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Bitcoin price prediction markets bet BTC won't go higher than $138K in 2025

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BItcoin (BTC) retains a $138,000 price target for 2025 as the market recovers from US trade tariffs, new analysis concludes.

Data covering bets on prediction service Polymarket suggests that BTC/USD could still gain around 60% from current levels this year.

“Conservative” Polymarket users cap BTC price upside at 60%

Bitcoin bull market projections have taken a beating this quarter thanks to multiple setbacks impacting crypto and the wider risk-asset spectrum.

Now, an assessment of all potential BTC price outcomes on Polymarket concludes that the bull market cycle may be capped at around 60% before 2026.

The results were uploaded to X by user Ashwin on March 27 and show that price bets extend all the way down to $59,000.

“The great thing about this analysis is that it not only provides a market sentiment score, like the Fear and Greed Index, but also attaches to it the expected price target for both bearish and bullish scenarios,” he explained. 

“This offers a reference to compare one’s price prediction with the market’s.”

BTC price targets on Polymarket. Source: Ashwin/X

Ashwin deconstructed the methodology used to analyze odds across multiple Polymarket arenas, resulting in a potential BTC price range between $59,040 and $138,617.

“The $138k Bitcoin price target may not seem bullish to most Bitcoiners, who are accustomed to hearing hyperbolic valuations. However, the market remains conservative as it recovers from the Trump tariff uncertainty,” he continued.

The modest expectations for BTC/USD mimic those elsewhere. On fellow prediction site Kalshi, one average BTC price target stands at $122,000 — just $11,500 beyond current all-time highs.

BTC price odds (screenshot). Source: Kalshi

Bitcoin support failure remains a risk

As Cointelegraph continues to report, market participants have drawn lines in the sand that price action should not violate in order to protect the broader bull market.

Related: Bitcoin price just ditched a 3-month downtrend as ‘key shift’ begins

These include the area around old all-time highs at $73,800 and the 2021 peak at $69,000.

Earlier this month, a historically accurate forecasting tool, which its creator describes as showing where Bitcoin “won’t be” in the future, gave a 95% chance of $69,000 holding.

In his latest update, popular trader Aksel Kibar stressed that the yearly average of $76,000 must stay in place.

“Extremely important for the price not to breach the year-long average,” he told X followers on March 26.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Aksel Kibar/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coin Market

Sony Electronics Singapore accepts USDC payments through Crypto.com

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The online store of a Singapore-based subsidiary of Japanese tech behemoth Sony is now accepting USDC payments through Crypto.com.

According to an April 2 announcement, Sony Electronics Singapore now accepts USDC (USDC) stablecoin payments through an integration with the Crypto.com exchange. Crypto.com Singapore general manager Chin Tah Ang said:

“We’re pushing to make paying in crypto more mainstream and partnering with a well-established and forward-thinking brand like Sony Electronics Singapore further raises awareness of how simple it can be to pay for everyday goods and services using crypto.”

This is far from the only high-profile partnership that Crypto.com has been recently able to score. At the end of 2024, the mobile-first crypto exchange partnered with Deutsche Bank to provide corporate banking services across Asian-Pacific markets, covering regions such as Singapore, Australia, and Hong Kong.

Related: CFTC mulling probe of Crypto.com over Super Bowl contracts: Report

Singapore bets on stablecoins

The Singaporean Sony subsidiary allowing stablecoin payments may be the start of a new trend in the region. Late February reports indicate that Metro, a publicly listed department store chain in Singapore, has enabled its customers to pay for products using stablecoins like Tether’s USDt.

The initiatives also follow January reports that Singapore is becoming a key destination for Web3 companies after it issued twice as many crypto licenses in 2024 as in the previous year. William Croisettier, chief growth officer of ZKcandy, told Cointelegraph at the time:

“The country adopts a risk-adjusted approach to crypto regulation, focusing on the biggest digital currencies to protect investors. Singapore also makes it easy for new crypto firms to interact with local banking partners, a provision considered a luxury in other parts of the world.”

Related: Singapore Exchange to list Bitcoin futures in H2 2025: Report

An emerging crypto hub

In late November, the crypto-friendly digital bank Singapore Gulf Bank reportedly sought a fund injection of at least $50 million as it plans to acquire a stablecoin payments company in 2025. The firm was motivated to pursue the effort, with alleged plans to sell up to 10% of its equity to fund it.

