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Bitcoin traders are overstating the impact of the US-led tariff war on BTC price

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Despite Bitcoin’s 2.2% gains on April 1, BTC (BTC) hasn’t traded above $89,000 since March 7. Even though the recent price weakness is often linked to the escalating US-led global trade war, several factors had already been weighing on investor sentiment long before President Donald Trump announced the tariffs.

Some market participants claimed that Strategy’s $5.25 billion worth of Bitcoin purchases since February is the primary reason BTC has held above the $80,000 support. But, regardless of who has been buying, the reality is that Bitcoin was already showing limited upside before President Trump announced the 10% Chinese import tariffs on Jan. 21.

Gold/USD (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

The S&P 500 index hit an all-time high on Feb. 19, exactly 30 days after the trade war began, while Bitcoin had repeatedly failed to hold above $100,000 for the previous three months. Although the trade war certainly affected investor risk appetite, strong evidence suggests Bitcoin’s price weakness started well before President Trump took office on Jan. 20.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs inflows, strategic Bitcoin reserve expectations and inflationary trends

Another data point that weakens the relation with tariffs is the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which saw $2.75 billion in net inflows during the three weeks following Jan. 21. By Feb. 18, the US had announced plans to impose tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, while the European Union and China had already retaliated. In essence, institutional demand for Bitcoin persisted even as the trade war escalated.

Part of Bitcoin traders’ disappointment after Jan. 21 stems from excessive expectations surrounding President Trump’s campaign promise of a “strategic national Bitcoin stockpile,” mentioned at the Bitcoin Conference in July 2024. As investors grew impatient, their frustration peaked when the actual executive order was issued on March 6.

A key factor behind Bitcoin’s struggle to break above $89,000 is an inflationary trend, reflecting a relatively successful strategy by global central banks. In February, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.5% year-over-year, while the eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.2% in March.

Investors turn more risk-averse following weak job market data

In the second half of 2022, Bitcoin’s gains were driven by inflation soaring above 5%, suggesting that businesses and families turned to cryptocurrency as a hedge against monetary debasement. However, if inflation remains relatively under control in 2025, lower interest rates would favor real estate and stock markets more directly than Bitcoin, as reduced financing costs boost those sectors.

US CPI inflation (left) vs. US 2-year Treasury yield (right). Source: TradingView

Related: Coinbase sees worst quarter since FTX collapse amid industry bloodbath

The weakening job market also dampens traders’ demand for risk-on assets, including Bitcoin. In February, the US Labor Department reported job openings near a four-year low. Similarly, yields on the US 2-year Treasury fell to a six-month low, with investors accepting a modest 3.88% return for the safety of government-backed instruments. This data suggests a rising choice for risk aversion, which is unfavorable for Bitcoin.

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s price weakness stems from investors’ unrealistic expectations of BTC acquisitions by the US Treasury, declining inflation supporting potential interest rate cuts, and a more risk-averse macroeconomic environment as investors turn to short-term government bonds. While the trade war has had negative effects, Bitcoin was already showing signs of weakness before it began.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Michael Saylor hints at Bitcoin purchase as whales stack aggressively

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Whales and large institutions continue their aggressive Bitcoin accumulation, with Strategy hinting at another Bitcoin investment that may be announced on Monday.

Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor hinted at another imminent Bitcoin (BTC) investment on April 27, a week after the firm acquired $555 million worth of Bitcoin at an average price of $84,785 per coin.

“Stay Humble. Stack Sats,” Saylor wrote, spurring investor speculation of the size of the firm’s next Bitcoin investment.

Source: Michael Saylor

“1.4-1.6b range imo,” wrote popular blockchain analyst RunnerXBT in anticipation of Saylor’s announcement, which would make it three times as large as Strategy’s previous investment.

Related: Bitcoin treasury firms driving $200T hyperbitcoinization — Adam Back

Strategy is the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder with over 538,200 Bitcoin worth over $50.5 billion, Bitbo data shows.

The 10 largest Bitcoin holding companies. Source: Bitbo

The firm’s investment philosophy inspired other companies to adopt Bitcoin, including Japanese investment firm Metaplanet, which surpassed 5,000 BTC holdings on April 24, in an effort to lead Bitcoin adoption in Asia.

