Coin Market

Trade war vs. record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Published

2 weeks ago

April 14, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding down the fort as the US trade war rages on into the third week of April.

BTC price action attempts to overcome a long-term resistance trend line without success as trade war concerns dictate traders’ expectations.

Tariffs are the key macroeconomic topic of the week as risk assets brace for potential surprise headlines.

Bitcoin ETFs lost almost $800 million in a week, while Strategy indicates it has purchased the dip.

Despite tariff pressures, the weakness of the US dollar could be a blessing in disguise for Bitcoin and risky assets.

Global M2 money supply is at an all-time high and rising — will Bitcoin follow history and replicate its past?

Bulls battle a key BTC price resistance line

With traders on the lookout for tariff-related volatility this week, BTC price analysis is zooming out.

BTC/USD closed last week up 6.7%, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Next, however, comes the real test — breaking beyond a downward-sloping trend line that has capped the upside for months.

$BTC – #Bitcoin: I’m watching this chart closely. We might be ready. pic.twitter.com/Dtv1jkrzkP

— Crypto Caesar (@CryptoCaesarTA) April 12, 2025

“Rejected at key resistance, following the trendline perfectly,” popular trader Bitbull wrote in his latest post on the topic on X.

“If the breakdown continues, eyes on the $70K-$72K support zone for a possible bounce.”

BTC/USD 12-hour chart. Source: Bitbull/X

Fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital is also eyeing the trend line as a breakout proves hard to confirm.

“Bitcoin has Daily Closed above the Downtrend. Thus, breakout confirmation is underway,” he told X followers at the weekend.

“However BTC has previously Daily Closed above the Downtrend but failed its retest (a few of the red circles). Retest needs to be successful and it is in progress.”

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Popular trader AK47 on X posted separate upside and downside BTC price targets depending on the outcome of the trend line retest.

“$BTC might push to $88K—but don’t get too comfy,” he cautioned.

“Could be a fakeout, grabbing liquidity before dipping to $81K for that inverse head & shoulders setup. If that plays out, $95K–$100K isn’t far.”

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: AK47/X

Tariff talk keeps markets on edge

A quieter week for US macroeconomic data leaves initial jobless claims as the highlight while the ongoing trade war continues to dominate.

With China particularly in focus, risk assets and crypto face flash volatility should more surprises involving trade tariffs surface.

The weekend saw snap relief in that respect as US President Donald Trump announced a pause on tariffs for key tech products. As a result, Bitcoin climbed to eleven-day highs above $86,000.

Subsequent indications that the measures would be temporary then put renewed pressure on stocks’ futures, while BTC/USD retreated to circle $84,000 at the time of writing.

“We think the ‘tariff exemptions’ announced this weekend were originally intended to be temporary,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of an X reaction.

“The goal was to bring treasury yields back down before resuming the trade war.”

S&P 500 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Kobeissi suggested that markets had originally considered the move as a signal that the trade war might end completely, only to be disappointed a day later.

“Bonds will likely still rally along with stocks, but uncertainty has only grown. The bond market is king,” it added.

Continuing, trading firm Mosaic Asset agreed that bonds may have been crucial in altering policy trajectory last week.

“It’s the volatility in other areas of the markets like currencies and Treasury bonds that might have forced a quick pivot on trade and tariff policy,” it summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic,” on April 13.

“The uncertainty around tariffs has become a binary and unpredictable event for the stock market. Signs of tensions fuel further downside, while an easing of tensions sends stocks sharply in the other direction.”

Bitcoin ETF outflow “barely registers”

A sign of just how turbulent last week came in the form of net flows from the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

In one of the worst weeks ever for the ETF products since their debut in early 2024, total outflows passed $750 million.

For network economist Timothy Peterson, however, there is little to worry about.

Zooming out, he noted that even a nine-figure drawdown such as this makes hardly any difference to the overall investment pool that the ETFs have created in little more than a year.

