Opinion by: Sasha Shilina, PhD, founder of Episteme and researcher at Paradigm Research Institute

Decentralized prediction markets are gaining ground in the scientific world, offering an intriguing answer to the field’s ongoing reproducibility crisis. While a notable share of research findings fail to replicate in independent tests, supporters believe market-driven forecasting can speed up identifying robust studies.

Detractors remain cautious, worried that introducing financial wagers could compromise the measured, peer-reviewed process that has guided academic inquiry for centuries. The debate hinges on whether blockchain-based forecasting will elevate or destabilize scientific credibility.

Crowdsourcing predictions

Despite these concerns, recent developments point toward real promise. Platforms like Polymarket and Pump.science have shown that crowdsourcing predictions can help refine collective judgment in fields as varied as politics and longevity. This model is being adapted for science, where it could quickly flag dubious claims and reward reproducible ones. 

Although critics highlight potential market manipulation, decentralized science (DeSci) advocates argue that broad participation from multiple stakeholders could democratize the validation process, discouraging one-sided interventions by well-funded groups.

The crux of the pro-market argument is the possibility of financial accountability for flawed or exaggerated studies. Under the conventional system, questionable research can remain influential for years before its shortcomings come to light.

Market-based validation turns that dynamic on its head, issuing direct financial losses to those who bet on shaky findings. Of course, the same mechanism allows for the “shorting” of credible but lesser-known work. Supporters note, however, that transparent market structures and robust liquidity can mitigate the worst effects of speculation, putting a welcome dose of rigor back into funding decisions and public trust.

Regulations and complexities

Regulatory scrutiny adds a layer of complexity. Some jurisdictions still classify prediction markets as gambling or derivatives, limiting their growth without specialized approvals. The early experience of platforms like Augur underscores how legal uncertainties can dampen mainstream engagement.

Recent shifts in digital asset regulation and greater public interest in scientific accountability suggest that, with the proper framework, a path toward legitimacy is possible. Proponents see this as an opportunity for policymakers to differentiate between purely speculative markets and those with clear societal benefits, such as improving research standards.

Knowledge frameworks

Data integrity is another obstacle that innovators are tackling head-on. Oracles, which feed external results into blockchains, remain a weak link if they rely on unverified or manipulated sources. More advanced AI oracle networks are incorporating multiple data feeds and transparent auditing processes to overcome this.

This, in turn, incentivizes labs and journals to adopt higher data reporting standards, knowing that the market’s collective intelligence would quickly expose fraudulent or incomplete information.

Recent: Bitcoin price prediction markets bet BTC won’t go higher than $138K in 2025

Some experts remain unconvinced that prediction markets alone can outperform traditional peer review. After all, scientific publication is based on specialized expertise, and markets often rely on overlapping pools of experts who may carry existing biases.

Yet others counter that the financial incentive can serve as a powerful accelerant for truth, ensuring that the possibility of monetary loss balances any conflict of interest. Rather than replacing peer review, prediction markets could operate in parallel, catching oversight or misconduct that slips through editorial filters.

For advocates, this blend of market-driven oversight and decentralized participation holds the greatest promise. With a growing number of platforms willing to host questions on scientific claims and major institutions increasingly alarmed by irreproducible research, the stage is set for a new era of rigorous public validation.

The outcome remains uncertain, but the core idea — that a small bet can spark a significant reckoning — has won over many open-science supporters and decentralized finance innovators. If blockchain-based prediction markets continue to mature, they may become a key ally in restoring scientific credibility, offering a faster, more transparent form of discovery.

Opinion by: Sasha Shilina, PhD, founder of Episteme and researcher at Paradigm Research Institute.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

If you’re following developments in the cryptocurrency market, you’ve likely noticed that Coinbase Derivatives has introduced XRP futures contracts to its US derivatives exchange. This move is part of a broader trend where regulated platforms are expanding access to futures trading, giving investors new ways to engage with digital assets like XRP (XRP).

