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The current BTC 'bear market' will only last 90 days — Analyst

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The current Bitcoin (BTC) bear market, defined as a 20% or more drop from the all-time high, is relatively weak in terms of magnitude and should only last for 90 days, according to market analyst and the author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value, Timothy Peterson.

Peterson compared the current downturn to the 10 previous bear markets, which occur roughly once per year, and said that only four bear markets have been worse than the price decline in terms of duration, including 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024.

The analyst predicted that BTC will not sink deeply below the $50,000 price level due to the underlying adoption trends. However, Peterson also argued that based on momentum, it is unlikely that BTC will break below $80,000. The analyst added:

“There may be a slide in the next 30 days followed by a 20-40% rally sometime after April 15. You can see that in the charts around day 120. This would probably be enough of a headline to bring weak hands back into the market and propel Bitcoin even higher.”

Crypto markets experienced a sharp downturn following United States President Trump’s tariffs on several US trading partners, which sparked counter-tariffs on US exports, leading to fears of a prolonged trade war.

Comparison of every bear market since 2025. Source: Timothy Peterson

Related: Is Bitcoin going to $65K? Traders explain why they’re still bearish

Investors flee risk-on assets over trade war fears

Investor appetite for speculative assets is declining due to the ongoing trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty.

The Glassnode Hot Supply metric, a measure of BTC owned for one week or less, declined from 5.9% amid the historic bull rally in November 2024 to only 2.3% as of March 20.

According to Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, crypto markets will face trade war pressures until April 2025, when international negotiations could potentially lower or diffuse the trade tariffs altogether.

A recent analysis from CryptoQuant also shows that a majority of retail traders are already invested in BTC, dashing long-held hopes that a massive rush of retail traders would inject fresh capital into the markets and push prices higher in the near term.

The trade war also placed Bitcoin’s safe haven narrative in doubt as the price of the decentralized asset collapsed over tariff headlines alongside other risk and speculative assets.

Magazine: Bitcoiners are ‘all in’ on Trump since Bitcoin ’24, but it’s getting risky

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coin Market

Elon Musk’s sale of X to xAI just made fraud lawsuit a ‘lot spicer’

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Billionaire investor Elon Musk has sold his social media platform X to his AI startup xAI in an all-stock deal, sparking controversy as it coincides with a US judge rejecting his bid to dismiss a lawsuit tied to the social media platform.

The transfer of ownership of X to xAI on March 28 means that the class-action lawsuit against Musk — accusing him of defrauding former Twitter shareholders by delaying the disclosure of his initial investment in the social media platform — has become “a whole lot spicer,” Cinneamhain Ventures partner Adam Cochran said in a March 28 X post.

Acquisition may open up xAI to more ‘exposure’

On the same day that Musk said “xAI has acquired X in an all-stock transaction,” a US judge reportedly rejected Musk’s attempt to dismiss the lawsuit. Cochran said it has “opened up his AI entity to exposure here too, and it’s a much bigger pie.”

Source: Grok

Musk said the deal values xAI at $80 billion and X at $33 billion, factoring in $12 billion in debt from the $45 billion valuation. He originally bought X, formerly Twitter, for around $44 billion in April 2022.

“xAI and X’s futures are intertwined. Today, we officially take the step to combine the data, models, compute, distribution and talent,” Musk said.

Source: Bryan Rosenblatt

“This combination will unlock immense potential by blending xAI’s advanced AI capability and expertise with X’s massive reach,” he said, adding:

“This will allow us to build a platform that doesn’t just reflect the world but actively accelerates human progress.”

However, Cochran claimed that “Musk used his pumped up xAI stock to pay multiple times over value for X, but still take an $11B loss on the transaction.” He said that Musk is “screwing over xAI investors, and X investors” and was executed to sell user data to xAI.

Related: Elon Musk’s ‘government efficiency’ team turns its sights to SEC — Report

xAI is best known for its AI chatbot “Grok” which is built into the X platform. When Musk released it in November 2023, he claimed it could outperform OpenAI’s first iteration of ChatGPT in several academic tests.

Source: Raoul Pal

Musk explained at the time that the motivation behind building Grok is to create AI tools equipped to assist humanity by empowering research and innovation.

While Cochran said that Grok being valued at $80 billion is an “insanely dumb valuation,” crypto developer “Keef” disagrees. Keef said, “This is shady all around, but given the day, Grok is genuinely probably the top model for various tasks.”

