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Bitcoin traders prepare for rally to $100K as ‘decoupling’ and ‘gold leads BTC’ trend takes shape

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Bitcoin (BTC) price could head back toward the $100,000 level quicker than investors expected if the early signs of its decoupling from the US stock market and gold continue.

Source: Cory Bates / X

The “gold leads, Bitcoin follows” relationship is starting

Bitcoin has shrugged off the market jitters caused by US President Donald Trump’s April 2 global tariff announcement.

While BTC initially dropped over 3% to around $82,500, it eventually rebounded by roughly 4.5% to cross $84,700. In contrast, the S&P 500 plunged 10.65% this week, and gold—after hitting a record $3,167 on April 3—has slipped 4.8%.

BTC/USD vs. gold and S&P 500 daily performance chart. Source: TradingView

The fresh divergence is fueling the “gold-leads-Bitcoin narrative,” taking cues from price trends from late 2018 through mid-2019 to predict a strong price recovery toward $100,000.

Gold began a steady ascent, gaining nearly 15% by mid-2019, while Bitcoin remained largely flat. Bitcoin’s breakout followed shortly after, rallying over 170% in early 2019 and then surging another 344% by late 2020.

BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

“A reclaim of $100k would imply a handoff from gold to BTC,” said market analyst MacroScope, adding:

“As in previous cycles, this would open the door to a new period of huge outperformance by BTC over gold and other assets.

The outlook aligned with Alpine Fox founder Mike Alfred, who shared an analysis from March 14, wherein he anticipated Bitcoin to grow 10 times or more than gold based on previous instances.

Source: Mike Alfred / X

Bitcoin-to-gold ratio warns of a bull trap

Bitcoin may be eyeing a drop toward $65,000, based on a bearish fractal playing out in the Bitcoin-to-gold (BTC/XAU) ratio.

The BTC/XAU ratio is flashing a familiar pattern that traders last saw in 2021. The breakdown followed a second major support test at the 50-2W exponential moving average.

BTC/XAU ratio two-week chart. Source: TradingView

BTC/XAU is now repeating this fractal and once again testing the red 50-EMA as support.

In the previous cycle, Bitcoin consolidated around the same EMA level before breaking decisively lower, eventually finding support at the 200-2W EMA (the blue wave). If history repeats, BTC/XAU could be on track for a deeper correction, especially if macro conditions worsen.

Interestingly, these breakdown cycles have coincided with a drop in Bitcoin’s value in dollar terms, as shown below.

BTC/USD 2W price chart. Source: TradingView

Should the fractal repeat, Bitcoin’s initial downside target could be its 50-2W EMA around the $65,000 level, with additional selloffs suggesting declines below $20,000, aligning with the 200-2W EMA.

A bounce from BTC/XAU’s 50-2W EMA, on the other hand, may invalidate the bearish fractal.

US recession would squash Bitcoin’s bullish outlook

From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin’s price outlook appears skewed to the downside.

Investors are concerned that President Donald Trump’s global tariff war could spiral into a full-blown trade war and trigger a US recession. Risk assets like Bitcoin tend to underperform during economic contractions.

Related: Bitcoin ‘decouples,’ stocks lose $3.5T amid Trump tariff war and Fed warning of ‘higher inflation’

Further dampening sentiment, on April 4, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.

Powell warned that inflation progress remains uneven, signaling a prolonged high-rate environment that may add more pressure to Bitcoin’s upside momentum.

Nonetheless, most bond traders see three consecutive rate cuts until the Fed’s September meeting, according to CME data.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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MetaMask to launch self-custody crypto card with Mastercard

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Wallet provider MetaMask is launching a crypto payments card that will allow users to spend self-custodied funds, offering crypto holders additional ways to use their tokens.

The new card is backed by Mastercard and is being developed in partnership with CompoSecure and Baanx, according to the company. The product uses smart contracts to execute the IRL (In Real Life) transactions, with a processing speed under five seconds. It operates on the Linea network, a layer-2 scaling solution on Ethereum.

The companies marketed the self-custodied crypto card as an alternative to the potential risks associated with centralized exchanges. In February, the second-largest crypto exchange by volume, Bybit, was hacked for $1.4 billion, an event that sparked widespread consternation in the crypto space.

With the launch of its card, MetaMask is entering a competitive segment of the cryptocurrency market. Major exchanges like Binance, Bybit, Coinbase, and Crypto.com already offer crypto debit cards, some of which feature “crypto-back” rewards that allow users to earn digital assets on their purchases.

