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‘We are worried about a recession,’ but there’s a silver lining — Cathie Wood

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ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood believes the White House is underestimating the recession risk facing the US economy stemming from US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies — an oversight that will eventually force the president and Federal Reserve to enact pro-growth policies.

Speaking virtually at the Digital Asset Summit in New York on March 18, Wood said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent isn’t worried about a recession. 

However, Wood said, “We are worried about a recession,” adding, “We think the velocity of money is slowing down dramatically.”

Cathie Wood speaks virtually at the Digital Asset Summit. Source: Cointelegraph

A slowdown in the velocity of money means capital is changing hands less frequently, which is typically associated with a recession, as consumers and businesses spend and invest less money. 

“I think what’s happening, though, is that if we do have a recession, declining GDP, that this is going to give the president and the Fed many more degrees of freedom to do what they want in terms of tax cuts and monetary policy,” said Wood. 

Investors believe the first domino could fall in the coming months when the Fed puts an end to its quantitative tightening program — something bettors on Polymarket believe is 100% certain to happen before May.

Meanwhile, expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Fed in the second half of the year are growing, according to CME Group’s Fed Fund futures prices.

The probability of rates being lower than they are now by the Fed’s June 18 meeting is nearly 65%. Source: CME Group

Related: As Trump tanks Bitcoin, PMI offers a roadmap of what comes next

Focus remains long term

ARK and Cathie Wood have been active cryptocurrency investors for many years. ARK and 21Shares’ spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) was approved on Jan. 11, 2024, and currently has more than $3.9 billion in net assets, according to Yahoo Finance data. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded heavy outflows in recent weeks, but the overall trend shows investors are holding their positions. Source: Farside

ARK also offers crypto portfolio solutions to wealth managers through its partnership with Eaglebrook Advisors. 

Wood told the New York Digital Asset Summit that “long-term innovation wins as we go through these trials and tribulations,” referring to the recent market correction. 

When asked if crypto assets remain an “investable arc” over the long term, Wood said this strategy was the cornerstone of ARK’s investment approach. 

“[W]e’ve built out positions in more than just the big three,” she said, referring to Bitcoin, Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL).

This long-term arc is being supported by favorable regulations, which have improved the investment landscape dramatically. 

Pro-crypto policy changes are “giving institutions the green light, and if you look at our studies as long ago as 2016, we wrote a paper called ‘Bitcoin: Ringing the Bell for a New Asset Class,’ and, yet many institutions just dismissed it out of hand,” said Wood.

Now, institutions are looking at ARK’s studies and saying they “have a fiduciary responsibility to expose [their] clients to a new asset class.”

Magazine: Bitcoin ETFs make Coinbase a ‘honeypot’ for hackers and governments — Trezor CEO

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Coin Market

Bad news Bitcoin bulls, the long-hoped-for retail is already here: CryptoQuant

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Bitcoin bulls who still think the cycle peak has yet to come as retail investors haven’t piled in yet might be using an outdated playbook, according to a crypto executive.

“The idea that the cycle isn’t over just because onchain retail activity is absent needs reconsideration,” CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju said in a March 19 X post. 

Ju said that those tracking retail movements using only onchain metrics will not have seen the full picture. 

“Retail is likely entering through ETFs — the paper Bitcoin layer — which doesn’t show up onchain,” Ju said. 

“This keeps the realized cap lower than if the funds were flowing directly to exchange deposit wallets,” he added, noting that 80% of spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows come from retail investors — a trend that Binance analysts already once observed in October last year. 

Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, inflows have totaled around $35.88 billion. Source: Farside

At the time, the analysts said most of the ETF buying likely came from retail investors moving their holdings from wallets and exchanges into funds with more regulatory protection.

Ju was responding to counter-arguments over his earlier prediction on X that the “Bitcoin bull cycle is over” on March 17. 

“I’ve been calling for a bull market over the past two years, even when indicators were borderline. Sorry to change my view, but it now looks pretty clear that we’re entering a bear market,” he said.

Ju explained that certain indicators are showing a lack of new liquidity, which is likely being driven by macro factors.

He also clarified when he said the bull cycle was over, he meant Bitcoin could take “6-12 months” to break its all-time high, not that it’s about to crash.

Related: Bitcoin is just seeing a ‘normal correction,’ cycle peak is yet to come: Analysts

Traders often look at retail investor activity to spot signs of exhaustion or as a signal to start selling when the market appears overheated.

There are several sentiment indicators which help market participants understand the level of retail interest in the market. One of these is the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, reading a “Fear” score of 31, down 18 points from its “Neutral” score of 49 yesterday.

Other common signals used to track the level of retail interest in the crypto market include Google search trends for “crypto” and related keywords and the popularity of crypto applications in major app stores worldwide.

While the Google search score for “crypto” worldwide was at a score of 100 during the week of Jan. 19 – 25, when Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $109,000 and US President Donald Trump’s inauguration, it has since declined by almost 62%.

The amount of searches on Google for “crypto” has declined almost 62% since the end of January. Source: Google Trends

At the time of publication, the Google search score for “crypto” stands at 38, with Bitcoin trading 22% below its January all-time high.

