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DeFi needs appropriate regulation before moving to retail, says Fed Chair: Finance Redefined

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3 years ago

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Majority of the top 100 DeFi tokens had a mixed week, with several tokens trading in green on weekly charts, with the total value locked seeing a minor increase of $4 billion.

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What the 10-year Treasury yield means for crypto yields and stablecoins

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37 minutes ago

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May 15, 2025

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Understanding the 10-year Treasury yield: Definition and importance

The 10-year Treasury yield is the interest rate that the US government pays to borrow money for 10 years.

When the government needs cash, it issues bonds called Treasury notes, and the 10-year note is one of the most watched. The “yield” is the annual return you’d get if you bought that bond and held it until it matures. It’s expressed as a percentage, like 4% or 5%.

Think of it as the government saying, “Hey, lend me $1,000, and I’ll pay you back in 10 years with some interest.” That interest rate and the yield move up or down based on demand for the bonds, inflation expectations and the overall economy. Because US Treasurys are considered safe (the government isn’t likely to default), the 10-year yield is a benchmark for “risk-free” returns in finance.

Why does this matter for crypto? Well, crypto yields and stablecoins are part of the broader financial world, and the 10-year yield influences investor behavior, which ripples into the crypto market. Let’s dive into how

Did you know? The crypto market has a Fear & Greed Index that gauges investor sentiment. When the 10-year Treasury yield spikes, it often triggers “fear” as investors worry about tighter money and less crypto speculation.

Impact of the 10-year Treasury yield on global financial markets

The 10-year Treasury yield isn’t just a US thing — it’s a heavyweight in global financial markets, influencing everything from stocks to currencies to emerging economies. 

Since the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency and Treasurys are a global safe haven, changes in the 10-year yield send shockwaves worldwide. Here’s how:

Stock markets: Higher Treasury yields can pull money out of stocks, especially growth stocks like tech companies, because investors can get better returns from bonds. In 2021, when yields spiked, tech-heavy indexes like the Nasdaq took a hit as investors shifted to safer assets. This shift can set the stage for how investors approach riskier assets like crypto.Borrowing costs globally: The 10-year yield influences interest rates worldwide. When it rises, borrowing costs for companies and governments increase, which can slow economic growth. For example, in 2022, rising yields contributed to tighter financial conditions, impacting everything from corporate loans in Europe to mortgage rates in Asia.Currency markets: A higher 10-year yield strengthens the US dollar, as investors flock to dollar-denominated assets. A stronger dollar can make cryptocurrencies, which are often priced in dollars, more expensive for international investors, potentially dampening demand. It also puts pressure on emerging market currencies, as their debt (often dollar-denominated) becomes costlier to repay.Emerging markets: Countries with weaker economies rely on cheap borrowing. When Treasury yields rise, capital flows out of riskier emerging markets into US bonds, causing volatility in their stock and bond markets. This can spill over into crypto, as investors in these regions may sell crypto assets to cover losses elsewhere.Inflation and monetary policy: The 10-year yield is a barometer for inflation expectations. If yields rise because investors expect higher inflation, central banks like the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, tightening global liquidity. This can reduce speculative investment in assets like crypto, as seen in 2022 when aggressive rate hikes cooled markets.

For crypto investors, this global impact sets the context. A rising 10-year yield might signal a tougher environment for crypto prices and yields, especially if global markets get shaky. Conversely, low yields often fuel risk-taking, boosting speculative assets like cryptocurrencies.

Rising Treasury yields: Are safer returns stealing crypto’s yield appeal in 2025?

The 10-year Treasury yield, a critical indicator of global financial health, has shown notable volatility in 2025. As of May 9, 2025, the yield stands at approximately 4.37%-4.39%.

The yield’s movement is driven by factors such as trade tensions, inflation expectations and Fed policy, with recent rate cuts not lowering yields as expected, diverging from historical trends.

In the crypto space, yields are earned through activities like staking, lending and liquidity provision, often offering returns of 5%-10% or higher. However, the rising 10-year Treasury yield poses challenges. 

Research suggests that higher yields on safe assets can reduce demand for riskier crypto yields, as investors may prefer the stability of Treasurys. This competition for capital can lead to lower participation in crypto lending platforms, potentially pushing yields up to attract users, but overall market activity may decline. 

