Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson maintains his optimistic outlook for BTC (BTC), suggesting that there is a 75% chance that the asset will hit new highs in the next nine months.

In a March 25 X post, Peterson highlighted BTC’s current position near the lower bound of its historical range. The analyst emphasized that Bitcoin’s current path aligns with the bottom 25% threshold, giving it majority odds for a positive rally.

Bitcoin 10-year seasonality chart. Source: X.com

Peterson said, 

“Here is a 50% chance it will gain 50%+ in the short term.”

Peterson’s statements follow an earlier study that found that most of Bitcoin’s annual bullish performance occurred in April and October, which have averaged 12.98% and 21.98%, respectively, over the past decade.

Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: CoinGlass

Related: Bitcoin flips ‘macro bullish’ amid first Hash Ribbon buy signal in 8 months

Bitcoin onchain cost basis zone key investors’ levels

In a recent quicktake post on CryptoQuant, anonymous analyst Crazzyblockk said that the realized price for short-term whales is $91,000, whereas most highly active addresses hold a cost basis between $84,000 and $85,000.

Bitcoin short-term whales position. Source: CryptoQuant

A dip below the cost basis could trigger selling, making the $84,000 to $85,000 range a critical liquidity zone.

The analyst added, 

“These onchain cost basis levels represent decision zones where market psychology shifts. Traders and investors should closely monitor price reactions in these areas to gauge trend strength and potential reversals.”

Related: BlackRock launches Bitcoin ETP in Europe

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, an independent agency of the federal government, is reportedly moving to stop using the “reputational risk” category as a way to supervise banks.

According to a letter sent by the agency’s acting chairman, Travis Hill, to Rep. Dan Meuser on March 24, banking regulators should not use “reputational risk” to scrutinize firms.

“While a bank’s reputation is critically important, most activities that could threaten a bank’s reputation do so through traditional risk channels (e.g., credit risk, market risk, etc.) that supervisors already focus on,” notes the letter, first reported by Politico.

According to the document, the FDIC has completed a “review of all mentions of reputational risk” in its regulations and policy documents and has “plans to eradicate this concept from our regulatory approach.”

Reputational risk and debanking

The Federal Reserve defines reputational risk as “the potential that negative publicity regarding an institution’s business practices, whether true or not, will cause a decline in the customer base, costly litigation, or revenue reductions.”

The FIDC letter specifically mentioned digital assets, with Hill noting that the agency has generally been “closed for business” for institutions interested in blockchain or distributed ledger technology. Now, as per the document, the FDIC is working on a new direction for digital asset policy aiming at providing banks a way to engage with digital assets.

The letter was sent in response to a February communication from Meuser and other lawmakers with recommendations for digital asset rules and ways to prevent debanking.

Industries deemed as “risky” to banks often face significant challenges in establishing or maintaining banking relationships. The crypto industry faced such challenges during what became known as Operation Chokepoint 2.0.

The unofficial Operation led to more than 30 technology and cryptocurrency companies being denied banking services in the US after the collapse of crypto-friendly banks earlier in 2023.

Related: FDIC resists transparency on Operation Chokepoint 2.0 — Coinbase CLO

Many Bitcoin (BTC) traders became bullish this week as prices rallied deep into the $88,000 level, but failure to overcome this level in the short term could be a take-profit signal.

Alphractal, a crypto analytics platform, noted that Bitcoin whales have entered short positions at the $88,000 level. 

In a recent X post, the platform highlighted that the “Whale Position Sentiment” metric exhibited a sharp reversal in the chart, indicating that major players with a bearish bias have stepped. The metric defines the relationship between the aggregated open interest and trades larger than $1 million across multiple exchanges.

Bitcoin: Whale position sentiment. Source: X

As illustrated in the chart, the two circled regions are synonymous with Bitcoin price falling to the $88,000 level. Alphractal said, 

“When the Whale Position Sentiment starts to decline, even if the price temporarily rises, it is a strong signal that whales are entering short positions, which may lead to a price drop.”

Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson also confirmed that whales had closed their long positions and that prices have historically moved according to their directional bias. 

Bitcoin: Bull score signals. Source: CryptoQuant

Similarly, 8 out of 10 onchain signals on CryptoQuant have turned bearish. As highlighted above, with the exception of the stablecoin liquidity and technical signal indicators, all the other metrics flash red, underlining the likelihood of a possible pullback in Bitcoin price.

Last week, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, noted that the markets were entering a bear market and that investors should expect “6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”

Related: Will Bitcoin price hit $130K in 90 days? Yes, says one analyst

Bitcoin outflows reach $424M in 7 days

While onchain metrics turned red, some investors exhibited confidence in Bitcoin. Data from IntoTheBlock highlighted net BTC outflows of $220 million from exchanges over the past 24 hours. The sum reached $424 million between March 18 to March 24. This trend implies that certain holders are accumulating. 

Bitcoin net outflows by IntoTheBlock. Source: X

On the lower time frame (LTF) chart, Bitcoin formed an intraday high at $88,752 on March 24, but since then, BTC has yet to establish a new intraday high.

Bitcoin 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

With Bitcoin moving within the trendlines of an ascending channel pattern, it’s expected that the price will face resistance from the upper range of the pattern and 50-day, 100-day, exponential moving averages on the daily chart. 

With whales possibly shorting between $88,000 and $90,000, Bitcoin needs to close above $90,000 for a continued rally to $100,000. 

Related: Bitcoin sets sights on ‘spoofy’ $90K resistance in new BTC price boost

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.