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Bitcoin needs weekly close above $81K to avoid downside ahead of FOMC

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Bitcoin needs to close above the key $81,000 weekly level to avoid more downside volatility ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which will offer investors more cues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy for 2025.

Bitcoin (BTC) price fell over 3% during the past week, to trade above $83,748 as of 9:33 a.m. in UTC, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.

Bitcoin price continues to risk significant downside volatility due to growing macroeconomic uncertainty around global trade tariffs,  according to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.

BTC/USD, 1-year chart. Source: Cointelegraph

Closing the week above $81,000 will be key to avoid more Bitcoin downside, the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:

“The key level to watch for the weekly close is $81,000 range, holding above that would signal resilience, but if we see a drop below $76,000, it could invite more short-term selling pressure.”

The analyst’s comments come days ahead of the next FOMC meeting scheduled for March 19. Markets are currently pricing in a 98% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady, according to the latest estimates of the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Source: CME Group’s FedWatch tool

The outcome of the meeting may significantly impact Bitcoin investor sentiment, said Lee, adding:

“The market largely expects the Fed to hold rates steady, but any unexpected hawkish signals could put pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.”

“Even a dovish surprise, like a rate cut, might not be the immediate boost some are hoping for, as investors are still weighing macro uncertainties,” added the analyst.

Related: US Rep. Byron Donalds to introduce bill codifying Trump’s Bitcoin reserve

Bitcoin close above $85k may reignite investor optimism for more upside: analyst

Other analysts are seeing a silver lining in Bitcoin’s stagnant price action.

A weekly close above $85,000 may inspire more investor confidence and lead to the next breakout, according to Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at Brickken real-world asset tokenization platform.

The market analyst told Cointelegraph:

“Traders and investors alike are keeping a close eye on the $80,000 support and the $85,000–$90,000 resistance, with a break above the latter potentially sparking a strong upward movement.”

While Bitcoin’s short-term momentum may be limited by the upcoming economic releases, the regulatory developments around Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plan may gradually bring more market optimism and mass adoption, added the analyst.

Related: Bitcoin’s next catalyst: End of $36T US debt ceiling suspension

Trump’s Bitcoin reserve came one step closer to fruition on March 14, after US Representative Byron Donalds introduced a bill that seeks to ensure the Bitcoin reserve becomes a permanent fixture, preventing future administrations from dismantling it through executive action.

If the bill is passed, it would ensure that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the US Digital Asset Stockpile could not be eliminated via executive actions by a future administration.

The bill will require at least 60 votes in the Senate and a House majority to pass. With Republicans holding a Senate majority — and amid a generally more crypto-friendly environment — the bill has a chance of passing.

Magazine: SCB tips $500K BTC, SEC delays Ether ETF options, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Feb. 23 – March 1

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Four suspects charged in home invasion of streamer Amouranth

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Four suspects were charged in connection with the home invasion of online streamer Amouranth, whose real name is Kaitlyn Siragusa. The streamer says she was held at gunpoint by several individuals demanding that she hand over the private keys to her crypto.

According to Fox 26, the suspects include Dylan Nesho Campbell, Bryan Anthony Salazar Guerrero and two additional suspects between the ages of 16-17.

Campbell and Guerrero were each charged with aggravated kidnapping and aggravated robbery with a deadly weapon, as was the 17-year-old suspect.

Siragusa reported that several armed individuals entered her home late at night on March 2, beat her, and held her at gunpoint, demanding her cryptocurrency.

Source: Amouranth

Luckily, her husband was on speakerphone, which the gunmen took in an attempt to access a crypto app. The husband, having been alerted to the situation, grabbed a handgun while attempting to gauge where the armed men were in the home.

The online streamer led the assailants around the home and convinced them to start looking for a cold storage device.

As the armed robbers were looking for the device, Siragusa ran upstairs to her husband, who was also watching the situation unfold on the home’s network of cameras.

Once she was safely upstairs, her husband fired off three rounds at assailants, likely shooting one in the process before the home invaders retreated and law enforcement arrived at the scene.

Siragusa’s husband later revealed that he was the one posting from her account as the incident unfolded. Source: Amouranth

The streamer previously disclosed that she held roughly 211 Bitcoin, worth over $20 million in November 2024, to online followers — making her a target for armed robbery.

Related: UK authorizes charges against NCA officer for alleged Bitcoin theft

Crypto kidnappings and extortion on the rise

The incident is merely the latest in a string of kidnappings and armed robberies aimed at crypto holders.

In January 2025, a UK court sentenced seven gang members for the kidnapping and extortion of a crypto investor, who was repeatedly assaulted and coerced into handing over funds over several months.

During that same month, reports emerged that Ledger co-founder David Balland was kidnapped in France and held for a crypto ransom before being rescued by law enforcement.

Magazine: Scam AI ‘kidnappings’, $20K robot chef, Ackman’s AI plagiarism war: AI Eye

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Burning quantum-vulnerable BTC is the best option — Jameson Lopp

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Jameson Lopp, the chief security officer at Bitcoin (BTC) custody company Casa, recently argued against allowing quantum recovery of lost BTC and said that burning these coins to protect the integrity of the protocol was the preferable option.

