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Bitfinex Bitcoin longs hit 6-month high — Will BTC price follow?

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Bullish Bitcoin (BTC) positions using leverage on the Bitfinex exchange surged to their highest level in nearly six months, reaching 80,333 BTC on March 20—equivalent to $6.92 billion. The 27.5% increase in Bitcoin margin longs since Feb. 20 has fueled speculation that the 12.5% BTC price gain from the $76,700 low on March 11 is driven by leverage and may not be sustainable.

Bitfinex BTC margin longs, BTC. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

However, Bitcoin’s price does not always move in tandem with bullish leveraged positions on Bitfinex. For example, in the three weeks ending July 12, 2024, large investors added 13,620 BTC in margin longs, yet Bitcoin’s price fell from $65,500 to $58,000. Similarly, a two-week-long increase of 8,990 BTC in margin longs took place leading into Sept. 11, 2024, and this coincided with a price decline from $60,000.

Bitcoin margin traders are highly profitable but also risk-tolerant

In the long term, these savvy investors have timed the market well, as Bitcoin’s price eventually surpassed $88,000 in November 2024, while margin long positions were reduced by 30% by year-end. Essentially, these traders are highly profitable but exhibit a much higher risk tolerance and patience than the average investor. Therefore, an increase in leverage demand does not necessarily translate into upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

Additionally, the cost of borrowing Bitcoin remains relatively low, creating opportunities for market-neutral arbitrage as traders capitalize on cheap interest rates. Currently, borrowing BTC for 60 days on Bitfinex carries an annualized cost of 3.14%, while the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures stands at 4.5%. In theory, traders can exploit this spread through ‘cash and carry’ arbitrage, profiting without direct exposure to price fluctuations.

Even if one assumes that most of the $1.48 billion in margin longs are not arbitrage trades—meaning these large investors are genuinely betting on Bitcoin’s price appreciation—other exchanges may have offset part of this move. For instance, demand for Bitcoin margin longs has declined significantly on OKX over the same 30-day period.

Bitcoin margin long-to-short ratio at OKX. Source: OKX

The Bitcoin long-to-short margin ratio on OKX currently shows longs outweighing shorts by a factor of 15, the lowest level in over three months. Historically, excessive confidence has driven this ratio above 40, most recently in late February when Bitcoin’s price surged past $105,000. Conversely, a ratio below 5 typically signals a strong bearish sentiment.

Bitcoin options price balances risks of upside and downside fluctuations in BTC price

To rule out external factors limited to margin markets, one should also analyze Bitcoin options. If traders anticipate a correction, demand for put (sell) options will rise, pushing the 25% delta skew above 6%. Conversely, during bullish periods, this metric typically falls below -6%.

Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call). Source: Laevitas.ch

Between March 10 and March 18, the Bitcoin options market showed signs of bearish sentiment but has since shifted to a neutral stance. This suggests that whales and market makers are pricing similar risks for both upward and downward price movements. Given the margin market trends on OKX and the current pricing of BTC options, a Bitcoin bull run is far from a consensus expectation.

Bitcoin’s lack of bullish momentum can partly be attributed to the higher inflation outlook and weaker economic growth projections presented by the US Federal Reserve on March 19. Concerns over a potential recession, exacerbated by a global tariff war, have made investors more risk-averse. As a result, even though whales are increasing their exposure through Bitcoin margin longs, overall market sentiment remains subdued.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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eToro trading platform publicly files for US IPO

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Cryptocurrency-friendly trading platform eToro has filed for an initial public offering (IPO) in the United States following several previous attempts.

The company said in a March 24 announcement that it had submitted a registration statement on Form F-1 with the US Securities and Exchange Commission related to the IPO of its Class A common shares.

EToro has applied to list its Class A common shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker symbol “ETOR,” according to the announcement, which stated:

“A registration statement on Form F-1 relating to these securities has been filed with the SEC but has not yet become effective.”

eToro public IPO announcement. Source: eToro

The public filing comes over two months after eToro made confidential filings to the SEC in a move toward a potential IPO in New York, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 16.

Submitted in January, eToro’s IPO filing may value the business at more than $5 billion and list the platform as soon as the second quarter of 2025, the report noted, citing unidentified sources familiar with the matter.

Trading platforms such as eToro are often used by beginning investors looking to buy their first stock shares or cryptocurrency, thanks to their ease of use.

EToro’s IPO received attention from some of the world’s most notable investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, UBS and Citigroup, as lead managing bookmakers.

Related: Friday’s PCE inflation report may catalyze a Bitcoin April rally

EToro tried to go public in 2021 via SPAC offering

The crypto-friendly trading platform had multiple previous attempts to go public on the US stock exchange.

In 2021, eToro announced plans to go public via a merger with Fintech Acquisition Corp V, a special purpose acquisition company, valuing the company at $10.4 billion. However, the deal was terminated in mid-2022 due to unfavorable market conditions.

Related: Friday’s US inflation report may catalyze a Bitcoin April rally

Although the United Kingdom remains its largest market, eToro is pursuing a US listing to tap into a broader investor base.

“Very few of our global clients would trade UK shares,” eToro founder and CEO Yoni Assia reportedly said last year. He added:

“Something in the US market creates a pool of both deep liquidity and deep awareness for those assets that are trading in the US.”

