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Worst Q1 for BTC price since 2018: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

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Bitcoin (BTC) limps into the end of Q1 on 13% losses as fresh macroeconomic volatility looms.

BTC price action risks a fresh dip below $80,000 as new US trade tariffs weigh on risk-asset sentiment.

Crypto traders’ tariff woes focus on April 2, dubbed  “Liberation Day” by US President Donald Trump, while gold heads higher.

Despite the doom and gloom, Bitcoin has had a relatively mild March, while Q1 threatens to be its worst in seven years.

Profitability currently points the way to a bull market drawdown with no realistic bottom in sight.

The Coinbase Premium puts up a fight amid the price dip, suggesting that panic sellers have already exited.

BTC price: “Bearish engulfing” sets the tone

Bitcoin traders are on edge this week as US trade tariffs follow the monthly and quarterly candle closes.

A recipe for risk-asset volatility has many market participants bracing for the worst as BTC price action edges increasingly close to $80,000.

The lowest levels in two weeks at about $81,200 accompanied the March 30 weekly close, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed.

“In LTF, the first noticeable thing is this new wick to the downside,” trader CrypNuevo responded on X. 

“The odds are on the side of it getting filled quite soon.”

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Fellow trading account HTL-NL noted a “bearish engulfing” candle on the weekly chart.

“Let’s see if it plays out,” he told X followers.

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: HTL-NL/X

The picture on longer timeframes, per trading resource Barchart, is no better unless the risk-asset landscape improves.

Bitcoin and US stocks are headed for so-called “death crosses,” it warned prior to the Wall Street open, as short-term losses catch up to the broader uptrend.

“What if price action is red heading into those Death Crosses with the actual Crosses marking the bottom like we’ve seen many times before?” Barchart queried.

BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

A look at exchange order book data from monitoring resource CoinGlass meanwhile shows bid and ask liquidity clustered tightly around price. 

Continuing, CrypNuevo paid particular attention to the 50-day and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMAs).

“Seeing some compression between the 1W50EMA and 1D50EMA which always leads to an aggressive move,” he observed. 

“It might take a bit more time based on previous cases. It’s also quite common seeing multiple and consecutives retests of this bull market support.”

BTC/USD 1-day chart with 50-day, 50-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

D-Day for US tariffs precedes jobs data onslaught

US employment data and Federal Reserve officials are among the key events on the radar for risk-asset traders this week.

Job openings, jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls are all due, with the first round of numbers released on April 2.

This may be overshadowed by the start of new US trade tariffs set to begin on the same day. As Cointelegraph continues to report, crypto remains highly sensitive to tariff news, with Trump giving mixed messages as to which measures will ultimately come into force.

In a dedicated X thread on the topic, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that tariffs may impact about $1.5 trillion worth of US imports by the end of the month.

“President Trump has been discussing this Wednesday, April 2nd, for weeks. This is a day that he has named ‘Liberation Day’ where widespread new tariffs are coming,” it wrote. 

“We believe April 2nd will be the biggest escalation of the trade war to date. Markets are in for a wild week.”

US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Kobeissi pointed to unusually high levels of market uncertainty, as represented by the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index.

With many a surprise to come, market commentators are not the only ones in “wait and see” mode.

April 4 will see Fed Chair Powell take to the stage with a speech on the economic outlook at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference in Arlington, Virginia.

Earlier this month, Powell said that while it was not easy to pin inflation pressures on tariffs, he was in no hurry to lower interest rates — the key move awaited by risk-asset traders.

The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool continue to favor the Fed’s June meeting as the date of the next rate cut.

Fed target rate probabilities for June 18 FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Bitcoin rounds off a limp Q1

As both the monthly and quarterly candles prepare to close, Bitcoin is looking at a distinctly uninspiring mid-term performance.

Data from CoinGlass shows BTC/USD down 12.7% in Q1 at the time of writing, making it the worst first quarter of the year since 2018.

BTC/USD quarterly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Conditions have worsened for hodlers thanks to gold outperforming as a safe-haven bet, hitting repeated all-time highs while BTC/USD fell 30% from its January peak.

That bull market correction, however, remains fairly standard in a historical perspective. Data from onchain analytics firm Glassnode confirms that the maximum drawdown in previous bull markets passed 60%.

“This cycle continues to be the least volatile of all,” it acknowledged in February.

Bitcoin bull market drawdowns. Source: Glassnode

Others agree that despite the frustrating lack of further price upside, Bitcoin has weathered the macroeconomic storm fairly well.

“Overall quarter not horrible,” trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized about the CoinGlass figures this weekend.

On a monthly basis, the picture remains far from the most bearish BTC price scenarios — 2.7% losses since March 1, making for a fairly average third month of the year.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

MVRV Ratio lacks “definitive bottom signal”

A key Bitcoin price metric continues to give off warning signals this week as the market flushes out “overheated” conditions.

The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, which compares the market cap to realized cap to determine short-term and long-term profitability, is trending back toward its long-term average.

In early March, the tool printed a so-called “death cross” — its short-term moving average crossed below a long-term equivalent, in keeping with the profit drawdown sparked by Bitcoin’s descent below $80,000.