“Last week, US Bitcoin ETFs had their 5th worst week ever (in terms of outflows). Over $700 million. Yet it barely registers as a blip on the chart,” he told X followers.

“That’s how big Bitcoin has become. That’s how sticky these investments are.”

US spot Bitcoin ETF balances. Source: Timothy Peterson/X

Among major investors seeking to “buy the dip,” meanwhile, is business intelligence firm Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), whose co-founder Michael Saylor hinted that it was upping its BTC exposure this weekend.

“No Tariffs on Orange Dots,” he wrote in an X post alongside a chart of Strategy’s acquisitions.

Strategy Bitcoin holdings data. Source: Michael Saylor

However, whether Bitcoin will emerge as an attractive proposition for the institutional investor cohort while trade war uncertainty continues is dubious.

A survey by Bank of America in late March showed that respondents overwhelmingly favored gold as a volatility hedge, with 58% choosing it.

“This compares to just 9% for 30-year Treasury Bonds and 3% for Bitcoin,” Kobeissi wrote while reporting on the findings.

“Throw in the US deficit spending crisis and gold quickly becomes the only global safe haven asset.”

BoA survey results. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Dollar dive gives risk assets hope of relief

The US dollar may yet provide some light at the end of the tunnel for wary risk-asset traders this week.

The trade war has taken its toll on the greenback, and when measured against major trading partner currencies, its weakness is plain to see.

The US dollar index (DXY) fell to three-year lows last week and, at the time of writing, is challenging those lows once more.

Markets selling dollar even lower Monday. DXY fell through 100 and also the 2023 low over last few hours, now at lowest in 3 years pic.twitter.com/MJ8wvvJuY2

— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) April 14, 2025

While far from constant, Bitcoin’s relationship with dollar strength tends to show that gains occur after major DXY losses — albeit with a delay of several months.

To that end, popular analytics account Bitcoindata21 is eyeing a repeat of events from 2017, resulting in BTC/USD all-time highs at the end of the year.

US dollar index (DXY) fractal. Source: Bitcoindata21/X

Another chart uploaded to X at the weekend showed the relationship between DXY, Bitcoin and the S&P 500, providing ideal conditions for a long-term bottom in the latter.

The last time such a signal came was around one month before the pit of the Bitcoin bear market in late 2022.

“I got 99 problems but the DXY aint 1,” Bitcoindata21 summarized.

BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 vs. DXY chart. Source: Bitcoindata21/X

A bull market rebound in the making?

On longer timeframes, an equally promising trend is playing out for Bitcoin bulls.

The global M2 money supply, with which Bitcoin price action is positively correlated, is seeking to break out beyond all-time highs.

“Global M2 has remained at an ATH for 3 days in a row,” popular analyst Colin Talks Crypto noted in a dedicated X post on the phenomenon this weekend.

“This is a fantastic sign for what it signals will be coming into risk assets in ~108 days.”

BTC/USD vs. global M2 supply. Source: Colin Talks Crypto/X

The post refers to a chain reaction in which sharp moves in global M2 spark copycat behavior for Bitcoin once the latency period expires.

Before that, however, there may be a final opportunity to “buy the dip.”

“Global M2 (with a 108-day offset) doesn’t show a blast-off for another ~2 1/2 weeks, and actually shows a slow bleed into next week until around April 16th or 17th,” Colin Talks Crypto acknowledged.

Earlier this month, the analyst predicted a “big M2 influx” incoming, with a corresponding BTC price rebound beginning in May.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Coin Market

Ethereum community members propose new fee structure for the app layer

Published

29 minutes ago

April 27, 2025

Two Ethereum community members, Kevin Owocki and Devansh Mehta, proposed a dynamic fee structure for the Ethereum application layer to strike a balance between revenue generation for app builders and fairness in fee extraction.