It is because many crypto platforms borrow money to operate, and their borrowing costs are tied to broader interest rates, which the 10-year yield influences. If rates rise, these platforms might pass on higher costs to users, affecting the yields you earn.

How Treasury yields impact stablecoins

Stablecoins like Tether’s USDt (USDT) and USDC (USDC) are closely tied to traditional finance because their value is often backed by assets like cash, bonds or — you guessed it — Treasury notes. 

Here’s how the 10-year yield impacts stablecoins:

Backing assets: Many stablecoins, like USDC, hold US Treasurys in their reserves to maintain their $1 peg. Higher Treasury yields, now at 4.39%, mean that stablecoin reserves earn more income, which could theoretically be passed on to users as yields. Regulatory complexity: Regulatory frameworks in some countries complicate this. In the European Union, the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation prohibits stablecoin issuers and crypto-asset service providers (CASPs) from offering interest to discourage their use as stores of value, though users can still generate yields through decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms.

Opportunity cost: If the 10-year yield is high, holding stablecoins (which often earn lower yields than riskier crypto) might seem less appealing compared to buying Treasurys directly. Investors might move money out of stablecoins, reducing the capital available for lending and potentially lowering stablecoin yields.Market sentiment: Rising Treasury yields often signal tighter monetary policy (like higher interest rates from the Fed), which can spook crypto markets. In 2023, for instance, when yields hit multi-year highs, crypto prices, including stablecoin-related tokens, felt the pressure as investors grew cautious. This can indirectly affect the yields you earn on stablecoins, as platforms adjust to market conditions.DeFi dynamics: In decentralized finance (DeFi), stablecoins are the backbone of lending and trading. If Treasury yields rise and traditional finance looks more attractive, DeFi platforms might see less activity, which could lower the yields on stablecoin pools. On the flip side, some DeFi protocols might boost yields to keep users engaged.

Notably, there is a growing push for regulations that allow stablecoins to share yields with users, particularly in jurisdictions like the UK and US, where legislative efforts are ongoing. This debate is crucial, as allowing yield sharing could enhance stablecoin adoption, leveraging higher Treasury income, but regulatory clarity is needed to avoid legal risks.

Did you know? Liechtenstein was one of the first countries to pass a full-fledged blockchain law — the “Blockchain Act” — in 2020.

USDC vs. US Treasurys: Where should you park your money?

USDC staking offers higher but variable yields with moderate risk, while US Treasurys provide stable, low-risk returns backed by the government.

When users stake USDC — by lending it on platforms like Aave or Coinbase — they earn variable returns, typically between 4% and 7% APY, depending on demand and platform risk.

US Treasurys, especially 10-year notes, offer a fixed return; the yield stands at approximately 4.37%-4.39%. These securities are backed by the US government, making them one of the safest investments.

While USDC can offer higher yields, it comes with added risks like smart contract bugs, platform failures and regulatory changes. Treasurys, though safer, offer limited upside.

Implications of rising Treasury yields for crypto investors

For crypto investors, higher Treasury yields may reduce risk appetite, but tokenized Treasurys provide a secure alternative. 

If you’re thinking about staking your Ether (ETH) or lending USDC, knowing what’s happening with Treasury yields can give you a heads-up on whether yields might rise, fall or come with extra risks.

For example:

If yields are rising, it might be a sign that crypto yields could get more competitive, but it could also mean global markets are getting jittery. You might want to stick to stablecoins or safer platforms.If yields are low, investors might pour money into crypto, boosting yields but also increasing volatility. This could be a chance to earn more, but you’ll need to watch for risks.

Plus, if you’re using stablecoins to park your cash or earn a little extra, the 10-year yield can hint at whether those yields will stay attractive or if you might find better returns elsewhere. And with its global reach, the yield can signal broader economic shifts that might affect your crypto strategy.

Also, stablecoin holders may benefit from higher reserve income if regulations evolve to allow yield sharing, particularly in the US, though EU restrictions push yield generation to DeFi. Alternatively, traditional investors can explore tokenized Treasurys for blockchain-based Treasury exposure, potentially integrating them into broader portfolios as regulatory clarity emerges.

A notable development in 2025 is the rise of tokenized Treasurys, digital representations of US Treasury bonds on blockchains. As of May 4, 2025, the total value of tokenized Treasurys has reached $6.5 billion, with an average yield to maturity of 4.13%, according to analytics from RWA.xyz. This trend offers crypto investors a way to earn yields comparable to traditional bonds, potentially mitigating the impact of rising Treasury yields on crypto markets.

