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Ethereum price in ‘cursed’ downtrend which could continue well into 2025 — Analyst

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Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has ventured into oversold territory multiple times against Bitcoin (BTC) in recent months, but the altcoin has yet to show any signs of finding a price bottom. The trading situation is actually quite similar to a previous scenario, and ETH’s market structure suggests that it could repeat itself in Q2 to Q3 of this year.

Ether’s repeat breakdowns point to more downside

The relative strength index (RSI) on ETH’s 3-day timeframe remains below 30, a level that typically signals a potential bounce.

However, historical patterns show that previous dips into oversold conditions have failed to mark a definitive bottom. Each instance has been followed by another leg lower, reflecting persistent bearish momentum.

ETH/BTC three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

Since mid-2024, the ETH/BTC pair has undergone repeat breakdowns, with losses of around 13%, 21%, 25%, and 19.5% occurring in rapid succession. Moreover, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs are trending lower, confirming the lack of bullish strength.

X-based market analyst @CarpeNoctom highlighted ETH’s negative price performance, noting that the ETH/BTC pair has failed to confirm a bullish divergence—when the price makes lower lows but the RSI makes higher lows—on its weekly chart.

ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/CryptoNoctom

ETH ETF outflows and onchain data hint at further weakness

The “cursed” ETH/BTC downtrend stands out when compared to the broader crypto market. This includes persistent outflows witnessed across the US-based spot ETH ETFs, as well as negative onchain data.

The net flows into the spot Ether ETFs have dropped 9.8% in March to $2.54 billion. In comparison, the spot Bitcoin ETF net flows are down 2.35% in the same period to $35.74 billion.

Source: Ted Pillows

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s gas fees—measured by daily median gas consumption on mainnet—were sitting around 1.12 GWEI as of March, down by nearly 50 times what they were just a year ago.

Ethereum median gas fees vs. ETH price (in dollar terms). Source: Nansen

“Despite the second rally of ETH price into 2024 year end, activity on mainnet as measured by gas consumption never fully recovered,” data analytics platform Nansen wrote in its latest report, adding:

“This is downstream of a few things but much of the activity has shifted to Solana and L2s over 2024.”

Nansen argued that they remain cautiously bearish on ETH due to its unfavorable risk/reward ratio compared to BTC and lower-valued altcoins with niche market focus.

A lack of demand for ETH relative to Bitcoin is further visible in its future volume data.

Notably, Bitcoin futures volume has rebounded 32% from its Feb. 23 lows, reaching $57 billion on March 18. In comparison, ETH’s trading activity remains mostly flat, according to onchain data platform Glassnode.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana futures volume. Source: Glassnode

The ETH/BTC pair could drop another 15%

ETH/BTC pair is forming a bear pennant pattern on the daily chart, characterized by a period of consolidation within converging trendlines forming after a steep decline.

Related: Standard Chartered drops 2025 ETH price estimate by 60% to $4K

A bear pennant technically resolves when the price drops below the lower trendline and falls by as much as the previous downtrend’s height. Applying the same rule on ETH/BTC brings its downside target for April to 0.01968 BTC, down 15% from the current levels.

ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Furthermore, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs remain in a sharp downward trajectory, with the ETH/BTC pair trading far below these key levels, signaling a persistent bear market structure.

Despite the looming downside risk, a bullish invalidation could occur if ETH/BTC breaks above the pennant’s upper resistance and flips the 50-day EMA into support.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Hester Peirce calls for SEC rulemaking to ‘bake in’ crypto regulation

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US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) member Hester Peirce offered a few suggestions for longer-lasting changes in crypto regulation between administrations with potentially different views.  

Speaking at the DC Blockchain Summit on March 26, Peirce, who heads the SEC’s crypto task force, said she expected that the commission could create more “durability” for digital asset regulations through rulemaking at the agency and legislation in Congress. Such rulemaking and laws, according to the SEC commissioner, would be in contrast to guidance issued by the agency, such as a recent statement suggesting that memecoins do not qualify as securities. 

“I hope people won’t be sitting around thinking about the Howey test,” said Commissioner Peirce, speculating on the direction the SEC was headed. “Your lawyers have to think about these things, I’m not saying that they’ll not be relevant, but it shouldn’t be the kind of thing that is driving what you decide to build. I want there to be enough clarity on the question of what falls in our jurisdiction and then, if it does, how you can move forward.”

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce speaking at the DC Blockchain Summit on March 26. Source: Rumble

Peirce’s remarks came as the SEC has dropped several investigations or enforcement actions against major crypto firms, including Coinbase, Ripple, Kraken and Immutable. Some see the commission’s change in policy under acting chair Mark Uyeda as an attempt by US President Donald Trump to have the agency drop cases against firms that supported his 2024 campaign.

Related: SEC plans 4 more crypto roundtables on trading, custody, tokenization, DeFi

Since the 119th session of Congress started in January, lawmakers have suggested that they intend to move forward with a market structure bill clarifying the roles the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission will have over digital assets. On his third day in office, Trump signed an executive order establishing a working group that would explore, among other things, a regulatory framework for stablecoins.

Is a new SEC chair on the horizon?

Paul Atkins, whom Trump nominated as an SEC commissioner in December, will appear before US lawmakers in the Senate Banking Committee on March 27 and likely answer questions about his views on crypto regulation. Many in the crypto industry have indicated support for the former commissioner, who holds assets in real-world asset tokenization platform Securitize and controls a consulting firm tied to FTX.

If his nomination moves through the banking committee, it’s unclear whether the full Senate will vote to confirm Atkins to a term ending in 2031. He is expected to take over as SEC chair from Commissioner Uyeda.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

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Wyoming's Mark Gordon says state should issue stablecoin by July

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Wyoming Governor Mark Gordon said the state’s proposed stablecoin might be ready to launch by July, with the Wyoming Stable Token Commission announcing interoperability protocol LayerZero as a partner for the token launch.