The April 27 proposal outlined a simple equation that uses a square root function that proportionally lowers the percentage of fees as the funding capital allocated to a particular project grows. Owocki and Mehta explained:

“For smaller funding amounts, the fee follows a square root function (sqrt(1000 x N)), providing proportionally higher returns to make building mechanisms for smaller pools worthwhile. For example, if the funding pool is $170,000, then the root of 1000 x 170,000 equals $13,038.4 or 7% is taken as overhead.”

The authors of the proposal added that fees would be capped at 1% once a particular application’s funding pool crossed the $10 million level, ensuring that small app builders can develop decentralized applications without excess fees while also encouraging project and funding growth by capping fees as developers scale their applications.

A visualization of the proposed fee structure tapering off at higher project funding levels. Source: Ethereum Research

Owocki and Mehta’s proposal to balance revenue generation and profitability among Ethereum’s app builders reflects the growing calls to reform fee structures and value accrual mechanisms to maintain Ethereum’s economic viability against competing networks.

Ethereum’s competitors ramp up heat as Ethereum faces revenue crunch

In 2024, the Solana ecosystem onboarded more developers than the Ethereum network, attracting 7,625 new developers compared with Ethereum’s 6,456.

Despite the surge in software developers building on the Solana network in 2024, Ethereum remains the dominant ecosystem for attracting developer talent, although the 2024 data shows that position is no longer uncontested.

The Solana network is now the number two choice for decentralized application developers and is catching up to Ethereum. Source: Electric Capital

According to onchain analytics firm Santiment, Ethereum fees dropped to five-year lows in April 2025 due to low activity on the Ethereum base layer resulting from reduced demand for smart contract operations like decentralized finance.

This reduced demand is leading to many institutions scaling back their Ether (ETH) holdings or selling off portions of their investment as investor sentiment toward the first-ever smart-contract platform continues to erode without any clear catalysts for a reversal.

Magazine: Ethereum is destroying the competition in the $16.1T TradFi tokenization race

Coin Market

Crypto price manipulation explained: How cybercriminals influence the market

Published

3 hours ago

April 27, 2025

What is crypto price manipulation?

When a coin moons out of nowhere and then crashes just as fast — it is rarely pure market magic.

Cryptocurrency price manipulation is the dark art of bending the market to your will. It is when insiders or coordinated groups inflate or crash a coin’s price, not through real demand, but through smoke and mirrors. They might fake volume, spread hype, trigger fear, or pull sudden sell-offs — all to trap unsuspecting traders and walk away with the profits.

In traditional finance, this kind of behavior gets you fined or jailed. But what about in the world of crypto? It often flies under the radar. With light regulations and heavy emotions in play, the digital asset market has become a playground for manipulators, especially where liquidity is low and oversight is weaker.

Here’s the classic playbook:

Manipulators create fake demand or fearThe price spikes or crashes based on emotional reactions from other tradersThe manipulators sell or buy at the right momentThe rest of the market suffers the consequences.

The most common crypto market manipulation tactics

Scammers don’t need magic — they just need market psychology and a few tricks.

As the digital asset landscape expands, criminals have honed various crypto price manipulation tactics. Each tactic capitalizes on the market’s volatility and traders’ fear of missing out (FOMO). Let’s break down the most used:

Pump-and-dump: This scheme starts with a coordinated group quietly buying a low-cap token. They then ignite hype through influencers, fake news or viral posts to drive the price up rapidly. As retail investors rush in, the group sells at the top — causing the price to crash. Latecomers are left holding devalued tokens, having bought into the illusion of explosive growth.

Whale moves: Whales — wallets holding large amounts of crypto – can shift market trends with a single trade. Their massive buy or sell orders influence price direction and trigger emotional responses from smaller traders. Many follow the whale’s lead, thinking they know something others don’t, which compounds the volatility. Some whales use this effect strategically to buy low and sell high.Wash trading: This usually involves a single user who buys and sells the same token to themselves to artificially inflate trading volume. This creates a false sense of activity and demand, misleading investors into thinking the project is more legitimate or liquid than it really is. It’s especially common on unregulated exchanges and can help tokens climb rankings on tracking platforms.Spoofing and layering: In spoofing, manipulators place large fake orders to buy or sell without intending to execute them. This gives the illusion of strong market interest and influences price action. Layering uses multiple fake orders at different price levels to amplify the effect. Once real traders react, the fake orders are removed and the manipulator takes profit, leaving others chasing phantom momentum.Did you know? According to a 2022 study, 70% of transactions on unregulated crypto exchanges are wash trades — with some platforms seeing volumes as high as 80%.

