Bitcoin (BTC) is bracing for a major US macro data week as crypto market participants warn of serious volatility next.

Bitcoin retests $92,000 after a promising weekly close, but traders still see a deeper BTC price correction to come.

A bumper week of US macro data comes with the Federal Reserve under pressure on multiple fronts.

The Fed has its hands tied, analysis argues, predicting interest rates coming down, liquidity booming and BTC/USD reaching $180,000 within eighteen months.

Bitcoin short-term holders are back in the black, making current price levels especially pertinent for speculative investors.

Sentiment is in neutral territory, but crowd-based FOMO may keep price from rising much higher, research concludes.

Bitcoin traders wait for support retest

Bitcoin is circling multimonth highs as the week gets underway, having tested $92,000 as support after the weekly close.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

That close itself was bullish, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms, coming in at just above the key yearly open level of $93,500.

#BTC

Can Bitcoin do it?

Can Bitcoin Weekly Close above $93500 to start the process of regaining the previous Range?$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/r5reRJ0HFy pic.twitter.com/5ga0gcSqX4

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 27, 2025

Forecasting an “interesting week” to come, popular trader CrypNuevo eyed the potential for higher highs for BTC/USD.

“Pretty simple – I don’t see momentum rolling over just yet and it’s possible to see a third leg up up $97k where there is some liquidity,” he wrote in a thread on X. 

“Eventually, we should see a 4H50EMA retest that can be a potential support.”BTC/USD 4-hour chart with 50 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

CrypNuevo referred to the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on 4-hour timeframes, currently at $91,850.

On the topic of likely support retests, fellow trader Roman had a deeper retracement in mind.

“Waiting to see what happens at 88k,” he told X followers. 

“Not a believer in breaking 94k resistance any time soon.”BTC/USD 1-day chart with stochastic RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Roman reiterated that the stochastic relative strength index (RSI) metric remained heavily overbought, a sign that a cooling-off period for price may follow.

Trader and commentator Skew meanwhile focused on the area between $90,000 and $92,000, describing “indecision” in the market resulting in current price action.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: Skew/X

GDP, PCE prints headline major macro week

It’s crunch time for US macroeconomic data and inflation progress this week, with a slew of numbers coming thick and fast.

Q1 GDP, nonfarm payrolls and tech earnings are all due, but the highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.

Set for release on April 30, both PCE and GDP precede the monthly candle close, setting the stage for crypto and risk-asset volatility.

The stakes are already high — US trade tariffs have resulted in wild swings both up and down for crypto, stocks and commodities, with seemingly no end in sight for now.

“This has been one of the most volatile years in history: The S&P 500 has seen a 2% move in either direction on 23% of trading days, or at least once a week so far this year,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in part of ongoing X analysis. 

“This is the highest reading since 2022, when the share hit 29% for the full year. By comparison, the long-term average has been twice a month.”S&P 500 volatility data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Inflation expectations are a key topic, meanwhile, with markets seeing interest rate cuts beginning in June despite the Fed itself staying hawkish.

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows diverging opinions over what will result from the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

By contrast, May’s FOMC gathering is almost unanimously expected to deliver a freeze on the current Fed funds rate.

Fed target rate probabilities for June FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

“Evidence of a strong labor market and concerns over how tariffs could impact the inflation outlook is keeping the Fed on hold when it comes to interest rates,” trading firm Mosaic Asset wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic,” on April 27.

Referencing FedWatch, Mosaic noted that “market-implied odds are starting to shift in favor of more rate cuts through year-end.”

Crypto exec doubles down on $180K BTC price target

Existing macro data is already causing a stir for crypto market participants eyeing the long-term implications of current Fed policy.

In his latest X analysis, hedge fund founder Dan Tapiero had a bold BTC price prediction in store for the coming eighteen months.

“Btc to 180k before summer ’26,” he summarized.

Tapiero pointed to a recent Fed survey showing manufacturing expectations, deteriorating at a record pace, calling the results “hard for them to ignore.”

“Forward market inflation indicators collapsing into danger zone,” he continued in a separate post on the outlook for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

In both cases, Tapiero concluded that Bitcoin and risk assets will benefit from increasing market liquidity — an already popular theory against the backdrop of record M2 money supply.

“Liquidity spigot coming as real rates too restrictive given fiscal tightening,” he added about current interest rates.

US CPI data. Source: Dan Tapiero/X

Bitcoin speculators turn a profit

Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) are back under the microscope at current prices thanks to the influence of their aggregate cost basis on market trajectory.

As Cointelegraph often reports, the cost basis, also known as realized price, reflects the average price at which speculative investors entered the market.

This level, which covers buyers over the past six months but which is also broken down into various subcategories, is particularly important in Bitcoin bull markets.

“Today, when we look at the current situation, we can see that the price has reached the STH-Realized Price,” CryptoMe, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on the topic.

CryptoQuant shows that the combined STH cost basis currently sits at around $92,000, making the level key to hold as support going forward.

“One of the key On-Chain conditions for a bull run is that the price remains above the STH-Realized Price. If the price is below the Realized Prices, we cannot truly talk about a bull run,” CryptoMe explains.

“If this bull run is to continue, it must meet these conditions.”Bitcoin STH realized price data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

The STH cost basis was lost as support in March, with the recent BTC price rebound having a near-instant impact on its most recent buyers.

STH-owned coins moving onchain earlier this month meanwhile led to predictions of fresh market volatility. 

Research warns of greed-induced “local top”

After hitting its highest in nearly three months last week, greed within crypto is on the radar as a price influence this week.