Speaking at the DC Blockchain Summit on March 26, Gordon praised the speed and efficiency of the Wyoming state government in embracing blockchain technology. Anthony Apollo, the executive director of the Wyoming Stable Token Commission, also confirmed:

“The Stable Token Commission has formally engaged LayerZero as our token development and distribution partner, and we have stable tokens — Wyoming stable tokens — on several test networks.”

Wyoming, which is represented by pro-crypto Senator Cynthia Lummis, has been planning a state-issued stablecoin for years and has a history of embracing innovation in digital assets.

Governor Mark Gordon of Wyoming speaking at the 2025 DC Blockchain Summit. Source: Sei

Related: Yield-bearing stablecoins could kill banking — US Senator Gillibrand

Wyoming Stable Token Commission

Wyoming lawmakers introduced the “Wyoming Stable Token Act” in February 2022 to establish a state-issued stablecoin pegged to the value of the US dollar and redeemable for fiat.

The bill was signed into law in March 2023, enabling the state treasury to develop a team of professional accountants, auditors, and technical experts to issue and manage the state’s stablecoin supply.

Following the passage of the Stable Token Act, the state began staffing its Stable Token Commission with officers and executives to research and develop the state’s stablecoin.

The Wyoming Stable Token Act. Source: Wyoming Legislature

In August 2024, Governor Mark Gordon told an audience at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium that the state was eyeing a Q1 2025 launch window for the stablecoin, which would be backed by short-term US Treasury Bills and repurchase agreements.

At the time, Gordon slammed the “too big to fail” ethos of US economics post-2008 financial crisis and called the Federal Reserve Bank a “drag on innovation.”

More recently, Anthony Apollo, the executive director of the Wyoming Stable Token Commission, told Cointelegraph that the state’s public budget should be onchain to ensure transparency, accountability, and efficiency in government spending.

Magazine: Bitcoin payments are being undermined by centralized stablecoins

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Bitget CEO slams Hyperliquid’s handling of “suspicious” incident involving JELLY token

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Gracy Chen, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Bitget, criticized Hyperliquid’s handling of a March 26 incident on its perpetual exchange, saying it put the network at risk of becoming “FTX 2.0.”

On March 26, Hyperliquid, a blockchain network specializing in trading, said it delisted perpetual futures contracts for the JELLY token and would reimburse users after identifying “evidence of suspicious market activity” tied to the instruments. 

The decision, which was reached by consensus among Hyperliquid’s relatively small number of validators, flagged existing concerns about the popular network’s perceived centralization.

“Despite presenting itself as an innovative decentralized exchange with a bold vision, Hyperliquid operates more like an offshore [centralized exchange],” Chen said, after saying “Hyperliquid may be on track to become FTX 2.0.”

FTX was a cryptocurrency exchange run by Sam Bankman-Fried, who was convicted of fraud in the US after FTX’s abrupt collapse in 2022. 

Chen did not accuse Hyperliquid of specific legal infractions, instead emphasizing what she considered to be Hyperliquid’s “immature, unethical, and unprofessional” response to the event.

“The decision to close the $JELLY market and force settlement of positions at a favorable price sets a dangerous precedent,” Chen said. “Trust—not capital—is the foundation of any exchange […] and once lost, it’s almost impossible to recover.”

Source: Gracy Chen

Related: Hyperliquid delists JELLY perps, citing ‘suspicious’ activity

JELLY incident

The JELLY token was launched in January by Venmo co-founder Iqram Magdon-Ismail as part of a Web3 social media project dubbed JellyJelly. 

It initially reached a market capitalization of roughly $250 million before falling to the single digit millions in the ensuing weeks, according to DexScreener. 

On March 26, JELLY’s market cap soared to around $25 million after Binance, the world’s most popular crypto exchange, launched its own perpetual futures tied to the token. 

The same day, a Hyperliquid trader “opened a massive $6M short position on JellyJelly” and then “deliberately self-liquidated by pumping JellyJelly’s price on-chain,” Abhi, founder of Web3 company AP Collective, said in an X post.

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes said initial reactions to Hyperliquid’s JELLY incident overestimated the network’s potential reputational risks.

“Let’s stop pretending hyperliquid is decentralised. And then stop pretending traders actually [care],” Hayes said in an X post. “Bet you $HYPE is back where [it] started in short order cause degens gonna degen.”

Binance launched JELLY perps on March 26. Source: Binance

Growing pains

On March 12, Hyperliquid grappled with a similar crisis caused by a whale who intentionally liquidated a roughly $200 million long Ether (ETH) position. 

The trade cost depositors into Hyperliquid’s liquidity pool, HLP, roughly $4 million in losses after forcing the pool to unwind the trade at unfavorable prices. Since then, Hyperliquid has increased collateral requirements for open positions to “reduce the systemic impact of large positions with hypothetical market impact upon closing.” 

Hyperliquid operates the most popular leveraged perpetuals trading platform, controlling roughly 70% of market share, according to a January report by asset manager VanEck. 

Perpetual futures, or “perps,” are leveraged futures contracts with no expiry date. Traders deposit margin collateral, such as USDC, to secure open positions.

According to L2Beat, Hyperliquid has two main validator sets, each comprising four validators. By comparison, rival chains such as Solana and Ethereum are supported by approximately 1,000 and 1 million validators, respectively. 

More validators generally lessen the risk of a small group of insiders manipulating a blockchain. 

Magazine: What are native rollups? Full guide to Ethereum’s latest innovation

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