Coin Market

Bitcoin bottom ‘likely’ at $80K, opening door for TON, CRO, MNT and RENDER to rally

Published

6 days ago

March 30, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are trying to start a recovery but selling at higher levels continues to disarm each attack of the range highs. Veteran trader Peter Brandt said in a post on X that Bitcoin has broken down from a bear wedge pattern, giving it a target objective of $65,635.

The current macroeconomic environment and the fears of a prolonged trade war have created a 40% possibility of a recession in 2025, according to Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin. Puckrin said that a recession and the current macroeconomic uncertainty could put pressure on risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

However, not everyone is bearish on Bitcoin in the near term. Analyst Stockmoney Lizards said in a post on X that Bitcoin’s local bottom could be between $82,000 and $80,000. The analyst anticipates Bitcoin to make a reversal next week.

If Bitcoin starts a recovery, select altcoins are likely to move higher. Let’s look at the charts of the top cryptocurrencies that are showing a bullish setup.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin’s failure to rise above the resistance line may have tempted selling by traders. The bears will try to pull the price toward the critical $80,000 support.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day exponential moving average ($85,253) is flattish, and the relative strength index (RSI) is just below the midpoint, giving a slight advantage to the bears. If the $80,000 support cracks, the BTC/USDT pair could plunge to $76,606.

On the other hand, if the price turns up from the current level or $80,000, it improves the prospects of a rally above the resistance line. If that happens, it suggests an end of the corrective phase. The pair could rally to $95,000 and then to $100,000.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-EMA has turned down on the 4-hour chart, and the RSI is in the negative territory, signaling that bears are in control. If the price turns down from the current level, the pair could slide to $80,000 and then to $78,000.

Buyers will have to drive and maintain the price above the 20-EMA to signal strength. The pair may then rise to the resistance line, which is a critical resistance to watch out for. The bullish momentum is expected to begin on a break above $89,000.

Toncoin price analysis

Toncoin (TON) bounced off the moving averages on March 30, indicating a positive sentiment.

TON/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($3.58) and the RSI in the positive zone indicate advantage to buyers. The bulls will try to strengthen their position by pushing the price above $4.14. If they can pull it off, the TON/USDT pair may start a new upmove to $5 and, after that, to $5.65.

Sellers will have to yank the price below the $3.3 support to seize control. Such a move signals that bears remain sellers on rallies. The pair could plummet to $2.81 and eventually to $2.64.

TON/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The pair turned up from the uptrend line, indicating that the bulls are viewing the dips as a buying opportunity. The pair could reach the overhead resistance of $4.14, where the bears are expected to step in. However, if buyers pierce the resistance, the pair could start the next leg of the upmove toward $5.

The bears will be back in the driver’s seat if they sink and sustain the price below the uptrend line. The pair may then drop to $3.28.

Cronos price analysis

Cronos (CRO) broke out of the moving averages on March 24, signaling that the downtrend could have ended.

CRO/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The CRO/USDT pair is facing selling near $0.12, but a positive sign in favor of the bulls is that they have not allowed the price to sustain below the $0.10 support. This suggests that buyers are trying to form a higher low. If the bulls shove the price above $0.12, the pair could rally toward $0.14.

Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will try to sink the price below the moving averages and trap the aggressive bulls.

CRO/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The pair has been range-bound between $0.10 and $0.12, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears. The 20-EMA is sloping up gradually, and the RSI is just above the midpoint, giving a slight edge to the bulls. A break and close above $0.11 increases the likelihood of a rally above $0.12.

Sellers will be back in the driver’s seat if they sink and maintain the price below the 50-SMA. That could pull the pair down to $0.08.

Mantle price analysis

Mantle (MNT) failed to rise above the 50-day SMA ($0.84) in the past few days, but a positive sign is that the bulls are trying to hold the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.80).

MNT/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA with strength, it will suggest a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That improves the prospects of a break above the 50-day SMA. If that happens, the MNT/USDT pair could ascend to $0.94 and later to $1.06.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price continues lower and breaks below $0.77, it will tilt the short-term advantage in favor of the bears. The pair may then tumble to $0.72, delaying the start of the up move.

MNT/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 4-hour chart is facing stiff resistance at $0.85. The pair may dip to $0.77, which is a critical support to watch out for. If the price rebounds off $0.77, it will signal that the bulls are buying on dips. That could keep the pair stuck between $0.77 and $0.85 for some time. A break and close above $0.85 could push the pair toward $0.95.

Sellers will have to pull the price below $0.77 to gain the upper hand. The pair could then drop toward $0.69.

