Coin Market

Solana price struggles to flip $150 to support — Is the SOL bull market over?

Published

1 week ago

March 27, 2025

Solana’s native token, SOL (SOL), faced a sharp 8% rejection after briefly touching $147 on March 25. For the past three weeks, SOL has struggled to reclaim the $150 level, which is leading traders to question whether the bullish momentum that was originally driven by memecoin speculation and the rise of artificial intelligence sectors has come to an end.

Some analysts argue that SOL price could significantly benefit from the eventual approval of a Solana spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, as well as the expansion of tokenized real-world assets (RWA) on the Solana network, including stablecoins and money market funds.

Others, like Nikita Bier, co-founder of TBH and Gas startups, believe Solana has “the fundamental building blocks for something to break out on mobile.”

Source: nikitabier

Bier highlighted the constructive regulatory environment from US President Donald Trump and the long-term impact of the memecoin frenzy, which introduced “millions” of new users to Web3 wallets and decentralized applications (DApps). Essentially, Nikita Bier believes Solana is well-positioned due to its streamlined onboarding experience for mobile users.

The lackluster Bitcoin reserve announcement hurt all cryptocurrencies

Despite the potential for establishing a “consumer-grade” marketplace for DApps, most traders suffered losses as the memecoin mania faded and onchain volumes plunged. This decline has led investors to question whether SOL has the strength to reclaim levels above $150. Beyond the waning interest in DApps, Solana is also facing growing competition from other blockchains.

Additionally, the realization that the US government would not purchase altcoins for its strategic reserve and digital asset stockpile was a major disappointment for some investors. On March 6, President Trump signed a bill allowing budget-neutral strategies for the US Treasury to acquire Bitcoin (BTC), while altcoins in government possession could be strategically sold. In fact, there was no explicit mention of Solana or any other altcoin in the Digital Asset Stockpile executive order.

Some may argue that the Solana ecosystem extends far beyond memecoin trading and token launchpads, as total value locked (TVL) has grown across liquid staking, collateralized lending, synthetic assets, and yield platforms. However, Solana’s fees and DApp revenues have continued to decline. Reduced onchain activity reduces SOL’s appeal to investors, thus limiting its upside potential.

Solana 7-day DApp revenues (left) and chain fees (right), USD. Source: DefiLlama

Solana DApp revenues totaled $12 million in the seven days leading up to March 24, down from $23.7 million just two weeks earlier. Similarly, base layer fees reached $3.6 million in the same period, a sharp drop from $6.6 million in the seven days ending March 10. Interestingly, this decline occurred while the total value locked (TVL) remained stable at 53.2 million SOL.

Solana is no longer the dominant network in DEX volumes

The drop in Solana’s onchain activity is particularly concerning given that BNB Chain surged to the top spot in DEX volumes, despite having 34% less TVL than Solana, according to DefiLlama data.

Decentralized exchanges volume market share. Source: DefiLlama

In terms of volume, Solana dominated the DEX industry from October 2024 to February 2025 but has recently lost ground to Ethereum and BNB Chain. As a result, part of SOL’s price weakness stems from a decline in Solana’s onchain activity compared to its competitors. For instance, trading volume on Hyperliquid increased by 35% over the past seven days, while activity on Pendle surged by an impressive 186%.

Although fundamentals do not indicate an imminent rally above $150, the Solana network uniquely combines an integrated user experience with a degree of decentralization that has proven successful. For example, while BNB Chain and Tron offer similar scalability, neither has had a wallet or DApp rank among the top 10 on the Apple App Store—unlike Solana’s Phantom Wallet in November 2024.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Coin Market

Wall Street’s one-day loss tops the entire crypto market cap

Published

3 minutes ago

April 5, 2025

The United States stock market lost more in value over the April 4 trading day than the entire cryptocurrency market is worth, as fears over US President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to ramp up.

On April 4, the US stock market lost $3.25 trillion — around $570 billion more than the entire crypto market’s $2.68 trillion valuation at the time of publication.