But what exactly are XRP futures? And how do you get involved as an investor or trader?

Let’s take a closer look.

What are XRP futures?

XRP futures are standardized financial contracts that allow you to agree to buy or sell XRP at a predetermined price on a specific future date. Rather than trading the actual token, you’re trading a contract that tracks the price of XRP.

These contracts are overseen by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), meaning they operate within a regulated framework. That adds a level of oversight and structure that appeals to many investors, particularly those wary of the risks tied to unregulated platforms.

On April 3, 2025, Coinbase Derivatives announced it had filed with the CFTC to self-certify XRP futures contracts, and the contracts were launched on April 21, 2025.

Types of XRP futures contracts offered by Coinbase

Coinbase’s offering includes:

Nano XRP futures represent 500 XRP per contract, cash-settled in US dollars. These are designed for retail traders and smaller institutions, offering lower capital requirements while still providing exposure to XRP price movements.

Standard XRP futures cover 10,000 XRP per contract, are also settled in USD, and are aimed at larger institutions and active traders.

This variety lets you choose a position size that matches your risk tolerance and investment strategy. 

But what do terms like “cash-settled” actually mean?

Both Nano and Standard XRP futures are contracts that let you trade based on the price of XRP — but you don’t actually own or receive XRP. You’re trading contracts that track XRP’s price.

And, when the contract closes, the difference between your entry and exit price is calculated (profit or loss) and settled in USD — this is what cash settlement means. 

Did you know? Other products offered by the Coinbase Derivatives exchange include more than 20 futures contracts on assets such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Dogecoin (DOGE), Solana (SOL), Chainlink (LINK) and Stellar (XLM).

Why choose XRP futures contracts over buying XRP?

You might be wondering why someone would choose futures over simply buying XRP on the spot market.

Here are a few reasons:

Leverage: Futures often allow you to control a large position with a relatively small amount of capital. While this can amplify gains, it also increases potential losses.

Hedging: If you already hold XRP and expect short-term volatility, futures can be used to protect your portfolio.

Speculation: Futures allow you to take both long (bullish) and short (bearish) positions, so you can potentially benefit from market moves in either direction.

No wallet or storage needs: Buying XRP requires a secure wallet and managing private keys, which carries risks like hacking or loss. Futures contracts are financial instruments traded on exchanges, eliminating the need for direct XRP custody.

Liquidity and accessibility: Futures markets often have high liquidity, making it easier to enter and exit positions. Some exchanges offer XRP futures with lower barriers than buying XRP on certain crypto platforms, especially in regions with regulatory restrictions.

Cash settlement: Many XRP futures are cash-settled, meaning you settle profits or losses in fiat or stablecoins without handling XRP itself, simplifying the process for traders avoiding crypto custody.

When to choose futures contracts:

You want to trade XRP price movements with leverage or flexibility to go long or short.

You prefer not to deal with crypto wallets or custody.

You’re hedging an existing XRP position or portfolio.

You’re comfortable with the risks and complexities of derivatives.

When to buy XRP:

You believe in XRP’s long-term value and want to hold it as an investment.

You plan to use XRP for transactions or in its ecosystem (e.g., Ripple’s payment network).

You want to avoid the risks of leverage and futures margin calls.

Ultimately, futures suit active traders or those seeking leveraged exposure, while buying XRP could be ideal for long-term holders or users of the asset. You must always assess your risk tolerance and goals before deciding whether to invest in XRP or XRP futures.

Did you know? The MarketVector™ Coinbase XRP Benchmark Rate provides a robust USD price reference exclusively for XRP traded on the Coinbase Exchange. It includes no other assets and no other exchanges — just XRP, just Coinbase.

Where to invest in XRP futures

If you’re looking to invest in XRP futures, there are several platforms (other than Coinbase) offering access depending on your location and trading needs.