Render price analysis

Render (RNDR) has been in a strong downtrend for several weeks, but the bulls pushed the price above the 50-day SMA ($3.77) on March 25, signaling demand at lower levels.

RNDR/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bears have pulled the price to the 20-day EMA ($3.57), which is an important level to watch out for. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA with force, the bulls will try to propel the RNDR/USDT pair to $5 and later to $6.20.

This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price continues lower and closes below $3.05. That signals aggressive selling at higher levels. The pair may slump to $2.83 and subsequently to $2.52.

RNDR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-EMA has turned down, and the RSI is in the negative territory on the 4-hour chart, indicating an advantage to sellers. A break and close below the uptrend line will further strengthen the bears, pulling the pair to $3.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the moving averages. That could open the doors for a rally to $4. The up move could accelerate after the pair closes above $4.20, completing a bullish head-and-shoulders pattern.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Coin Market

Wall Street’s one-day loss tops the entire crypto market cap

Published

2 hours ago

April 5, 2025

The United States stock market lost more in value over the April 4 trading day than the entire cryptocurrency market is worth, as fears over US President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to ramp up.

On April 4, the US stock market lost $3.25 trillion — around $570 billion more than the entire crypto market’s $2.68 trillion valuation at the time of publication.

Nasdaq 100 is now “in a bear market”

Among the Magnificent-7 stocks, Tesla (TSLA) led the losses on the day with a 10.42% drop, followed by Nvidia (NVDA) down 7.36% and Apple (AAPL) falling 7.29%, according to TradingView data.

The significant decline across the board signals that the Nasdaq 100 is now “in a bear market” after falling 6% across the trading day, trading resource account The Kobeissi Letter said in an April 4 X post. This is the largest daily decline since March 16, 2020.

“US stocks have now erased a massive -$11 TRILLION since February 19 with recession odds ABOVE 60%,” it added. The Kobessi Letter said Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement was “historic” and if the tariffs continue, a recession will be “impossible to avoid.”

Source: Anthony Scaramucci

On April 2, Trump signed an executive order establishing reciprocal tariffs on trading partners and a 10% baseline tariff on all imports from all countries.

Trump said the reciprocal tariffs will be roughly half the rate US trading partners impose on American goods.

Meanwhile, the crypto industry has pointed out that while the stock market continues to decline, Bitcoin (BTC) remains stronger than most expected.

Crypto trader Plan Markus pointed out in an April 4 X post that while the entire stock market “is tanking,” Bitcoin is holding.

Source: Jeff Dorman

Even some crypto skeptics have pointed out the contrast between Bitcoin’s performance and the US stock market during the recent period of macro uncertainty.

Stock market commentator Dividend Hero told his 203,200 X followers that he has “hated on Bitcoin in the past, but seeing it not tank while the stock market does is very interesting to me.”

Meanwhile, technical trader Urkel said Bitcoin “doesn’t appear to care one bit about tariff wars and markets tanking.” Bitcoin is trading at $83,749 at the time of publication, down 0.16% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple a ‘bad actor’ with no crypto legal precedent set

Coin Market

SEC paints 'a distorted picture' of USD-stablecoin market — Crenshaw

Published

5 hours ago

April 5, 2025

US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner and vocal crypto critic Caroline Crenshaw has accused the US regulator of downplaying risks and misrepresenting the US stablecoin market in its newly published guidelines.

However, many in the crypto industry see the SEC’s decision as a step in the right direction.

In an April 4 statement, Crenshaw, who is widely known for opposing the spot Bitcoin ETFs, said that the SEC’s statement on stablecoins contained “legal and factual errors that paint a distorted picture of the USD-stablecoin market that drastically understates its risks.”

Crenshaw disagrees, crypto industry applauds

Under the new SEC guidelines, stablecoins that meet certain criteria are now considered “non-securities” and are exempt from transaction reporting requirements.

Crenshaw disputed the accuracy of the analysis made by the SEC in arriving at that decision. She pushed back on the SEC for reiterating issuer actions “that supposedly stabilize price, ensure redeemability, and otherwise reduce risk.”

Source: David Sacks

The SEC said that “albeit briefly, that some USD-stablecoins are available to retail purchasers only through an intermediary and not directly from the issuer.”

Crenshaw argued this was misleading. She said:

“It is the general rule, not the exception, that these coins are available to the retail public only through intermediaries who sell them on the secondary market, such as crypto trading platforms.”

“Over 90% of USD-stablecoins in circulation are distributed in this way,” Crenshaw added.

Meanwhile, many in the crypto industry expressed optimism over the decision.

