80% OF VOTERS PRIORITIZE CANDIDATES’ POSITION ON ISSUES OVER PERSONAL QUALITIES IN CASTING THEIR VOTE
71% OF VOTERS SAY ELON MUSK’S ENDORSEMENT HAD THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON THE ELECTION
NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Nov. 18, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the November Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
The poll shows that Trump won over Harris by 2 points, driving the core issues of inflation and immigration most salient to the majority of Americans. Republicans closed in on the Democratic advantage of early and mail-in voting. Voters primarily relied on TV news channels for election coverage, followed by social media, and are split on whether coverage was biased. Looking ahead to the new administration, voters are divided on perceptions of Trump but want him to prioritize tackling inflation.
“This was an election about issues, and the economy and immigration played the biggest roles. Trump won on a clear message of middle- and working-class economics,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “But while he’s won over people up to 54% and Republicans are supportive of his policies, he has to be careful in over-projecting his mandate – underneath is still a division of the election that has not yet resolved itself.”
TRUMP +2 ON HARRIS IN FINAL POLLING; +4 AMONG INDEPENDENTS
50% of voters say they voted for Trump, including 92% of Republicans and 49% of Independents; while 48% of voters say they voted for Harris, including 90% of Democrats and 45% of Independents.82% of voters say they voted (Democrat: 86%; Republican: 87%; Independent: 70%). Non-voters cited lack of motivation, feeling like their vote didn’t matter, and dislike of the candidates as top reasons they did not vote.37% of voters voted in-person on Election Day, 32% voted in-person before Election Day, and 31% voted by mail. 56% of the electorate say they made up their mind on who they were voting for before September. 34% of Democrats, 28% of Republicans, and 32% of Independents voted by mail.11% of the 2024 electorate were first-time voters. 31% of first-time voters decided who they were voting for before September, 24% decided the week of the election, and 20% decided on Election Day.74% of voters voted on down-ballot races (House of Representatives: 62%; U.S. Senate: 52%; Governor: 34%).
VOTERS MOTIVATED BY ISSUES AND CHANGE
80% of voters say the candidate’s position on issues was the most important factor when it came to casting their vote compared to personal qualities (Harris: 71%; Trump: 90%; Democrat: 76%; Republican: 87%; Independent: 78%;).The majority of voters said their response to the most important issue facing the country was a main reason for their candidate choice. Of those who said immigration was the most important issue facing the country, 87% said it was one of the main reasons, if not the main reason for their vote (abortion: 79%; inflation: 77%; climate change: 66%). 29% of voters said inflation was the main reason for their vote, 28% pointed to immigration, and 26% pointed to abortion.76% of voters say they voted for change rather than continuity in how the country is managed (Harris: 60%; Trump: 91%; Democrat: 62%; Republican: 89%; Independent: 78%).Of key events from the presidential campaign, voters say the Trump vs. Harris debate (36%), Trump surviving the assassination attempt (32%), and Trump declaring no tax on tips (32%) made them more likely to vote for Trump.
TRUMP AND GOP APPROVAL RATING REFLECT ELECTION RESULTS AND DISCONTENT WITH DIRECTION OF COUNTRY, INFLATION, AND IMMIGRATION
Trump’s approval rating as president-elect is at 54%, 12 points higher than Biden’s as president, including 91% of Republicans and 49% of Independents. The majority of male, 18-54 year old, white, Hispanic, urban, and rural voters approve of Trump.49% of voters approve of the Republican Party’s job (+3 from October), while 44% approve of that of the Democratic Party (-3 from October).27% of voters say the country is on the right track, down 4 percentage points from October (Democrat: 29%; Republican: 32%; Independent: 17%).Inflation (45%) and immigration (16%) continue to be the most important issues to voters personally, with inflation a concern across party lines, immigration of more concern for Republicans (28%), and abortion (18%) and climate change (13%) more of a concern for Democrats.
PERCEPTIONS OF TRUMP STILL DIVIDED FOLLOWING THE ELECTION
54% of voters say Trump has been trying to unify rather than divide the country since the election (Democrat: 24%; Republican: 89%; Independent: 50%).52% of voters believe Trump is a threat to democracy (Democrat: 81%; Republican: 16%; Independent: 45%). 53% say Trump should continue to be tried on criminal charges (Democrat: 87%; Republican: 16%; Independent: 55%).68% of voters say their greatest hope for the new Trump administration is to end inflation and price increases (Democrat: 57%; Republican: 81%; Independent: 68%), followed by the revitalization of the American economy (43%) and American values (42%).46% of voters say their greatest fear is Trump behaving like a dictator (Democrat: 74%; Republican: 16%; Independent: 49%). Other top fears among Democrats are irreparable damage to the U.S. government and agencies (56%) and the Trump administration moving too far to the right (55%). The greatest fear among Republicans is massive protests by the left (47%).Of Trump’s cabinet appointments, more voters favor rather than oppose Susie Wiles (+11), Mike Huckabee (+6), Vivek Ramaswamy (+5), and Marco Rubio (+3). Voters are split on Elon Musk (+1) and oppose Matt Gaetz (-8).
VOTERS FOLLOWED ELECTION NEWS CLOSELY, RELYING ON TV AND SOCIAL MEDIA; BELIEVE MUSK HAD BIGGEST IMPACT
81% of voters say they followed the presidential election somewhat or very closely.46% of voters say they used TV news channels (Democrat: 45%; Republican: 49%; Independent: 42%), while 23% used social media platforms (Democrat: 26%; Republican: 22%; Independent: 20%) and 10% relied on news outlet websites.ABC News (36%) and Fox TV News (33%) were the most popular TV channels for election coverage, while Facebook (43%), Google (39%), and YouTube (39%) were the most popular social media platforms for news.51% of voters say they felt election news was fair while 49% believe it was biased. Among those who felt news was biased, 57% say it was biased against Trump and Republicans (Democrat: 23%; Republicans: 87%; Independent: 51%).60% of voters say journalists today are mostly practicing advocacy as opposed to unbiased journalism.Elon Musk (65%), Taylor Swift (63%), and Oprah Winfrey (54%) were the most known endorsements heading into the election. 71% believe Musk’s endorsement had the biggest impact on the election (Joe Rogan: 43%; Taylor Swift: 36%).42% of voters say Elon Musk’s endorsement had some or significant impact on their vote (Democrat: 32%; Republican: 55%; Independent: 31%), and 37% say the same about Joe Rogan (Democrat: 31%; Republican: 47%; Independent: 28%).
The November Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on November 13-14, 2024, among 1,732 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Contact:
Carrie Hsu
PR@stagwellglobal.com
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