Key takeaways:

Rising bond yields reflect growing concern about fiscal stability and inflation, leading some investors to question US Treasury’s traditional role as a safe-haven asset.

Bitcoin defies conventional risk models, rising not because of worsening macro conditions, but possibly because of them.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to new heights amid an increasingly fragile global macroeconomic backdrop. Bond yields are surging in the US and Japan, global growth is stalling, and consumer confidence in the US is scraping historic lows.

Paradoxically, the very macro conditions that once threatened Bitcoin’s price are now fueling its rise. The shift speaks to a broader transformation in how investors interpret risk and where they seek refuge. At the center of this realignment is the US debt crisis and the ballooning Treasury yields, which were once considered the safest assets in the world.

Why are US Treasury yields so important?

When US bond yields rise, the cost of servicing its national debt increases sharply — a critical issue given that US debt has now surpassed $36.8 trillion, and the interest payments are expected to total $952 billion in 2025.

US President Donald Trump made it clear on several occasions that lowering yields was among his top economic priorities. However, this may prove far more difficult than he expected, as the two most reliable methods to achieve it both need to come from the US Federal Reserve. Lowering interest rates would make newly issued bonds yield less, making existing higher-yielding bonds more attractive, pushing up their price and lowering their effective yield. Another way is through quantitative easing (QE), where the Fed would buy large amounts of bonds on the open market, thus increasing demand and lowering yields.

The Federal Reserve is currently resisting both strategies and taking caution not to reignite inflation, particularly amid the ongoing tariff war. Even if Trump finds a legal or quasi-legal way to pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell, it could backfire by eroding investor confidence and producing the opposite of the intended effect.

Investors do not appreciate political meddling with the foundations of the US and global economy, and their confidence is already fragile. In times of instability, investors traditionally flock to government bonds as a safe haven. But today, the opposite is happening. Investors are turning away from Treasurys, suggesting the problems in the US economy are too large to ignore. The recent loss of the US government’s last AAA credit rating is a stark confirmation.

The worrying yield surge in the US and Japan

On May 22, the yield on the US 30-year bond hit 5.15% — its highest since October 2023, and before that, a level not seen since July 2007. The 10-year yield now stands at 4.48%, the 5-year yield at 4%, and the 2-year yield at 3.92%. 

US bond yields: 30Y, 10Y, 5Y, and 2Y. Source: TradingView

For the first time since October 2021, the US 5-Year to 30-Year bond spread has steepened to 1.00%. This suggests markets are pricing in stronger growth, persistent inflation, and a “higher for longer” rate environment. 

Related: Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high and data shows BTC bulls aren’t done yet

Compounding the problem is Japan, the largest foreign holder of US Treasurys. Japanese investors currently hold $1.13 trillion in US government debt, $350 billion more than China. For decades, Japanese institutions borrowed cheaply at home to invest in US bonds and stocks — a strategy known as the carry trade.

This era may be ending. In March 2024, the Bank of Japan started raising interest rates from -0.1% to 0.5% now. Since April, the Japanese 30-year bond yield has surged by 100 basis points, reaching an all-time high of 3.1%. The 20-year bond yields rose to 2.53%, a level not seen since 1999. 

On May 19, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba even warned the country’s parliament that his debt-strapped government’s position was “worse than Greece” — a startling admission for a country with a 260% debt-to-GDP ratio.

30-year government bonds.Source: LSEG Datastream

Interestingly, the surge in long-dated Japanese bonds wasn’t matched by shorter maturities. The 10-year bond yield is 1.53%, and the 5-year bond yield is just 1%. As Reuters noted, this suggests a strategic shift by large Japanese pension and insurance funds as the Bank of Japan “normalizes” interest rates. These institutions may now be reassessing both duration risk and foreign bond exposure, which spells potential trouble for US Treasurys if (or when) they begin unwinding their holdings.

Will bond volatility continue to impact Bitcoin price?

As the US continues down the debt spiral, and Japan might be starting its own, the global economy is nowhere near recovery, and that could be a good sign for Bitcoin.

Traditionally, rising bond yields would drag down risk assets. Yet stocks and Bitcoin continue climbing. This divergence suggests investors may be moving away from the traditional playbook. When confidence in the system erodes, assets outside it, like stocks and Bitcoin, begin to shine, even if they are considered risk-on. 

What’s more, between Bitcoin and US stocks, an increasing number of institutions choose Bitcoin. As The Kobeissi Letter noted, net 38% of institutional investors were underweight US equities in early May, the lowest since May 2023, according to BofA.

