Coin Market

Ethereum open interest hits new all-time high — Will ETH price follow?

Published

4 days ago

March 21, 2025

Ether (ETH) price dropped 6% between March 19 and March 21 after failing to break the $2,050 resistance level. More notably, ETH has fallen 28% since Feb. 21, underperforming the broader crypto market, which declined 14% over the same period.

Despite ETH’s price struggles, Ether futures open interest hit a record high on March 21. This has led traders to question whether large investors are positioning for a potential rally toward $2,400 while also raising concerns about the risks of cascading liquidations due to heightened leverage.

Ether futures aggregate open interest, ETH. Source: CoinGlass

The aggregate open interest in Ether futures rose 15% over two weeks, hitting a record 10.23 million ETH on March 21. Binance, Gate.io, and Bitget collectively dominate 51% of the market, while the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) holds 9% of ETH open interest, according to CoinGlass data. This contrasts with Bitcoin futures, where CME leads with a 24% market share.

Demand for leveraged ETH longs has declined

The increased activity in ETH futures contracts typically indicates institutional investors’ interest, as open interest measures the demand for leverage. However, buyers (longs) and sellers (shorts) are always matched, so an increase in open interest does not inherently indicate a positive outlook.

To gauge whether buyers are seeking more leverage, analysts should compare ETH futures monthly contract prices to spot exchange rates. In neutral markets, these derivatives typically trade 5% to 10% higher on an annualized basis to account for the extended settlement period. If traders turn bearish, this premium would likely drop below that range.

Ether futures 2-month annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

The annualized premium for ETH monthly futures dropped to below 4% on March 21, down from 5% two weeks earlier. This decline in the futures premium suggests reduced incentives for traders to use the “cash and carry” strategy, which involves selling futures contracts while simultaneously buying spot ETH to capture the premium as a fixed-income trade.

Spot ETF outflows and reduced network fees pressure ETH price

Part of Ether’s decline stems from weak demand for US-based Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which saw $307 million in net outflows over the two weeks ending March 20. The macroeconomic environment has also dampened investor confidence, as economists warn of rising recession risks due to global tariff wars, inflationary pressures, and US government spending cuts, according to the Boston Globe.

However, some analysts argue that Ether’s recent price weakness stems from an imbalance between network fees—required to compensate validators—and the interests of decentralized applications (DApps) and layer-2 scaling solutions. This critique was perfectly summarized by Martin Köppelmann, co-founder of Gnosis.

Source: koeppelmann

In a sense, Ethereum’s successful shift to proof-of-stake and the introduction of blob space to enhance scalability through rollups—while significantly boosting the network’s capabilities—are also seen as factors limiting Ether’s price growth. Despite the low transaction costs of its layer-2 solutions, some ETH investors believe they are not being adequately rewarded.

Ether’s price has faced pressure from rising macroeconomic risks, while demand for DApps continues to decline—whether due to increased competition or waning investor interest. Ethereum’s 7-day base layer revenue fell to $605,000 on March 17, a sharp drop from $2.5 million just two weeks earlier.

There is no indication that the surge in ETH futures open interest is driven by bullish positioning. On the contrary, demand for leveraged long positions remains notably weak, suggesting cautious market sentiment.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Coin Market

Bitcoin price has 75% chance of hitting new highs in 2025 — Analyst

Published

34 minutes ago

March 25, 2025

Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson maintains his optimistic outlook for BTC (BTC), suggesting that there is a 75% chance that the asset will hit new highs in the next nine months.

In a March 25 X post, Peterson highlighted BTC’s current position near the lower bound of its historical range. The analyst emphasized that Bitcoin’s current path aligns with the bottom 25% threshold, giving it majority odds for a positive rally.

Bitcoin 10-year seasonality chart. Source: X.com

Peterson said,

“Here is a 50% chance it will gain 50%+ in the short term.”

Peterson’s statements follow an earlier study that found that most of Bitcoin’s annual bullish performance occurred in April and October, which have averaged 12.98% and 21.98%, respectively, over the past decade.

Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: CoinGlass

Bitcoin onchain cost basis zone key investors’ levels

In a recent quicktake post on CryptoQuant, anonymous analyst Crazzyblockk said that the realized price for short-term whales is $91,000, whereas most highly active addresses hold a cost basis between $84,000 and $85,000.

