Coin Market

Price analysis 3/26: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK, AVAX, XLM

Published

7 days ago

March 26, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls have maintained the pressure and are attempting to push the price above the $90,000 resistance. A positive sign in favor of the bulls is that the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have witnessed net inflows for eight successive trading days, according to SoSoValue data. That indicates institutional investors are gradually buying again.

In another positive, a Bitcoin whale bought 2,400 Bitcoin — worth over $200 million — on March 24 to increase the total holding to more than 15,000 BTC, blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence said in a post on X.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

However, a Bitcoin rally may not be easy as bulls are expected to encounter solid selling near $90,000. Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson highlighted in a post on X that whales had closed long positions and initiated short positions on Bitcoin at $88,000. He added that history says the whales are right.

Could Bitcoin break above the stiff overhead resistance, pulling altcoins higher, or is it time for a short-term correction? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin is facing selling at the resistance line, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not allowed the price to dip below the 20-day exponential moving average ($85,825).

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The flattening 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint suggest that the bulls have a slight edge. A break and close above the 50-day simple moving average ($89,787) indicates that the correction may be over. The BTC/USDT pair could soar to $95,000 and later to the crucial resistance at $100,000.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it signals that the bulls have given up. That may sink the pair to $83,000 and then to $80,000.

Ether price analysis

Ether’s (ETH) recovery is facing solid resistance at the breakdown level of $2,111, indicating that the bears are unwilling to give up their advantage.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price continues lower and breaks below $1,937, it will signal that the bears are trying to flip the $2,111 level into resistance. If that happens, the ETH/USDT pair could decline to $1,800.

This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns up and breaks above $2,111. That opens the doors for a rally to the 50-day SMA ($2,325) and subsequently to $2,550. Such a move will suggest that the pair may have formed a short-term bottom at $1,754.

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) is trying to take support at the 20-day EMA ($2.39), suggesting that the bulls are buying on dips.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will try to push the price to the resistance line. If the price turns down sharply from the resistance line and breaks below the moving averages, it will signal that the bears remain in control. That could keep the XRP/USDT pair stuck between the resistance line and $2 for some more time.

Buyers will be in the driver’s seat on a break and close above the resistance line. The pair may rally to $3 and eventually to $3.40.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) bulls are facing resistance at $644, but a positive sign is that the buyers have not given up much ground to the bears.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($616) has started to turn up, and the RSI is in the positive zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers drive the price above $644, the BNB/USDT pair could ascend to $686. This level may again act as a strong barrier, but if the bulls overcome it, the pair may rally to $745.

The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA. That may pull the price down toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $591.

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) broke and closed above the 20-day EMA ($136) on March 24, suggesting the start of a relief rally.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 50-day SMA ($155) may act as a resistance, but if the bulls prevail, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to $180. Sellers are expected to aggressively defend the $180 level. If the price turns down sharply from $180 and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will signal a possible range formation in the near term. The pair may consolidate between $110 and $180 for some time.

Instead, if buyers drive the price above $180, it suggests that the pair has started its journey toward the top of the large $110 to $260 range.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) rose and closed above the 20-day EMA ($0.18) on March 25, suggesting the start of a sustained recovery.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The DOGE/USDT pair is facing selling at the 50-day SMA ($0.21). If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will signal buying on dips. The bulls will try to propel the pair to $0.24 and later to $0.29.

On the other hand, if the price skids below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that bears continue to sell on rallies. The pair may drop to $0.16 and then to the crucial support at $0.14.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) bulls pushed the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.75) but are struggling to sustain the higher levels.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, the bears will attempt to pull the ADA/USDT pair to the uptrend line. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it could tilt the advantage in favor of the bears. The pair could then descend to $0.58 and, after that, to $0.50.

If buyers want to seize control, they will have to push and maintain the price above the 50-day SMA. If they manage to do that, the pair could rise to $0.84. This level may act as a strong resistance, but if the bulls prevail, the pair may climb to $1.02.

