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Market is underestimating how quickly Bitcoin will hit new ATH: Analyst

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Bitcoin will break past its $109,000 all-time high sooner than expected despite recent volatile US macroeconomic conditions, according to a crypto analyst. 

“The market may be underestimating how quickly Bitcoin could surge – potentially hitting new all-time highs before Q2 is out,” Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts told Cointelegraph. 

He said this forecast stands regardless of whether or not there is more clarity on US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and potential recession concerns.

Trump’s tariffs blamed for Bitcoin’s recent downtrend

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $100,000 on Feb. 2, with many market participants blaming the downturn on Trump’s newly imposed tariffs and uncertainty over US interest rates. 

Coutts based his rosy rebound prediction on easing financial conditions, a weakening US dollar and the People’s Bank of China ramping up liquidity since early 2025.

“Financial conditions have eased dramatically this month, highlighted by the US dollar’s third-largest three-day decline since 2015 and significant drops in rates and Treasury bond volatility,” he said.

“Liquidity remains central to investing in all asset classes,” he added.

Bitcoin is down 3.16% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $85,880, down 3.16% over the past month, as per CoinMarketCap data.

Coutts referred to his March 7 X post, where he said that based on the US Dollar Index (DXY) recent moves through a “historical lens,” it makes it hard to be “anything but bullish” about Bitcoin.

Based on historical DXY performance, Coutts said that by June 1, Bitcoin’s 90-day forecast ranges from a worst-case price of $102,000 to a best-case scenario of $123,000. 

Source: Jamie Coutts

The upper target would represent a 13% gain over its current all-time high of $109,000, which it reached on Jan. 20.

BlackRock’s head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick, recently said that Bitcoin will most likely thrive in a recessionary macro environment.

“I don’t know if we’ll have a recession or not, but a recession would be a big catalyst for Bitcoin,” Mitchnick said in a March 19 interview with Yahoo Finance.

Related: $16.5B in Bitcoin options expire on Friday — Will BTC price soar above $90K?

It comes at the same time that Bitcoin continues to experience its “least bullish conditions” since January 2023, according to CryptoQuant.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index is at 20, its lowest since January 2023, signaling a weak Bitcoin market with low chances of a strong rally soon. 

Based on historical performance, if the score remains below 40 for an extended period, it could signal continued bearish market conditions, similar to previous bear market phases.

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coin Market

Crypto donations top $1B in 2024, gain traction after Myanmar, Thailand quake

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Binance co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao donated over half a million dollars worth of crypto to the earthquake disaster relief effort in Thailand and Myanmar, in another testament to the growing utility of blockchain-based emergency charity efforts.

Zhao donated 1,000 BNB (BNB) tokens worth almost $600,000 to the disaster relief funds for the region on March 3, blockchain data shows.

Zhao donates 1,000 BNB. Source: BscScan

“Sent 1000 BNB for the donation for Myanmar and Thailand,” wrote Zhao in an April 3 X post.

The crypto donation comes after Thailand and Myanmar were hit by a 7.7 magnitude earthquake on March 28, causing severe damage to buildings and widespread flooding.

Related: 70% chance of crypto bottoming before June amid trade fears: Nansen

At least 2,719 people have been confirmed dead in Myanmar and 18 in Thailand, with 76 people still unaccounted for, according to the latest figures shared by Reuters.

The $600,000 donation comes nearly a week after Zhao pledged to donate 500 BNB for the relief efforts, an initial commitment that he doubled. Cryptocurrency-based donations have emerged as a significant lifeline for the region, due to banking restrictions caused by damaged infrastructure.

Source: The Giving Block

Crypto donations exceeded $1 billion in 2024, spurred by increasing digital asset valuations and growing crypto regulatory clarity. About 16% of the donations went toward education, while 14% went toward medicine and health-related efforts.

The Giving Block has launched a crypto-based emergency relief effort for Myanmar and Thailand to raise $500,000 for the devastated region.

Source: TheGivingBlock

The organization expects crypto donations to reach $2.5 billion in 2025 on growing crypto wealth generation and increasing adoption due to a more favorable political landscape.

Related: Trump-linked crypto ventures may complicate US stablecoin policy

Crypto donations gain traction for emergency relief efforts

Zhao’s donation is a testament to the growing role of cryptocurrency in humanitarian aid, according to Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain expert.

“Crypto donations, compared to traditional fiat contributions, offer unique advantages, especially in emergencies,” Lian told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Speed is a key factor—transactions on blockchain networks can settle in minutes, bypassing the delays of banks or intermediaries, which is critical when time saves lives.”

“In disaster-stricken areas like Myanmar or Thailand, where infrastructure might be compromised, crypto can reach recipients directly via digital wallets, no SWIFT codes or wire transfers required,” Lian explained.

Source: Anndy Lian

Lian also donated 44 BNB tokens to the relief efforts in Myanmar and Thailand, a move that was publicly praised by Zhao.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has been known for his crypto donations. In October, Buterin donated over $180,000 in Ether (ETH) to the biotech charity Kanro.

