Coin Market

RSI breaks 4-month downtrend: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Published

6 days ago

March 24, 2025

Bitcoin heads into the end of Q1 near two-week highs as trader sentiment diverges from improving technicals.

Bitcoin (BTC) market participants are positioned for a fresh BTC price dip, which could even form new multimonth lows.

PCE week coincides with the last full trading week of March, and risk assets are showing a hint of optimism.

When it comes to BTC price strength, RSI is increasingly demanding bullish continuation.

Bitcoin’s short-term holders are under pressure amid serious unrealized losses.

Stablecoin stocks on Binance hit record highs in what research hopes is a positive signal for investor confidence.

Bitcoin traders see downside reversal next

Bitcoin is nearing a rematch with two-week highs as the week gets underway, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Among traders, however, the mood remains cautious.

Bulls have a lot to do in order to spark a reliable uptrend, they warn, and despite being up nearly 15% versus its multimonth lows from earlier this month, BTC/USD may well see a fresh drop.

“Market sentiment has been restored after hitting the short liquidations at $87.1k. Now, it could be a good opportunity for the MM to shake out the market again,” popular trader CrypNuevo wrote in his latest X analysis.

“We may see a pullback from here over the next 1-2 weeks, a retrace of this recovery.”

BTC liquidity chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

CrypNuevo eyed downside liquidity nearer $80,000 as a potentially lucrative target, advising followers to “mind the risk.”

BTC/USDT 1-hour chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

Fellow trading account HTL-NL described the near-term scenario as “not looking good” for bulls, eyeing $90,000 as a ceiling before a reversal kicks in.

Even among its more ardent supporters, the specter of the mid-$70,000 lingers. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, argues that BTC/USD could even advance to new all-time highs of $110,000 before crashing 30%.

LATEST: BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will hit $110k before retesting $76.5k, claiming Fed is switching from QT to QE for treasuries and dismisses tariff concerns, citing “transitory inflation.” pic.twitter.com/VX3ORPyvii

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) March 24, 2025

“Again I still think we go lower before we make a run back to 88-90k resistance retest,” trader Roman meanwhile added on short timeframes.

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on several key support trend lines in need of a reclaim as part of any BTC price recovery.

These included the 200-day simple and exponential moving averages, currently at $85,050 and $85,500, respectively.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with 200 SMA, 200 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

PCE week comes in the shadow of tariffs

The last full trading week of Q1 2025 gets underway with a hint of relief for risk assets as stocks end a four-week losing streak.

A wild ride for equities since the year began is finally coming to a close, and with it an even more volatile period for Bitcoin and crypto.

That said, more surprises could come before the quarterly candle close.

March 28 is the main date in traders’ diaries this week, hosting the February print of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.

Known to be the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, PCE came in below expectations last month, with the upcoming numbers broadly expected to be identical.

Citing the Fed’s own estimates, financial market research firm Bespoke saw positive developments for risk-on sentiment developing.

“The Fed’s inflation model currently estimates that headline and core for both CPI and PCE will all have 2-handles by March,” it observed last week.

“Makes room for further cuts.”

Fed target rate probabilities for June FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool meanwhile show market odds for interest rate cuts unchanged, with the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as the likely timeframe for financial conditions to ease.

The US government’s reciprocal tariff arrangement, due to go live on April 2, could temper any optimism.

At a press conference following the latest FOMC meeting last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited tariffs as a “driving factor” in increasing inflation expectations.

“You may have seen that goods inflation moved up pretty significantly in the first two months of the year. Trying to track that back to actual tariff increases, given what was tariff and what was not, very, very challenging. So, some of it,” he said.

“The answer is clearly some of it, a good part of it is coming from tariffs.”

RSI signals tease key BTC price breakouts

When it comes to early bull market continuation signals, Bitcoin is currently enjoying several classics at once.

These all hinge on the relative strength index (RSI), a key momentum indicator that is in the process of breaking out across both long and short timeframes.

Market observers are keenly eyeing bullish divergences on RSI, which on weekly timeframes is abandoning a downtrend in place since November 2024.

Originally spotted by trader and analyst Rekt Capital last week, the process is continuing, with RSI seeking to confirm the downtrend line as support before heading higher.

“The Daily RSI is showcasing early signs of retesting the Downtrend dating back to November 2024 as new support,” Rekt Capital wrote in his latest update on the topic.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Rekt Capital/X

As reported by fellow analyst Matthew Hyland, BTC/USD has now confirmed a bullish divergence on the weekly chart for the first time since September last year.

BTC/USD 1-week chart with RSI data. Source: Matthew Hyland/X

Daily RSI meanwhile measured 51.4 at the time of writing — above its key midpoint and fighting to hit new two-month highs.

Bitcoin speculators face a profit waiting game

Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs) — newcomer entities hodling coins for up to six months — are “under increasing pressure,” onchain analytics firm Glassnode warned.

