Since US President Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, Bitcoin (BTC) has swung from a record high of $109,000 to below $78,000 as major tariff announcements from the US and retaliatory moves from trade partners shaved off chunks of cryptocurrency market value and rattled global markets.

“The back-and-forth on tariffs, with Trump sometimes tough and sometimes accommodating, has left markets in a limbo state, where few people are willing to be decidedly bullish but just as few are willing to part with their assets, fearing to be left on the side-lines at the next rally,” Justin d’Anethan, head of sales at Liquify, told Cointelegraph.

By mid-March, investors began regaining confidence as White House messaging pointed to a more measured approach. But mixed signals remain, and with a second wave of “reciprocal tariffs” looming on April 2 — dubbed Liberation Day — market jitters haven’t fully subsided.

Trump’s trade war saga has rattled global markets but evolved to a softer stance by late March.

Colombian tariff standoff and DeepSeek disruption shakes Bitcoin

Bitcoin hovered above $100,000 until Jan. 26, when Trump threatened 25% tariffs on all Colombian imports after Colombian President Gustavo Petro refused to accept US military aircraft carrying deported migrants. Petro accused Trump of mistreating immigrants and retaliated with tariffs of his own.

Colombia quickly reversed course — agreeing to accept deportees — after facing pressure over its dependence on US trade. Bitcoin reclaimed $100,000 shortly after. But market sentiment was further shaken by the sudden rise of Chinese AI firm DeepSeek, whose budget-built model sparked fears of disruption in the tech sector and contributed to risk-off sentiment across markets.

Bitcoin’s dip below $100,000 in late January coincided with US tariffs standoff with Colombia and the rise of DeepSeek. Source: CoinGecko

Tariff war begins and Bitcoin racks losses

On Feb. 1, Trump signed an executive order to impose 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports and 25% on Canadian and Mexican goods, effective Feb. 4, citing national emergency over immigration and fentanyl. China, Canada and Mexico all threatened retaliation.

Bitcoin tumbled below $93,000, rebounding only after Trump agreed to a 30-day pause on the Canada and Mexico tariffs on Feb. 3. But the Chinese tariffs took effect as scheduled on Feb. 4 — and that was the last time Bitcoin traded above $100,000.

Bitcoin’s falls as Trump signs executive order, its subsequent recovery was a dead cat bounce. Source: CoinGecko

Bitcoin remained volatile through mid-February. On Feb. 10, Trump announced the removal of steel and aluminum tariff exemptions, raising all metal tariffs to 25%, effective March 12. He then unveiled a “reciprocal tariffs” plan to match foreign import taxes.

Bitcoin held steady around $93,000 and briefly rallied to $99,000. But on Feb. 21, the momentum collapsed following the Bybit hack — the largest crypto breach in history — sending Bitcoin back below $90,000.

Related: In pictures: Bybit’s record-breaking $1.4B hack

Bitcoin falls just before reaching $100,000 following Bybit hack, then copper tariff. Source: CoinGecko

On Feb. 25, Trump added to bearish pressure by ordering a review of potential tariffs on imported copper, citing national security. Bitcoin dipped below $80,000 for the first time since November.

March shows signs of relief for Bitcoin

March kicked off with Trump issuing another order reviewing tariffs on lumber and timber. But crypto briefly rallied after the White House unveiled plans for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and digital asset stockpile — including XRP, SOL, and ADA.

On March 4, Trump followed through with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and doubled Chinese tariffs to 20%. All three countries vowed to retaliate. The next day, Trump granted a one-month exemption on tariffs for US automakers importing from Canada and Mexico. A day later, the White House extended the tariff pause on many imports that qualify under the USMCA, while still threatening reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

Related: Does XRP, SOL or ADA belong in a US crypto reserve?

Trump credited Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum for “unprecedented” border cooperation. Canada also signaled easing tensions. Bitcoin see-sawed on the $90,000 mark but eventually dipped below on March 7, and it has not reclaimed that level at the time of writing.

Meanwhile, Trump finalized the steel and aluminum hikes. Then on March 13, he threatened 200% tariffs on European wine, champagne and spirits if the EU moved forward with a 50% tax on American whiskey as a retaliation against steel and aluminum tax.