Kraken Futures: Kraken provides XRP futures with leverage. In Australia, access is limited to wholesale clients through Beaufort Fiduciaries Pty Ltd (AFSL no. 545124). In the United Kingdom, only clients classified as Professional Clients under Financial Conduct Authority rules can trade through Crypto Facilities Limited (FRN: 757895).

Binance: Binance offers XRP/USDT perpetual futures contracts, allowing users to trade XRP without an expiry date. These contracts support leverage, giving traders flexibility in managing exposure. However, as of May 28, 2024, Binance no longer supports XRP as a margin asset under its “Multi-Assets Mode,” though XRP futures remain available in other trading modes.

OKX: OKX also provides XRP/USDT perpetual swaps, which let traders speculate on XRP price movements continuously. While OKX delisted XRP expiry futures contracts in December 2024, perpetual swaps are still supported. Traders can apply leverage and adjust positions based on their risk strategy.

Bitget: It is a globally accessible platform that offers XRP futures with options to take long or short positions. It features a user-friendly interface, making it suitable for both new and experienced traders, though availability depends on regional regulations.

KuCoin Futures: KuCoin supports XRP perpetual contracts (XRP/USDT) with leverage. The platform is known for low trading fees and offers various features for different trading strategies. It’s accessible in many countries, with some regional restrictions.

MEXC: It provides XRP futures in both USDt-margined and coin-margined formats. MEXC supports high leverage and offers educational tools, catering to traders of all levels. The platform is available in most regions, though users should check for local compliance.

Delta Exchange: It lists XRP perpetual futures with leverage up to 100x. It’s known for low fees and advanced risk management tools. The platform is available to traders in several countries, depending on local laws.

Bitfinex: Lastly, Bitfinex offers XRP futures as part of its broader derivatives portfolio. Its platform caters to advanced users with customizable strategies. Access is region-dependent, and traders must ensure eligibility based on their location.

Did you know? Coinbase crypto derivatives are not available to retail clients based in the United Kingdom or Spain due to local regulatory restrictions. 

How to invest in XRP futures 

If you’re interested in trading XRP futures, here are general steps to get started:

Choose a platform: Select a regulated exchange offering XRP futures, such as Coinbase’s US Derivatives Exchange. Create an account and complete identity verification, which typically involves submitting a valid ID and proof of address.

Understand the product: Research how XRP futures contracts work, including contract sizes (e.g., Coinbase offers standard contracts of 10,000 XRP or nano contracts of 500 XRP), margin requirements, leverage options and fees. Futures are complex, so review the exchange’s documentation and understand risks, such as liquidation.

Fund your account: Deposit USD or another accepted currency to use as collateral (margin) for trading. Check the platform’s minimum deposit and margin requirements. For example, Coinbase settles futures in USD, and you can fund via bank transfer or debit card.

Place your trade: Use the platform’s trading interface (e.g., Coinbase Advanced) to select XRP futures contracts (symbol: XRL for standard XRP contracts on Coinbase). Decide whether to go long (buy) or short (sell), set your position size, and apply any leverage if available. Confirm the trade after reviewing details.

Practice risk management: Futures carry high risks due to leverage and volatility. Set stop-loss orders, limit position sizes based on your risk tolerance, and avoid risking more than you can afford to lose. For instance, some exchanges pause trading if the underlying asset’s price moves over 10% in an hour to mitigate volatility risks.

Monitor the market: Track XRP’s price, market sentiment, funding rates and external factors like regulatory news or macroeconomic trends. Use tools like candlestick charts or technical indicators on the platform to inform your strategy. Stay updated to adjust positions and avoid unexpected losses.

Oregon targets Coinbase over XRP, cites securities violations

Oregon’s Attorney General has sued Coinbase, claiming the exchange offered unregistered securities, including XRP. The lawsuit argues that a wide range of digital assets traded on the platform qualify as investment contracts under state law.

State officials say the case is part of a broader effort to step in where federal enforcement has pulled back. Legal experts note that while the outcome won’t set a national precedent, it could influence how regulators and courts approach similar cases.