Related: Trump fought the bond market, the bond market won: Saifedean Ammous

ETFs log $3 billion, and whales aggressively accumulate Bitcoin

Whales, or large Bitcoin investors, are also accumulating Bitcoin under the $100,000 psychological mark.

Whale wallets holding at least $1 million worth of Bitcoin restarted their accumulation at the beginning of April, increasing from 124,000 wallets on April 7 to over 137,600 wallets on April 26, Glassnode data shows.

Bitcoin addresses with over $1 million balance. Source: Glassnode 

The aggressive whale accumulation helped Bitcoin’s recovery to above $94,000, Nexo dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Wallets holding over 10,000 BTC have been aggressively accumulating, with a trend score of 0.90, while smaller investors are also pivoting toward long-term holding.”

“Trump confirmed discussions with China are ongoing, with Beijing offering exemptions on select US imports, suggesting a softening tone. Still, markets are awaiting tangible action before re-rating global risk,” he added.

Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows have also contributed to Bitcoin’s near 12% weekly recovery.

Bitcoin ETF Flow, USD, million. Source: Farside Investors

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $3 billion worth of cumulative net inflows during the past week, marking their second-highest week of investments since launching, Farside Investors data shows.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s odds of June highs, SOL’s $485M outflows, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 2 – 8

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The cost of innovation — Regulations are Web3’s greatest asset

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Opinion by: Hedi Navazan, chief compliance officer at 1inch

Web3 needs a clear regulatory system that addresses innovation bottlenecks and user safety in decentralized finance (DeFi). A one-size-fits-all approach cannot be achieved to regulate DeFi. The industry needs custom, risk-based approaches that balance innovation, security and compliance.

DeFi’s challenges and rules

A common critique is that regulatory scrutiny leads to the death of innovation, tracing this situation back to the Biden administration. In 2022, uncertainty for crypto businesses increased following lawsuits against Coinbase, Binance and OpenSea for alleged violations of securities laws.

Under the US administration, the Securities and Exchange Commission agreed to dismiss the lawsuit against Coinbase, as the agency reversed the crypto stance, hinting at a path toward regulation with clear boundaries.

Many would argue that the same risk is the same rule. Imposing traditional finance requirements on DeFi simply will not work from many aspects but the most technical challenges.

Openness, transparency, immutability, and automation are key parameters of DeFi. Without clear regulations, however, the prevalent issue of “Ponzi-like schemes” can divert focus from effective innovation use cases to conjuring a “deceptive perception” of blockchain technology. 

Guidance and clarity from regulatory bodies can reduce significant risks for retail users.

Policymakers should take time to understand DeFi’s architecture before introducing restrictive measures. DeFi needs risk-based regulatory models that understand its architecture and address illicit activity and consumer protection. 

Self-regulatory frameworks cultivate transparency and security in DeFi

The entire industry highly recommends implementing a self-regulatory framework that ensures continuous innovation while simultaneously ensuring consumer safety and financial transparency. 

Take the example of DeFi platforms that have taken a self-regulatory approach by implementing robust security measures, including transaction monitoring, wallet screening and implementing a blacklist mechanism that restricts a wallet of suspicion with illicit activity. 

Sound security measures would help DeFi projects monitor onchain activity and prevent system misuse. Self-regulation can help DeFi projects operate with greater legitimacy, yet it may not be the only solution.

Clear structure and governance are key

It’s no secret that institutional players are waiting for the regulatory green light. Adding to the list of regulatory frameworks, Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) sets stepping stones for future DeFi regulations that can lead to institutional adoption of DeFi. It provides businesses with regulatory clarity and a framework to operate.

Many crypto projects will struggle and die as a result of higher compliance costs associated with MiCA, which will enforce a more reliable ecosystem by requiring augmented transparency from issuers and quickly attract institutional capital for innovation. Clear regulations will lead to more investments in projects that support investor trust.

Anonymity in crypto is quickly disappearing. Blockchain analytics tools, regulators and companies can monitor suspicious activity while preserving user privacy to some extent. Future adaptations of MiCA regulations can enable compliance-focused DeFi solutions, such as compliant liquidity pools and blockchain-based identity verification.

