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Bitfinex Bitcoin longs hit 6-month high — Will BTC price follow?

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Bullish Bitcoin (BTC) positions using leverage on the Bitfinex exchange surged to their highest level in nearly six months, reaching 80,333 BTC on March 20—equivalent to $6.92 billion. The 27.5% increase in Bitcoin margin longs since Feb. 20 has fueled speculation that the 12.5% BTC price gain from the $76,700 low on March 11 is driven by leverage and may not be sustainable.

Bitfinex BTC margin longs, BTC. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

However, Bitcoin’s price does not always move in tandem with bullish leveraged positions on Bitfinex. For example, in the three weeks ending July 12, 2024, large investors added 13,620 BTC in margin longs, yet Bitcoin’s price fell from $65,500 to $58,000. Similarly, a two-week-long increase of 8,990 BTC in margin longs took place leading into Sept. 11, 2024, and this coincided with a price decline from $60,000.

Bitcoin margin traders are highly profitable but also risk-tolerant

In the long term, these savvy investors have timed the market well, as Bitcoin’s price eventually surpassed $88,000 in November 2024, while margin long positions were reduced by 30% by year-end. Essentially, these traders are highly profitable but exhibit a much higher risk tolerance and patience than the average investor. Therefore, an increase in leverage demand does not necessarily translate into upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

Additionally, the cost of borrowing Bitcoin remains relatively low, creating opportunities for market-neutral arbitrage as traders capitalize on cheap interest rates. Currently, borrowing BTC for 60 days on Bitfinex carries an annualized cost of 3.14%, while the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures stands at 4.5%. In theory, traders can exploit this spread through ‘cash and carry’ arbitrage, profiting without direct exposure to price fluctuations.

Even if one assumes that most of the $1.48 billion in margin longs are not arbitrage trades—meaning these large investors are genuinely betting on Bitcoin’s price appreciation—other exchanges may have offset part of this move. For instance, demand for Bitcoin margin longs has declined significantly on OKX over the same 30-day period.

Bitcoin margin long-to-short ratio at OKX. Source: OKX

The Bitcoin long-to-short margin ratio on OKX currently shows longs outweighing shorts by a factor of 15, the lowest level in over three months. Historically, excessive confidence has driven this ratio above 40, most recently in late February when Bitcoin’s price surged past $105,000. Conversely, a ratio below 5 typically signals a strong bearish sentiment.

Bitcoin options price balances risks of upside and downside fluctuations in BTC price

To rule out external factors limited to margin markets, one should also analyze Bitcoin options. If traders anticipate a correction, demand for put (sell) options will rise, pushing the 25% delta skew above 6%. Conversely, during bullish periods, this metric typically falls below -6%.

Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call). Source: Laevitas.ch

Between March 10 and March 18, the Bitcoin options market showed signs of bearish sentiment but has since shifted to a neutral stance. This suggests that whales and market makers are pricing similar risks for both upward and downward price movements. Given the margin market trends on OKX and the current pricing of BTC options, a Bitcoin bull run is far from a consensus expectation.

Bitcoin’s lack of bullish momentum can partly be attributed to the higher inflation outlook and weaker economic growth projections presented by the US Federal Reserve on March 19. Concerns over a potential recession, exacerbated by a global tariff war, have made investors more risk-averse. As a result, even though whales are increasing their exposure through Bitcoin margin longs, overall market sentiment remains subdued.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Brazil’s data watchdog upholds ban on World crypto payments

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Brazil’s data protection agency has upheld its decision to restrict cryptocurrency compensation tied to the World ID project, citing user privacy concerns. 

The National Data Protection Authority (ANDP) rejected a petition by World ID developer Tools For Humanity to review its ban on offering financial compensation to users who provide biometric data through iris scans, the agency said in a March 25 announcement.  

ANDP will “maintain the suspension of the granting of financial compensation, in the form of cryptocurrency (Worldcoin – WLD) or in any other format, for any World ID created by collecting iris scans of personal data subjects in Brazil,” a translated version of the announcement reads. 

The company faces a daily fine of 50,000 Brazilian reais ($8,800) if it resumes data collection activities. 

Cointelegraph reached out to Tools for Humanity but had not received a response at the time of publication.

World ID verification in Brazil was short-lived, with the ANDP banning data collection more than two months after it was launched in the country. Source: Worldcoin

ANDP’s investigation into World, formerly known as Worldcoin, began in November of last year amid concerns that financial rewards could compromise users’ ability to consent to offering sensitive biometric data. 

The controversial “World ID” is created when users agree to iris scans, which generates a unique digital passport that can authenticate humans online. 

As Cointelegraph reported, Tools For Humanity was ordered to stop offering services to Brazilians as of Jan. 25. 

Related: Blockchain identity platform Humanity Protocol valued at $1.1B after fundraise

Race for digital identity solution heats up

Although World ID has run afoul of Brazilian law, the use of digital identification methods is growing in other markets due to the rise of AI deepfakes and Sybil attacks.

The rise of bots and AI is also watering down online discourse on social media platforms such as X and Facebook. As Cointelegraph reported, up to 15% of X accounts are believed to be bots. 

