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Ethereum prints 4 consecutive red monthly candles, but data points to an ETH/BTC bottom

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Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), registered four consecutive red monthly candles after the altcoin dropped 18.47% in March. The altcoin’s current market structure reflects a sustained bearish trend not seen since the bear market of 2022.

With each monthly close taking place below the previous month’s low, analysts are beginning the debate about whether ETH is approaching a bottom or if there is more downside ahead for the altcoin.

Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio hits new 5-year low

On March 30, the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio dropped to a five-year low of 0.021. The ETH/BTC ratio measures ETH’s value against Bitcoin (BTC), and the current decline underlines Ether’s underperformance against Bitcoin over the past five years.

In fact, the last time the ETH/BTC ratio dipped to 0.021, ETH was valued between $150-$300 in May 2020.

Ethereum/Bitcoin 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Data from the token terminal showed Ethereum’s monthly fees dropped to $22 million in March 20205, its lowest level since June 2020, indicating low network activity and market interest.

Ethereum fees represent the cost users pay for transactions, which is influenced by network demand. When network fees begin to drop, it indicates reduced network utility.

Ethereum fees and price. Source: token terminal

Despite the price action and revenue malaise, Ethereum analyst VentureFounder said that the ETH/BTC bottom could occur over the next few weeks. The analyst hinted at a potential bottom between 0.017 and 0.022, suggesting that the ratio might drop further before a recovery. The analyst said,

“Maybe another lower low RSI and one more push downward lots of similarity with 2018-2019 Fed tightening & QE cycle, expecting the first higher high after May FOMC when Fed ends QT & begin QE.”

Ethereum/Bitcoin analysis by venture founder. Source: X.com

Related: Ethereum price down almost 50% since Eric Trump’s ‘add ETH’ endorsement

Historical odds favor a short-term bottom

Since its inception, ETH has registered three or more consecutive bearish monthly candles on five occasions, and each time, a short-term bottom was the result. The chart below shows that the most back-to-back red months occurred in 2018, with seven, but prices jumped 83% after the correction.

Ethereum monthly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In 2022, after three consecutive bearish months, ETH price consolidated in a range for almost a year, but the bottom was in on the third bearish candle in June 2022. Historically, Ethereum has a 75% probability of having a green month in April.

Based on Ethereum’s past quarterly returns, the altcoin experienced the least number of drawdowns in Q2 compared to other quarters. With the average returns in Q2 as high as 60.59%, the likelihood of positive returns in April.

Ethereum Quarterly returns. Source: CoinGlass

Related: Why is Ethereum (ETH) price up today?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Russian ruble stablecoin: Exec lists 7 ‘Tether replica’ features

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The concept of a Russian ruble stablecoin received special attention at a major local crypto event, the Blockchain Forum in Moscow, with key industry executives reflecting on some of the core features a ruble-backed stablecoin might require.

Sergey Mendeleev, founder of the digital settlement exchange Exved and inactive founder of the sanctioned Garantex exchange, put forward seven key criteria for a potential “replica of Tether” in a keynote at the Blockchain Forum on April 23.

Mendeleev said a potential ruble stablecoin must have untraceable transactions and allow transfers without Know Your Customer (KYC) checks.

However, because one of the criteria also requires the stablecoin to comply with Russian regulations, he expressed skepticism that such a product could emerge soon.

The DAI model praised 

Mendeleev proposed that a potential Russian “Tether replica” must be overcollateralized similarly to the Dai (DAI) stablecoin model, a decentralized algorithmic stablecoin that maintains its one-to-one peg with the US dollar using smart contracts.

“So, any person who buys it will understand that the contract is based on the assets that super-securitize it, not somewhere on some unknown accounts, but free to be checked by simple crypto methods,” he said.

Source: Cointelegraph

Another must-have feature should be excess liquidity on both centralized and decentralized exchanges, Mendeleev said, adding that users must be able to exchange the stablecoin at any time they need.

According to Mendeleev, a viable ruble-pegged stablecoin also needs to offer non-KYC transactions, so users are not required to pass their data to start using it.

“The Russian ruble stablecoin should have the opportunity where people use it without disclosing their data,” he stated.

Related: Russia’s central bank, finance ministry to launch crypto exchange

In the meantime, users should be able to earn interest on holding the stablecoin, Mendelev continued, adding that offering this feature is available via smart contracts.

Russia opts for centralization

Mendeleev also suggested that a potential Russian version of Tether’s USDt (USDT) would need to feature untraceable and cheap transactions, while its smart contracts should not enable blocks or freezes.

The final criterion is that a potential ruble stablecoin would have to be regulated in accordance with the Russian legislation, which currently doesn’t look promising, according to Mendeleev.

Sergey Mendeleev at the Blockchain Forum in Moscow. Source: Bits.Media

“Once we put these seven points together […] then it would be a real alternative, which would help us at least compete with the solutions that are currently on the market,” he stated at the conference, adding:

“Unfortunately, from the point of view of regulation, we are currently going in the absolutely opposite direction […] We are going in the direction of absolute centralization, not in the direction of liberalization of laws, but consolidation of prohibitions.”

Possible solutions

While the regulatory side is not looking good, a potential Russian version of USDT is technically feasible, Mendeleev told Cointelegraph.

“Except for anonymous transactions, everything is easy to implement and has already been deployed by several projects, but it’s just not unified in one project yet,” he said.