Magazine: Memecoins are ded — But Solana ‘100x better’ despite revenue plunge

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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SMS scammers posing as Binance have an even trickier way to fool victims

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Australian federal police have alerted over 130 people of a new text message scam aimed at crypto users that copies the same “sender ID” as legitimate crypto exchanges such as Binance. 

The impersonation scam involves the fraudsters sending out messages through text and encrypted messaging platforms by impersonating a Binance representative, telling users of a crypto account breach and instructing them to set up a new wallet, the Australian Federal Police (AFP) said in a March 21 statement.

The text messages look real at first glance because they appear in the same legitimate text message thread as Binance communications.

Australia’s federal police say they have found at least 130 people who have been targeted by this scam so far. Source: Australian federal police

“The messages allegedly contained fake verification codes and were often ‘spoofed,’ meaning they appeared in a legitimate existing message thread from the well-known cryptocurrency exchange,” the AFP said.

“A support phone number was also sent, but when the targets called it, they were instructed to protect their accounts by transferring their cryptocurrency to a ‘trust wallet,’ which was controlled by the scammer and allowed the assets to be stolen.”

Online text messaging services allow messages to be sent from a Sender ID, such as a company name, rather than a phone number and can be exploited to spoof text messages, according to a March 1, 2019 report by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

Once a phone receives the sham communication, it’s reportedly grouped based on the Sender ID, appearing in the same thread as other messages with the same ID. 

The AFP says it conducted an email and text blitz to warn the 130 people they identified who might have been exposed to this scam. 

AFP Commander Cybercrime Operations Graeme Marshall said once the funds are transferred to the thief’s wallet, they are quickly transferred through a network of wallets, making seizure or recovery difficult.

The attack mimics another string of scam messages reported by X users on March 14, where fraudulent emails spoofing Coinbase and Gemini attempted to trick users into setting up a new wallet using pre-generated recovery phrases controlled by scammers.

Related: Australia’s ‘Barefoot Investor’ takes on crypto scammers stealing his likeness

The police said red flags for this type of scam include unsolicited contact from someone claiming to be from Binance about an account breach, pressure to act quickly and prompts for a seed phrase.

Binance Chief Security Officer Jimmy Su said in the AFP statement scammers often impersonate trusted platforms, exploiting certain telecom loopholes to manipulate sender names and phone numbers. 

Su says Binance has a tool to confirm official Binance channels, and if in doubt, “stop and verify through official sources,” such as the contact information on the official website.

Source: Binance Australia

In December last year, the Australian government announced plans for an SMS Sender ID Register and an enforceable industry standard to crack down on similar scams, which have impacted Australian airline Qantas and tech giant Apple in the past. 

Under the standard, telecom companies must determine whether messages sent under a brand name correspond with the legitimate registered sender and submit and provide their legitimate Sender IDs for the register. 

The register is set to launch in late 2025, with a pilot SMS Sender ID Register operating as a stopgap in the meantime, according to Australia’s minister for communications, Michelle Rowland. 

In August last year, the AFP revealed that a total of 382 million Australian dollars ($269 million) had been lost by Australians to investment scams during the previous 12 months, with around 47% of them being crypto-related. 

Magazine: Lazarus Group’s favorite exploit revealed — Crypto hacks analysis

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Eric Trump joins Metaplanet’s strategic board of advisers

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Bitcoin-stacking firm Metaplanet has appointed US President Donald Trump’s son Eric to its newly established strategic board of advisers to further Metaplanet’s mission to become a “global leader in the Bitcoin economy.”

”His business acumen, love of the Bitcoin community and global hospitality perspective will be invaluable in accelerating Metaplanet’s vision of becoming one of the world’s leading Bitcoin Treasury Companies,” Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich said in a March 21 announcement on X.

”As a globally recognized business leader and entrepreneur, Eric Trump brings a wealth of experience in real estate, finance, brand development, and strategic business growth and has become a leading voice and advocate of digital asset adoption worldwide,” Metaplanet added.

*Metaplanet Appoints Eric Trump to Strategic Board of Advisors* pic.twitter.com/v3CaFgLJkW

— Metaplanet Inc. (@Metaplanet_JP) March 21, 2025

The move is part of Metaplanet’s plan to establish a board of influential voices, speakers and thought leaders around the world who are committed to furthering Bitcoin adoption.

Related: Bitcoin price thaws after Trump statement — Trader says ‘stay nimble and cashed up’

Metaplanet shares increased 17.8% to 4,730 Japanese yen ($31.74) over the first 80 minutes of the March 21 trading day on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Google Finance data shows.

Metaplanet currently holds 3,050 Bitcoin (BTC) — worth nearly $4.1 billion — making it the 12th largest corporate Bitcoin holder, BitBo’s BitcoinTreasuries.NET data shows.

The Japan-based firm has been adopting a range of financial instruments to bolster its Bitcoin reserve since it made its first purchase on April 23, 2024.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

Metaplanet is thrilled to welcome Eric Trump to our newly formed Strategic Board of Advisors. His business expertise and passion for BTC will help drive our mission forward as we continue building one of the world’s leading Bitcoin Treasury Companies.

Welcome aboard @EricTrump! pic.twitter.com/c0bpC1ojcg

— Simon Gerovich (@gerovich) March 21, 2025

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

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