The timing is notable — just weeks after the SEC dropped its case against Ripple and days after Coinbase listed XRP futures on its US derivatives exchange.

Did you know? On March 25, 2025, Ripple Labs settled its long-standing legal dispute with the SEC. As part of the agreement, Ripple consented to pay a reduced fine of $50 million — down from the original $125 million — without admitting any wrongdoing.

How risky are crypto futures?

Futures trading offers opportunities, but it comes with significant risks — especially if you’re new to derivatives. Here’s what you should keep in mind:

Leverage risk: While leverage can increase your returns, it also amplifies losses. A small price move in the wrong direction can quickly deplete your account.

Volatility: XRP is known for its sharp price swings. Futures contracts can exaggerate the impact of volatility on your position.

Funding rates: Perpetual futures contracts charge periodic funding fees, which can eat into profits if held long-term.

Liquidation: If the market moves against you and your margin falls below the required level, your position may be automatically closed — often at a loss.

Complexity: Futures are more complicated than spot trading. Understanding contract terms, funding rates and expiry dates is crucial to managing your trades effectively.

Market liquidity: While XRP is a liquid asset, futures trading depends on active participation. Thin order books can lead to slippage and unexpected price movements.

Emotional pressure: The fast-paced nature of futures trading can lead to impulsive decisions. Discipline and a clear strategy are essential.

If you’re new to this type of trading, consider starting with a demo account or using nano contracts to reduce your exposure while you learn. Trade smart — your safety’s on you!

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ethereum is entering one of its most precarious periods since its inception. Usage on the base layer is plummeting, core metrics are nearing multi-year lows, and even co-founder Vitalik Buterin is proposing a radical architectural overhaul. 

Institutions aren’t waiting to see how it plays out. Blockchain data shows that long-time supporters such as Galaxy Digital and Paradigm have been slashing their Ether (ETH) holdings in recent weeks. 

So far in April, Ethereum’s base-layer activity has continued to collapse. Ethereum’s network fees are dropping, and inflation has been rising. Though layer-2 networks continue to develop, they’re cannibalizing the base layer’s value capture.

But the story isn’t entirely about Ethereum’s collapse. Some whales are treating this downturn as a rare buying opportunity. Even those who are selling Ether can’t fully let it go.

Ethereum gets dumped by institutions, but for how long?

Institutions are dumping Ethereum, but it’s the ex they keep checking on. It’s not entirely out of the picture — just benched while they explore options like Solana (SOL).

In recent weeks, blockchain analysts on the lookout for large crypto movements spotted several institutions moving ETH out of their tagged wallets, likely to sell. Lookonchain reported that Galaxy Digital deposited 65,600 ETH ($105.5 million) to Binance. The investment firm’s Ether exposure rose to as high as around 98,000 coins in February, but that has dropped to almost 68,000 ETH at the time of writing, Arkham data shows.

Galaxy dumps Ether, but not all of it. Source: Arkham

Galaxy’s holdings may have declined in recent weeks, but they’re still higher compared to the start of the year. Its Ether holdings reflect a broader trend seen in Ethereum-based investment products. According to CoinShares, ETH funds saw $26.7 million in outflows over the past week, bringing total outflows to $772 million over eight weeks. However, year-to-date flows remain positive, with $215 million in net inflows. 

As Galaxy trimmed its Ether holdings, it also withdrew 752,240 SOL ($98.37 million), Lookonchain reported. Ethereum lost considerable momentum to Solana, which became the chain of choice during the memecoin casino frenzy that dominated much of 2024 and early 2025. While that eventually cooled amid rampant scams, bots and low-quality tokens, it also served as a technical showcase for Solana — proving its ability to process massive transaction volumes without major fee spikes or outages.

Related: Pump.fun’s memecoin freak show may result in criminal charges: Expert

Paradigm is another investor that has cut back on Ether. On April 21, it moved 5,500 ETH ($8.66 million) to Anchorage Digital. Paradigm transferred around 97,000 ETH (around $301.57 million) to Anchorage from January 2024, which was then moved to centralized exchanges, as onchain analyst EmberCN pointed out.