Regulatory clarity can break barriers to DeFi integration

The banks’ iron gate has been another significant barrier. Compliance officers frequently witness banks erect walls to keep crypto out. Bank supervisors distance companies that are out of compliance, even if it’s indirect scrutiny or fines, slamming doors on crypto projects’ financial operations.

Clear regulations will address this issue and make compliance a facilitator, not a barrier, for DeFi and banking integration. In the future, traditional banks will integrate DeFi. Institutions will not replace banks but will merge DeFi’s efficiencies with TradFi’s structure.

Recent: Hester Peirce calls for SEC rulemaking to ‘bake in’ crypto regulation

The repeal of Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) 121 in January 2025 mitigated accounting burdens for banks to recognize crypto assets held for customers as both assets and liabilities on their balance sheets. The previous laws created hurdles of increased capital reserve requirements and other regulatory challenges.

SAB 122 aims to provide structured solutions from reactive compliance to proactive financial integration — a step toward creating DeFi and banking synergy. Crypto companies must still follow accounting principles and disclosure requirements to protect crypto assets.

Clear regulations can increase the frequency of banking use cases, such as custody, reserve backing, asset tokenization, stablecoin issuance and offering accounts to digital asset businesses.

Building bridges between regulators and innovators in DeFi

Experts pointing out concerns about DeFi’s over-regulation killing innovation can now address them using “regulatory sandboxes.” These dispense startups with a “secure zone” to test their products before committing to full-scale regulatory mandates. For example, startups in the United Kingdom under the Financial Conduct Authority are thriving using this “trial and error” method that has accelerated innovation.

These have enabled businesses to test innovation and business models in a real-world setting under regulator supervision. Sandboxes could be accessible to licensed entities, unregulated startups or companies outside the financial services sector.

Similarly, the European Union’s DLT Pilot Regime advances innovation and competition, encouraging market entry for startups by reducing upfront compliance costs through “gates” that align legal frameworks at each level while upgrading technological innovation.

Clear regulations can cultivate and support innovation through open dialogue between regulators and innovators.

Opinion by: Hedi Navazan, chief compliance officer at 1inch.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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El Salvador adds Bitcoin, but is complying with IMF deal — Director

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El Salvador, the world’s first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, is still acquiring Bitcoin despite comments from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) appearing to claim the opposite.

The treasury of El Salvador acquired 7 Bitcoin (BTC) worth over $650,000 in the seven days leading up to April 27, blockchain data from El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office shows.

When asked about the country’s Bitcoin investments, Rodrigo Valdes, director of the Western Hemisphere Department at the IMF, said that the country continues to comply with its agreement to halt government Bitcoin accumulation.

El Salvador Bitcoin holdings. Source: El Salvador Bitcoin Office

“In terms of El Salvador, let me say that I can confirm that they continue to comply with their commitment of non-accumulation of Bitcoin by the overall fiscal sector, which is the performance criteria that we have,” said Valdes during an April 26 press briefing.

Related: Crypto sentiment recovers, but weekend liquidity risks remain

“But on top of that, I think this is very important for the discussion in El Salvador,” he added. “The program of El Salvador is not about Bitcoin. It’s much more, much deeper in structural reforms, in terms of governance, in terms of transparency.”

In December 2024, El Salvador struck a deal with the IMF for a $1.4 billion loan, which required the government to drop Bitcoin’s status as a legal tender and stop its BTC accumulation.

Related: Serbia’s Prince Filip says Bitcoin is being stifled, expects huge rally

Flexible interpretation leaves room for Bitcoin buys

The IMF’s agreement may still enable room for purchases through non-governmental entities, according to Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain adviser.

“The IMF’s ‘flexible interpretation’ suggests purchases may involve non-public sector entities or reclassified assets, maintaining technical compliance,” Lian told Cointelegraph, adding:

“This alternative approach allows El Salvador to retain its Bitcoin-friendly image while securing critical IMF funding to address unsustainable public debt and limited reserves.”

Lian added that El Salvador’s strategy highlights the growing tension between financial innovation and traditional economic policies.

“El Salvador’s experience offers valuable lessons for nations exploring crypto adoption, emphasizing the need for robust regulatory frameworks and state capacity to navigate international financial pressures,” he added.

Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19

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