Connect with us

Coin Market

Crypto markets will be pressured by trade wars until April: analyst

Published

on

Both cryptocurrency and traditional markets will be pressured by global trade war concerns until at least the beginning of April, but the potential resolution may bring the next big market catalyst.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price fell over 17% since US President Donald Trump first announced import tariffs on Chinese goods on Jan. 20, the first day after his presidential inauguration.

Despite a multitude of positive crypto-specific developments, global tariff fears will continue pressuring the markets until at least April 2, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen.

BTC/USD, 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The research analyst said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction daily X show on March 21:

“I’m looking forward to seeing what happens with the tariffs from April 2nd onwards, maybe we’ll see some of them dropped but it depends if all countries can agree. That’s the biggest driver at this moment.”

The Crypto Debanking Crisis: #CHAINREACTION https://t.co/nD4qkkzKnB

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) March 21, 2025

Risk assets may lack direction until the tariff-related concerns are resolved, which may happen between April 2 and July, presenting a positive market catalyst, added the analyst.

President Trump’s reciprocal tariff rates are set to take effect on April 2, despite earlier comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that indicated a possible delay in their activation.

Related: Ether risks correction to $1.8K as ETF outflows, tariff fears continue

Fed’s interest rates are also contributing to market slump

High interest rates will also continue pressuring risk appetite among investors until the Federal Reserve eventually starts cutting rates, explained Sondergaard, adding:

“We’re waiting for the Fed to see proper “bad news” before they will really start cutting rates.”

Fed target interest rate probabilities. Source: CME Group’s FedWatch tool

Markets are currently pricing in an 85% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady during the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 7, according to the latest estimates of the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Related: Crypto debanking is not over until Jan 2026: Caitlin Long

Still, the Federal Reserve indicates that inflation and recession-related concerns are transitory, particularly regarding tariffs, which may be a positive sign for investors, according to Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at Nexo digital asset investment platform.

“Markets may now expect upcoming economic data with greater confidence,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Cooling inflation and stable economic conditions could further boost investor appetite, driving additional upside for Bitcoin and digital assets.”

“Keep an eye on key reports, including Consumer Confidence, Q4 GDP, jobless claims, and next week’s crucial PCE inflation release, to gauge the likelihood of future rate cuts,” the analyst added.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Coin Market

NAYG lawsuit against Galaxy was ‘lawfare, pure and simple' — Scaramucci

Published

on

By

The New York State Attorney General’s (NAYG) recent legal action against Galaxy Digital over its promotional ties to the now-collapsed cryptocurrency Terra (LUNA) was unfair and an abuse of the legal system, says SkyBridge Capital and founder Anthony Scaramucci.

“It’s LAWFARE, pure and simple due to an obscure but dangerously powerful New York law known as the Martin Act,” Scaramucci said in a March 28 X post.

Martin Law can “open the door for abuse”

“The law has no need to prove intent, creating a low standard of proof that can open the door for abuse like this. It shouldn’t exist,” he said.

New York’s Martin Act is one of the US’s strictest anti-fraud and securities laws, allowing prosecutors the power to pursue financial fraud cases without needing to prove intent. The NAYG alleged that Galaxy Digital violated the Martin Act over its alleged promotion of Terra, with Galaxy Digital agreeing to a $200 million settlement.

According to NAYG documents filed on March 24, Galaxy Digital acquired 18.5 million LUNA tokens at a 30% discount in October 2020, then promoted them before selling them without abiding by disclosure rules. 

Scaramucci reiterated that Galaxy CEO Michael Novogratz was under the impression everything he was saying about Luna was true, as he had been deceived by Terraform Labs and its former CEO, Do Kwon.

Source: Amanda Fischer

Meanwhile, MoonPay president of enterprise, Keith Grossman, said he had never heard of the Martin Act and had to look it up using AI chatbot ChatGPT.

“It is so broad and essentially is the essence of lawfare,” Grossman said. “Sorry you got caught in the crosshairs of it, Mike,” he added.

Related: Sonic unveils high-yield algorithmic stablecoin, reigniting Terra-Luna ‘PTSD’

The filing alleged that Galaxy helped a “little-known” token, referring to LUNA, increase its market price from $0.31 in October 2020 to $119.18 in April 2022 while “profiting in the hundreds of millions of dollars.”

Asset manager and investor Anthony Pompliano said he isn’t familiar with the details of the lawsuit but vouched for Novogratz, calling him a “good man” who has devoted a lot of time and money to helping others.

The Terra collapse is one of the crypto industry’s most infamous failures. In March 2024, SEC attorney Devon Staren said in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York that Terra was a “house of cards” that collapsed for investors in 2022.

Magazine: Arbitrum co-founder skeptical of move to based and native rollups: Steven Goldfeder

Continue Reading

Coin Market

Greedy L2s are the reason ETH is a 'completely dead' investment: VC

Published

on

By

Ether’s (ETH) declining appeal as an investment comes from layer-2’s draining value from the main network and a lack of community pushback on excessive token creation, a crypto venture capitalist says.