“Much like in previous cycles, this cross was followed by a price decline after Bitcoin hit a local peak, reinforcing the MVRV’s effectiveness as a market sentiment indicator,” Yonsei Dent, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on March 30.

“With the MVRV now converging toward its long-term historical average, it appears the market has exited the overheated zone. However, no definitive bottom signal has emerged yet.” 

Bitcoin MVRV momentum chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Dent suggested that while current behavior mimics past BTC price cycles, market participants “should remain cautious of further downside risk.”

Last month, analysis predicted that Bitcoin still has room for fresh all-time highs on longer timeframes, based on MVRV ratio data.

Coinbase traders keep the faith

The return of the Coinbase Premium has been painfully slow this quarter as episodes of panic selling characterized recent market behavior.

Related: $65K Bitcoin price targets pile up as ‘Spoofy the Whale’ buys the dip

The Premium, which is the difference in spot price between the Coinbase BTC/USD and Binance BTC/USDT pairs, currently hovers around neutral.

While unremarkable in and of itself, the metric’s resilience to ongoing BTC price pressure caught the eye of CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Sunmoon.

“Panic selling is decreasing,” he concluded in another Quicktake post this weekend.

A positive Premium reflects increasing US investor confidence in adding BTC exposure and is traditionally a key ingredient in sustainable Bitcoin bull markets.

Meanwhile, its resistance to the downside in the face of falling prices leads Sunmoon to suspect a “possible trend reversal.”

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium. Source: CryptoQuant

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin: ‘Privacy is freedom’

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Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said privacy should be a top priority for developers, warning that assumptions about transparency and good intentions in global politics are overly optimistic.

In an April 14 blog post, Buterin argued that privacy is essential to maintain individual freedom and protect against the growing power of governments and corporations. He criticized the idea that increased transparency is inherently beneficial, saying it relies on assumptions about human nature that are no longer valid.

“These assumptions include believing that global political leadership is generally well-intentioned and sane, and that social culture continues to progress in a positive direction,” Buterin wrote. “Both are proving to be increasingly untrue.”

Buterin claimed there was “no single major country for which the first assumption is broadly agreed to be true.” Furthermore, he wrote that cultural tolerance is “rapidly regressing,” which is reportedly demonstrable by an X post search for “bullying is good.”

Buterin’s personal privacy issues

Buterin said that he found his lack of privacy unsettling at times. He added:

“Every single action I take outside has some nonzero chance of unexpectedly becoming a public media story.”

Covertly taken photos of Vitalik Buterin. Source: Vitalik.eth

While this may appear as a suggestion that privacy is an advantage only for those who venture outside the social norms, he highlighted that “you never know when you will become one of them.”

Buterin only expects the need for privacy to increase as technology develops further, with brain-computer interfaces potentially allowing automated systems to peer directly into our brains. Another issue is automated price gouging, with companies charging individuals as much as they expect them to be able to pay.

Related: Messaging apps are spying on you — Here’s how to stay safe in 2025

There is no privacy with government backdoors

Buterin also argued strongly against the idea of adding government backdoors to systems designed to protect privacy. He said such positions are common but inherently unstable.

He highlighted how, in the case of Know Your Customer data, “it’s not just the government, it’s also all kinds of corporate entities, of varying levels of quality” that can access private data. Instead, the information is handled and held by payment processors, banks, and other intermediaries.

Similarly, telecommunication companies can locate their users and have been found to illegally sell this data. Buterin also raised concerns that individuals with access will always be incentivized to abuse it, and data banks can always be hacked. Lastly, a trustworthy government can change and become untrustworthy in the future, inheriting all the sensitive data. He concluded:

“From the perspective of an individual, if data is taken from them, they have no way to tell if and how it will be abused in the future. By far the safest approach to handling large-scale data is to centrally collect as little of it as possible in the first place.“

Related: Privacy will unlock blockchain’s business potential

Authorities have more data than ever

Buterin raised the issue of governments being able to access anything with a warrant “because that‘s the way that things have always worked.” He noted that this point of view fails to consider that historically, the amount of data available for obtaining through a warrant was far lower.

He said the traditionally available data would still be available even “if the strongest proposed forms of internet privacy were universally adopted.” He wrote that “in the 19ᵗʰ century, the average conversation happened once, via voice, and was never recorded by anyone.”

Buterin’s proposed solutions

Buterin suggested solutions based mainly on zero-knowledge proofs (ZK-proofs) because they allow for “fine-grained control of who can see what information.” ZK-proofs are cryptographic protocols that allow one party to prove a statement is true without revealing any additional information.

One such system is a ZK-proof-based proof of personhood that proves you are unique without revealing who you are. These systems rely on documents like passports or biometric data paired with decentralized systems.

Another solution suggested is the recently launched privacy pools, which allow for regulatory-compliant Ether (ETH) anonymization. Buterin also cited on-device anti-fraud scanning, checking incoming messages and identifying potential misinformation and scams.

These systems are proof of provenance services for physical items using a combination of blockchain and ZK-proof technology. They track various properties of an item throughout its manufacturing cycle, ensuring the user of its authenticity.