In its latest analysis on X, Glassnode showed substantial unrealized losses among the STH cohort, one traditionally more sensitive to short-term BTC price volatility.

“Unrealized losses have surged, pushing many STH coins underwater, nearing the +2σ threshold,” it noted alongside a chart that applies standard deviation to the performance of their holdings.

Bitcoin STH unrealized loss. Source: Glassnode/X

As Cointelegraph reported, recent trips to multimonth lows for BTC/USD have been accompanied by significant panic selling by these newer investors, with many choosing to exit their positions at a loss.

Zooming out, however, Glassnode observes that compared to historical extremes, current loss-making sales barely compete.

“The rolling 30-day realized loss for Bitcoin’s STHs has reached $7B, marking the largest sustained loss event of this cycle,” it continued.

“However, this remains well below prior capitulation events, such as the $19.8B and $20.7B losses in 2021-22.”

Bitcoin STH rolling 30-day realized loss. Source: Glassnode/X

Stablecoin reserves offer glimmer of hope

Further data points to a return of investor confidence in the largest crypto exchange, Binance.

As highlighted by onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, the total ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on the exchange hit new all-time highs above $31.8 billion on March 21.

“Binance remains the exchange with the highest trading volumes, making this a significant development,” contributor Darkfost wrote in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on March 23.

“There are several factors behind this increase, but the most important one is likely that investors on Binance remain confident and are preparing to enter, or re-enter, the market.”

Binance ERC-20 stablecoin reserve. Source: CryptoQuant

Darkfost acknowledged that Binance may be the source of additional liquidity as it prepares for a potential uptick in activity.

“Nonetheless, seeing these stablecoins remain on Binance is generally a positive signal for the market,” he concluded.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Coin Market

$65K Bitcoin price targets pile up as 'Spoofy the Whale' buys the dip

Published

40 minutes ago

March 30, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) circled $83,000 on March 30 after weekend volatility brought new ten-day lows.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC price action deals snap weekend downside

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gradually recovering after a trip to $81,600 the day prior.

With no added selling pressure from the ongoing rout in US stock markets, Bitcoin managed to erase most of the downside to come full circle versus the last Wall Street close.

“Quite the volatility for a weekend indeed,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized in part of his latest content on X.

“Looking like it might end up opening on Monday where it closed on Friday as most of the dump has been retraced now.”

BTC/USDT 15-minute chart with CME futures data. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Daan Crypto Trades eyed the potential for a new gap in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures markets to be created thanks to the erratic market moves.

“Would be nice to not open with a gap for once so we can focus on everything else instead,” he argued, adding that a “big week” lay ahead.

Others had little hope for a short-term turnaround in Bitcoin’s fortunes. Veteran trader Peter Brandt even doubted the stability of the multimonth lows seen earlier this month.

I am not a big fan of inverted H&S patterns with downward slanting necklines. H&S patterns with horizontal necklines are far more reliable $BTC pic.twitter.com/GKGUZbrab8

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) March 29, 2025

“Don’t shoot the messenger. Just reporting on what the chart says until it says something different,” he told X followers this week, giving a new lower BTC price target.

“Bear wedge completed with 2X target from the double top at 65,635.”

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Peter Brandt/X

Brandt’s is not the only $65,000 BTC price prediction currently in force.

Can “spoofy” $78,000 Bitcoin bids be trusted?

Updating his market observations, meanwhile, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, doubled down on his suspicions that a large-volume entity had been manipulating BTC price action lower in recent weeks.

As Cointelegraph reported, the entity, which Alan dubbed “Spoofy, The Whale,” had used overhead liquidity to pressure the price lower and stop it from gaining traction above $87,500.

This form of order book manipulation, known as “spoofing,” is a common feature in crypto and can involve both bid and ask liquidity.

“While I have no real way of confirming that it is the same entity using ask liquidity to herd price into their own bids, it certainly appears that Spoofy has been buying this dip and has bids laddered down to $78k,” he concluded on the day.

An annotated chart showed all key liquidity clusters thought to be of dubious origin, with Alan now giving reason for optimism.

He concluded:

“In the grand scheme of things, none of this means BTC price can’t go lower, but it does mean that the whale that has been suppressing BTC price for the last 3 weeks is using a DCA strategy to buy this dip…and so am I.”

BTC/USDT order book data for Binance. Source: Keith Alan/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Coin Market

Trump’s trade war pressures crypto market as April 2 tariffs loom

Published

40 minutes ago

March 30, 2025

Concerns over a global trade war continue to pressure traditional and cryptocurrency markets as investors brace for a potential tariff announcement from US President Donald Trump on April 2 — a move that could set the tone for Bitcoin’s price trajectory throughout the month.

Trump first announced import tariffs on Chinese goods on Jan. 20, the day of his inauguration as president.