MetaMask has struggled lately as interest in and participation in the Ethereum ecosystem have dried up. According to Dune Analytics, the wallet collected just $289,312 in fees for the week of April 14, much less than the $1.3 million in fees collected for the same period a year ago.

Related: Spar supermarket in Switzerland starts accepting Bitcoin payments

Stablecoin, BTC payments growing use cases for crypto

Payments have emerged as one of the fastest-growing use cases for cryptocurrencies in 2025, offering a way to bring real-world utility to digital assets.

Luxury brands like Dorsia have begun accepting various cryptocurrencies as payment, while messaging app Signal is reportedly exploring adopting Bitcoin for peer-to-peer transactions, and a bill in New York has been introduced to legalize the use of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for state payments.

Magazine: Bitcoin payments are being undermined by centralized stablecoins

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Tether still dominates stablecoins despite competition — Nansen

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Despite growing competition from emerging issuers, the stablecoin market remains largely dominated by a few key players. According to data from Web3 research firm Nansen, Tether’s USDt continues to lead among US dollar-pegged stablecoins, even as competition intensifies.

As of April 25, Tether (USDT) has a roughly 66% market share among stablecoins, compared to around 28% for USDC (USDC), Nansen said in the April 25 report. Ethena’s USDe stablecoin ranks a distant third, touting a market share of just over 2%.

Nansen expects Tether’s lead to endure even as rivals such as USDC clock faster growth rates.

“With nearly 3x as many users as Uniswap and 50+% more transactions than the next app, Tether is by and far the largest use case of onchain activity,” Nansen said.

“Despite the potential dispersion in stables, we inevitably believe this is a ‘winner-takes-most’ market dynamic,” the Web3 researcher added. 

Tether has 66% of stablecoin market share. Source: Nansen

Tether is also the most profitable stablecoin issuer, clocking nearly $14 billion in 2024 profits. The company earns revenue by accepting US dollars to mint USDT and subsequently investing those dollars into highly liquid, yield-bearing instruments such as US Treasury bills. 

“Given the growth of USDT and USDC, the users are clearly expressing that they do not necessarily care about the yield as they are forgoing it to Tether and Circle -they simply want access to the most liquid and ‘stable’/ least-likely-to-depeg stablecoin out there,” Nansen said.

USDC has seen faster growth than USDT since November. Source: Nansen

Competitive landscape

Adoption of USDC has accelerated since November, when US President Donald Trump’s election victory ushered in a more favorable US regulatory environment for crypto, Nansen said.

Circle’s US-regulated stablecoin has been “particularly attractive to institutions requiring regulatory clarity,” the report said.

But USDC now faces “intensifying competition as major traditional financial institutions (i.e., Fidelity, PayPal, and banks) enter the market,” Nansen said, adding that stablecoins, including PayPal’s PYUSD and Ripple USD, are “rapidly gaining traction.” 

On April 25, payment processor Stripe tipped plans to create a new stablecoin product of its own after buying stablecoin platform Bridge last year.

Despite its smaller market share, Ethena’s yield-bearing USDe stablecoin remains “competitive on most fronts moving forward,” partly because of integrations across centralized exchanges (CEXs) and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, the report said.

Since launching in 2024, Ethena’s stablecoin has generated an average annualized yield of approximately 19%, according to Ethena’s website.

Magazine: Bitcoin payments are being undermined by centralized stablecoins

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Arizona legislature moves forward with Bitcoin reserve bills

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Lawmakers in the Arizona House of Representatives have voted to pass two bills that could allow the state to adopt a reserve using Bitcoin (BTC) or other cryptocurrencies.

In a third reading on April 28 of the Senate Bill 1025 (SB1025), a proposal to amend Arizona’s statutes to allow for a strategic BTC reserve, 31 members of the Arizona House voted in favor of the bill, with 25 opposed. A similar bill, SB1373, to establish a state-level digital assets reserve, passed with 37 lawmakers in favor and 19 voting nay.

“This bill basically takes the approach that probably 15 other states are considering the same legislation nationwide that allows the treasurer to invest up to 10% into, probably mainly Bitcoin but other things as well,” said State Representative Jeff Weninger on SB1025. “I think this probably would start as a ‘may’ for the foreseeable future, but as things continue to pivot towards Bitcoin and these things, would have that already in place in the future.”

Voting for SB1025 in the Arizona House of Representatives on April 28. Source: Arizona State Legislature

The approvals bring the bills closer than any other state-level initiative in the US to getting a cryptocurrency or Bitcoin strategic reserve signed into law. Similar legislation proposed in New Hampshire passed the state’s House in April and is expected to head to the Senate for a full floor vote soon.

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

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