that can lead to censorship, liquidity issues, legal uncertainty, cybersecurity problems, and asset confiscation through state or third-party intermediaries.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, the executive said that as long as tokenized assets remain under the purview of state regulators and centralized intermediaries, then “tokenization will simply be a new version of old financial infrastructure and not a financial revolution.” Jin added:

“Most tokenized assets will be issued on permissioned or semi-centralized blockchains. This gives authorities the power to issue restrictions or confiscate assets. The tokenization of assets such as real estate or bonds is still tied to the national legal system.”

“If the property or company behind the token is local, in a country with an unstable legal environment or high political volatility, the risk of confiscation increases,” the executive continued.

RWA tokenization is projected to become a multi-trillion sector in the next decade as the world’s assets come onchain, which will increase the velocity of money and extend the reach of capital markets worldwide.

The total market cap of the RWA sector. Source: RWA.XYZ

Related: Dubai Land Department begins real estate tokenization project

Estimates of the future RWA market differ dramatically

Tokenized real-world assets include stocks, bonds, real estate, intellectual property rights, energy, art, private credit, debt instruments, fiat currency, commodities, and collectibles.

According to RWA.XYZ, there are currently over $19.6 billion in tokenized real-world assets onchain, excluding the stablecoin sector, which surpassed a $200 billion market cap in December 2024.

A research report from Tren Finance polled large financial institutions including Citi, Standard Chartered, and McKinsey & Company; the report found that the participants predicted the RWA market to reach anywhere between $4 trillion to $30 trillion by 2030.

Financial institutions provide different forecasts for the future of the tokenized RWA market. Source: Tren Finance

McKinsey & Company predicted the RWA sector will encompass between $2 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030 — a relatively modest assessment compared to other forecasts.

Meanwhile, institutions like Standard Chartered and executives at the blockchain network Polygon say that the RWA market will reach $30 trillion in the next decade.

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