NEW YORK and LONDON, Oct. 1, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Dealogic, an ION Analytics service, published its ECM Highlights 9M24 report today, revealing a slowdown of equity capital market (ECM) activity in 3Q24 as market volatility and election nerves put a damper on what had been a year of recovery for global ECM.
Global ECM volumes of USD 160 billion, according to Dealogic data, was slightly above 3Q23 but marked a significant drop from 2Q, pointing to growing concerns among investors about market volatility. Global 9M is still significantly higher than in 2023 or 2022.
Political uncertainty also played a dramatic role, with fewer European deals surrounding snap French elections, marked by the canceled IPO of Italian luxury sneaker maker Golden Goose. Political risks are likely to continue in 4Q, with the US elections in November.
The report notes that equity capital markets have been muted since 2022 due to rising inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical risks. A strong start to 2024 rekindled hopes for recovery. However, 3Q24 volumes show that global economic and political pressures are continuing to take their toll.
With the US Federal Reserve kicking off a rate-cutting cycle in September, there is cautious optimism for a market rebound. Many US and European issuers are nevertheless delaying IPOs until 1H25 to avoid election-related risks.
The ECM Highlights 9M24 report reveals:
ECM volumes in the Americas remained steady Y-O-Y at USD 76.4 billion, a 7% drop from USD 81.5 billion in 2Q, compared with a 4.5% decline between 3Q23 and 2Q23.
APAC ranked second in ECM volumes for the quarter and the 9M, though EMEA surpassed APAC in 2Q24, a rare occurrence in global ECM.
EMEA showed the sharpest volume drop quarterly and Y-O-Y as volatility around French elections led to a limited deal flow, making it the worst quarter for European IPOs since 1Q19.
Americas IPOs generated a cumulative profit of around USD 6.9 billion, yielding around 22% as of end-September, outperforming the S&P 500 over the same period.
EMEA IPOs generated around USD 3.5 billion in profit for investors, delivering about 18% returns YTD, outperforming benchmark European indices.
Samuel Kerr, Global ECM Editor at ION Analytics, says, “After two strong quarters in global ECM, activity slowed in 3Q24, with fewer IPOs compared to the same period in 2022 and 2023. The slowing in deal flow coincided with an uptick in equity market volatility in August and nerves around this year’s snap French elections alongside the upcoming US elections. With global interest rates now falling, there is further impetus for equity deals, but dealmakers and investors alike are keeping a close eye on the November polls.”
To request the full ECM Highlights 9M24 report, click here.
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About ION Analytics
ION Analytics delivers personalized, targeted data and market intelligence to banks, investors, and corporates, helping clients find opportunities and drive better decisions in markets ranging from equities and fixed income to infrastructure and private equity. The ION Analytics platform brings together six unique, powerful services that span global markets making ION Analytics the only choice for capital markets professionals. For more information, visit https://ionanalytics.com/
About Dealogic
Dealogic offers integrated content, analytics, and technology via targeted products and services to financial firms worldwide. Whether working in capital markets, sales and trading, banking, or the buyside, firms rely on Dealogic’s platform to connect and more effectively identify opportunities, execute deals, and manage risk. With 30 years’ experience and a deep understanding of financial markets, Dealogic is a trusted global partner. For more information, visit www.dealogic.com
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