Research from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis also showed that generative AI is making crypto scams more profitable by enabling the creation of fake identities. 

Some companies are attempting to create digital identity solutions without triggering privacy concerns and regulatory crackdowns. Earlier this year, Billions Network launched its own digital identity platform that doesn’t require biometric data. 

The platform is based on a zero-knowledge verification technology known as Circom and has already been tested by major financial institutions such as HSBC and Deutsche Bank.

Magazine: 9 curious things about DeepSeek R1: AI Eye

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Cboe seeks approval for Fidelity's Solana ETF

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Cboe BZX Exchange, a US securities exchange, has requested permission to list a proposed Fidelity exchange-traded fund (ETF) holding Solana (SOL), according to March 25 filings. 

The request now sits with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which must approve the filing before trading of the Fidelity Solana Fund can commence on the exchange.

This is the latest in a spate of filings with the federal agency by exchanges and fund sponsors seeking to launch ETFs holding SOL and other cryptocurrencies. 

On March 12, Cboe filed to list another spot SOL ETF sponsored by asset manager Franklin Templeton.

Source: James Seyfart/Bloomberg Intelligence

Related: Solana CME futures tip impending US ETF approvals — Exec

Numerous filings

Cboe’s filing comes after asset manager Volatility Shares launched an ETF using financial derivatives known as futures to track the performance of spot SOL. 

Launched in March, Volatility Shares Solana ETF (SOLZ) and the Volatility Shares 2X Solana ETF (SOLT) are the first ETFs providing US investors with exposure to Solana’s native token. The SOLT ETF tracks SOL’s performance with 2x leverage. 

Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence peg the odds at 70% that US regulators approve a spot SOL ETF this year, according to a February post on the X platform. 

Other asset managers seeking to list spot SOL ETFs include Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Canary and Bitwise, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

On March 17, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the US’s largest derivatives exchange, launched SOL futures contracts. Experts say this is further indication that spot SOL ETFs will soon be approved in the US.

Roughly a dozen asset managers are seeking the SEC’s approval to launch altcoin ETFs in the US. The proposed ETFs for altcoins range from Litecoin (LTC) and XRP (XRP) to Dogecoin (DOGE) and Official Trump (TRUMP).

Issuers are also asking for the SEC to approve changes to existing ETFs, including allowances for staking, options and in-kind redemptions. 

The SEC eased its stance on cryptocurrency after US President Donald Trump began his second term in January. 

Under former President Joe Biden, the SEC brought upwards of 100 lawsuits against crypto firms, alleging various securities law violations. In 2024, the regulator greenlighted spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs but stymied proposed ETFs tied to other cryptocurrencies.

Magazine: Memecoins are ded — But Solana ‘100x better’ despite revenue plunge

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Prospective SEC chair discloses up to $327M assets with his wife

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Former US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) member Paul Atkins disclosed combined employment assets of at least $327 million with his wife before a scheduled confirmation hearing with the US Senate Banking Committee.

According to a financial disclosure report made public by the US Office of Government Ethics on March 25, Atkins and his spouse, Sarah Humphreys, held up to a combined $327 million worth of assets, in part through their respective stakes in the prospective SEC chair’s consulting firm Patomak Global Partners and Tamko Building Products.

Sarah and her family members reportedly control a 75% stake in the roofing business founded by her grandfather.

Atkins personally disclosed up to $78.8 million in total employment assets — many of them up to $15,000 each — between $25,000,001 and $50 million in membership interest at Patomak, between $250,001 and $500,000 in call options at the real-world asset tokenization platform Securitize, and between $50,001 and $100,000 at financial technology company Pontoro.

If confirmed as an SEC commissioner, Atkins stated he would resign as CEO of Patomak and divest his membership interest, as well as divest his stock options at Securitize. 

The financial disclosure was made public before Atkins was scheduled to answer questions from US lawmakers in the Senate Banking Committee on March 27 for his nomination as an SEC commissioner. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, ranking member on the committee, called on Atkins to be prepared to answer questions related to his “deep involvement with FTX and other high-paying crypto clients.”

Related: What to expect at Paul Atkins’ SEC confirmation hearing

Atkins could also have some Republican allies on the committee and face some softball questions during his hearing. The prospective SEC commissioner previously met with Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, who told Cointelegraph she expected he would “work quickly to provide regulatory certainty for the digital asset industry.”

Conflicts of interest regulating digital assets?

In addition to Atkins saying he would divest interests potentially causing conflicts of interest regulating the crypto industry, other government officials in the Trump administration have claimed to take similar steps. David Sacks filed a notice on March 5 suggesting that his venture capital firm sold more than $200 million in crypto and related stocks ahead of assuming his role as the White House AI and crypto czar.

President Donald Trump also faces criticism from lawmakers and figures in the crypto industry due to his family’s involvement with the firm World Liberty Financial and the launch of his memecoin in January.

Atkins’ March 27 hearing will mark the first time US lawmakers will consider his nomination since Trump put his name forward as a potential replacement to former SEC Chair Gary Gensler in December. Commissioner Mark Uyeda became acting chair of the agency following Gensler’s departure on Jan. 20.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

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