Global tariff fears have led to heightened inflation concerns, limiting appetite for risk assets among investors. Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 18%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) index has fallen more than 7% in the two months following the initial tariff announcement, according to TradingView data, TradingView data shows.

“Going forward, April 2 is drawing increased attention as a potential flashpoint for fresh US tariff announcements,” Stella Zlatareva, dispatch editor at digital asset investment platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph.

S&P 500, BTC/USD, 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Investor sentiment took another hit on March 29 after Trump pressed his senior advisers to take a more aggressive stance on import tariffs, which may be seen as a potential escalation of the trade war, the Washington Post reported, citing four unnamed sources familiar with the matter.

The April 2 announcement is expected to detail reciprocal trade tariffs targeting top US trading partners. The measures aim to reduce the country’s estimated $1.2 trillion goods trade deficit and boost domestic manufacturing.

Bitcoin ETFs, whales continue accumulating

Despite mounting uncertainty, large Bitcoin holders — known as “whales,” with between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC — have continued to accumulate.

Addresses in this category have remained steady since the beginning of 2025, from 1,956 addresses on Jan. 1 to over 1,990 addresses on March 27 — still below the previous cycle’s peak of 2,370 addresses recorded in February 2024, Glassnode data shows.

Whale address count. Source: Glassnode

“Risk appetite remains muted amid tariff threats from President Trump and ongoing macro uncertainty,” according to Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at Nexo, who told Cointelegraph:

“Still, BTC accumulation by whales and a 10-day ETF inflow streak point to steady institutional demand. But hawkish surprises — from inflation or trade — may keep crypto rangebound into April.”

The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds halted their 10-day accumulation streak on March 28 when Fidelity’s ETF recorded over $93 million worth of outflows, while the other ETF issuers registered no inflows or outflows, Farside Investors data shows.

Bitcoin ETF Flows. Source: Farside Investors

Despite short-term volatility concerns, analysts remained optimistic about Bitcoin’s price trajectory for late 2025, with price predictions ranging from $160,000 to above $180,000.

Magazine: SCB tips $500K BTC, SEC delays Ether ETF options, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Feb. 23 – March 1

Coin Market

Crypto trader turns $2K PEPE into $43M, sells for $10M profit

Published

2 hours ago

March 30, 2025

A savvy cryptocurrency trader reportedly turned $2,000 into more than $43 million by investing in the memecoin Pepe at its peak valuation, despite the token’s extreme volatility and lack of underlying technical value.

The trader made an over 4,700-fold return on investment on the popular frog-themed Pepe (PEPE) cryptocurrency, according to blockchain intelligence platform Lookonchain.

“This OG spent only $2,184 to buy 1.5T $PEPE($43M at the peak) in the early stage. He sold 1.02T $PEPE for $6.66M, leaving 493B $PEPE($3.64M), with a total profit of $10.3M(4,718x), Lookonchain wrote in a March 29 X post.

Source: Lookonchain

The trader realized over $10 million in profit despite Pepe’s price falling over 74% from its all-time high of $0.00002825, which it reached on Dec. 9, 2024, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.

PEPE/USD, all-time chart. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

Memecoins are considered some of the most speculative and volatile digital assets, with price action driven largely by online enthusiasm and social sentiment rather than fundamental utility or innovation.

Still, they’ve proven capable of generating life-changing returns. In May 2024, another early Pepe investor turned $27 into $52 million — a 1.9 million-fold return — according to onchain data.

Memecoins are stealing the spotlight from altcoins

Despite their intrinsic lack of utility, memecoins continued to steal the spotlight from more established cryptocurrencies, Stella Zlatareva, dispatch editor at digital asset investment platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph:

“High-beta, i.e., volatile tokens, are stealing the spotlight. Case in point, memecoins surged 5.6% on average, with DOGE, PEPE, and FLOKI responding to rate cut optimism and broader crypto strength.”

Top 100 cryptocurrencies, weekly performance. Source: Cryptobubbles

While investor demand for memecoins has surged, it may also be siphoning capital from more established assets. For example, Solana (SOL) has fallen more than 51% since the launch of the Official Trump (TRUMP) token in January, according to Cointelegraph data.

Memecoins “don’t tend to draw in much external capital flow; instead existing eco-system capital ‘round-robins’ from one meme to the next,” Dan Hughes, founder of the decentralized finance platform Radix, told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Even in the case of TRUMP, most of the inbound liquidity was outflow from other crypto assets, people selling their crypto portfolio to buy TRUMP in extreme FOMO [fear of missing out].”

SOL/USDT, 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Insider scams and fraudulent activity have plagued the memecoin industry, and US regulators are taking note. On March 5, New York lawmakers introduced a bill aimed at protecting crypto investors from rug pulls and similar insider scams shortly after the scandal around the Libra (LIBRA) token, which was endorsed by Argentine President Javier Milei.

Magazine: Memecoins are ded — But Solana ‘100x better’ despite revenue plunge