Paradigm Capital held about 236,000 ETH in 2019 but holds 2,873 ETH on April 23. Source: Arkham

“While institutional investors initially bought into the ‘ultra-sound money’ narrative, they’re now facing a reality where decreasing protocol revenue and weakening tokenomics create legitimate concerns,” Jayendra Jog, co-founder of Sei Labs, told Cointelegraph.

Ethereum returns to net inflationary state

Ether deflation has been an attractive selling point to Ethereum investors. It was integrated into the network through two major upgrades. First, the London hard fork of August 2021 introduced Ethereum Improvement Proposal 1559, which partially burns transaction fees. Then in the Merge upgrade of September 2022, Ethereum became a proof-of-stake network and drastically cut new token issuance.

Ether’s supply consistently decreased following the Merge until April 2024, when Ether’s inflation began to accelerate. By early February 2025, the total ETH supply had surpassed its Merge level.

Ether’s total supply is approximately 186,705 ETH higher than it was at the time of the Merge. Source: Ultra Sound Money

Part of Ether’s inflation has been due to dropping fees, which results in less Ether burned. According to data from IntoTheBlock, Ethereum collected 1,873.52 ETH in fees from April 14 to April 21. That’s slightly higher than the 1,697.61 ETH in fees from the week starting on March 17, which was the lowest amount of fees collected (measured in ETH) since July 31, 2017.

Ethereum base layer’s fees drop to 2017 levels. Source: IntoTheBlock

Buterin’s radical RISC-V proposal for Ethereum

On April 20, Buterin proposed the RISC-V instruction set to substitute the current Ethereum Virtual Machine contract language, aiming to improve the speed and efficiency of the network’s execution layer. Some view the proposal as a white flag on the existing architecture.

Source: Rooter

“Vitalik’s RISC-V proposal is essentially an acknowledgment that the EVM’s fundamental architecture has reached its limits. When Ethereum’s founder proposes replacing the core VM that underpins the entire ecosystem, it signals not evolution but recognition of a design limitation that can’t be incrementally improved,” Jog said.

Cointelegraph has reached out to the Ethereum Foundation and will update this article when it answers.

Related: A guide to crypto trading bots: Analyzing strategies and performance

The proposal follows a leadership shuffling in the Ethereum Foundation following rising complaints on the project’s direction. 

Could Ethereum be the one that got away?

Part of Ethereum’s struggles has been attributed to its rollup-centric approach to scaling its network. The idea was to build layer-2 scaling networks that would offload the transactions from the base chain but still utilize its security. That has alleviated congestion issues during times of high network demand but has also created new problems of its own, such as dropping Ether burns and fragmentation of the Ethereum ecosystem.

But there is an increased focus on layer-1 scaling, according to Tomasz Stańczak, the new co-executive director of the Ethereum Foundation. Stańczak said on X that the Ethereum Foundation will shift its focus to near-term goals, such as layer-1 scaling and layer-2 scaling support.

Source: Tomasz Stańczak

Some whales have taken advantage of Ethereum’s cheaper price tag. On April 23, Lookonchain identified two wallets accumulating millions of dollars worth of ETH. The blockchain monitor identified another wallet on April 22 that has accumulated over $100 million in ETH since Feb. 15. Ether is currently down from the plus-$4,000 it reached in December but rose over 10% on April 23 to over $1,800. 

In a recent client letter, Standard Chartered Bank slashed its 2025 price estimate for Ether from $10,000. However, for whales accumulating at current levels, upside potential remains, as the bank still predicts a year-end target of $4,000.

Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital assets research, attributed the more cautious outlook to Ethereum’s structural decline, noting that the layer-2 networks designed to improve scalability are now extracting much of the fee revenue once captured by the base layer.

Magazine: What are native rollups? Full guide to Ethereum’s latest innovation