Magazine: Arbitrum co-founder skeptical of move to based and native rollups: Steven Goldfeder

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Zhao pledges BNB for Thailand, Myanmar disaster relief

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Binance co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao is donating 500 BNB (BNB) each to Thailand and Myanmar following a 7.7 magnitude earthquake that caused severe damage to buildings and widespread flooding.

Zhao plans to distribute the funds through Binance and Binance Thailand if a third-party onchain donation platform cannot be found to distribute the disaster relief funds.

“I hope everyone is safe in Thailand,” the Binance founder wrote in a March 28 X post before announcing the contributions to both countries affected by the earthquake.

According to The Guardian, at least 144 people are confirmed to have died as a result of the catastrophic earthquake as first responders in both countries continue rescue efforts to free people trapped under rubble.

Source: CZ

Related: Thailand regulator approves USDT, USDC stablecoins

Disaster strikes Myanmar and Thailand

The earthquake struck on March 28 at approximately 1:20 PM local time. The epicenter of the earthquake was approximately 10 miles from Mandalay — the second-largest city in Myanmar.

The death toll in both countries is expected to rise as relief efforts continue, with 732 individuals reportedly injured as a result of the earthquake.

Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing has called upon any country willing to help with the disaster relief efforts to provide any aid it can.

Crypto donations amplify aid during times of crisis

The cross-border efficiencies, low transaction costs, and near-instant settlement times of cryptocurrencies make digital assets an ideal medium for disaster relief funds.

Following a 7.8 magnitude earthquake that impacted Turkey and Syria in February 2023, philanthropist Haluk Levent began collecting crypto disaster relief donations.

The Giving Block, a company that works with nonprofit organizations to facilitate crypto donations, also used crypto to raise funds for the victims of the Maui wildfires in 2023 and managed to give over $1 million to the relief effort.

More recently, in January, The Giving Block started an emergency relief fundraiser for those impacted by the California wildfires in Los Angeles and the surrounding areas.

At the time of this writing, the organization has raised over $1 million for the California wildfire relief fund.

Magazine: Crypto is changing how humanitarian agencies deliver aid and services

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Bitcoin price falls toward range lows, but data shows ‘whales going wild right now’

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Bitcoin price extended its decline on March 28, falling for a fourth consecutive day to paint an intra-day low of $83,387. BTC’s (BTC) decline mirrored the Wall Street sell-off, where the DOW closed 700 points lower, alongside the S&P 500 index, which dropped 112 points. 

The sell-off in equities is widely attributed to investors increasing worries over inflation after the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index data from February rose to 2.8% (a 0.4% monthly increase), which was higher than expected. 

S&P 500 drops $1 trillion in market cap value. Source: X / The Kobeissi Letter

The sell-off was further amplified by the markets’ response to US President Trump’s newly levied “reciprocal tariffs,” which applied a 25% tariff to “all cars that are not made in the United States.” 

The chances for a Bitcoin relief rally or oversold bounce are likely diminishing as traders cautiously keep an eye on April 2, the day Trump has labeled “Liberation Day,” where additional tariffs, including “pharmaceutical tariffs,” are expected to be unveiled. 

Bitcoin price to fall to $65K? 

According to veteran trader Peter Brandt, Bitcoin could be on the path to $65,635. 

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: X / Peter Brandt

In an X social post, Brandt confirmed the completion of a “bear wedge” pattern and said

“Don’t shoot the messenger. Just reporting on what the chart says until it says something different. Bear wedge completed with 2X target from the double top at $65,635.” 

Crypto trader ‘HTL-NL’ agreed with Brandt, suggesting that Bitcoin’s failure in “breaking the ice” of a long-term descending trendline and the confirmation of the bear wedge are proof that BTC is destined to revisit its range lows. 

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: X / HTL-NL

From a purely technical point of view, it’s difficult to project a swift reversal in Bitcoin’s price action as many of its daily timeframe metrics are not oversold. Despite the absence of strong spot market demand in the current price zone, crypto trader Cole Garner says that “whales are going wild right now.” 

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: X / Cole Garner

According to Garner, the Bitfinex spot BTC margin longs to margin shorts metric just fired a powerful signal which shows historical returns of 50%+ returns “within 50 days.” 

Related: US regulators FDIC and CFTC ease crypto restrictions for banks, derivatives

Beyond the day-to-day price fluctuations, positive crypto industry developments continue to occur on the regulatory front. 

On March 28, White House AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks commended the FDIC and its Acting Chairman Travis Hill for clarifying the “process for banks to engage in crypto-related activities.” 

Source: X / David Sacks

Essentially, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s letter to institutions under its oversight provided clear guidance on their ability to engage in and provide crypto-related products and services without needing to notify the FDIC first.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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