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Is Bitcoin an inflation hedge? Why BTC hasn’t faired well with peak inflation

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Bitcoin’s status as an inflation hedge has come under scrutiny in the current market, but experts point toward the exceptional market conditions.

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Coin Market

Bitcoin is holding above $90K, so why is ‘greed’ sentiment slipping?

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Key takeaways:

Crypto market sentiment hit a two-month high with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index returning to “Greed” territory on April 23.

Despite Bitcoin’s price hold, the sentiment score is gradually declining, and analysts are expressing doubt over the rally’s sustainability.

The crypto market remains Bitcoin-heavy, with its dominance above 64%, strong ETF inflows and a low altcoin season score.

Bitcoin’s several-day surge above $90,000 pushed crypto market sentiment to its highest point in more than two months on April 23, but it’s gradually tapering off again as analysts air concerns about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s rally.

On April 23, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index clocked a score of 72 out of 100, putting it in the “Greed” zone as Bitcoin (BTC) returned above the $90,000 level. However, as of April 25, the score has fallen to 60 despite the relatively stable price.

Crypto sentiment at two-month high 

The last time the index hit this score was on Feb. 4, around the same time US President Donald Trump introduced tariffs and Bitcoin fell below $100,000. Bitcoin has since reclaimed the $90,000 price level for the first time since March 6. 

Bitcoin is trading at $93,130 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap

However, despite Bitcoin trading between $91,800 and $94,304 over the past two days, sentiment within the “Greed” territory has been gradually cooling off, with the index falling to April 24 and 60 on April 25.

The slight pullback follows warnings from several crypto analysts who remain cautious about the Bitcoin rally, including 10x Research’s head of research, Markus Thielen, who isn’t yet convinced of a rally.

“Given that our stablecoin minting indicator has yet to return to high-activity levels, we remain cautious about the sustainability of the current Bitcoin rally,” Thielen said on April 23.

Meanwhile, Bitfinex analysts said on April 24 that while Bitcoin’s relative strength against US equities “appears real,” it is yet to be confirmed as structural.

However, others are more bullish. MN Trading Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said on April 24 that “buyers are likely going to step in, and then we’ll be continuing our path toward a new [all-time high].”

Related: Bitcoin ‘short squeeze’ or $87K dip next? BTC price predictions vary

CoinMarketCap’s altcoin season index indicates that the market is still heavily favoring Bitcoin over altcoins, with the altcoin season score sitting at a lowly 17 out of 100. It comes as Bitcoin Dominance is sitting at 64.39%, according to TradingView data.

Bitcoin sentiment has gained momentum since it touched the mid-$80,000 price range. On April 17, crypto analytics firm Santiment pointed out that the tone of Bitcoin-related social media posts has flipped to bullish.

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Trader T pointed out in an April 25 X post that US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have, so far to April 24, seen their third-best week of inflows since launching in January 2024. Over the past four trading days, the spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $2.6 billion in net inflows.

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Slovenia’s capital of Ljubljana ranked as world’s most crypto-friendly city

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The capital city of Slovenia — Ljubljana — has been named the world’s most crypto-friendly city by migration advisory firm Multipolitan.

The city outranked runners-up Hong Kong and Switzerland’s economic powerhouse Züric, which scored the same in the Crypto-Friendly Cities Index, found in its 2025 Crypto Report.

The index featured 20 cities and ranked their crypto-friendliness based on their regulations, tax environment, lifestyle factors and digital and crypto infrastructure.

Multipolitan said its evaluation included weighing areas such as a city’s licensing frameworks, capital gains tax rates, GDP per capita, housing affordability and internet speeds.

“The presence of crypto ATMs and retail adoption rates were analysed to reflect each city’s embedded cryptocurrency culture,” it explained. “High concentrations of these assets earned the top scores.”

The city-state of Singapore and the United Arab Emirates’ capital of Abu Dhabi were respectively ranked fourth and fifth after the second-place tie. Both cities were already attractive to businesses due to offering low or no taxes, but they’ve also worked to attract crypto companies with industry-specific licensing and regulatory regimes.

