Coin Market

Bitcoin price recovery sets base for TON, AVAX, NEAR, OKB to rally

Published

6 days ago

March 23, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are trying to make a comeback by maintaining the price above the 200-day simple moving average ($84,899) over the weekend. Bitget Research chief analyst Ryan Lee told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin needs to close above $85,000 this week to signal strength and “prevent a drop to $76,000.” Lee added that a close above $87,000 would give a clearer bullish confirmation.

Tariff wars have rocked both traditional markets and the cryptocurrency markets in the past few days. Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard believes the markets may remain under pressure until April 2. While speaking on Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction daily X show, Sondergaard said that if the tariffs get dropped, it could act as “the biggest driver at this moment.”

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

Although analysts remain bullish for the long term, some expect a short-term decline. Analyzing previous bear market declines, market analyst and author Timothy Peterson said in a post on X that the current bear market should only last for 90 days. The analyst anticipates a fall in the “next 30 days followed by a 20-40% rally sometime after April 15th.”

If Bitcoin starts a sustained recovery, several altcoins could follow suit. What are the top cryptocurrencies that look strong on the charts?

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin is struggling to rise and sustain above the 20-day exponential moving average ($85,246), but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

That increases the possibility of a break above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($90,469) and thereafter to $95,000.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below $81,000, it suggests that the bulls have given up. That could sink the pair to $80,000 and subsequently to $76,606. Buyers are expected to defend the $76,606 level because a break below it may deepen the correction. There is strong support at $73,777, but if the level falls, the next stop could be $67,000.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Both moving averages are flattish, but the relative strength index (RSI) has risen into the positive zone. That suggests the bullish momentum is picking up. The first sign of strength will be a close above $87,500. That could open the gates for a rise to $92,500 and later to $95,000.

The advantage will tilt in favor of the bears on a break and close below $80,000. That could sink the pair to solid support at $76,606.

Toncoin price analysis

Toncoin (TON) turned down from the $4 level on March 20, but the bulls have held the price above the moving averages.

TON/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover, and the RSI has jumped into the positive zone. That improves the prospects of a break above $4. If that happens, the TON/USDT pair could surge to $5.

This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA ($3.39). That could pull the pair to $2.81 and then to the solid support at $2.73.

TON/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The pair is taking support at the 20-EMA on the 4-hour chart, signaling that the bulls are buying the dips. However, the bears are unlikely to give up easily. They will fiercely defend the $3.80 to $4 overhead zone. Sellers will be back in command on a break and close below $3.28. That could start a fall toward $2.90.

On the upside, a break and close above $4 signals an advantage to the buyers. There is minor resistance at $4.14, but it is likely to be crossed. The pair may run toward $4.67.

Avalanche price analysis

Avalanche (AVAX) has been in a strong downtrend, but the positive divergence on the RSI suggests that the bearish momentum may be weakening.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The AVAX/USDT pair has been clinging to the 20-day EMA ($19.76), increasing the likelihood of a breakout. If that happens, the pair could climb to the 50-day SMA ($22.41) and subsequently to the $25.12 to $27.23 resistance zone. Such a move suggests that the downtrend could be ending.

On the other hand, the downtrend may resume if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below the $15.27 support. That could extend the decline to $11.

AVAX/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The pair has been trading inside a narrow range between $20.10 and $18.12 on the 4-hour chart. The 20-EMA is trying to move up, and the RSI is in the positive territory, giving a slight advantage to the bulls. If the price breaks above $20.10, the pair may ascend to $21.20 and then to $22.50.

Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below $18.12, it suggests that the bears are trying to retain control. The pair may slump to $16.95 and eventually to $15.27.

Near Protocol price analysis

Near Protocol (NEAR) has been in a strong downtrend, but it is showing early signs of starting a reversal.

NEAR/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The positive divergence on the RSI suggests that the bears are losing their grip. A break and close above the 50-day SMA ($3.05) could strengthen the bulls, opening the gates for a rally to $3.65. Sellers are expected to aggressively defend the $3.65 level, but if the bulls prevail, the NEAR/USDT pair may rise to $5.

Contrarily, if the price turns down and breaks below $2.48, it suggests that the bears remain in control. The pair could then drop to the solid support at $2.14.

NEAR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 4-hour chart has been trading above the 20-EMA, indicating that the bulls are holding on to their positions as they anticipate another leg higher. A break above $2.83 could start a move toward $3.25. Sellers are expected to defend the $3.25 level, but if the bulls pierce the resistance, the next stop could be $3.65.