Chainlink price analysis

Chainlink (LINK) has moved up to the 50-day SMA ($16.12), which is likely to act as a stiff resistance.

LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price turns down from the 50-day SMA, the LINK/USDT pair may find support at the 20-day EMA ($14.75). A strong rebound off the 20-day EMA increases the likelihood of a break above the 50-day SMA. The pair could climb to $17.7 and later to the resistance line.

If bears want to prevent the upside, they will have to swiftly pull the price back below the 20-day EMA. The pair could slump to $13.82 and thereafter to the channel’s support line.

Avalanche price analysis

Avalanche’s (AVAX) relief rally rose above the 50-day SMA ($22.10) on March 25, indicating that the downtrend could be ending.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($20.42) has started to turn up, and the RSI has jumped into the positive zone, signaling an advantage to buyers. If the AVAX/USDT pair turns down from the current level but finds support at the 20-day EMA, it suggests a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That improves the prospects of a rally to $27.23.

On the contrary, a break and close below the 20-day EMA signals a range formation between $25.12 and $15.27.

Stellar price analysis

Stellar (XLM) recovered to the breakdown level of $0.31, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.

XLM/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price turns down from $0.31 and breaks below $0.27, it will suggest that the bears are active at higher levels. That heightens the risk of a drop to the critical support at $0.22, where buyers are expected to step in.

Alternatively, a break and close above $0.31 signals that the markets have rejected the breakdown. The XLM/USDT pair may rise to the downtrend line, which could again pose a substantial challenge. A break and close above the downtrend line suggests a potential trend change.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Coin Market

Bitcoin can hit $250K in 2025 if Fed shifts to QE: Arthur Hayes

Published

41 minutes ago

April 2, 2025

Bitcoin may still rise to over $250,000 before the end of the year, with expectations of an increasing fiat supply remaining the significant catalyst for the world’s first cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) 2025 price rally may be boosted by the US Federal Reserve pivoting to quantitative easing (QE), when the Fed buys bonds and pumps money into the economy to lower interest rates and encourage spending during difficult financial conditions.

“Bitcoin trades solely based on the market expectation for the future supply of fiat,” according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom.

Hayes wrote in an April 1 Substack post:

“If my analysis of the Fed’s major pivot from QT to QE for treasuries is correct, then Bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 last month, and now we begin the ascent to $250,000 by year-end.”

The Fed reduced the Treasury runoff cap to $5 billion per month from $25 billion effective April 1, while keeping mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoff steady at $35 billion.

The Fed may allow the MBS roll off without replacement and the excess principal payment might be reinvested into Treasurys, according to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell published by Reuters.

“Mathematically, that keeps the Fed balance sheet constant; however, that is treasury QE. Bitcoin will scream higher once this is formally announced,” added Hayes.

Other analysts are eying a more conservative Bitcoin price top based on BTC’s correlation with the global liquidity index.

BTC projected to reach $132,000 based on M2 money supply growth. Source: Jamie Coutts

The growing money supply could push Bitcoin’s price above $132,000 before the end of 2025, according to estimates from Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision.

Fed will “flood the market with dollars”

Hayes has been “buying Bitcoin and shitcoins at all levels between $90,000 to $76,500,” showcasing his conviction in the crypto market for the rest of 2025. The pace of capital deployment will increase or decrease depending on the accuracy of his predictions.

“I still believe Bitcoin can hit $250,000 by year-end because now that the BBC has put Powell in his place, the Fed will flood the market with dollars,” wrote Hayes, adding:

“That allows Xi Jinping to instruct the PBOC to stop tightening monetary conditions onshore to defend the dollar-yuan exchange rate, which increases the net quantity of yuan.”

Despite the optimistic prediction, many market participants are betting on a lower Bitcoin price top for the end of 2025.

Source: Polymarket

Only 9% of traders have placed bets on Bitcoin hitting $250,000, while 60% expect Bitcoin to hit $110,000 in 2025, according to Polymarket, the largest decentralized predictions market.

