Bitcoin’s (BTC) 7% decline saw the price drop from $88,060 on March 26 to $82,036 on March 29 and led to $158 million in long liquidations. This drop was particularly concerning for bulls, as gold surged to a record high at the same time, undermining Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative. However, many experts argue that a Bitcoin rally is imminent as multiple governments take steps to avert an economic crisis.

The ongoing global trade war and spending cuts by the US government are considered temporary setbacks. An apparent silver lining is the expectation that additional liquidity is expected to flow into the markets, which could boost risk-on assets. Analysts believe Bitcoin is well-positioned to benefit from this broader macroeconomic shift.

Source: Mihaimihale

Take, for example, Mihaimihale, an X social platform user who argued that tax cuts and lower interest rates are necessary to “kickstart” the economy, particularly since the previous year’s growth was “propped up” by government spending, which proved unsustainable.

The less favorable macroeconomic environment pushed gold to a record high of $3,087 on March 28, while the US dollar weakened against a basket of foreign currencies, with the DXY Index dropping to 104 from 107.40 a month earlier.

Additionally, the $93 million in net outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on March 28 further weighed on sentiment, as traders acknowledged that even institutional investors are susceptible to selling amid rising recession risks.

US inflation slows amid economic recession fears

The market currently assigns a 50% probability that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to 4% or lower by July 30, up from 46% a month earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Implied rates for Fed Funds on July 30. Source: CME FedWatch

The crypto market is presently in a “withdrawal phase,” according to Alexandre Vasarhelyi, the founding partner at B2V Crypto. Vasarhelyi noted that recent major announcements, such as the US strategic Bitcoin reserve executive order mark progress in the metric that matters the most: adoption.

Vasarhelyi said real-world asset (RWA) tokenization is a promising trend, but he believes its impact remains limited. “BlackRock’s billion-dollar BUIDL fund is a step forward, but it’s insignificant compared to the $100 trillion bond market.”

Vasarhelyi added:

“Whether Bitcoin’s floor is $77,000 or $65,000 matters little; the story is early-stage growth.”

Gold decouples from stocks, bonds and Bitcoin

Experienced traders view a 10% stock market correction as routine. However, some anticipate a decline in “policy uncertainty” by early April, which would reduce the likelihood of a recession or bear market.

Source: WarrenPies

Warren Pies, founder of 3F Research, expects the US administration to soften its stance on tariffs, which could stabilize investor sentiment. This shift may help the S&P 500 stay above its March 13 low of 5,505. However, market volatility remains a factor as economic conditions evolve.

Related: Bitcoin price falls toward range lows, but data shows ‘whales going wild right now’

For some, the fact that gold decoupled from the stock market while Bitcoin succumbed to “extreme fear” is evidence that the digital gold thesis was flawed. However, more experienced investors, including Vasarhelyi, argue that Bitcoin’s weak performance reflects its early-stage adoption rather than a failure of its fundamental qualities.

Vasarhelyi said,

“Legislative shifts pave the way for user-friendly products, trading some of crypto’s flexibility for mainstream appeal. My take is adoption will accelerate, but 2025 remains a foundation year, not a tipping point.”

Analysts view the recent Bitcoin correction as a reaction to recession fears and the temporary tariff war. However, they expect these factors to trigger expansionist measures from central banks, ultimately creating a favorable environment for risk-on assets, including Bitcoin.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Prediction market Kalshi filed a lawsuit against the Nevada Gaming Control Board and the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement after both state regulators sent cease and desist orders for the firm to pause all sports-related contracts in the states.

Kalshi’s legal team argued that the contracts fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and, therefore, cannot be regulated by state-level authorities.

The team also contends that the cease and desist orders fail to recognize that Kalshi’s event contracts are two-sided markets that trade as swaps as opposed to the sports-betting book model where the house controls the market. Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour said:

“Prediction markets are a critical innovation of the 21st century, and like all innovations, they are initially misunderstood. We are proud to be the company that has pioneered this technology and stand ready to defend it once again in a court of law.”

Additionally, the Nevada Gaming Control Board sent Kalshi a cease and desist order for its election contracts, which a United States judge ruled were legal in September 2024 — allowing the contracts to trade freely in the US.

Kalshi lawsuit against Nevada Gaming Control Board. Source: Kalshi

Related: Massachusetts subpoenas Robinhood over sports prediction markets

CFTC commits to ending regulation by enforcement

On Feb 4, acting CFTC director Caroline Pham issued a notice signaling a major regulatory pivot at the CFTC and ending regulation through enforcement actions, choosing to focus on fraud instead.

“The CFTC is strengthening its enforcement program to focus on victims of fraud, as well as remaining vigilant for other violations of law,” Pham said

This major change at the CFTC was welcomed by industry firms as a breath of fresh air following a torrent of regulatory lawsuits and enforcement actions under the Biden administration.

The regulator also initiated a probe into Super Bowl event contracts offered by Kalshi and Crypto.Com on the same day the notice was sent out.

The goal of the CFTC’s probe was to ensure that the Super Bowl event contracts complied with existing derivatives laws in the US, and the CFTC ultimately took no action to ban the contracts.