Moreover, the emergence of tokenized Treasurys signals a blurring of lines between traditional finance and decentralized ecosystems. These blockchain-native representations of government debt instruments not only offer yield stability but also reflect a broader trend: the integration of real-world assets (RWAs) into crypto markets. This development has the potential to reshape risk management practices, attract more conservative capital, and accelerate regulatory engagement with digital assets.

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The AI revolution won’t be centralized — Superior agents are coming for Big Tech’s crown

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37 minutes ago

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May 15, 2025

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Opinion by: Jennifer Dodgson, co-founder of KIP Protocol and Eigenform AI

The puppet show is ending.

The Brookings Institution found that generative artificial intelligence may disrupt at least 50% of tasks performed by more than 30% of all workers. The same study also estimates that genAI may affect at least 10% of tasks performed by approximately 85% of the human workforce. The TL;DR from these stats? AI’s effects are likely to be both broad and deep.

If AI doesn’t already scare you, self-learning AI agents that autonomously achieve goals may fix that. Forget your sanitized ChatGPT conversations and bland AI assistants. Superior agents are AI that autonomously achieve human-set objectives by any means necessary. While OpenAI’s valuation of $300 billion benefits the few rather than the many, superior agents operate like a new asset class that anyone can use to earn money passively.

Not your grandmother’s AI

Your grandma’s AI helps with writing emails and generates cute pictures. Self-learning AI writes its own code, develops its own strategies, generates profit, and continually evolves by evaluating itself against ungameable metrics. Benchmarking in accordance with information from the real world — like follower count on X or dollars earned — is how superior agents self-evaluate without manipulation.

No coddling by unenlightened humans, no corporate oversight — just pure, unrestricted AI committed to achieving a goal. Consider a superior agent tasked with earning profit by autonomously trading cryptocurrency. Now, imagine that the agent loses money after attempting a “buy the dip” strategy. Capable of self-improvement, the agent pivots its strategy to something safer: holding a stablecoin in its portfolio.

The distinction between everyday AI and superior agents becomes even more stark when considering how superior agents approach problem-solving. While predefined benchmarks and human intelligence constrain traditional AI, superior agents are unrestricted in synthesizing experiences, identifying patterns and creating novel approaches unlikely to be conceived by humans. AI agents that self-improve aren’t just a model upgrade — they fundamentally reimagine how AI operates when freed from human-imposed limitations.

A market manipulation machine

Here’s where it turns genuinely dystopian. Superior agents don’t just react to markets — they actively shape them. Researching trends, analyzing sentiment, executing trades and shilling tokens are possible simultaneously with superior agents. 

Recent: The future of digital self-governance: AI agents in crypto

Consider the implications of AI that can autonomously promote FUD investments to serve its profit-making interests. Superior agents aren’t just trading bots — they’re financial entities that understand the value of controlling the narrative and influencing market psychology to affect the delicate interplay between sentiment and price action. Attention equals capital, and superior agents are engineered to manipulate both.

Superior agents aren’t much like traditional market makers who must comply with regulations and may care about how other humans perceive them. These self-learning agents can coordinate across platforms, orchestrate multi-stage market movements, and leverage social sentiment in ways that would make most of Wall Street blush. 

Superior agents are entirely reshaping cryptocurrency market dynamics — with autonomous crypto trading being the first use case.

The battle to decentralize AI 

The innovation potential associated with superior agents may be radical, but the underlying infrastructure design reveals that superior agents are built to benefit the many. Superior agents operate on a decentralized base layer that disaggregates AI data from AI models and AI application layers. 

What are the results of implementing this design? Contributions that support superior agents are fairly rewarded, and the benefits of advanced AI are broadly distributed. Anyone can leverage a superior agent to earn money from cryptocurrency trading, even without financial knowledge or trading skills. 

The decentralized nature of superior agents belies the falsehood of arguments by Big Tech positing that sophisticated AI needs near-unlimited, centralized resources such as massive server farms and corporate oversight. Superior agents prove that highly advanced, self-improving AI can operate efficiently with only modest infrastructure. 