Bitcoin short-term whales position. Source: CryptoQuant

A dip below the cost basis could trigger selling, making the $84,000 to $85,000 range a critical liquidity zone.

The analyst added,

“These onchain cost basis levels represent decision zones where market psychology shifts. Traders and investors should closely monitor price reactions in these areas to gauge trend strength and potential reversals.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Coin Market

FDIC moves to eradicate 'reputational risk' category from bank exams

Published

34 minutes ago

March 25, 2025

The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, an independent agency of the federal government, is reportedly moving to stop using the “reputational risk” category as a way to supervise banks.

According to a letter sent by the agency’s acting chairman, Travis Hill, to Rep. Dan Meuser on March 24, banking regulators should not use “reputational risk” to scrutinize firms.

“While a bank’s reputation is critically important, most activities that could threaten a bank’s reputation do so through traditional risk channels (e.g., credit risk, market risk, etc.) that supervisors already focus on,” notes the letter, first reported by Politico.

According to the document, the FDIC has completed a “review of all mentions of reputational risk” in its regulations and policy documents and has “plans to eradicate this concept from our regulatory approach.”

Reputational risk and debanking

The Federal Reserve defines reputational risk as “the potential that negative publicity regarding an institution’s business practices, whether true or not, will cause a decline in the customer base, costly litigation, or revenue reductions.”

The FIDC letter specifically mentioned digital assets, with Hill noting that the agency has generally been “closed for business” for institutions interested in blockchain or distributed ledger technology. Now, as per the document, the FDIC is working on a new direction for digital asset policy aiming at providing banks a way to engage with digital assets.

The letter was sent in response to a February communication from Meuser and other lawmakers with recommendations for digital asset rules and ways to prevent debanking.

Industries deemed as “risky” to banks often face significant challenges in establishing or maintaining banking relationships. The crypto industry faced such challenges during what became known as Operation Chokepoint 2.0.

The unofficial Operation led to more than 30 technology and cryptocurrency companies being denied banking services in the US after the collapse of crypto-friendly banks earlier in 2023.

Coin Market

Bitcoin sellers lurk in $88K to $90K zone — Is this week’s BTC rally losing steam?

Published

2 hours ago

March 25, 2025

Many Bitcoin (BTC) traders became bullish this week as prices rallied deep into the $88,000 level, but failure to overcome this level in the short term could be a take-profit signal.

Alphractal, a crypto analytics platform, noted that Bitcoin whales have entered short positions at the $88,000 level.

In a recent X post, the platform highlighted that the “Whale Position Sentiment” metric exhibited a sharp reversal in the chart, indicating that major players with a bearish bias have stepped. The metric defines the relationship between the aggregated open interest and trades larger than $1 million across multiple exchanges.

Bitcoin: Whale position sentiment. Source: X

As illustrated in the chart, the two circled regions are synonymous with Bitcoin price falling to the $88,000 level. Alphractal said,

“When the Whale Position Sentiment starts to decline, even if the price temporarily rises, it is a strong signal that whales are entering short positions, which may lead to a price drop.”

Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson also confirmed that whales had closed their long positions and that prices have historically moved according to their directional bias.

Bitcoin: Bull score signals. Source: CryptoQuant

Similarly, 8 out of 10 onchain signals on CryptoQuant have turned bearish. As highlighted above, with the exception of the stablecoin liquidity and technical signal indicators, all the other metrics flash red, underlining the likelihood of a possible pullback in Bitcoin price.

Last week, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, noted that the markets were entering a bear market and that investors should expect “6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”

Bitcoin outflows reach $424M in 7 days

While onchain metrics turned red, some investors exhibited confidence in Bitcoin. Data from IntoTheBlock highlighted net BTC outflows of $220 million from exchanges over the past 24 hours. The sum reached $424 million between March 18 to March 24. This trend implies that certain holders are accumulating.

Bitcoin net outflows by IntoTheBlock. Source: X

On the lower time frame (LTF) chart, Bitcoin formed an intraday high at $88,752 on March 24, but since then, BTC has yet to establish a new intraday high.

Bitcoin 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

With Bitcoin moving within the trendlines of an ascending channel pattern, it’s expected that the price will face resistance from the upper range of the pattern and 50-day, 100-day, exponential moving averages on the daily chart.

With whales possibly shorting between $88,000 and $90,000, Bitcoin needs to close above $90,000 for a continued rally to $100,000.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.