“The #1 cause of this is greedy Eth L2s siphoning value from the L1 and the social consensus that excess token creation was A-OK,” Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter said in a March 28 X post.

Ether “died by its own hand”

“ETH was buried in an avalanche of its own tokens. Died by its own hand,” Carter said. He said this in response to Lekker Capital founder Quinn Thompson’s claim that Ether is “completely dead” as an investment.

Source: Quinn Thompson

“A $225 billion market cap network that is seeing declines in transaction activity, user growth and fees/revenues. There is no investment case here. As a network with utility? Yes. As an investment? Absolutely not,” Thompson said in a March 28 X post. 

The ETH/BTC ratio — which shows Ether’s relative strength compared to Bitcoin (BTC) — is sitting at 0.02260, its lowest level in nearly five years, according to TradingView data. 

At the time of publication, Ether is trading at $1,894, down 5.34% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Ether is down 17.94% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

Meanwhile, Cointelegraph Magazine reported in September 2024 that fee revenue for Ethereum had “collapsed” by 99% over the previous six months as “extractive L2s” absorbed all the users, transactions and fee revenue while contributing nothing to the base layer. 

Around the same time, Cinneamhain Ventures partner Adam Cochran said Based Rollups could solve the issue of Ethereum’s layer-2 networks pulling liquidity and revenue from the blockchain’s base layer.

Cochran said Based Rollups could “directly impact the monetization of Ethereum by making a pretty fundamental change to incentive structures.”

Related: Ethereum futures premium hits 1+ year low — Is it time to buy the ETH bottom?

Despite optimism toward the end of last year about Ether reaching $10,000 in 2025 — especially after reaching $4,000 in December, the same month Bitcoin touched $100,000 for the first time — it has since seen a sharp decline alongside the broader crypto market downturn.

Standard Chartered added to the bearish outlook via a March 17 client letter, which revised down their end of 2025 ETH price estimate from $10,000 to $4,000, a 60% reduction. 

However, several crypto traders, including pseudonymous traders Doctor Profit and Merlijn The Trader, are “insanely bullish” and argue that Ether could be the “best opportunity in the market.”

Source: Merlijn The Trader

Magazine: Arbitrum co-founder skeptical of move to based and native rollups: Steven Goldfeder

Continue Reading

Coin Market

Elon Musk’s sale of X to xAI just made fraud lawsuit a ‘lot spicer’

Published

on

By

Billionaire investor Elon Musk has sold his social media platform X to his AI startup xAI in an all-stock deal, sparking controversy as it coincides with a US judge rejecting his bid to dismiss a lawsuit tied to the social media platform.

The transfer of ownership of X to xAI on March 28 means that the class-action lawsuit against Musk — accusing him of defrauding former Twitter shareholders by delaying the disclosure of his initial investment in the social media platform — has become “a whole lot spicer,” Cinneamhain Ventures partner Adam Cochran said in a March 28 X post.

Acquisition may open up xAI to more ‘exposure’

On the same day that Musk said “xAI has acquired X in an all-stock transaction,” a US judge reportedly rejected Musk’s attempt to dismiss the lawsuit. Cochran said it has “opened up his AI entity to exposure here too, and it’s a much bigger pie.”

Source: Grok

Musk said the deal values xAI at $80 billion and X at $33 billion, factoring in $12 billion in debt from the $45 billion valuation. He originally bought X, formerly Twitter, for around $44 billion in April 2022.

“xAI and X’s futures are intertwined. Today, we officially take the step to combine the data, models, compute, distribution and talent,” Musk said.

Source: Bryan Rosenblatt

“This combination will unlock immense potential by blending xAI’s advanced AI capability and expertise with X’s massive reach,” he said, adding:

“This will allow us to build a platform that doesn’t just reflect the world but actively accelerates human progress.”

However, Cochran claimed that “Musk used his pumped up xAI stock to pay multiple times over value for X, but still take an $11B loss on the transaction.” He said that Musk is “screwing over xAI investors, and X investors” and was executed to sell user data to xAI.

Related: Elon Musk’s ‘government efficiency’ team turns its sights to SEC — Report

xAI is best known for its AI chatbot “Grok” which is built into the X platform. When Musk released it in November 2023, he claimed it could outperform OpenAI’s first iteration of ChatGPT in several academic tests.

Source: Raoul Pal

Musk explained at the time that the motivation behind building Grok is to create AI tools equipped to assist humanity by empowering research and innovation.

While Cochran said that Grok being valued at $80 billion is an “insanely dumb valuation,” crypto developer “Keef” disagrees. Keef said, “This is shady all around, but given the day, Grok is genuinely probably the top model for various tasks.”

Magazine: Arbitrum co-founder skeptical of move to based and native rollups: Steven Goldfeder

Continue Reading

Trending