In 2023, eToro raised $250 million in a funding round that valued the brokerage at $3.5 billion. The business may now be valued at more than $5 billion in its upcoming IPO, said one of the people familiar with the flotation plans.

According to Forbes, eToro was one of the first regulated trading platforms in Europe to offer Bitcoin (BTC) services in 2013, just a few years after the first BTC transaction was made in January 2009.

Magazine: Trump’s Bitcoin policy lashed in China, deepfake scammers busted: Asia Express

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BlackRock’s BUIDL expands to Solana as tokenized money market fund nears $2B

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BlackRock’s tokenized money market fund has expanded to the Solana blockchain as its market capitalization approaches the $2 billion mark.

On March 25, Carlos Domingo, the founder and CEO of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization platform Securitize, welcomed the Solana network to the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL). This marked the tokenized money market fund’s expansion to another blockchain network. 

BlackRock launched BUIDL in March 2024 in partnership with Securitize. In a Fortune report, Securitize chief operating officer Michael Sonnenshein said the fund aims to make offchain assets “unboring.” 

The executive said they are advancing some of the deficiencies of money markets in their traditional formats. 

BlackRock’s BUIDL at $1.7 billion market cap

RWA data platform rwa.xyz shows that BlackRock and Securitize’s BUIDL leads the Tokenized United States Treasurys in market capitalization. The platform’s data shows that the fund has a market capitalization of $1.7 billion and a nearly 34% market share. 

BlackRock’s BUIDL reached a $1.7 billion market cap. Source: RWA.xyz

BUIDL dominates the Tokenized US Treasurys list as the leading asset in its class. The tokenized product is followed by Hashnote, Franklin Templeton and Ondo USDY. 

The fund has experienced significant growth in just seven months. In July 2024, BUIDL’s market capitalization first reached $500 million. Its current market capitalization represents 240% growth since July. 

BUIDL’s price is pegged to the US dollar and pays daily accrued dividends to investors each month through its Securitize partnership. As of August 2024, the fund had paid its holders $7 million in dividends. 

Related: Frax community approves frxUSD stablecoin backed by BlackRock’s BUIDL

BUIDL’s Solana expansion comes over 1 year since launch

The tokenized product’s expansion into the Solana ecosystem comes months after the product started to go multichain.

On Nov. 13, the tokenized money market fund, which was initially launched on the Ethereum network, expanded to Aptos, Arbitrum, Avalanche, Optimism and Polygon. The chain expansion was expected to attract more investors to the product. 

While tokenized Treasurys have expanded to other blockchains, Ethereum continues to dominate the asset class. According to RWA.xyz, Ethereum-based treasuries have a market capitalization of $3.6 billion, 72% of the market. 

Tokenized treasuries market capitalization by blockchain. Source: RWA.xyz

Magazine: Memecoins are ded — But Solana ‘100x better’ despite revenue plunge

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Bitcoin mining supplier Auradine sees opportunity in Trump policies

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US President Donald Trump’s trade war with China and efforts to ramp up on-shore Bitcoin mining will be a boon for US mining rig manufacturers, which currently only hold a small sliver of market share compared to their major Chinese counterparts. 

The United States accounts for over 40% of the Bitcoin network’s global hashrate but still leans heavily on China-made mining rigs. China-based Bitmain reportedly holds as much as a 90% market share in the Bitcoin mining manufacturing market. 

“Trump’s continued focus to support the US BTC mining industry highlights the urgent need to address US reliance on foreign technology,” Auradine’s chief strategy officer, Sanjay Gupta, told Cointelegraph in a recent interview. 

US Bitcoin firms hit a major supply problem last year, with thousands of Bitcoin (BTC) miners held at ports of entry by the US Customs and Border Protection

One of the firms affected believed it was due to a mistaken belief that the chips were illegally imported Chinese radio frequency devices. It took months before they started being released. 

Gupta said that US-China trade tensions have also disrupted the flow of foreign Bitcoin miners. 

“These trade tensions have increased supply chain disruptions with many hardware shipments facing delays and uncertainties,” Gupta said.

The US was already competing with China to win the high-end chip manufacturing market, but the recent trade tensions have only “intensified” these challenges for US-based crypto miners, he added. 

China-based Bitmain is said to hold the majority of the Bitcoin mining manufacturing market. It expanded its production line into the US last December to improve supply chain efficiency.

Gupta said his firm could also stand well-positioned amid Trump’s plan to ramp up onshore manufacturing as a “dramatic increase in demand” for electricity would, in turn, “put a tremendous deal of pressure on the electric grid” — making it more important for Bitcoin miners to operate off-grid. 

Auradine recently announced the launch of its new Teraflux AH3880 hydro-cooled Bitcoin miner, competing with the likes of Bitmain, MicroBT and Canaan.

Related: Bitcoin mining hashprice stays flat despite higher difficulty: Report

Asked whether a further uptick in Bitcoin mining activity in the US could hurt Bitcoin decentralization, Gupta said that securing the Bitcoin network with more energy-efficient solutions in the US would be a “net positive” for Bitcoin but said there could be risks if the increase outpaces technology in sustainability and decentralization. 

Over 95% of the network’s hash power already comes from the US and China alone, according to the Hashrate Index.

Magazine: Korea to lift corporate crypto ban, beware crypto mining HDs: Asia Express

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