The crypto advocate specifically referred to interesting opportunities by projects like the ruble-pegged A7A5 stablecoin, unblockable contracts at DAI, and others.

Related: Russian crypto exchange Mosca raided amid cash-to-crypto ban talks

Regulation is necessary but not enough, Mendeleev said, adding that the most difficult part is the trust of users who must see the ruble stablecoin as a viable alternative to major alternatives like USDT.

Recent reports suggest that the deputy head of Russia’s Finance Ministry’s financial policy department urged the government to develop ruble stablecoins.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Russia has continued to progress its central bank digital currency project, the digital ruble. According to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, the digital ruble is scheduled to be rolled out for commercial banks in the second half of 2025.

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Abu Dhabi institutional giants team up for dirham stablecoin

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A trio of major Abu Dhabi institutions, including the Emirate’s sovereign wealth fund, have teamed up to launch a new dirham-pegged stablecoin.

Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund ADQ, the United Arab Emirates’ largest bank, First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), and the massive conglomerate the International Holding Company, have partnered to launch the stablecoin, pending regulatory approval, three companies said on April 28.

The trio said the stablecoin would be regulated by the UAE’s central bank and backed by the country’s currency, the dirham. It will also support use cases such as machine-to-machine and artificial intelligence.

Source: IHC

The goal is to place the UAE at the “forefront of global blockchain innovation,” while also strengthening the digital infrastructure, according to ADQ.

If it gets the nod from regulators, the new stablecoin will operate on the ADI blockchain, created by the ADI Foundation, a nonprofit organization dedicated to helping established financial systems and governments advance and adopt blockchain technology.

Established in 2018, ADQ is a sovereign wealth fund focused on critical infrastructure and global supply chains. Meanwhile, IHC is one of the UAE’s largest investment firms and conglomerates with a market value of over $243 billion that has ties to the ruling family of Abu Dhabi, the country’s capital.

FAB is the largest bank in the UAE, formed in 2017 through a merger between First Gulf Bank and National Bank of Abu Dhabi.

Countries line up to challenge US dollar stablecoins

Other countries have also announced plans to launch stablecoins backed by currencies other than the US dollar.

The market cap of US dollar-denominated stablecoins crossed $230 billion in April, an increase of 54% since last year, with Tether (USDT) and USDC (USDC) dominating 90% of the market.

Related: UAE stablecoin issuer gets nod from central bank

A Russian finance ministry official has floated a plan for the country to develop its own stablecoin after a freeze on wallets linked to the sanctioned Russian exchange Garantex by US authorities and stablecoin issuer Tether. 

However, an April 23 report from investment banking giant Citigroup predicts the stablecoin supply will remain US dollar-denominated, with non-US countries promoting national or central bank digital currency.

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Samourai Wallet, feds ask for time to mull dropping crypto mixer case

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US federal prosecutors and the co-founders of the crypto mixer Samourai Wallet have asked a court for more time to consider potentially dismissing the case after the Justice Department rolled back its crypto enforcement.

Lawyers for Samourai Wallet CEO Keonne Rodriguez and chief technology officer William Hill said in an April 28 letter to Manhattan federal judge Richard Berman that they jointly requested with the government “for a continuance of the pretrial motions schedule by 16 days.”

The Samourai executives’ lawyers said on April 10 that they wrote to Acting Manhattan US Attorney Jay Clayton to request the dismissal of the case after an April 7 memo from Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche shuttered the Justice Department’s crypto team.

“On April 24, 2025, defense counsel met with the prosecutors and their supervisors in person at the U.S. Attorney’s Office to discuss this request,” the lawyers said.

“The Defendants believe that a continuance of the pretrial motions schedule is warranted to permit Defendants to avoid the significant expense of preparing their motions while the Government determines its position,” the letter stated.

It added that prosecutors agreed to adjourn “without expressing any views on the merits.”

Samourai Wallet’s Rodriguez and Hill were charged with conspiracy to commit money laundering and operating an unlicensed money transmitting business in April 2024, to which they both pleaded not guilty.

Blanche’s memo said, “The Department of Justice is not a digital assets regulator,” and it would abandon enforcement and investigations besides those which “focus on prosecuting individuals who victimize digital asset investors, or those who use digital assets in furtherance of criminal offenses.”

An excerpt of the letter to Judge Berman. Source: PACER

Currently, motions in the Samourai executives’ case are due May 13, responses are due on June 10, and replies on June 24. The letter proposes to put this back to May 29 for motions, June 26 for responses, and July 10 for replies.

The continuance would not affect the trial date, which is slated for early November. 

Quashing crypto litigation list lengthens 

The move is the latest in a long list of court actions to have prosecutors’ crypto cases quashed under the Trump administration’s favorable stance toward the industry. 

Related: SEC says it won’t re-file fraud case against Hex’s Richard Heart 

On April 9, SafeMoon CEO Braden John Karony, who is charged with wire fraud and money laundering, cited Blanche’s directive in a bid to get his case dismissed. 

Meanwhile, on April 28, the DeFi Education Fund petitioned the White House to drop charges against Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm and requested immediate action to “discontinue the Biden-era Department of Justice’s lawless campaign to criminalize open-source software development.” 

Magazine: Bitcoin $100K hopes on ice, SBF’s mysterious prison move: Hodler’s Digest

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