Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, predicts Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 due to a supply shock from heightened institutional demand.

In an interview with Cointelegraph at Consensus 2025 in Toronto, the executive said that Bitwise’s Bitcoin price prediction model is driven exclusively by supply and demand metrics. Hougan laid out the specific figures driving the forecast:

“We know that miners will produce 165,000 BTC this year. Already, publicly traded companies have bought more than that. ETFs are at $6 billion in inflows. We think governments are going to be buying. We see this sort of structural difference between demand and supply.”

“I think eventually that will exhaust sellers at the $100,000 level where we have been stuck, and I think the next stopping point above that is $200,000,” the executive said. Bitwise is one of the issuers of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US markets, with nearly $4 billion in assets under management through its Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) as of May 14.

Eleanor Terrett, Ben Gagnon, Matt Hougan and Tom Lee at Consensus 2025. Source: Cointelegraph

This institutional demand has also bolstered the market with liquidity, likely making the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle, with significant drawdowns of up to 90% in between cycles, a “vestige of the past,” Hougan said.

Related: “The world is trying to hoard Bitcoin right now” — Eric Trump

Michael Saylor’s Strategy single-handedly shifting markets

One of the key corporate players driving Bitcoin demand is Strategy. The company has pioneered the BTC reserve strategy and currently holds 568,840 BTC in its corporate treasury, according to SaylorTracker.

Author and Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston said recently that Strategy is “synthetically halving Bitcoin” by outpacing the newly mined supply.

Livingston added that Strategy has accumulated 379,800 BTC in the last six months and will likely control Bitcoin lending markets if it continues its rapid pace of accumulation.

“BTC’s global cost of capital will no longer be set by ‘the market.’ It will be set by the gravitational policies of the first Bitcoin superpower: Strategy,” Livingston wrote.

Bitcoin miner reserves are in long-term decline. Source: CryptoQuant

Strategy’s effect on Bitcoin’s supply is so pronounced that market analyst Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin’s supply is now deflationary, with an annual deflation rate of -2.33%.

The increased demand has led some analysts to forecast a $1 million Bitcoin price tag in the coming decade.

However, analyst and investor Arthur Hayes recently predicted BTC would hit $1 million in three years. Hayes argued that a deteriorating macroeconomic environment and liquidity injected from central banks will continue to drive prices higher.

Magazine: Metric signals $250K Bitcoin is ‘best case,’ SOL, HYPE tipped for gains: Trade Secrets

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The stalling of key stablecoin legislation in the United States Senate was a minor setback, and the bill will pass in the coming weeks, said Cody Carbone, CEO of Digital Chamber, a Washington, DC,-based blockchain trade association and advocacy group.

Speaking to Cointelegraph at Consensus 2025, Carbone argued it is in the best interests of the US to pass comprehensive stablecoin regulations to protect US dollar hegemony in global markets, which has bipartisan appeal and support. Carbone said:

“These things never move as quickly as we want them to move, but it’s stablecoin legislation. This Congress has already moved more expeditiously than we ever could have imagined. So, yes, it’s a bump in the road, but I think very, very shortly, we will have another vote.”

The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation in U.S. Stablecoins of 2025, or GENIUS Act, is seen as a critical piece of legislation. Failing to pass comprehensive regulatory reform before the midterm elections in 2026 could mean a reversal in the positive regulatory environment and a downturn in the crypto markets.

“Negotiations have continued, and so I am still very optimistic,” Carbone said. “This bill is going to pass the Senate in the next few weeks.”

The GENIUS Act of 2025. Source: US Senate

Related: What are the next steps for the US stablecoin bill?

Partisan politics and Trump’s involvement in crypto blamed for bill failure

The act failed to pass a procedural vote in the Senate on May 8 after several Democratic lawmakers withdrew support for the bill, citing US President Donald Trump’s involvement in crypto as a potential cause for ethics concerns and the primary driver for backpedaling support for the bill at the last minute.

Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal likewise said that Trump’s crypto ties complicate the regulatory process, as lawmakers continue to scrutinize his activities in the memecoin market, decentralized finance, and the non-fungible token (NFT) sector.

Republican Senator Tim Scott fired back against the concerns voiced by Democratic policymakers, attributing the failure to partisan politics and an attempt by Democrats to prevent Trump from achieving the administration’s digital asset goals.

The latest version of the bill removes references to the Trump family and could pass the Senate by the end of May, some industry executives say.

Magazine: Crypto wanted to overthrow banks, now it’s becoming them in stablecoin fight

Opinion by: Megan Knab, CEO, Franklin Payroll

There are few historical examples of such a massive about-face for an industry, from banks debanking crypto businesses to now embracing stablecoins. If you talk to most crypto startup founders or companies with crypto on the balance sheet, they will all have war stories about finding, applying for and maintaining bank accounts. 

Over the past three years, over half of debanking complaints have been lodged against four American banks — Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citibank. Now, as the policies that discriminated against the crypto industry, like “Operation Chokepoint 2.0” and the recision of controversial accounting rule SAB 121, have been repealed, a new openness to blockchain technology from the finance sector is possible. 

It is imperative that the banking industry stop shunning crypto and start — at least understanding it — to stay competitive. How stablecoins are deployed will separate the banking winners and losers. 

From debanking to stablecoins 

Of course, stablecoins are not a new concept. For years, large institutions like JPMorgan and Santander have experimented with stablecoins and blockchains. Those experiments were around small functions like internal treasury reconciliation and interbank settlement. Much of this was also on private blockchains created by those banks. Implementing digital dollars on private chains, however, misses out on the core innovation of stablecoins.

While the use case of stablecoins for international remittances is clear, we are just scratching the surface of the power of stablecoins on public networks. For example, stablecoins eradicate unauthorized payment disputes and enable far faster pay cycles. 

Payroll payments are also complex. Payday is a web of thousands of automated clearing houses, wires, comma-separated values and PDFs. The programmability of stablecoins enables companies to create efficiency among all these data structures, processing times, reconciliations and paycheck reporting. 

Many smaller banks are just now waking up to the opportunity to incorporate permissionless, public network stablecoins into their workflows. Similar to how many businesses started to investigate how AI might change their businesses with the 2022 release of ChatGPT, so too are banks needing to look at how stablecoins will upend money movement.

 Recently, Custodia Bank issued its own stablecoin, Avit, on Ethereum. Custodia’s users can access quick, cheap banking services that are hard to beat. This is an excellent example of implementation for other financial institutions to follow.

Stablecoin adoption is increasing as the tech keeps improving

Active stablecoin wallets increased from 19.6 million in February 2024 to over 30 million in February 2025, according to Artemis and Dune. US President Donald Trump hopes to have stablecoin legislation on his desk by August 2025. Wyoming already did so in late March 2025.

Recent: Mastercard links with Circle, Paxos for merchant stablecoin payments

Stablecoin infrastructure has improved significantly, and there is increased confidence in the security of stablecoins. 91% of the supply of stablecoins is fiat-backed, and only 8.5% are backed by collateralized crypto assets. Riskier algorithmic stablecoins have gone out of vogue.

Incremental changes also make it easier for non-crypto businesses to use stablecoins. There are now simple solutions for many of the original UX problems with stablecoins.

Additionally, more assets are moving onchain. Using stablecoins on public networks like Ethereum, payment companies will be better prepared to serve the future financial system. It’s not just stablecoins that are updating the financial system, either. Earlier this year, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said on Squawk Box he wants the SEC to “rapidly approve the tokenization of bonds and stocks.”

For banks looking for a competitive advantage in a world of powerful fintechs, shifting interest rates and lower consumer savings, using the power of stablecoins to improve their products and their internal operations might be the most powerful decision they make. 

Opinion by: Megan Knab, CEO, Franklin Payroll.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.