This optimistic view will be negated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages. The pair may decline to $2.48 and, after that, to $2.34.

OKB price analysis

OKB (OKB) has been trading inside a descending channel pattern, indicating buying near the support line and selling close to the resistance line.

OKB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The OKB/USDT pair picked up momentum after breaking out of the 20-day EMA ($48.39) on March 14. The pair is facing selling near $$54, which could pull the price down to the 20-day EMA. A shallow pullback suggests that the bulls are not rushing to the exit, increasing the possibility of a rally to the resistance line.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price continues lower and breaks below the 50-day SMA ($47.56), it signals that the bears remain active at higher levels. The pair may then tumble to $45.

OKB/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Sellers are trying to pull the price below the 50-SMA on the 4-hour chart. If they succeed, it could weaken the bullish momentum. There is support at $48, but if the level breaks down, the pair could drop to $45.

Instead, a solid bounce off the 50-SMA suggests that the sentiment remains positive and bulls are buying on dips. The up move could resume above $54, opening the doors for a rally to the resistance line.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Coin Market

Why institutions are hesitant about decentralized finance — Shibtoshi

Published

2 hours ago

March 29, 2025

Shibtoshi, the founder of the SilentSwap privacy-preserving trading platform, outlined several concerns that make institutions hesitant to adopt decentralized finance (DeFi) solutions, including privacy, a lack of standardized compliance regulations, and legal accountability.

The DeFi founder told Cointelegraph that the high transparency of onchain transactions presents a problem for companies that must conceal sensitive information, including trading strategies, payroll information, and business-to-business agreements. Shibtoshi said:

“The main concerns — regulatory uncertainty, privacy limitations, and complex user experience — are real, but solvable. Innovations in privacy-preserving protocols are making DeFi increasingly compatible with enterprise needs. Platforms like SilentSwap are a step in that direction.”

Regulatory uncertainty continues to be one of the biggest problems for DeFi and is compounded by a fragmented approach across legal jurisdictions, which prevents institutional adoption, Shibtoshi added.

“Are DeFi tokens securities? What happens if a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) messes up — and who is responsible when it does? It is all still pretty unclear,” the SilentSwap founder told Cointelegraph.

Shibtoshi urged common sense regulations that encourage innovation and preserve the value propositions of decentralized finance, including self-custody, speed, and cost-effective transactions.

The total value locked across the DeFi ecosystem has not yet returned to peak levels witnessed in 2021 and 2022. Source: DeFiLlama

US Congress overturns archaic DeFi rule, but DeFi still in danger

Both chambers of the United States Congress recently voted to overturn the highly unpopular DeFi broker rule requiring decentralized finance protocols and platforms to report customer transactions to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

The US Senate repealed the IRS broker rule in a 70 to 27 vote on March 4, followed by members of the US House of Representatives voting to repeal the IRS rule on March 11.

Despite the repeal of the archaic rule, overregulation may end up killing a sector that was born as a decentralized, more accessible, and pseudonymous alternative to traditional finance.

According to crypto entrepreneur and investor Artem Tolkachev, regulatory compliance is undermining decentralization in DeFi and destroying the value proposition of the nascent sector.

The emphasis on regulatory compliance measures increases the potential for censorship and shifts control from the users to third-party intermediaries and large institutions, Tolkachev wrote.

Magazine: How Shibtoshi gambled 37 ETH and became a Shiba Inu billionaire

Coin Market

US recession 40% likely in 2025, what it means for crypto — Analyst

Published

4 hours ago

March 29, 2025

The United States has a 40% chance of a recession in 2025 amid the potential for a protracted trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty, according to market analyst and Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, the analyst said that while a recession is not probable, a recession and the current macroeconomic uncertainty will create an environment where risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies suffer. Puckrin said:

“Trump and his advisors have said they have not completely dismissed the recession, which means it is definitely possible, but right now, I would not say it is probable, but the odds have climbed a lot.”

The analyst added that US President Donald Trump is not actively attempting to engineer a recession, but that the things the Trump administration is doing, including cutting federal jobs and spending to balance the budget can lead to recessions as a side effect.

Macroeconomic uncertainty is the primary cause of the recent decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY), as investors shift capital to better opportunities in European capital markets and seek an escape from the economic uncertainty currently plaguing US markets, Puckrin told Cointelegraph.