Still, Bitcoin and global risk appetite remain pressured by global tariff fears ahead of US President Donald Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement, scheduled for April 2.

“Long-term positioning remains intact, but near-term momentum appears tethered to unfolding macro headlines,” Stella Zlatareva, dispatch editor at digital asset investment platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s odds of June highs, SOL’s $485M outflows, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 2 – 8

Coin Market

Nakamoto coefficient explained: Measuring decentralization in blockchain networks

Published

2 hours ago

April 2, 2025

Measuring decentralization in blockchain

Decentralization involves spreading control and decision-making across a network instead of a single authority.

Unlike centralized systems, where one entity controls everything, decentralized blockchains distribute data among participants (nodes). Each node holds a copy of the ledger, ensuring transparency and reducing the risk of manipulation or system failure.

In blockchain, a decentralized network provides significant advantages:

Security: Decentralization reduces vulnerabilities associated with central points of attack. Without a single controlling entity, malicious actors find it more challenging to compromise the network. Transparency: All transactions are recorded on a public ledger accessible to all participants, fostering trust through transparency. This openness ensures that no single entity can manipulate data without consensus. Fault tolerance: Decentralized networks are more resilient to failures. Data distribution across multiple nodes ensures that the system remains operational even if some nodes fail.

So, decentralization is good, but it’s not a fixed state. It’s more of a spectrum, constantly shifting as network participation, governance structures and consensus mechanisms evolve.

And yes, there’s a ruler for that. It’s called the Nakamoto coefficient.

What is the Nakamoto coefficient?

The Nakamoto coefficient is a metric used to quantify the decentralization of a blockchain network. It represents the minimum number of independent entities — such as validators, miners or node operators — that would need to collude to disrupt or compromise the network’s normal operation.

This concept was introduced in 2017 by former Coinbase chief technology officer Balaji Srinivasan and was named after Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.

A higher Nakamoto coefficient indicates greater decentralization and security within the blockchain network. In such networks, control is more widely distributed among participants, making it more challenging for any small group to manipulate or attack the system. Conversely, a lower Nakamoto coefficient suggests fewer entities hold significant control, increasing the risk of centralization and potential vulnerabilities.

For example, a blockchain with a Nakamoto coefficient of 1 would be highly centralized, as a single entity could control the network. In contrast, a network with a coefficient of 10 would require at least 10 independent entities to collude to exert control, reflecting a more decentralized and secure structure.

Did you know? Polkadot‘s high score on the Nakamoto coefficient is largely due to Polkadot’s nominated proof-of-stake (NPoS) consensus mechanism, which promotes an even distribution of stakes among a large number of validators.

Calculating the Nakamoto coefficient

Calculating this coefficient involves several key steps:

Identification of key entities: First, determine the primary actors within the network, such as mining pools, validators, node operators or stakeholders. These entities play significant roles in maintaining the network’s operations and security.Assessment of each entity’s control: Next, evaluate the extent of control each identified entity has over the network’s resources. For instance, in proof-of-work (PoW) blockchains like Bitcoin, this involves analyzing the hashrate distribution among mining pools. In proof-of-stake (PoS) systems it requires examining the stake distribution among validators.Summation to determine the 51% threshold: After assessing individual controls, rank the entities from highest to lowest based on their influence. Then, cumulatively add their control percentages until the combined total exceeds 51%. The number of entities required to reach this threshold represents the Nakamoto coefficient.

Consider a PoW blockchain with the following mining pool distribution:

Mining pool A: 25% (of the total hashrate)Mining pool B: 20%Mining pool C: 15%Mining pool D: 10%Others: 30%

To determine the Nakamoto coefficient:

Start with mining pool A (25%).Add mining pool B (25% 20% = 45%).Add mining pool C (45% 15% = 60%).

In this scenario, the combined hashrate of mining pools A, B and C reaches 60%, surpassing the 51% threshold. Therefore, the Nakamoto coefficient is 3, indicating that collusion among these three entities could compromise the network’s integrity.