Token Metrics founder Ian Ballina said it “feels like a clear step in focusing on what really matters in the crypto space.”

Crypto industry says positive step, just late

Vemanti CEO Tan Tran said he wished the SEC reached this point three years ago, while Midnight Network’s head of partnerships Ian Kane said it “feels like progress for crypto folks trying to play by the rules.”

Crenshaw said it is “also grossly inaccurate” for the SEC to reassure users that an issuer can handle unlimited redemptions just because its reserves match or exceed the value of the supply.

“The issuer’s overall financial health and solvency cannot be judged by the value of its reserve, which tells us nothing about its liabilities, risk from proprietary financial activities, and so forth,” Crenshaw said.

She explained that stablecoins always carry some risk, particularly during market downturns.

It comes only weeks after stablecoin issuer Tether was reportedly engaging with a Big Four accounting firm to audit its assets reserve and verify that its USDT stablecoin is backed at a 1:1 ratio.

On March 22, Cointelegraph reported that Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said the audit process would be more straightforward under pro-crypto US President Donald Trump.

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple a ‘bad actor’ with no crypto legal precedent set

Coin Market

Bitcoin traders prepare for rally to $100K as ‘decoupling’ and ‘gold leads BTC’ trend takes shape

Published

6 hours ago

April 5, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) price could head back toward the $100,000 level quicker than investors expected if the early signs of its decoupling from the US stock market and gold continue.

Source: Cory Bates / X

The “gold leads, Bitcoin follows” relationship is starting

Bitcoin has shrugged off the market jitters caused by US President Donald Trump’s April 2 global tariff announcement.

While BTC initially dropped over 3% to around $82,500, it eventually rebounded by roughly 4.5% to cross $84,700. In contrast, the S&P 500 plunged 10.65% this week, and gold—after hitting a record $3,167 on April 3—has slipped 4.8%.

BTC/USD vs. gold and S&P 500 daily performance chart. Source: TradingView

The fresh divergence is fueling the “gold-leads-Bitcoin narrative,” taking cues from price trends from late 2018 through mid-2019 to predict a strong price recovery toward $100,000.

Gold began a steady ascent, gaining nearly 15% by mid-2019, while Bitcoin remained largely flat. Bitcoin’s breakout followed shortly after, rallying over 170% in early 2019 and then surging another 344% by late 2020.

BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

“A reclaim of $100k would imply a handoff from gold to BTC,” said market analyst MacroScope, adding:

“As in previous cycles, this would open the door to a new period of huge outperformance by BTC over gold and other assets.

The outlook aligned with Alpine Fox founder Mike Alfred, who shared an analysis from March 14, wherein he anticipated Bitcoin to grow 10 times or more than gold based on previous instances.

Source: Mike Alfred / X

Bitcoin-to-gold ratio warns of a bull trap

Bitcoin may be eyeing a drop toward $65,000, based on a bearish fractal playing out in the Bitcoin-to-gold (BTC/XAU) ratio.

The BTC/XAU ratio is flashing a familiar pattern that traders last saw in 2021. The breakdown followed a second major support test at the 50-2W exponential moving average.

BTC/XAU ratio two-week chart. Source: TradingView

BTC/XAU is now repeating this fractal and once again testing the red 50-EMA as support.

In the previous cycle, Bitcoin consolidated around the same EMA level before breaking decisively lower, eventually finding support at the 200-2W EMA (the blue wave). If history repeats, BTC/XAU could be on track for a deeper correction, especially if macro conditions worsen.

Interestingly, these breakdown cycles have coincided with a drop in Bitcoin’s value in dollar terms, as shown below.

BTC/USD 2W price chart. Source: TradingView

Should the fractal repeat, Bitcoin’s initial downside target could be its 50-2W EMA around the $65,000 level, with additional selloffs suggesting declines below $20,000, aligning with the 200-2W EMA.

A bounce from BTC/XAU’s 50-2W EMA, on the other hand, may invalidate the bearish fractal.

US recession would squash Bitcoin’s bullish outlook

From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin’s price outlook appears skewed to the downside.

Investors are concerned that President Donald Trump’s global tariff war could spiral into a full-blown trade war and trigger a US recession. Risk assets like Bitcoin tend to underperform during economic contractions.

Further dampening sentiment, on April 4, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.

Powell warned that inflation progress remains uneven, signaling a prolonged high-rate environment that may add more pressure to Bitcoin’s upside momentum.

Nonetheless, most bond traders see three consecutive rate cuts until the Fed’s September meeting, according to CME data.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.