The DXY, which tracks the strength of the US dollar, took a nosedive in March 2025. Source: TradingView

Trade war fears drag the price of Bitcoin down

President Trump’s tariffs on US trading partners sent a shockwave through the crypto markets, leading to a steep decline in altcoin prices and a 24% correction in Bitcoin’s (BTC) price from the Jan. 20 high of over $109,000.

The tariffs and fears of a prolonged trade war also reoriented market sentiment toward extreme fear — a sharp contrast from the euphoric highs felt after the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States in November 2025 and the January 20 inauguration.

The price of Bitcoin has been struggling amid the trade war headlines and is currently trading below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). Source: TradingView

According to Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, crypto markets will feel the pressure of tariffs until April 2025.

If countries can successfully negotiate an end to the tariffs or the Trump administration softens its stance then markets will recover, the analyst added.

10x Research founder Markus Thielen recently said that BTC formed a price bottom in March 2025, as US President Donald Trump softened the rhetoric around trade tariffs — signaling a potential price reversal.

Magazine: Bitcoiners are ‘all in’ on Trump since Bitcoin ’24, but it’s getting risky

Coin Market

Potential Bitcoin price fall to $65K ‘irrelevant’ since central bank liquidity is coming — Analyst

Published

6 hours ago

March 29, 2025

Bitcoin’s (BTC) 7% decline saw the price drop from $88,060 on March 26 to $82,036 on March 29 and led to $158 million in long liquidations. This drop was particularly concerning for bulls, as gold surged to a record high at the same time, undermining Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative. However, many experts argue that a Bitcoin rally is imminent as multiple governments take steps to avert an economic crisis.

The ongoing global trade war and spending cuts by the US government are considered temporary setbacks. An apparent silver lining is the expectation that additional liquidity is expected to flow into the markets, which could boost risk-on assets. Analysts believe Bitcoin is well-positioned to benefit from this broader macroeconomic shift.

Source: Mihaimihale

Take, for example, Mihaimihale, an X social platform user who argued that tax cuts and lower interest rates are necessary to “kickstart” the economy, particularly since the previous year’s growth was “propped up” by government spending, which proved unsustainable.

The less favorable macroeconomic environment pushed gold to a record high of $3,087 on March 28, while the US dollar weakened against a basket of foreign currencies, with the DXY Index dropping to 104 from 107.40 a month earlier.

Additionally, the $93 million in net outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on March 28 further weighed on sentiment, as traders acknowledged that even institutional investors are susceptible to selling amid rising recession risks.

US inflation slows amid economic recession fears

The market currently assigns a 50% probability that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to 4% or lower by July 30, up from 46% a month earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Implied rates for Fed Funds on July 30. Source: CME FedWatch

The crypto market is presently in a “withdrawal phase,” according to Alexandre Vasarhelyi, the founding partner at B2V Crypto. Vasarhelyi noted that recent major announcements, such as the US strategic Bitcoin reserve executive order mark progress in the metric that matters the most: adoption.

Vasarhelyi said real-world asset (RWA) tokenization is a promising trend, but he believes its impact remains limited. “BlackRock’s billion-dollar BUIDL fund is a step forward, but it’s insignificant compared to the $100 trillion bond market.”

Vasarhelyi added:

“Whether Bitcoin’s floor is $77,000 or $65,000 matters little; the story is early-stage growth.”

Gold decouples from stocks, bonds and Bitcoin

Experienced traders view a 10% stock market correction as routine. However, some anticipate a decline in “policy uncertainty” by early April, which would reduce the likelihood of a recession or bear market.

Source: WarrenPies

Warren Pies, founder of 3F Research, expects the US administration to soften its stance on tariffs, which could stabilize investor sentiment. This shift may help the S&P 500 stay above its March 13 low of 5,505. However, market volatility remains a factor as economic conditions evolve.

For some, the fact that gold decoupled from the stock market while Bitcoin succumbed to “extreme fear” is evidence that the digital gold thesis was flawed. However, more experienced investors, including Vasarhelyi, argue that Bitcoin’s weak performance reflects its early-stage adoption rather than a failure of its fundamental qualities.

Vasarhelyi said,

“Legislative shifts pave the way for user-friendly products, trading some of crypto’s flexibility for mainstream appeal. My take is adoption will accelerate, but 2025 remains a foundation year, not a tipping point.”

Analysts view the recent Bitcoin correction as a reaction to recession fears and the temporary tariff war. However, they expect these factors to trigger expansionist measures from central banks, ultimately creating a favorable environment for risk-on assets, including Bitcoin.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.