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Coin Market

Bitcoin gets $71K target as tariffs deal rare US business outlook slump

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Bitcoin (BTC) faces conditions similar to the 2022 bear market bottom as US business sees “very high risk” to come.

In his latest analysis, Charles Edwards, the founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, queried when the US would start printing money.

”Higher than expected” US tariffs pressure Bitcoin

Bitcoin reacted noticeably worse than US stocks after President Donald Trump announced worldwide reciprocal trade tariffs on April 2.

BTC/USD fell up to 8.5% on the day, while the S&P 500 managed to end the Wall Street trading session 0.7% higher.

Despite this, Edwards notes that US business expectations reflect the type of uncertainty seen only three times since the turn of the millennium.

“Consider this as tariffs come in higher than expected. The Philly Fed Business Outlook survey is showing expectations today comparable to 2000, 2008 and 2022,” he told X followers.

An accompanying chart showed the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS) back under 15 for the first time since the start of 2024. Late 2022, meanwhile, was the pit of the most recent crypto bear market when BTC/USD reversed at $15,600.

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey vs. S&P 500. Source: Charles Edwards/X

In Capriole’s latest market update on March 31, Edwards acknowledged that BOS data can produce unreliable signals over market sentiment but argued that it should not be ignored.

“While no guarantee of the future outlook (this metric does have false signals) this is a data reading we have had before at very high risk zones (year 2000, 2008 and 2022), telling us to keep a very open mind,” he wrote. 

“Especially if the tariff war escalates significantly beyond current expectations or corporate margins start to fall.”

For Bitcoin, a key level to watch in the tariff aftermath is $91,000, with Capriole suggesting that US macroeconomic moves would “decide the ultimate technical trend from here.”

“All else equal, a daily close above $91K would be a strong bullish reclaim signal,” the update explained alongside the weekly BTC/USD chart. 

“Failing that, a dip into the $71K zone would likely see a sizable bounce.”

BTC/USD 1-day chart (screenshot). Source: Capriole Investments

BTC price focus on US liquidity trend

As Cointelegraph reported, a silver lining for crypto and risk assets could come in the form of increasing global liquidity.

Related: Bitcoin sales at $109K all-time high ‘significantly below’ cycle tops — Glassnode

In the US, the Fed has already begun to loosen tight financial policy, with bets on a return to so-called quantitative easing (QE) varying.

“How long until the Powell printer starts humming?” Edwards queried.

M2 money supply, meanwhile, is due for an “influx” — something which has historically spawned major BTC price upside.

“The BIG take-away (the most important observation) is that a big M2 influx is coming. The exact date is less important,” popular analyst Colin Talks Crypto predicted in an X thread this week.

A comparative chart hinted at a potential BTC price rebound by the start of May.

US M2 money supply vs BTC/USD chart. Source: Colin Talks Crypto/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coin Market

Alabama, Minnesota lawmakers join US states pushing for Bitcoin reserves

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Lawmakers in the US states of Minnesota and Alabama filed companion bills to identical existing bills that if passed into law, would allow each state to buy Bitcoin.

The Minnesota Bitcoin Act, or HF 2946, was introduced to the state’s House by Republican Representative Bernie Perryman on April 1, following an identical bill introduced on March 17 by GOP state Senator Jeremy Miller.

Meanwhile, on the same day in Alabama, Republican state Senator Will Barfoot introduced Senate Bill 283, while a bi-partisan group of representatives led by Republican Mike Shaw filed the identical House Bill 482, which allows for the state to invest in crypto, but essentially limits it to Bitcoin (BTC).

Twin Alabama bills don’t explicitly name Bitcoin

Minnesota’s Bitcoin Act would allow the state’s investment board to invest state assets in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and permit state employees to add crypto to retirement accounts.

It would also exempt crypto gains from state income taxes and give residents the option to pay state taxes and fees with Bitcoin.

Source: Bitcoin Laws

The twin Alabama bills don’t explicitly identify Bitcoin, but would limit the state’s crypto investment into assets that have a minimum market value of $750 billion, a criterion that only Bitcoin currently meets.

26 Bitcoin reserve bills now introduced in the US

Introducing identical bills is not uncommon in the US and is typically done to speed up the bicameral legislative process so laws can pass more quickly.

Bills to create a Bitcoin reserve have been introduced in 26 US states, with Arizona currently the closest to passing a law to make one, according to data from the bill tracking website Bitcoin Laws.

Arizona currently leads in the US state Bitcoin reserve race. Source: Bitcoin Laws

Pennsylvania was one of the first US states to introduce a Bitcoin reserve bill, in November 2024. However, the initiative was reportedly eventually rejected, with similar bills also killed in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

Related: North Carolina bills would add crypto to state’s retirement system 

Montana, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, South Dakota and Wyoming are the five states thathave rejected Bitcoin reserve initiatives. Source: Bitcoin Laws

According to a March 3 report by Barron’s, “red states” like Montana have faced setbacks to the Bitcoin reserve initiatives amid political confrontations between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party.

Additional reporting by Helen Partz.

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