Nasdaq 100 is now “in a bear market”

Among the Magnificent-7 stocks, Tesla (TSLA) led the losses on the day with a 10.42% drop, followed by Nvidia (NVDA) down 7.36% and Apple (AAPL) falling 7.29%, according to TradingView data.

The significant decline across the board signals that the Nasdaq 100 is now “in a bear market” after falling 6% across the trading day, trading resource account The Kobeissi Letter said in an April 4 X post. This is the largest daily decline since March 16, 2020.

“US stocks have now erased a massive -$11 TRILLION since February 19 with recession odds ABOVE 60%,” it added. The Kobessi Letter said Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement was “historic” and if the tariffs continue, a recession will be “impossible to avoid.”

Source: Anthony Scaramucci

On April 2, Trump signed an executive order establishing reciprocal tariffs on trading partners and a 10% baseline tariff on all imports from all countries.

Trump said the reciprocal tariffs will be roughly half the rate US trading partners impose on American goods.

Meanwhile, the crypto industry has pointed out that while the stock market continues to decline, Bitcoin (BTC) remains stronger than most expected.

Crypto trader Plan Markus pointed out in an April 4 X post that while the entire stock market “is tanking,” Bitcoin is holding.

Source: Jeff Dorman

Even some crypto skeptics have pointed out the contrast between Bitcoin’s performance and the US stock market during the recent period of macro uncertainty.

Stock market commentator Dividend Hero told his 203,200 X followers that he has “hated on Bitcoin in the past, but seeing it not tank while the stock market does is very interesting to me.”

Meanwhile, technical trader Urkel said Bitcoin “doesn’t appear to care one bit about tariff wars and markets tanking.” Bitcoin is trading at $83,749 at the time of publication, down 0.16% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple a ‘bad actor’ with no crypto legal precedent set

Coin Market

SEC paints 'a distorted picture' of USD-stablecoin market — Crenshaw

Published

3 hours ago

April 5, 2025

US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner and vocal crypto critic Caroline Crenshaw has accused the US regulator of downplaying risks and misrepresenting the US stablecoin market in its newly published guidelines.

However, many in the crypto industry see the SEC’s decision as a step in the right direction.

In an April 4 statement, Crenshaw, who is widely known for opposing the spot Bitcoin ETFs, said that the SEC’s statement on stablecoins contained “legal and factual errors that paint a distorted picture of the USD-stablecoin market that drastically understates its risks.”

Crenshaw disagrees, crypto industry applauds

Under the new SEC guidelines, stablecoins that meet certain criteria are now considered “non-securities” and are exempt from transaction reporting requirements.

Crenshaw disputed the accuracy of the analysis made by the SEC in arriving at that decision. She pushed back on the SEC for reiterating issuer actions “that supposedly stabilize price, ensure redeemability, and otherwise reduce risk.”

Source: David Sacks

The SEC said that “albeit briefly, that some USD-stablecoins are available to retail purchasers only through an intermediary and not directly from the issuer.”

Crenshaw argued this was misleading. She said:

“It is the general rule, not the exception, that these coins are available to the retail public only through intermediaries who sell them on the secondary market, such as crypto trading platforms.”

“Over 90% of USD-stablecoins in circulation are distributed in this way,” Crenshaw added.

Meanwhile, many in the crypto industry expressed optimism over the decision.

Token Metrics founder Ian Ballina said it “feels like a clear step in focusing on what really matters in the crypto space.”

Crypto industry says positive step, just late

Vemanti CEO Tan Tran said he wished the SEC reached this point three years ago, while Midnight Network’s head of partnerships Ian Kane said it “feels like progress for crypto folks trying to play by the rules.”

Crenshaw said it is “also grossly inaccurate” for the SEC to reassure users that an issuer can handle unlimited redemptions just because its reserves match or exceed the value of the supply.