Did you know? Despite Bitcoin’s reputation for decentralization, its mining subsystem is notably centralized. The Nakamoto coefficient is currently 2 for Bitcoin. This means that just two mining pools control most of Bitcoin’s mining power.

Limitations of the Nakamoto coefficient

While the Nakamoto coefficient serves as a valuable metric for assessing blockchain decentralization, it possesses certain limitations that warrant careful consideration.

For example:

Static snapshot

The Nakamoto coefficient provides a static snapshot of decentralization, reflecting the minimum number of entities required to compromise a network at a specific point in time.

However, blockchain networks are dynamic, with participant roles and influence evolving due to factors like staking, mining power shifts or node participation changes. Consequently, the coefficient may not accurately capture these temporal fluctuations, potentially leading to outdated or misleading assessments.

Subsystem focus

This metric typically focuses on specific subsystems, such as validators or mining pools, potentially overlooking other critical aspects of decentralization. Factors like client software diversity, geographical distribution of nodes and token ownership concentration also significantly impact a network’s decentralization and security.

Relying solely on the Nakamoto coefficient might result in an incomplete evaluation.

Consensus mechanism variations

Different blockchain networks employ various consensus mechanisms, each influencing decentralization differently. The Nakamoto coefficient may not uniformly apply across these diverse systems, necessitating tailored approaches for accurate measurement.

External Influences

External factors, including regulatory actions, technological advancements or market dynamics, can influence decentralization over time. For example, regulatory policies in specific regions might affect the operation of nodes or mining facilities, thereby altering the network’s decentralization landscape.

The Nakamoto coefficient may not account for such externalities, limiting its comprehensiveness.

To sum up, the Nakamoto coefficient is useful for assessing certain aspects of blockchain decentralization. It should be used alongside other metrics and qualitative assessments to gain a comprehensive understanding of a network’s decentralization and security.

Coin Market

7-Eleven South Korea to accept CBDC payments in national pilot program

Published

2 hours ago

April 2, 2025

South Korea’s 7-Eleven stores will accept payments in the country’s central bank digital currency (CBDC) until June, as the retailer participates in the test phase of its CBDC project.

The convenience store chain will reportedly provide a 10% discount on all products paid for with CBDC during the test period. According to Moon Dae-woo, head of 7-Eleven’s digital innovation division, the company is making an effort to incorporate digital technology advancements in its operations.

The executive added that the company’s participation in the CBDC test will help accelerate the firm’s digital transformation.

Many stores will participate in South Korea’s CBDC testing phase, which runs from April 1 to June 30. The project also involves 100,000 participants who will be allowed to test payments using CBDC issued by the central bank.

Central bank digital currencies are digital assets issued by government agencies. Like other digital assets, CBDCs offer faster and more modernized payment features. However, unlike Bitcoin and other privacy-focused tokens that offer certain levels of anonymity, CBDCs are controlled and monitored by governments.

South Korea tests CBDC from April to June

On March 24, government agencies including the Bank of Korea, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) announced the CBDC test.

Participants can convert their bank deposits into tokens stored in a distributed ledger during the test period. The tokens hold the same value as the Korean won.

The government agencies said citizens aged 19 or older with a deposit account in a participating bank could apply to take part. Registrations were limited to 100,000 participants. KB, Koomin, Shinhan, Hana, Woori, NongHyup, IBK and Busan are among the banks participating in the CBDC tests.

Apart from 7-Eleven, participants can use their CBDCs in coffee shops, supermarkets, K-Pop merchandise stores and delivery platforms. However, users will be limited to a total conversion limit of 5 million won ($3,416) during testing.

The Bank of Korea first announced the retail CBDC testing for 100,000 users in November 2023 and was originally scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter of 2024. The FSS said the country’s CBDC test represents a step toward creating a prototype for a “future monetary system.”

Magazine: Ridiculous ‘Chinese Mint’ crypto scam, Japan dives into stablecoins: Asia Express