The post follows Buterin’s recent privacy roadmap for Ethereum. In it, he highlighted the short-term changes to the base protocol and ecosystem needed to ensure better user privacy.

Magazine: Cypherpunk AI: Guide to uncensored, unbiased, anonymous AI in 2025

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Kraken rolls out ETF and stock access for US crypto traders

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Kraken is expanding beyond cryptocurrencies by offering US-listed stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in a move aimed at appealing to more traditional investors.

Kraken, the world’s 13th largest centralized cryptocurrency exchange by volume, announced the launch of 11,000 US-listed stocks and ETFs with commission-free trading in an effort to bring “equities and digital assets together” under one trading platform.

As of April 14, US-based users in New Jersey, Connecticut, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Iowa, Rhode Island, Kentucky, Alabama and the District of Columbia can access these stocks and ETFs within their Kraken account, the company announced.

Kraken expands to stocks and ETFs. Source: Kraken

The exchange plans to continue expanding access to clients in other US states, marking the first part of a “phased national rollout.”

Related: Trump’s tariff escalation exposes ‘deeper fractures’ in global financial system

Both traditional and cryptocurrency investor sentiment took a significant hit after US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal import tariff announcement on April 2.

Kraken’s traditional stock offering comes over a week after the S&P 500 posted a $5-trillion loss in market capitalization over two days, marking its largest drop on record, surpassing a $3.3-trillion decline in March 2020 after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Related: 70% chance of crypto bottoming before June amid trade fears: Nansen

Crypto is “becoming the backbone for trading”

Kraken’s expansion into traditional investment products signals the growing utility of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology, according to Arjun Sethi, co-CEO of Kraken.

“Crypto isn’t just evolving, it’s becoming the backbone for trading across asset classes, such as equities, commodities and currencies. As demand for 24/7 global access grows, clients want a seamless, all-in-one trading experience.” 

Sethi added that expanding into traditional equities is a “natural step” toward the tokenization of real-world assets and the “borderless” future of trading built on blockchain rails.

Kraken also plans to expand its stock trading offering to other large international markets, including the United Kingdom, Europe and Australia.

Magazine: Illegal arcade disguised as … a fake Bitcoin mine? Soldier scams in China: Asia Express

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Bybit integrates Avalon through CeFi to DeFi bridge for Bitcoin yield

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Crypto exchange Bybit has partnered with lending protocol Avalon to offer Bitcoin yield to its users.

According to an April 14 Avalon Labs X announcement, the centralized decentralized finance (CeDeFi) protocol will now be a part of the exchange’s yield product, Bybit Earn. Avalon said it will allow the platform’s users to earn yield from Bitcoin (BTC) by arbitrating on its fixed-rate institutional borrowing layer.

Source: Avalon Labs

Avalon Labs announced in March that it raised a minimum of $2 billion worth of credit with possible scaling as the need arises. The product allows institutional borrowers to access USDt (USDT) liquidity without liquidating their Bitcoin holdings at a fixed 8% borrowing cost.

In February, Avalon Labs also announced it was considering issuing a Bitcoin-backed debt-focused public fund. Venus Li, co-founder of Avalon Labs, said at the time that the fund could be issued by leveraging a Regulation A US securities exception:

“We have spent years researching how Regulation A has been applied in traditional finance and whether it could be a viable path for crypto companies. While successful precedents in the crypto industry are limited, our analysis of previous SEC-approved cases suggests a viable path forward.”

Related: Bitcoin yield opportunities are booming — Here’s what to watch for

Centralized and decentralized finance unite

Avalon Labs’ product is a CeDeFi protocol, somewhere between decentralized finance (DeFi) and centralized finance (CeFi). This product category — with increased control over capital flows and access — often has advantages in meeting regulatory requirements for integrating with CeFi platforms.

The Bybit Earn integration leverages Avalon Labs’ 1:1 Bitcoin-pegged token FBTC, developed by DeFi protocol Mantle and Bitcoin-centric crypto developer Antalpha Prime. These tokens are then bridged onto Ethereum and other blockchains.

Related: Ethena Labs, Securitize launch blockchain for DeFi and tokenized assets

A multi-protocol system

Avalon Labs’ platform accepts FBTC as collateral and lends it at fixed rates. The borrowed USDt stablecoin is then deployed to high-yield strategies through the Ethena Labs synthetic dollar protocol. The assets employed in those strategies include Ethena USD (USDe) and Ethena Staked USD (sUSDE). The announcement claims:

“Returns are stable, secure, and passed back to Bybit Earn users—making Bitcoin a productive asset while maintaining simplicity and risk control.“

In other words, Avalon Labs serves as a bridge between Bybit and the yield-earning potential of Ethena Labs’ protocol. Avalon Labs describes this as a “CeFi to DeFi” bridge.

The news follows Ethena raising $100 million in late February to deploy a new blockchain and launch a token focused on traditional finance. In January, Ethena also announced plans to roll out iUSDe, a product identical to USDe but designed for regulated financial institutions.

Bybit did not respond to Cointelegraph’s inquiries by publication.

Magazine: The real risks to Ethena’s stablecoin model (are not the ones you think)

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