Chip-making giant Nvidia’s (NVDA) stock is flashing a major bearish signal — the last time this pattern appeared, it retraced nearly 50%. This may raise questions for the AI crypto sector, which has, at times, seemed to react to Nvidia’s price.

“NVDA just formed a Death Cross for the first time since April 2022. The last one sent shares plunging 47% over the next 6 months,” markets data platform Barchart said in a March 23 X post. A death cross is a bearish signal that occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of an asset’s market price falls below the 200-day SMA.

Source: Barchart

While Nvidia’s stock price formed the bearish signal before the trading week closed on March 21, several crypto AI tokens have risen since then. Render (RENDER) is up 4.06%, while Bittensor (TAO) and Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) are both up around 2.88%, according to CoinMarketCap data. 

Nvidia has been a closely watched stock for AI crypto traders in recent times. While some crypto analysts have linked AI crypto token surges to NVDA’s performance — like its nearly 70% rally ahead of Nvidia’s Q2 earnings in 2024 — there have also been times when no clear correlation emerged. 

After Nvidia’s Q1 2024 revenue jumped 18% from Q4 2023, some AI token traders seemed disappointed that the strong results didn’t lead to a similar move in AI crypto token prices.

Nvidia’s stock price is down 9.66% over the past month. Source: Google Finance

Some crypto traders recently suggested that the bubble has burst and that only AI tokens with real utility will thrive. Crypto trader CryptoCosta said in a March 22 X post, “The whole AI hype has already died down, now it’s time for those who provide market solutions and have revenue.”

Over the past month alone, the market capitalization of the top AI and big data crypto tokens has fallen 23.70%.

The largest token in this sector by market cap, Near Protocol (NEAR), has retraced almost 59% over the past 12 months, now trading at $2.70.

NEAR is trading at $2.70 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap

However, in a recent survey, nearly half of crypto pundits said they are bullish over crypto AI tokens prices.

Of the 2,632 respondents surveyed by CoinGecko between February and March, 25% were “fully bullish,” and 19.3% indicated they were “somewhat bullish” for crypto AI tokens in 2025. 

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Around 29% of respondents were neutral on the subject, while a combined 26.3% were either somewhat bearish or bearish. 

Meanwhile, former Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao recently said, “While crypto is the currency for AI, not every agent needs its own token.”

“Agents can take fees in an existing crypto for providing a service. Launch a coin only if you have scale. Focus on utility, not tokens,” he said.

In February, Sygnum said in an investment report, while AI agents have gained “remarkable traction” so far, they have “struggled to prove their worth beyond speculation.”

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A crypto analyst says inaccurate narratives still circulate in the cryptocurrency market, mainly based on skewed information rather than onchain data to back it up.

“Beware of misinformation. Despite the data, misleading narratives persist,” CryptoQuant contributor “onchained,” said in a March 22 market report.

“Such claims often lack onchain validation and are driven by sensationalist market sentiment rather than objective analysis,” the analyst said, adding:

“Trust data, not noise, verify sources and cross-check onchain metrics.”

Onchained pointed to the recent movements of Bitcoin (BTC) long-term holders (LTH) — those holding for over 155 days — as an example of false narratives clashing with real data.

The analyst pointed out that while some narratives claim Bitcoin long-term holders are “capitulating,” the data shows they’re remaining consistent. “The data leaves no room for speculation,” Onchained said.

The Inactive Supply Shift Index (ISSI) — which measures the degree to which long-dormant Bitcoin supply is shifting — “shows no meaningful LTH selling pressure, reinforcing a narrative of structural demand outpacing supply,” Onchained said.

Narratives are always being challenged

Crypto analytics platform Glassnode recently made a similar observation based on data, saying, “Long-Term Holder activity remains largely subdued, with a notable decline in their sell-side pressure.”

Crypto market narratives are constantly changing and being challenged.

One long-standing crypto narrative under debate is the relevance of the 4-year cycle theory, which suggests that Bitcoin’s price follows a predictable pattern tied to its halving event every four years.

Source: Tomas Greif

MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said in a March 22 X post, “I assume that we can erase the entire 4-year cycle theory and that we’re in a longer cycle for Altcoins.” 

Related: Crypto markets will be pressured by trade wars until April: Analyst

Echoing a similar sentiment, Bitwise Invest chief investment officer Matt Hougan recently said that “the traditional four-year cycle is over in crypto” due to the recent change in the US government’s stance.

“Crypto has moved in four-year cycles since its earliest days. But the change in DC introduces a new wave that will play out over a decade,” Hougan said.

Alongside this, some analysts are even debating whether the entire Bitcoin bull market is over.

CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju said in a March 17 X post, “Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”

Ju said all Bitcoin onchain metrics indicate a bear market. “With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices,” Ju said. 

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Cryptocurrency wallet providers are getting more sophisticated, but so are bad actors — which means the battle between security and threats is at a deadlock, says a hardware wallet firm executive.

“It will always be a cat and mouse game,” Ledger chief experience officer Ian Rogers told Cointelegraph when describing the constant race between crypto wallet firms adding new security features and hackers finding more advanced ways to access victims’ wallets.

Rogers said, unfortunately, the most straightforward scams work best because scammers rely on people making simple mistakes.

“People give their 24-word phrases to people every day, so as long as that happens, then they are going to go for the low-cost tax,” he said, adding:

“Anyone who asks for your 24 words is a criminal.”

Rogers highlighted a common crypto scam where victims get tricked by replies under “any post on Twitter about crypto,” with messages like “DM me, and I’ll help you.”

“You know that scammers are always asking you for your 24 words,” Rogers said. CertiK chief business officer Jason Jiang recently told Cointelegraph that being aware of phishing attacks on social media can drastically increase a user’s crypto security.

Sometimes, scammers hijack the accounts of well-known industry figures to post malicious links, making it even harder for users to spot the scam.

In September 2023, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin’s account was compromised, leading to a fake NFT giveaway that tricked followers into clicking — only to drain over $691,000 from their wallets.

Source: CertiK

Rogers emphasized that this will always be the case, just as bad actors aren’t limited to crypto — scams like fake emails from the “Nigerian president” have been around for years.

“The cost of the attack is always commensurate with the size of the prize, right?” Rogers said. In 2024, crypto hacks jumped 15% from 2023, with over $3 billion stolen.

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Meanwhile, pig butchering scams have emerged as one of the most pervasive threats to crypto investors, with losses on the Ethereum network costing the industry $5.5 billion across 200,000 identified cases in 2024.

Pig butchering is a type of phishing scheme that involves prolonged and complex manipulation tactics to trick investors into willingly sending their assets to fraudulent crypto addresses.

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