“The issuer’s overall financial health and solvency cannot be judged by the value of its reserve, which tells us nothing about its liabilities, risk from proprietary financial activities, and so forth,” Crenshaw said.

She explained that stablecoins always carry some risk, particularly during market downturns.

It comes only weeks after stablecoin issuer Tether was reportedly engaging with a Big Four accounting firm to audit its assets reserve and verify that its USDT stablecoin is backed at a 1:1 ratio.

On March 22, Cointelegraph reported that Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said the audit process would be more straightforward under pro-crypto US President Donald Trump.

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple a ‘bad actor’ with no crypto legal precedent set

Coin Market

Bitcoin traders prepare for rally to $100K as ‘decoupling’ and ‘gold leads BTC’ trend takes shape

Published

4 hours ago

April 5, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) price could head back toward the $100,000 level quicker than investors expected if the early signs of its decoupling from the US stock market and gold continue.

Source: Cory Bates / X

The “gold leads, Bitcoin follows” relationship is starting

Bitcoin has shrugged off the market jitters caused by US President Donald Trump’s April 2 global tariff announcement.

While BTC initially dropped over 3% to around $82,500, it eventually rebounded by roughly 4.5% to cross $84,700. In contrast, the S&P 500 plunged 10.65% this week, and gold—after hitting a record $3,167 on April 3—has slipped 4.8%.

BTC/USD vs. gold and S&P 500 daily performance chart. Source: TradingView

The fresh divergence is fueling the “gold-leads-Bitcoin narrative,” taking cues from price trends from late 2018 through mid-2019 to predict a strong price recovery toward $100,000.

Gold began a steady ascent, gaining nearly 15% by mid-2019, while Bitcoin remained largely flat. Bitcoin’s breakout followed shortly after, rallying over 170% in early 2019 and then surging another 344% by late 2020.

BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

“A reclaim of $100k would imply a handoff from gold to BTC,” said market analyst MacroScope, adding:

“As in previous cycles, this would open the door to a new period of huge outperformance by BTC over gold and other assets.

The outlook aligned with Alpine Fox founder Mike Alfred, who shared an analysis from March 14, wherein he anticipated Bitcoin to grow 10 times or more than gold based on previous instances.

Source: Mike Alfred / X

Bitcoin-to-gold ratio warns of a bull trap

Bitcoin may be eyeing a drop toward $65,000, based on a bearish fractal playing out in the Bitcoin-to-gold (BTC/XAU) ratio.

The BTC/XAU ratio is flashing a familiar pattern that traders last saw in 2021. The breakdown followed a second major support test at the 50-2W exponential moving average.

BTC/XAU ratio two-week chart. Source: TradingView

BTC/XAU is now repeating this fractal and once again testing the red 50-EMA as support.

In the previous cycle, Bitcoin consolidated around the same EMA level before breaking decisively lower, eventually finding support at the 200-2W EMA (the blue wave). If history repeats, BTC/XAU could be on track for a deeper correction, especially if macro conditions worsen.

Interestingly, these breakdown cycles have coincided with a drop in Bitcoin’s value in dollar terms, as shown below.

BTC/USD 2W price chart. Source: TradingView

Should the fractal repeat, Bitcoin’s initial downside target could be its 50-2W EMA around the $65,000 level, with additional selloffs suggesting declines below $20,000, aligning with the 200-2W EMA.

A bounce from BTC/XAU’s 50-2W EMA, on the other hand, may invalidate the bearish fractal.

US recession would squash Bitcoin’s bullish outlook

From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin’s price outlook appears skewed to the downside.

Investors are concerned that President Donald Trump’s global tariff war could spiral into a full-blown trade war and trigger a US recession. Risk assets like Bitcoin tend to underperform during economic contractions.

Further dampening sentiment, on April 4, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.

Powell warned that inflation progress remains uneven, signaling a prolonged high-rate environment that may add more pressure to Bitcoin’s upside momentum.

Nonetheless, most bond traders see three consecutive rate cuts until the Fed’s September meeting, according to CME data.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.