Related: New Bitcoin price all-time highs could occur in May — Here is why

The latest data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index confirms a spike to 72/100 on April 25, implying that crypto market sentiment came close to “extreme greed.”

Now back in “neutral” territory, the Index has nonetheless led research firm Santiment to warn of a potential local price top.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

“Data shows a surge in optimism from the crowd as $BTC rebounded above $95K for the first time since February,” it told X followers. 

“As for the level of greed being measured across social media, this is the highest spike in bullish (vs. bearish) posts since the night Trump was elected on November 5, 2024.”Crypto market sentiment data. Source: Santiment/X

An accompanying chart covered what Santiment describes as “excitement and FOMO” peaking as a result of the BTC price rebound.

“The crowd’s level of greed vs. fear is very likely going to influence whether a local top forms (because the crowd gets too greedy), or if crypto can continue to decouple from the S&P 500 (because the crowd tries to prematurely take profit),” it added.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Chinese tech giant Huawei has reportedly developed a powerful artificial intelligence chip that could rival high-end processors from US chip maker Nvidia.

The Shenzhen-based Huawei is poised to start testing a new AI chip called the Ascend 910D, and has approached local tech firms, which are slated to receive the first batch of sample chips by late May, The Wall Street Journal reported on April 27, citing people familiar with the matter.

The development is still at an early stage, and a series of tests will be needed to assess the chip’s performance and get it ready for customers.

Huawei is pinning hopes on its latest Ascend AI processor being more powerful than Nvidia’s H100 chip, which was used for AI training in 2022.

Huawei is also poised to ship more than 800,000 earlier model Ascend 910B and 910C chips to customers, including state-owned telecoms operators and private AI developers such as TikTok parent ByteDance.

Beijing has also reportedly encouraged Chinese AI developers to increase purchases of domestic chips as trade tensions between China and the US escalate. 

In mid-April, Nvidia stated that it was expecting around $5.5 billion in charges associated with its AI chip inventory due to significant export restrictions imposed by the US government affecting its business with China. 

The Trump administration added Nvidia’s H20 chip, its most powerful processor that could be sold to China, to a growing list of semiconductors restricted for sale to the country.

Some key components for AI chips, such as the latest high-bandwidth memory units, have also been restricted for export to China by the US. 

Huawei is focusing on building more efficient and faster systems, such as CloudMatrix 384, a computing system unveiled in April, connecting Ascend 910C chips. This would leverage their chip arrays and use brute force rather than making individual processors more powerful.

China seeks self-reliance on AI

Reuters reported on April 26, citing state media reports, that Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged “self-reliance and self-strengthening” to develop AI in the country.

“We must recognise the gaps and redouble our efforts to comprehensively advance technological innovation, industrial development, and AI-empowered applications,” Xi said at a Politburo meeting study session on April 25.

Donald Trump (left) meeting with Xi Jinping (right) in 2018 at the G20. Source: Dan Scavino

Related: US Senate bill threatens crypto, AI data centers with fees — Report

“We must continue to strengthen basic research, concentrate our efforts on mastering core technologies such as high-end chips and basic software, and build an independent, controllable, and collaborative artificial intelligence basic software and hardware system,” Xi added.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly urged Xi to contact him for discussions about a potential trade deal after his administration imposed 145% tariffs on most Chinese goods. 

China has stated that it is not having any talks with the US and that the country should “stop creating confusion.”

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The Donald Trump-backed World Liberty Financial has signed a Letter of Intent with the Pakistan Crypto Council to accelerate crypto adoption in the South Asian country and one of the industry’s fastest-growing markets.

Under the partnership, World Liberty will help the Council launch regulatory sandboxes to test blockchain-based products, expand stablecoin applications for remittances and trade, explore real-world asset tokenization, and assist with the growth of decentralized finance protocols, local news outlet Business Recorder reported on April 27.

World Liberty founders Zach Witkoff, Zak Folkman and Chase Herro signed the letter in a recent meeting with the Council’s CEO Bilal bin Saqib, with Pakistan’s central bank governor, finance minister and IT secretary among those in attendance.

Source: Pakistan Crypto Council

Trump and his family backed World Liberty at the crypto lending and borrowing platform’s launch last year and they receive a cut of its profits.

The Pakistan Crypto Council is a government-backed body that oversees crypto regulation and related initiatives aimed at driving adoption and attracting more foreign investment.

Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis ranked Pakistan ninth for crypto adoption last year, with an estimated 25 million active crypto users and $300 billion in annual crypto transactions. 

Pakistan is looking to capitalize on its young population, where roughly 60% are under 30, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said.

“Pakistan’s youth and technology sector are our greatest assets. Through partnerships like this, we are opening new doors for investment, innovation, and global leadership in the blockchain economy.”

Pakistan looks to balance pro-crypto innovation with regulation

The three World Liberty founders recently met with former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, who was recently appointed as an adviser to the Pakistan Crypto Council to assist the country on crypto regulation and innovation.

Pakistan’s Federal Investigation Agency also proposed a crypto regulatory framework on April 10, which looks to address terrorism financing, money laundering, and Know Your Customer controls.

Related: Pakistan Crypto Council proposes using excess energy for BTC mining

FIA Director Sumera Azam said the framework is part of a broader effort to strike a “balance between technological advancement and national security imperatives.”

The proposed framework is subject to legislative approval and input from crypto firms operating in the country, with an expected multi-phased rollout beginning in 2026.

Pakistan’s new crypto-friendly approach contrasts sharply with its stance in May 2023, when former finance minister Aisha Ghaus Pasha stated the country would never legalize cryptocurrencies due to concerns over bypassing Financial Action Task Force regulations.

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