A study published at the end of 2024 revealed that its approach to regulation made Singapore a global champion of blockchain technology. The country scored the highest among all considered jurisdictions based on multiple factors.

The top blockchain jurisdictions ranked based on patents, jobs, and exchanges. Source: ApeX Protocol

Magazine: Singapore ‘not ready’ for Bitcoin ETFs, sneaky crypto mining rig importer: Asia Express

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Coin Market

Bitcoin sales at $109K all-time high 'significantly below' cycle tops — Research

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Bitcoin (BTC) investors who bought BTC in 2020 or later are still waiting for higher prices, new research says.

In findings published on X on April 1, onchain analytics firm Glassnode revealed that $110,000 was not high enough to make many hodlers sell.

Glassnode: 2020 Bitcoin buyers “still holding”

Bitcoiners who entered the market between three and five years ago have retained their holdings despite significant BTC price upside.

According to Glassnode, this investor cohort, with a cost basis between the 2020 lows of $3,600 and the 2021 highs of $69,000, is still hodling.

“Although the share of wealth held by investors who bought $BTC 3–5 years ago has declined by 3 percentage points since its November 2024 peak, it remains at historically elevated levels,” it said.

“This suggests that the majority of investors who entered between 2020 and 2022 are still holding.”

Bitcoin Realized Cap HODL Waves data. Source: Glassnode

An accompanying chart shows data from the Realized Cap HODL Waves metric, which splits the BTC supply into sections based on when each coin last moved onchain.

Using this, Glassnode is able to draw a distinction between the 2020-22 buyers and those who came immediately before them.

“In contrast, over two-thirds of those who had bought $BTC 5–7 years ago exited their positions by the December 2024 peak,” it reveals, reflecting their lower cost basis.

Speculators stay cool at BTC price highs

As Cointelegraph reported, more recent buyers, who form the more speculative investor cohort known as short-term holders (STHs), have proven much more sensitive to recent BTC price volatility.

Related: Bitcoin sellers ‘dry up’ as weekly exchange inflows near 2-year low

Episodes of panic selling have occurred throughout the past six months as BTC/USD hit new record highs and then fell by up to 30%.

Continuing, Glassnode said that current STH participation does not suggest a speculative frenzy — something common to previous BTC price cycle tops.

“Short-Term Holders currently hold around 40% of Bitcoin’s network wealth, after peaking near 50% earlier in 2025,” it said, alongside Realized Cap HODL Waves data on March 31. 

“This remains significantly below prior cycle tops, where new investor wealth peaked at 70–90%, suggesting a more tempered and distributed bull market so far.”

Bitcoin Realized Cap HODL Waves. Source: Glassnode

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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SEC and Gemini ask to pause lawsuit to explore ‘potential resolution’

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The US Securities and Exchange Commission and crypto exchange Gemini have asked to pause the regulator’s suit over the exchange’s Gemini Earn program, saying they want to discuss a potential resolution. 

In an April 1 letter to New York federal court judge Edgardo Ramos, lawyers representing the SEC and Genesis requested a 60-day hold on the case and that all deadlines be pulled “to allow the parties to explore a potential resolution.” 

“In this case, the parties submit that it is in each of their interests to stay this matter while they consider a potential resolution and agree that no party or non-party would be prejudiced by a stay,” the letter states.

The lawyers added that a stay was in the court’s interest as “a resolution would conserve judicial resources” and proposed that a joint status report be submitted within 60 days after the entry of the stay.

The SEC sued Gemini and crypto lending firm Genesis Global Capital in January 2023, alleging they offered unregistered securities through the Gemini Earn program.

In March 2024, Genesis agreed to pay $21 million to settle charges related to the lending program, but the enforcement case against Gemini remains outstanding.

Letter from SEC and Genesis Global requesting extension of stay. Source: CourtListener

The letter did not specify what a possible resolution would entail, but the SEC has dropped several lawsuits it launched against crypto companies under the Biden administration, including against Coinbase, Ripple and Kraken.

Related: Will new US SEC rules bring crypto companies onshore?

In February, Gemini said the SEC closed a separate investigation into the firm as the regulator winds back its crypto enforcement under President Donald Trump. 

“The SEC cost us tens of millions of dollars in legal bills alone and hundreds of millions in lost productivity, creativity, and innovation. Of course, Gemini is not alone,” Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss said at the time.

OpenSea, Crypto.com and Uniswap, among others, have also recently reported that the SEC had closed similar probes into their companies that were investigating alleged breaches of securities laws.

Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29

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