Sydney, Australia’s most populous city, ranked in the middle of the pack in 10th spot, with the report noting it was home to the most crypto ATMs of the group. Source: Multipolitan

Madison, the capital city of the US state of Wisconsin, was the only city in the Americas to rank on the index, hitting the same 11th place score as Latvia’s capital of Riga, Qatar’s capital of Doha, and Saudi Arabia’s capital of Riyadh.

Slovenia’s crypto embrace

Slovenia also topped Multipolitan’s Crypto Wealth Concentration Index, combining crypto ownership rates and trading volumes, which reported that the average Slovenian crypto owner held around $240,500 worth of assets.

The figure outranked second-place Cyprus by over $65,000, with the average crypto-holding Cypriot hanging onto around $175,000. Hong Kong came in third with holdings averaging $97,500.

Related: Slovenia’s finance ministry floats 25% tax on crypto transactions 

The US ranked at the bottom of the 20-strong list, coming in 17th spot with average crypto holdings of around $23,300, just above Malaysia’s nearly $21,000 average holdings.

Slovenia, being part of the EU, regulates crypto under the bloc’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), which the industry received as mostly positive.

The advocacy group Blockchain Alliance Europe is based in Ljubljana. The city also houses the blockchain real estate platform Blocksquare, which teamed up with Vera Capital on April 18 to tokenize $1 billion worth of US real estate.

Magazine: Tbilisi Crypto City Guide: Crypto is used for payments in Georgia, not to get rich 

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ARK Invest ups its 2030 Bitcoin bull case prediction to $2.4M

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Billion-dollar asset manager ARK Invest has raised its “bull case” Bitcoin price target from $1.5 million to $2.4 million by the end of 2030, driven largely by institutional investors and Bitcoin’s increasing acceptance as “digital gold.”

ARK’s “bear” and “base” case scenarios for the price of Bitcoin (BTC) were also bumped up to $500,000 and $1.2 million, ARK research analyst David Puell said in an April 24 report.

The new bear and base targets were bumped up from ARK’s $300,000 and $710,000 Bitcoin price predictions on Feb. 11.

ARK’s price projections were modeled on Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM), penetration rate — the percentage of Bitcoin’s TAM that it could capture in certain cases — and Bitcoin’s supply schedule.

ARK’s bear, base and bull case price targets for Bitcoin by Dec. 31, 2030. Source: ARK Invest

“Institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case,” said Puell, who estimated that Bitcoin would achieve a 6.5% penetration rate into the $200 trillion financial market in a best-case scenario (that figure excludes gold).

Bitcoin’s acceptance as “digital gold” was also a major contributor to the lofty estimate, with Puell estimating that it could capture up to 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market cap (2024 figures) by the end of 2030 in a bull scenario.

Bitcoin becoming a “safe haven” in emerging markets was the third-largest contributor to ARK’s $2.4 million bull case prediction at 13.5%.

“This Bitcoin use case has the greatest potential for capital accrual,” Puell said, pointing to Bitcoin’s ability to protect wealth from inflation and devaluation in developing countries.

Nation-state and corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies and Bitcoin financial services were also factored into ARK’s Bitcoin price projections.

Bitcoin use cases contributing to ARK’s Bitcoin price targets. Source: ARK Invest

ARK’s Bitcoin predictions are bold

A $2.4 million Bitcoin price tag would send Bitcoin’s market cap to $49.2 trillion, assuming that Bitcoin’s total supply will have reached 20.5 million by the end of 2030.

A $49.2 trillion valuation would be almost larger than the current gross domestic products of the US and China combined.

It would also put Bitcoin in a good position to overtake gold as the world’s largest asset, which currently boasts a market cap of $22.5 trillion.

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Even ARK’s bear and base targets of $500,000 and $1.2 million would mean Bitcoin needs to increase at a compounded annual growth rate of 32% and 53% by the end of 2030 — a return that isn’t achieved too often for assets that have already notched trillion-dollar valuations.

Since then, Bitcoin has recovered from a 2025 low of $75,160, soaring back up to the $94,000 range, while the Trump administration established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

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