FMS US equity allowance. Source: BofA Global Research

Meanwhile, according to CoinGlass, total inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to grow, with assets under management now exceeding $104 billion, an all-time high. This surge suggests that institutional capital is beginning to recognize Bitcoin not just as a high-performing asset, but as a politically neutral store of value, akin to gold. In an era of mounting instability in fiat debt-based economies, Bitcoin is emerging as a credible alternative, offering a monetary system grounded in predictability and decentralization. With a market cap still well below gold’s $22 trillion or even the $5.5 trillion in base dollars (not including debt), Bitcoin remains significantly undervalued.

Interestingly, the current situation supports both of Bitcoin’s once-contradictory narratives: it is acting as a high-yield risk asset and a safe haven store of value. In a world where old frameworks are failing, Bitcoin’s dual role may no longer be an anomaly, but a sign of what’s to come.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Key points:

Bitcoin price is stuck below $109,588, but the pullback has not altered its bullish chart structure.

A bullish weekly open from Bitcoin could extend gains in HYPE, XMR, AAVE, and WLD.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains stuck below the $109,588 level during a quiet weekend, but analysts remain bullish. Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan said in a post on X that Bitcoin remains positive as long as it trades above the yearly open level of about $93,500. 

Bitcoin’s demand is likely to remain strong with investments from sovereign wealth funds, exchange-traded funds, publicly listed companies and select nations. Crypto index fund management firm Bitwise said in a recent report that institutional funds could pump roughly $120 billion into Bitcoin in 2025 and about $300 billion in 2026.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

While the long-term picture looks promising, traders need to be careful in the near term. The failure to swiftly push the price back above $109,588 could attract profit-booking by short-term traders. If Bitcoin pulls back, several altcoins could also give up some of their recent gains.

Could Bitcoin rise back above $109,588, pulling altcoins higher? If it does, let’s look at the cryptocurrencies that look strong on the charts.

Bitcoin price prediction

Bitcoin dropped back below the breakout level of $109,588 on May 23, and the bears thwarted attempts by the bulls to push the price back above the overhead resistance on May 24.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls will again attempt to drive the price above the $109,588 to $111,980 overhead resistance zone. If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to the target objective of $130,000.

The 20-day exponential moving average ($104,199) is the critical level to watch out for in the near term. If the support cracks, the pair could plummet to $100,000 and later to the 50-day simple moving average ($94,916).

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bears have pulled the price below the 50-SMA. The 20-EMA has started to turn down, and the relative strength index has dipped into negative territory, signaling that the bears have the upper hand. If the price sustains below the 50-SMA, the pair could descend to $102,500 and later to $100,000.

Buyers will regain control if they push and maintain the price above the $109,588 resistance. The pair could then challenge the $111,980 level. A break above $111,980 could open the doors for a rally to $116,654.

Hyperliquid price prediction

Hyperliquid (HYPE) has broken above the $35.73 resistance, indicating that the bulls have kept up the pressure.

HYPE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price sustains above $35.73, the HYPE/USDT pair could pick up momentum and surge to $42.25. Sellers will try to halt the up move at $42.25, but if the bulls prevail, the pair could skyrocket to $50.

Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will try to pull the price back below the breakout level of $35.73. If they do that, the pair could drop to the $32.15 support, where buyers are expected to step in. 

HYPE/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The pair bounced off the 20-EMA and cleared the overhead barrier at $35.73. If the price remains above $35.73, it suggests that the bulls are trying to flip the level into support. The pair could then attempt a rally to $42.25.

This optimistic view will be negated in the near term if the price turns down sharply and breaks below the 20-EMA. That could trap several aggressive bulls, pulling the pair to $32 and subsequently to $28.50.

Monero price prediction

Monero (XMR) soared above the $391 resistance on May 21, indicating that the bulls remain in control.

XMR/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The sharp rally of the past few days has kept the RSI in the overbought zone, suggesting that the bulls remain in command. If buyers maintain the price above $412, the XMR/USDT pair could resume its uptrend toward $456.

Sellers will have to yank the price below the $375 level to weaken the bullish momentum. That could attract selling by short-term buyers, pulling the pair to the 20-day EMA ($347). A break and close below the 20-day EMA suggests a short-term trend change.

XMR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The pair is finding support at the 20-EMA, indicating that the bulls remain in control. If the price rises above $412, the uptrend could start the next leg of the uptrend to $456.