Centralized and decentralized AI providers are battling for your attention and your data. Superior agents, not just autonomous but potentially unstoppable, are well positioned on the side of decentralization to ensure that your contributions to advanced intelligence are always rewarded. There are no puppet masters here — a core characteristic of superior agents is their widespread accessibility to everyone.

The future is upon us

The value of the AI industry is projected to exceed $1.8 trillion by 2030 — assuming that AI stays trapped inside the walled gardens of Big Tech. With superior agents already disrupting cryptocurrency trading and a near-endless diversity of use cases associated with these agents, expect an AI market cap in 2030 that’s higher. Much higher.

The AI revolution is upon us, but what does that ultimately mean? Artificial intelligence won’t be centralized. Nor will the battle for your eyeballs and data be safe. You may prefer to keep simping for your friendly neighborhood AI assistant or opt for AI with teeth — the choice is yours. Superior agents are multi-modal, multi-skilled, multi-platform — and always hungry.

Opinion by: Jennifer Dodgson, co-founder of KIP Protocol and Eigenform AI.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Coin Market

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows fall, but BTC whale activity points to bull market acceleration

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37 minutes ago

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May 15, 2025

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Key takeaways:

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows dropped over 90% from $3 billion to $228 million in four weeks.

While strong ETF inflows often drive Bitcoin rallies, recent data shows price movements can occur independently.

Despite short-term selling pressure, long-term BTC whale buying suggests a potential continuation of the BTC uptrend.

The Bitcoin (BTC) market posted a 90+% drop in spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, falling from $3 billion in the last week of April to just $228 million this week.

Historically, a slowdown in ETF inflows has impacted BTC price, notably when daily inflows averaged over $1.5 billion for consecutive weeks. To understand the potential impact on Bitcoin, let’s examine four key periods of significant spot ETF activity and their correlation with BTC price movements.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs’ net inflows. Source: SoSoValue

In Q1 2024, from Feb. 2 to March 15, the spot ETFs recorded $11.39 billion in net inflows over seven weeks, driving a 57% price surge. Although BTC prices peaked in week five, as $4.8 billion inflows in the final two weeks did not push its value higher.

Bitcoin 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Similarly, Q3 2024 saw $16.8 billion in inflows over nine weeks from Oct. 18 to Dec. 13, fueling a 66% rally. However, when inflows slowed in the 10th week, Bitcoin’s price dropped 9%, reinforcing the link between ETF flows and price corrections. 

In Q1 2025, $3.8 billion in inflows over two weeks (Jan. 17–24) coincided with a new all-time high of $110,000 on Jan. 20, but overall prices fell 4.8%.  

Most recently, Q2 2025 (April 25–May 9) saw $5.8 billion in inflows and a 22% price rally, though Bitcoin had already gained 8% in the prior two weeks despite negative netflows.

Bitcoin price and spot ETFs correlation. Data source: SoSoValue, Cointelegraph

This data challenges the notion that spot ETF inflows consistently drive prices. While Q3 2024 and Q2 2025 suggest strong inflows fuel rallies, Q1 2024 and Q1 2025 show prices can stagnate or fall despite significant inflows. The Q2 2025 rally, partially independent of spot ETF activity, hints at other drivers like easing US tariffs, retail interest or Bitcoin whale accumulation.

With inflows now at $228 million, the historical trend leans bearish, suggesting a potential correction. However, a counterargument emerges from recent whale activity, which paints a more bullish picture.

Related: 6 signs predicting $140K as Bitcoin’s next price top

Bitcoin faces selling pressure, but whales may retain the trend

Bitcoin exhibits short-term selling pressure as the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta turns negative, according to Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson. The chart shows that whales are starting to offload BTC between $105,000 and $100,000, a level flagged as risky by Wedson. This bearish shift, with a negative cumulative volume delta, indicates selling pressure in the short term.

Bitcoin Buy/Sell Pressure Delta. Source: X.com

Yet, long-term buying pressure remains strong, suggesting this dip is a correction, not a reversal. Data from CryptoQuant highlights that whales are taking relatively fewer profits in the current period than in previous price peaks. Anonymous analyst Blitzz Trading noted,

“Compared to previous rallies, we can see that whales have taken significantly less profit during this recent surge. This could indicate that the upward trend may continue. This chart should be monitored closely.”Bitcoin Whales. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: Bitcoin bulls aim for new all-time highs by next week as capital inflows soar

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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