Behind the scenes: Advanced crypto price manipulation tactics

Not all crypto price manipulation is obvious. Some of it is deeply technical — or done in silence.

Beyond basic scams, cybercriminals use more complex tactics to manipulate and sway the market.

Bots manipulating crypto prices: High-frequency trading bots can front-run trades, spoof orders, or simulate volume — all faster than any human.Insider trading in crypto: When someone trades on non-public info (like a token listing or partnership), it gives them an unfair edge. And yes — it happens.Oracle manipulation: Hackers sometimes exploit oracles — the tools that feed price data into decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. Faking a price feed can drain liquidity pools or trick smart contracts.Did you know? In 2020, a hacker used a flash loan to manipulate an oracle on bZx, stealing millions in seconds. It was one of the first examples of oracle-based fraud.

Why manipulation works: Psychology over logic

In crypto, emotion moves faster than reason — and scammers know it.

Even experienced traders fall for manipulation because it plays on powerful instincts. Because the market moves fast, decisions are often made in the heat of the moment — on gut feeling, not deep analysis. And manipulators are experts at pressing the right emotional buttons.

Greed is the oldest trick in the book. Everyone wants to catch the next 100x gem, and scammers know how to dress up trash as treasure. A few flashy tweets, a celebrity shoutout and, suddenly, a random coin looks like the ticket to financial freedom.

Fear is just as powerful. One big red candle can trigger a chain reaction of panic selling. Manipulators use this to buy back cheap, while everyone else scrambles to exit.

FOMO is the final piece. When traders see others making big gains, logic goes out the window. Instead of researching, they ape in, hoping not to be left behind.

These emotions are hardwired. They’re faster than logic, and in crypto, speed is everything. Manipulators don’t need to hack wallets or break code — they just hack human behavior. Stir up just the right storm of excitement or dread, and the market plays right into their hands.

Did you know? The infamous Squid Game Token soared tens of thousands of percent before crashing to zero. It was a textbook rug pull — but the hype was too loud for many to resist.

What crypto price manipulation does to the market

One scam doesn’t just hurt victims — it damages the entire ecosystem.

Crypto price manipulation doesn’t happen in a vacuum. Every fake pump, every engineered crash, every orchestrated scam chips away at the foundation of the entire crypto ecosystem: trust.

When retail traders — especially newcomers — get caught in a pump-and-dump or a whale-induced panic, the damage runs deeper than a single bad trade. Many walk away for good, disillusioned and angry, taking their money and optimism with them. The promise of open, decentralized finance starts to look like just another casino — rigged and unforgiving.

And it doesn’t stop there. High-profile cryptocurrency frauds and price manipulation scandals light up the radar of regulators worldwide. Each incident becomes a case study in why crypto “needs to be tamed.” That means stricter rules, more compliance hoops and an overall slowdown in innovation. The free-spirited, experimental energy that drives crypto forward starts to feel boxed in.

Meanwhile, legit projects — those building real utility, transparency and long-term value — struggle to rise above the noise. Scam tokens dominate the charts. Shady influencers flood timelines. The signal gets buried under waves of hype and deception.

In the end, crypto price manipulation doesn’t just hurt individual investors. It poisons the well for everyone — developers, communities and the future of the space itself.

Did you know? The memecoin craze has pulled in not just investors — but celebrities, too. From hyped tokens to sudden rug pulls, in 2024, several celeb-backed crypto projects have gone off the rails, blurring the line between fame and fraud.

How to protect yourself from crypto manipulation

You can’t control the market — but you can avoid its traps.

