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Bitcoin risks correction below $90K on US-China trade war concerns

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Trade war concerns and traditional market volatility threaten a short-term BTC correction below $90,000, analysts told Cointelegraph.

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VanEck files for AVAX ETF

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Global investment manager VanEck has filed for an Avalanche (AVAX) exchange-traded fund (ETF) with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) seeking to offer investors direct exposure to the smart contract platform. 

A snippet of the S-1 filing was shared on social media on March 14 by Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, who has been closely monitoring developments in the crypto ETF industry.

Source: James Seyffart

The proposed VanEck Avalanche ETF intends to “reflect the performance of the price of “AVAX,” the native token of the Avalanche network, less the expenses of the Trust’s operations,” the prospectus read.

The proposed fund will hold AVAX and will “value its Shares daily based on the reported MarketVector Avalanche Benchmark Rate,” the prospectus said.

As Seyffart noted in a follow-up post, the Trust’s registration “was shared widely […] earlier this week, But this is the first actual filing with the SEC.”

Avalanche is the 16th largest crypto asset, with a total market capitalization of $7.7 billion. The blockchain is notable for its high throughput and Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) compatibility.

Related: US Bitcoin ETFs break outflow streak with $13.3M inflow

ETF race heats up

The overwhelming success of the US spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds and the election of a pro-crypto administration in Washington have triggered an influx of crypto fund applications at the SEC.

As Cointelegraph recently reported, nine issuers have filed for an XRP (XRP) ETF, with Franklin Templeton joining the race on March 11. Issuers are also vying to list ETFs linked to Solana (SOL), Litecoin (LTC) and Dogecoin (DOGE).

Although the SEC has punted its decision on these offerings, opting to designate a longer period for review, Seyffart and fellow Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchinas say there are “relatively high odds of approval” later this year.

A January report by JPMorgan said the approval of altcoin ETFs will likely trigger billions of dollars in inflows, underscoring the pent-up demand for cryptocurrencies. In particular, SOL and XRP products could attract the most institutional interest.

Assuming modest adoption rates, SOL and XRP ETFs could attract billions in their first 12 months. Source: JPMorgan

“When applying these so-called “adoption rates” to SOL and XRP, we see SOL attracting roughly $3 billion-$6 billion of net assets and XRP gathering $4 billion-$8 billion in net new assets,” the report said.

Related: US Bitcoin ETF assets break $100 billion

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Hyperliquid’s mystery 50x ETH whale is now betting on LINK

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The cryptocurrency trader whose ultra-leveraged Ether (ETH) trade tested Hyperliquid’s limits on March 12 has entered another multimillion-dollar position, this time in Chainlink (LINK), onchain data shows. 

On March 14, the anonymous whale, referred to on X as “ETH 50x Big Guy,” took out long positions in LINK worth approximately $31 million with 10 times leverage, according to Lookonchain, a Web3 analytics service. 

He placed the bets on Hyplerliquid and GMX, two popular perpetuals exchanges, Lookonchain said in a March 14 X post. Additionally, the whale accumulated roughly $12 million in spot LINK.

In the ensuing hours, the whale gradually reduced his LINK holdings through small swaps back into stablecoins, as per onchain data

Source: Lookonchain

Related: Hyperliquid ups margin requirements after $4 million liquidation loss

Massive trading gains

On March 12, the unidentified trader intentionally liquidated a roughly $200 million ETH long position, causing Hyperliquid’s liquidity pool, HLP, to lose $4 million. The trader’s profits topped roughly $1.8 million.

According to Lookonchain, the trader has earned nearly $17 million in the past month on Hyperliquid. 

The incident highlighted the challenges facing perpetual trading platforms such as Hyperliquid, which enable traders to take long or short positions many times larger than their deposited capital.

Hyperliquid said the trader’s actions did not qualify as an exploit and were instead a predictable consequence of the mechanics of its trading platform under extreme conditions. 

In response to the losses, Hyperliquid announced on March 13 revised collateral rules for traders with open positions to guard against similar edge cases in the future. 

Launched in 2024, Hyperliquid’s flagship perpetuals exchange has captured 70% of the market share, surpassing rivals such as GMX and dYdX, according to a January report by asset manager VanEck. 

Chainlink, the most popular decentralized oracle service, saw the price of its native LINK token increase by more than 150% in the weeks after President Donald Trump prevailed in the US election. 

It has since given up much of those gains, declining from highs of nearly $30 per token in December to less than $14 as of March 14, according to data from CoinGecko. 

Chainlink’s market capitalization is currently around $8.7 billion. 

Magazine: ‘Hong Kong’s FTX’ victims win lawsuit, bankers bash stablecoins: Asia Express

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Bitcoin apparent demand reaches lowest point in 2025 — CryptoQuant

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Apparent demand for Bitcoin (BTC) has hit the lowest level in 2025, dropping down into negative territory, as traders and investors take a cautious approach to risk-on assets due to macroeconomic uncertainty.

According to CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Apparent Demand metric, demand for Bitcoin has dropped down to a negative 142 on March 13.

Bitcoin’s apparent demand has been positive since September 2024, peaking around December 2024 before beginning the slow descent back down.

However, demand levels stayed positive until the beginning of March 2025 and have continued to decline since that point.

Fears of a prolonged trade war, geopolitical tensions, and stubbornly high inflation, which is cooling but is nevertheless above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, are causing traders to take a step back from riskier assets and into safe havens such as cash and government securities.

Bitcoin apparent demand. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: Worst crypto cycle ever? Community and history say otherwise

Crypto markets hemorrhage amid macroeconomic uncertainty

The post-election hype has died down following the mixed reactions from investors to the White House Crypto Summit on March 7, as the realities of macroeconomic uncertainty and the political process set in.

Despite lower-than-expected CPI inflation figures reported on March 12, the price of Bitcoin declined immediately following the news.

Crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced four consecutive weeks of outflows beginning in February and the early weeks of March as traditional financial investors sought a flight to safety.

According to CoinShares, outflows from crypto ETFs totaled $4.75 billion over the past four weeks, with BTC investment vehicles recording $756 million in month-to-date outflows.

Poor market sentiment and fears of a looming recession triggered a wave of panic selling that sent crypto prices tumbling.

Since the Trump inauguration on Jan. 20, the Total3 Market Cap, a measure of the total crypto market capitalization excluding Ether (ETH) and BTC, plummeted by over 27% from over $1.1 trillion to approximately $795 billion.

Bitcoin price action and analysis. Source: TradingView

Similarly, the price of Bitcoin declined by over 22% from a high of over $109,000 to present levels.

Bitcoin has been trading below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) since March 9, with occasional dips below the 200-day EMA during February.

Bitcoin’s Average True Range (ATR), a measure of volatility, is currently over 5,035 — indicating significant price swings as markets grapple with macro factors.

Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland recently argued that Bitcoin must secure a close of at least $89,000 on the weekly timeframe or risk a further correction to $69,000.

Magazine: Bitcoiners are ‘all in’ on Trump since Bitcoin ’24, but it’s getting risky

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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