According to Lopp, allowing individuals or institutions with quantum computers to recover lost coins violates the Bitcoin network’s properties of censorship resistance, transaction immutability, and conservatism.

In a March 16 article, the crypto executive wrote that allowing quantum recovery is not good for anyone. Lopp added:

“Allowing quantum recovery of bitcoin is tantamount to wealth redistribution. What we would be allowing is for bitcoin to be redistributed from those who are ignorant of quantum computers to those who have won the technological race to acquire quantum computers.”

“It is hard to see a bright side to that scenario,” the executive continued before concluding that quantum recovery can only harm the security of the Bitcoin network.

The threat posed by quantum computers to Bitcoin continues to be hotly debated, with some arguing that the threat to modern encryption is decades away, others arguing that quantum computers will never be practical, and some warning that the threat is imminent.

Jameson Lopp discusses the risks posed by quantum computers at the Future of Bitcoin Conference in 2024. Source: Future of Bitcoin Conference

Related: Crypto, quantum computing on collision course as Microsoft debuts new chip

The great quantum scare of 2024

In October 2024, researchers at Shanghai University claimed they broke encryption standards used in military and banking applications using a quantum computer.

However, YouTuber “Mental Outlaw” later asserted that these claims were overblown and that the researchers did not break modern encryption standards.

The YouTuber said that the quantum computer used by the research team could only factorize the integer 2,269,753, which set a new record for quantum computers but still lagged behind some classical computers.

Mental Outlaw added that the device used in the experiment could only break a 22-bit key, while the record set by a classical computer was breaking an 892-bit key.

Modern encryption key sizes can range anywhere between 2048 to 4096 bits, with the option of extending key sizes in the future to make them even more secure.

Magazine: Bitcoin vs. the quantum computer threat: Timeline and solutions (2025–2035)

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Free speech and online privacy: Pavel Durov's rise to the top

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Telegram founder and free speech advocate Pavel Durov was born on Oct. 10, 1984, in St. Petersburg, Russia, and demonstrated an early knack for computer science, culminating in the entrepreneur establishing several successful online social media platforms.

While studying at Saint Petersburg State University, Durov became inspired by the success of the Facebook social media site and its founder, Mark Zuckerberg — eventually starting the social media platform VKontakte (VK) in 2006.

VK is a platform similar to Facebook but geared toward Russian speakers, and it is one of the largest social media platforms in the world.

A picture of Pavel Durov as a teenager. Source: Cointelegraph

The meteoric growth of the platform eventually attracted the attention of state regulators, who pressured the company to censor the platform and comply with government requests to provide user information.

Durov refused to comply with these requests out of a principled stance on freedom of speech, online expression, and user privacy, which caused the tech founder to be ousted from the company he started in 2014.

However, the tech founder was already hard at work on his next venture before departing VK, a messaging platform that has become a household name in crypto — Telegram.

Related: TON Society celebrates Pavel Durov leaving France as free speech win

Pavel and his brother Nikolai Durov launch Telegram

The Durov brothers launched Telegram in 2013. Since then, the platform has garnered over 950 million users worldwide due to its privacy-enhancing technology, which encrypts messages end to end.

Telegram also has robust features that include decentralized web surfing, a torrent of mini-apps and games.

The platform also has a symbiotic relationship with The Open Network (TON) — a separate blockchain network that has become a staple for users of the messaging application.

The Telegram founder discussing messaging applications at TechCrunch’s Disrupt conference. Source: TechCrunch

According to Forbes, the Telegram founder has a net worth of $17.1 billion as of March 16, 2025 — mainly through his ownership of Telegram.

In March 2024, the entrepreneur announced that Telegram was nearing profitability and was considering an initial public offering to become a publicly traded company.

Pavel Durov is known for advocating individual freedoms, which is reflected in Telegram’s approach. In a January 2025 post, Durov wrote:

“I am proud that Telegram has supported freedom of speech long before it became politically safe to do so. Our values don’t depend on US electoral cycles.”

The Telegram founder’s libertarian ethos, commitment to free speech, and privacy eventually put the entrepreneur in the crosshairs of the French government.

Pavel Durov arrested in France amid cries of politically-motivated censorship

Pavel Durov was arrested in France on Aug. 24, 2024, due to a lack of content moderation on Telegram, and subsequently charged by French prosecutors with complicity with illegal activities and refusal to communicate with authorities.

Durov speaks with independent news host Tucker Carlson about free speech and privacy shortly before his arrest in August 2024. Source: Tucker Carlson

Shortly after his arrest, the Telegram founder posted bail and was released from custody on the condition that he remain in France during the legal proceedings.

The arrest drew strong reactions from the crypto community and free speech advocates worldwide, who criticized the French government for its actions, expressing concerns about potential pressure on Pavel Durov to modify Telegram’s policies or provide access to its encryption keys.

French President Emmanuel Macron was accused of orchestrating a politically motivated arrest, a claim the French leader denied, which only prompted more backlash from the crypto community.

On March 15, Pavel Durov reportedly left France and headed to Dubai, where Telegram is headquartered, after receiving permission from French law enforcement officials to leave the country.

However, it is unclear how long Durov will remain in Dubai as the global fight for freedom of speech, privacy, and autonomy continues.

Magazine: Did Telegram’s Pavel Durov commit a crime? Crypto lawyers weigh in

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