Bitcoin trades at around $84,000 on March 1 and March 16 despite large swings in between. Source: CoinGecko

Tone softens and Bitcoin starts rebound but ‘Liberation Day’ looms

By mid-March, the administration’s tone began to soften. On March 18, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said tariffs would be tailored to each country’s trade practices and could be avoided entirely if partners lowered their own barriers.

Financial markets, rattled for weeks, began to recover. On March 24, Bitcoin rose to $88,474 on reports that Trump’s next round of tariffs would be more targeted than initially feared.

Softer White House tone sparks Bitcoin recovery. Source: CoinGecko

“In the week leading up to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on April 2, expect market volatility, corporate lobbying for exemptions, preemptive price hikes, and global diplomatic efforts to mitigate the impact,” Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research said in a written analysis shared with Cointelegraph.

“After the tariffs take effect, anticipate inflation spikes, supply chain disruptions, and mixed job outcomes, with potential stock market shocks and retaliatory trade measures from partners like China and Canada possibly slowing US economic growth.”

Meanwhile, Liquify’s d’Anethan said investors should continue monitoring traditional market developments, especially with Bitcoin’s rising correlation with traditional indexes.

“With BTC’s correlation to the S&P 500 and other traditional assets, it wouldn’t be silly to discount tariffs and geopolitical maneuvering,” he said.

With April 2 approaching, crypto markets remain fragile — and investors are bracing for what “Liberation Day” might bring. Trump recently hinted while speaking to reporters that tariffs on automobiles, aluminum and pharmaceuticals are under consideration.

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Bitcoin (BTC) passed $88,000 after the March 25 Wall Street open as risk assets stayed highly sensitive to US trade tariffs.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC price gains anticipate classic April comeback

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD tightly clinging to the daily open.

US stocks opened modestly higher, building on a comeback that provided traders some long-awaited cause for optimism.

A key ingredient in stemming the risk-asset rout were cues from the US government and President Donald Trump over their planned round of trade tariffs set to begin on April 2. 

“Risk assets staged one of their strongest sessions of the year, helped by a temporary easing of fears around the April 2nd tariff deadline,” trading firm QCP Capital summarized in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers. 

“Trump signalled twice on Monday that trading partners might secure exemptions or reductions, offering a reprieve that helped soothe market jitters.”

BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

QCP noted that others were coming to believe that the worst of the equities setback had come and gone, including JPMorgan.

“Q2, and April in particular, has historically been one of the best periods for risk assets, second only to the festive December rally,” it added. 

“The S&P 500 has delivered an average annualised return of 19.6% in Q2, while Bitcoin has also recorded its second-best median performance during this stretch – again, trailing only Q4.”

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

As Cointelegraph reported, expectations for April among Bitcoin market participants are also high, given historical tendencies for strong price performance.

Statistics from monitoring resource CoinGlass put average returns for BTC/USD for both March and April at just under 13% over the past eleven years.

Bitcoin stares down major seller liquidity

Analyzing short-timeframe BTC price action, traders increasingly focused on the $90,000 mark on the day.

Related: Bitcoin flips ‘macro bullish’ amid first Hash Ribbon buy signal in 8 months

“$BTC Is still trading at a solid spot premium during this bounce,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades acknowledged in one of his latest X posts. 

“If it can maintain that while slowly making its way back into the previous range ($90K+), I’d be confident we’re due for a move back to new highs. For now it still remains a big resistance and price has been correlated to equities.”

BTC/USD 1-day chart with perps basis. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Meanwhile, CoinGlass showed ongoing sell-side liquidity just below $90,000 — previously attributed to market manipulation by a high-volume trader dubbed “Spoofy the Whale.”

Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, who coined the phrase, said that this entity alone would keep price trapped at around $87,500 going forward.

BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

This week, Alan said that another important level to flip to support is the yearly open at just above $93,000. Failure to do so, he warned, could still trigger a return to multimonth lows.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Opinion by: Michael Amar, co-founder of Chain of Events and general partner at v3nture

Once upon a time, in 1848, a man could walk into the wilderness on the brink of poverty and emerge, caked in mud, dust and days-old sweat, a multimillionaire. The discovery of gold in California in the mid-19th century ignited a fuse, causing explosive ripples that transformed the American economy.