Alternatively, a break and close below the 20-EMA suggests that the bulls are rushing to the exit. That could tug the price to the 50-SMA, which is likely to witness buying by the bulls. A bounce off the 50-SMA could face selling at the 20-EMA. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the likelihood of a break below the 50-SMA increases. The pair could then tumble to $332.

Related: What’s the HYPE about? Hyperliquid’s ‘Solana’ moment eyes 240% gains

Aave price prediction

Aave (AAVE) successfully held the retest of the breakout level of $240 on May 23, indicating demand at lower levels.

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The rising 20-day EMA ($231) and the RSI in the overbought zone show that the bulls have the edge. The AAVE/USDT pair could rally to the $285 level, which is expected to behave as a strong resistance. If buyers overcome the barrier at $285, the up move could extend to $300 and later to $350.

Any pullback is expected to witness solid buying at the 20-day EMA. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again try to pierce the overhead resistance. The bears will be back in the game on a break below the 20-day EMA. 

AAVE/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The pair has pulled back to the 20-EMA, which is an important level to watch out for. If the price rebounds off the 20-EMA, the bulls will try to propel the pair above $285. If they succeed, the pair could rally to $300.

Conversely, if the price breaks below the 20-EMA, the pair could slide to the 50-SMA and later to $240. A bounce off $240 is expected to face selling at the 20-EMA. If the price turns down sharply from the 20-EMA, it increases the risk of a drop to $217.

Worldcoin price prediction

Worldcoin’s (WLD) recovery is facing selling at $1.65, but a minor positive is that the bulls have not allowed the price to dip below the 20-day EMA ($1.20).

WLD/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The upsloping moving averages and the RSI in the positive territory indicate an advantage to buyers. If the price turns up from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again attempt to shove the price above the $1.65 resistance. If they can pull it off, the WLD/USDT pair could rally to $2.50. There is resistance at $1.89, but it is likely to be crossed.

This positive view will be invalidated if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA. The pair could then decline to the 50-day SMA ($0.99).

WLD/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bears have pulled the price below the 20-EMA, indicating the start of a deeper correction toward the 50-SMA. The bulls will try to start a rebound off the 50-SMA but are likely to meet stiff resistance at the 20-EMA. If the price turns down from the 20-EMA and breaks below the 50-SMA, the pair could plunge to $1.09.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the downtrend line. The pair could then rise to $1.52 and subsequently to $1.65.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor signaled an impending Bitcoin (BTC) purchase by the company amid the recent dip from the all-time high of $112,000 reached on May 22.

“I only buy Bitcoin with money I can’t afford to lose,” Saylor wrote to his 4.3 million followers in an X post.

The company’s most recent purchase of 7,390 BTC on May 19, valued at nearly $765 million, brought Strategy’s total holdings to 576,230 BTC.

If Strategy completes the acquisition on May 26, it will mark the company’s seventh consecutive week of Bitcoin purchases.

Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases over time and major metrics. Source: SaylorTracker

Strategy has become synonymous with Bitcoin, as the company continues stacking large amounts of BTC for its corporate treasury and inspiring other companies to pivot to a Bitcoin treasury plan, creating a sustained demand for the digital asset from institutional players and helping bolster the price of BTC.

Related: Jim Chanos takes opposing bets on Bitcoin and Strategy

BTC to propel Strategy into a $10 trillion enterprise, leaving other companies in the dust?

Market analyst Jeff Walton recently said that Strategy may become a $10 trillion company and potentially command the title of the most valuable publicly traded corporation in the world due to its growing Bitcoin stockpile.

“Strategy holds more of the best assets, and the most pristine collateral, on the entire planet than any other company, by multiples,” Walton told the Financial Times in a documentary about the company.

The analyst added that most companies typically face challenges raising hundreds of millions of dollars in capital, but Strategy has been able to raise billions of dollars in under two months.

Whereas most companies would spend this capital to overhaul the production process or on operational costs, Strategy uses the depreciating fiat money raised from creditors and equity holders to purchase a rapidly appreciating asset for its balance sheet.

Michael Saylor previously forecasted that the price of Bitcoin would reach millions of dollars per coin in the coming decades, arguing that the supply-capped asset features an asymmetric upside against all fiat currencies that have no supply cap.

However, Bitcoin has struggled to reach the $150,000 level in the short term. Saylor blamed the sluggish price action on investors taking profits prematurely and rotating out of BTC due to a lack of long-term conviction.

Magazine: Metric signals $250K Bitcoin is ‘best case,’ SOL, HYPE tipped for gains: Trade Secrets