Magazine: Train AI agents to make better predictions… for token rewards

Opinion by: Alisia Painter, chief operating officer of Botanix Labs

Without Ethereum, the industry wouldn’t be where it is today in terms of bringing decentralized finance (DeFi) to life, making programmability a key feature of blockchains and proving the value of smart contracts at scale. The Ethereum Virtual Machine has become the go-to platform for developers, with the largest ecosystem and tooling.

As DeFi matures, however, it’s worth asking: Is Ethereum the best foundation for the future of financial innovation? Well, the answer might just be Bitcoin.

With nearly $6 billion in total value locked as of March 2025, Bitcoin’s decentralization, liquidity and resilience position it as the natural home for the next era of onchain finance, and while Ethereum’s flexibility has enabled an explosion of experimentation, that same flexibility has come with trade-offs.

From vulnerabilities in smart contracts we’ve seen in big-name hacks to ongoing debates around scalability, Ethereum’s experimental ethos has left cracks in its foundation. By contrast, Bitcoin offers a solid, battle-tested infrastructure where DeFi can flourish sustainably and cross the chasm from degens into mainstream adoption.

Ethereum’s contribution and limitations

Ethereum was responsible for pioneering what we know to be DeFi today. This innovation and development served as a testing ground for what Bitcoin is capable of and can ultimately achieve. Its programmability has empowered developers to create everything from automated lending platforms to sophisticated derivatives. These products exist solely because of Ethereum’s smart contract capabilities.

With that flexibility came serious trade-offs, and we’ve seen them play out in real-time. The DAO hack in 2016 drained $50 million and nearly killed Ethereum in its infancy. The 2022 Wormhole exploit cost $325 million in recent years, and the Ronin Bridge hack took $620 million.

These weren’t just bad luck — they’re the predictable result of Ethereum’s open-ended programmability. Smart contracts are powerful, but they’re also complex. Complexity breeds vulnerability. Solidity simply wasn’t designed with security as the primary consideration.

Recent: Ethereum researcher pitches solution to fix centralization woes, eliminate MEV

At the same time, Ethereum’s scaling challenges have made it increasingly inaccessible. 

Network congestion and gas fees soaring to hundreds of dollars during peak periods have effectively locked out average users. Seasoned users will be very well accustomed to the eye-watering gas fees required just to make basic swaps during times of high network congestion. Layer-2 solutions like Optimism and Arbitrum have made great progress, but they fragment liquidity and introduce their own trust assumptions.

This isn’t to say Ethereum is failing. It’s not. As DeFi matures beyond its experimental phase and becomes more mainstream in global finance, we need to ask whether it makes sense to keep building on this foundation or to consider a more resilient alternative.

Why Bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s design philosophy is radically different. It isn’t a platform for unlimited experimentation; it’s a fortress of stability. Its conservative development ethos and proof-of-work consensus make Bitcoin the most secure blockchain in existence. This security translates into trust — a critical ingredient for DeFi applications handling billions of dollars in value.

Liquidity is another advantage Bitcoin offers. With a market capitalization that dwarfs Ether’s (ETH), Bitcoin (BTC) is the most liquid cryptocurrency, making it an ideal base layer for DeFi. The rise of technologies like Bitcoin’s Lightning Network and sidechains like Spiderchain are already unlocking Bitcoin’s potential for smart contracts, offering the programmability developers need without sacrificing security or scalability.

Not all Bitcoin projects are created equal 

Many so-called Bitcoin L2s and sidechains claim to be “Bitcoin native,” offering applications the promise of leveraging Bitcoin’s intrinsic security properties.

Let’s set the record straight: Many aren’t truly Bitcoin-native.

Without pointing fingers, these projects often rely on custodial multisig setups, bridge Bitcoin to Ethereum or another chain, and then build rollups on top. While there’s nothing inherently wrong with this approach, and there will be use cases that work with this set of trust assumptions, it’s not the same as being natively built on Bitcoin.

True Bitcoin L2s are designed directly on Bitcoin, tapping into its liquidity, security and resilience — qualities that have withstood the test of time. If we want to expand DeFi capabilities, we must build them on Bitcoin. It’s a straightforward ask, but one worth reiterating as we see major players exploring paths that may not fully align with Bitcoin’s potential.

The path forward

The debate shouldn’t be framed as Ethereum versus Bitcoin. That’s a false binary. Ethereum’s innovation-first approach has been crucial in proving what’s possible, and it remains an essential hub of DeFi experimentation. Bitcoin offers something Ethereum doesn’t: a foundation that has already earned the trust of the broader financial world.

Users shouldn’t have to choose between security and functionality. Bitcoin’s resilience is combined with sophisticated financial tools similar to those pioneered by Ethereum. Some of the most exciting work happening now is at this intersection.

For DeFi to fulfill its promise of creating a fair, open and inclusive financial system, it must move beyond its experimental phase. It must be secure enough that average people can use it without fear of losing everything to an exploit. It needs liquidity deep enough to support real-world financial activity. And it requires the kind of institutional trust that only Bitcoin has achieved.

The future of finance will be built on Bitcoin not because Ethereum failed but because Bitcoin provides the foundation that finance demands.

Opinion by: Alisia Painter, chief operating officer of Botanix Labs

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.