Coin Market

Crypto Biz: As crypto booms, recession looms

Published

4 days ago

March 21, 2025

America’s pro-crypto policy shift has become a bipartisan commitment as Democrats and Republicans look to secure the US dollar’s influence as a global reserve currency. According to US Representative and California Democrat Ro Khanna, at least 70 of his fellow party members now understand the importance of stablecoin regulation.

According to Khanna, Americans can expect sensible crypto market structure and stablecoin bills this year. Under normal circumstances, this news would send crypto prices soaring, but that’s not been the case as President Donald Trump’s trade policies stoke recession fears.

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood is the latest crypto industry executive to sound the recession alarm. While a recession is rarely a good thing, Wood said it could provide Trump and the Federal Reserve with leeway to enact pro-growth policies.

“We are worried about a recession” — Cathie Wood

Although US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent isn’t worried about a recession, Wood is certainly preparing for that possibility.

Speaking virtually at the Digital Asset Summit in New York, Wood implied that the White House could be underestimating the recession risk facing the economy as a result of Trump’s latest tariff war.

“We are worried about a recession,” Wood said. “We think the velocity of money is slowing down dramatically.”

A slowdown in the velocity of money means capital is changing hands less frequently as consumers and businesses reduce spending. Such conditions usually signify the onset of a recession.

However, recessionary forces could end up being a boon for risk assets like crypto as declining GDP should give “the president and the Fed many more degrees of freedom to do what they want in terms of tax cuts and monetary policy,” said Wood.

Cathie Wood tells the Digital Asset Summit that the threat of recession is building. Source: Cointelegraph

US stablecoin bill is “imminent” — Bo Hines

The US could have comprehensive stablecoin legislation in as little as two months, according to Bo Hines, the recently appointed executive director of Trump’s Presidential Council of Advisers on Digital Assets.

Speaking at the Digital Asset Summit in New York, Hines lauded the Senate Banking Committee’s bipartisan approval of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act, also known as the GENIUS Act.

“We saw that vote come out of the Senate Banking Committee in extremely bipartisan fashion, […] which was fantastic to see,” Hines said.

The GENIUS Act seeks to establish clear guidelines for US stablecoin issuers, including collateralization requirements and compliance rules with Anti-Money Laundering laws.

“I think our colleagues on the other side of the aisle also recognize the importance for US dominance in this space, and they’re willing to work with us here, and that’s what’s really exciting about this,” said Hines.

Bo Hines says US stablecoin legislation could arrive on President Donald Trump’s desk in two months. Source: Cointelegraph

Ethena Labs, Securitize launch DeFi-focused blockchain

Ethena Labs and Securitize are launching a new blockchain designed to boost retail and institutional adoption of DeFi products and tokenized assets.

The new blockchain, called Converge, is an Ethereum Virtual Machine that will offer retail investors access to “standard DeFi applications” and specialize in institutional-grade offerings to bridge traditional finance and decentralized applications. Converge will also allow users to stake Ethena’s native governance token, ENA.

Converge will also leverage Securitize’s RWA infrastructure. The company has minted nearly $2 billion in tokenized RWAs across various blockchains, including the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund, which was initially launched on Ethereum and has since expanded to Aptos, Arbitrum, Avalanche, Optimism and Polygon.

Canary Capital files for Sui ETF

Canary Capital has submitted its Form S-1 filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list an exchange-traded fund tied to Sui (SUI), the native token of the layer-1 blockchain used for staking and fees.

The March 17 filing underscores the race to expand institutional access to digital assets following the overwhelming success of the spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs last year. Canary Capital has so far filed six crypto ETF proposals with the SEC.

Sui is the 22nd largest crypto asset by market capitalization, with a total value of $7.5 billion, according to CoinGecko. The Sui blockchain recently partnered with World Liberty Financial, the DeFi company backed by Trump’s family.

Crypto Biz is your weekly pulse on the business behind blockchain and crypto, delivered directly to your inbox every Thursday.

Coin Market

Bitcoin price has 75% chance of hitting new highs in 2025 — Analyst

Published

47 minutes ago

March 25, 2025

Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson maintains his optimistic outlook for BTC (BTC), suggesting that there is a 75% chance that the asset will hit new highs in the next nine months.

In a March 25 X post, Peterson highlighted BTC’s current position near the lower bound of its historical range. The analyst emphasized that Bitcoin’s current path aligns with the bottom 25% threshold, giving it majority odds for a positive rally.

Bitcoin 10-year seasonality chart. Source: X.com

Peterson said,

“Here is a 50% chance it will gain 50%+ in the short term.”

Peterson’s statements follow an earlier study that found that most of Bitcoin’s annual bullish performance occurred in April and October, which have averaged 12.98% and 21.98%, respectively, over the past decade.

Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: CoinGlass

Bitcoin onchain cost basis zone key investors’ levels

In a recent quicktake post on CryptoQuant, anonymous analyst Crazzyblockk said that the realized price for short-term whales is $91,000, whereas most highly active addresses hold a cost basis between $84,000 and $85,000.

Bitcoin short-term whales position. Source: CryptoQuant

A dip below the cost basis could trigger selling, making the $84,000 to $85,000 range a critical liquidity zone.

The analyst added,

“These onchain cost basis levels represent decision zones where market psychology shifts. Traders and investors should closely monitor price reactions in these areas to gauge trend strength and potential reversals.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Coin Market

FDIC moves to eradicate 'reputational risk' category from bank exams

Published

47 minutes ago

March 25, 2025

The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, an independent agency of the federal government, is reportedly moving to stop using the “reputational risk” category as a way to supervise banks.

According to a letter sent by the agency’s acting chairman, Travis Hill, to Rep. Dan Meuser on March 24, banking regulators should not use “reputational risk” to scrutinize firms.

“While a bank’s reputation is critically important, most activities that could threaten a bank’s reputation do so through traditional risk channels (e.g., credit risk, market risk, etc.) that supervisors already focus on,” notes the letter, first reported by Politico.

According to the document, the FDIC has completed a “review of all mentions of reputational risk” in its regulations and policy documents and has “plans to eradicate this concept from our regulatory approach.”

Reputational risk and debanking

The Federal Reserve defines reputational risk as “the potential that negative publicity regarding an institution’s business practices, whether true or not, will cause a decline in the customer base, costly litigation, or revenue reductions.”

The FIDC letter specifically mentioned digital assets, with Hill noting that the agency has generally been “closed for business” for institutions interested in blockchain or distributed ledger technology. Now, as per the document, the FDIC is working on a new direction for digital asset policy aiming at providing banks a way to engage with digital assets.

The letter was sent in response to a February communication from Meuser and other lawmakers with recommendations for digital asset rules and ways to prevent debanking.

Industries deemed as “risky” to banks often face significant challenges in establishing or maintaining banking relationships. The crypto industry faced such challenges during what became known as Operation Chokepoint 2.0.

The unofficial Operation led to more than 30 technology and cryptocurrency companies being denied banking services in the US after the collapse of crypto-friendly banks earlier in 2023.

Coin Market

Bitcoin sellers lurk in $88K to $90K zone — Is this week’s BTC rally losing steam?

Published

2 hours ago

March 25, 2025

Many Bitcoin (BTC) traders became bullish this week as prices rallied deep into the $88,000 level, but failure to overcome this level in the short term could be a take-profit signal.

Alphractal, a crypto analytics platform, noted that Bitcoin whales have entered short positions at the $88,000 level.

In a recent X post, the platform highlighted that the “Whale Position Sentiment” metric exhibited a sharp reversal in the chart, indicating that major players with a bearish bias have stepped. The metric defines the relationship between the aggregated open interest and trades larger than $1 million across multiple exchanges.

Bitcoin: Whale position sentiment. Source: X

As illustrated in the chart, the two circled regions are synonymous with Bitcoin price falling to the $88,000 level. Alphractal said,

“When the Whale Position Sentiment starts to decline, even if the price temporarily rises, it is a strong signal that whales are entering short positions, which may lead to a price drop.”

Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson also confirmed that whales had closed their long positions and that prices have historically moved according to their directional bias.

Bitcoin: Bull score signals. Source: CryptoQuant

Similarly, 8 out of 10 onchain signals on CryptoQuant have turned bearish. As highlighted above, with the exception of the stablecoin liquidity and technical signal indicators, all the other metrics flash red, underlining the likelihood of a possible pullback in Bitcoin price.

Last week, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, noted that the markets were entering a bear market and that investors should expect “6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”

Bitcoin outflows reach $424M in 7 days

While onchain metrics turned red, some investors exhibited confidence in Bitcoin. Data from IntoTheBlock highlighted net BTC outflows of $220 million from exchanges over the past 24 hours. The sum reached $424 million between March 18 to March 24. This trend implies that certain holders are accumulating.

Bitcoin net outflows by IntoTheBlock. Source: X

On the lower time frame (LTF) chart, Bitcoin formed an intraday high at $88,752 on March 24, but since then, BTC has yet to establish a new intraday high.

Bitcoin 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

With Bitcoin moving within the trendlines of an ascending channel pattern, it’s expected that the price will face resistance from the upper range of the pattern and 50-day, 100-day, exponential moving averages on the daily chart.

With whales possibly shorting between $88,000 and $90,000, Bitcoin needs to close above $90,000 for a continued rally to $100,000.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.