In 2025, a relatively new resource, less shiny but no less brilliant and scarce, looks set to reshape the global economy and spark another race for accumulation. Only this time, there won’t be pickaxes and pans. There will be ASICs, algorithms and distributed ledger technology. 

Of course, this refers to Bitcoin (BTC), also known as digital gold.

Just as the gold rush spurred on banking, financial systems, lending, trading and changes to monetary policy, history is repeating itself with Bitcoin, digital payments, asset tokenization and crypto-politicians. Laws, regulations and culture changed to accommodate gold. They’re now doing the same for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies at large.

Exploring the historical parallels

The gold rush created wealth “out of thin air,” and Bitcoin is doing the same. With around $2 trillion in market value, those who adopted early and took the most risk are now millionaires (in fact, over 85,000 are confirmed) and, in some cases, billionaires (there are thought to be 17 of them). 

From the hundreds of thousands that descended on California, those who struck real gold used their newfound wealth to build railroads, telegraph lines and entire towns. Bitcoin’s early success stories used their financial muscle to stake further claims by developing applications, growing infrastructure businesses and nurturing the industry. Michael Saylor founded MicroStrategy, which had rebranded to Strategy. This business intelligence company holds over $48 billion worth of Bitcoin, while Changpeng Zhao founded the world’s biggest crypto exchange and is worth over $57 billion. 

Recent: Coinbase, Gemini CEO throws support behind Bitcoin-only US crypto reserve

Today’s business analysts and market experts should look into the American gold rush, where they’ll find striking similarities. Just as gold mining once attracted workers and investors, Bitcoin attracts institutions, startups, talent, governments and capital inflows. Gold-backed reserves changed global economics and drove gold demand. Will a US strategic Bitcoin reserve do the same?

Men started the gold rush with pickaxes and pans and ended it with hydraulic mining equipment. The earliest Bitcoin users mined with their home computers, whereas now there are enormous energy-efficient Bitcoin mining facilities, cutting-edge cooling apparatus and the Lightning Network. Scalability and efficiency have leaped forward.

Broader implications for international finance

Beyond instant wealth, infrastructure, monetary policy and economic ripples, there’s monetary sovereignty. Any country that establishes Bitcoin reserves as a hedge against inflation or geopolitical stability takes the future into its own hands. This is identical to gold, which has been used as a reserve for a long time. Since “The Nixon Shock” in 1971, however, the US dollar has decoupled from gold, creating an overdue opportunity for a new resource to fill its large gilded shoes.

Monetary sovereignty is also a major driving force for retail adoption, with Bitcoin offering protection against inflation and government policy through economic decentralization.

Addressing skepticism from different audiences

Widespread enthusiasm among tech leaders, libertarians, celebrities, businesses and popular political figures has met with years of fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) from regulators, skeptics and some of the world’s most prominent investment managers. They say that Bitcoin has no real value, but let it be said that gold is just a shiny, semi-scarce rock.

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock — the world’s largest investment company with $10 trillion in assets under management — once called Bitcoin “an index of money laundering.” Over the years, he has gone from the messiah of the skeptics to purchasing 2.7% of the global Bitcoin supply and publicly stating his belief that it could reach $700,000 per BTC. “As I became a student of crypto, it was very clear to me that crypto is a currency of fear,” Fink said. “But that’s OK. If you’re frightened of the debasement of your currency or the economic or political stability of your country, you can have an international-based instrument called Bitcoin that can overcome those local fears.” 

If Fink can change his mind, so can other skeptics. 

In the run-up to his election win, Trump was quite vocal about a strategic Bitcoin reserve, and has continued to be. Things also seem to be taking shape in terms of individual states moving toward building their own reserves.

Gold has had a transformative effect on the world. Bitcoin is now here to relieve it of its duties.

Opinion by: Michael Amar, co-founder of Chain of Events and general partner at v3nture.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.