Here are practical steps to avoid falling for crypto scams and manipulation:

DYOR (Do Your Own Research): Don’t rely on TikTok tips or Telegram groups. Look into the token’s team, roadmap, use case and trading history.Watch trading volume: Sudden spikes or weirdly low volume can signal wash trading or a setup for manipulation.Monitor whale activity: Use tools like Whale Alert or blockchain explorers to spot big wallet movements.Use trusted platforms: Stick to exchanges that actively monitor for illegal crypto trading tactics like spoofing and wash trading.Keep learning: Stay up to date on the latest tactics and red flags. Knowledge is your best defense.

The push for safer crypto markets

The good news? The crypto world is fighting back.

The crypto universe might still feel like the digital frontier, but it is no longer a lawless land. Across the ecosystem, the good guys — builders, platforms and policymakers — are stepping in to make the space more transparent, resilient and secure for users.

Crypto exchanges are starting to unleash AI-powered surveillance tools designed to spot shady behavior in real time. Wash trading? Spoofing? Pump-and-dump groups? These algorithms are already trained to catch the tricks before they catch you.

On the DeFi side, protocols are stepping up with on-chain governance and transparency upgrades. Communities can now vote on key actions, track wallet movements, and call out suspicious patterns — all out in the open.

And regulators? They are finally moving from the sidelines to the rulebook. New legislation is targeting insider trading, fake promotions and market abuse, bringing long-overdue accountability to crypto’s fast lanes.

Is the system foolproof yet? Far from it. But every smart contract, policy update and AI model pushing back against manipulation is a win for the space.

So, if crypto scams thrive in the dark, knowledge is your flashlight. If a token’s mooning with no clear reason, pause. If something does not feel right, it probably is not. Trust your gut, not the hype. Because in the end, staying informed is your best defense — and your smartest investment.

Coin Market

Federal taxes to be 'substantially reduced' once tariffs set in: Trump

Published

4 hours ago

April 27, 2025

United States President Donald Trump recently said that federal income taxes would be “substantially reduced” or potentially eliminated once the tariff regime fully sets in.

In an April 27 Truth Social post, Trump added that the focus of the purported tax cuts would be on individuals making less than $200,000 per year.

The US President also said that the “External Revenue Service” — a reference to funding the federal government exclusively through import tariffs instead of the current model of collecting taxes through the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) — is materializing.

Eliminating the federal income tax would likely be a positive catalyst for asset prices, including cryptocurrencies, as the increase in disposable income should partially flow back into productive investments. However, this stimulative effect is not guaranteed.

Source: Donald Trump

Trump’s plan leaves analysts and markets doubting

Trump previously floated the idea of eliminating the federal income tax in an October 2024 appearance on the Joe Rogan Experience, although Trump, who was on the campaign trail at the time, provided scant concrete details on the proposal.

The US President suggested that replacing the federal income tax with revenue from import duties would return the US to a time of prosperity seen during the Gilded Age, in the 19th century, when the US did not have a permanent federal income tax.

Research conducted by accounting automation company Dancing Numbers found that Trump’s proposal could save the average American $134,809 in lifetime tax payments.

Dancing Numbers added that the tax savings could be as much as $325,561 per American if other wage-based income taxes are also eliminated.

On April 2, Trump signed an executive order imposing sweeping tariffs on all US trading partners, which included a 10% baseline tariff on all countries and different “reciprocal” tariff rates on countries with import duties on US goods.

However, since that time, the Trump administration walked back its tariff policies several times, flip-flopping on tariff rates and when the tariff regime would fully take effect.

The Trump administration’s ever-changing rhetoric surrounding trade policies has heightened volatility in the US stock market, caused a rise in US bond yields, and has drawn widespread criticism from financial analysts who say the protectionist trade policies hurt capital markets while achieving little else.

Magazine: Harris’ unrealized gains tax could ‘tank markets’: Nansen’s Alex Svanevik, X Hall of Flame