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The fallacy of scalability — why layer 2s won’t save crypto

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Opinion by: Dan Hughes, founder of Radix 

Crypto has spent years betting on layer-2 (L2) solutions as its magic bullet for fixing issues with scalability. What if they’re the very thing putting us at risk?

Instead of paving the way for mass adoption, this fixation has created a tangled web of rollups, bridges and fragmented liquidity, threatening blockchain’s core principles of decentralization and security. The dream of a seamless, decentralized network is fading, overshadowed by a complex system that echoes the inefficiencies and centralization of the traditional financial world. Are we scaling innovation or just recreating the past?

The blockchain trilemma

L2s were supposed to mitigate the blockchain trilemma. Yet, while they may fill the gaps at the individual level, as a movement, L2 solutions have put crypto at risk of losing all three.

The growing mass of L2s has led to a highly fractured ecosystem that’s difficult to navigate and relies on complex rollups and bridging solutions. This has led to parts of the ecosystem centralizing, drawing assets into fragmented liquidity silos, hindering security and stifling competition for smaller projects. 

These “solutions” have introduced large-scale friction and have also brought unnecessary security risks. While bridge-related hacks have become much less common in the last two years, hackers will always find new ways to balance the books — exploiting rollups, channels and sidechains. 

Many L2s’ reliance on sequencers or trusted validators creates additional cracks in the armor, single points of failure, while siloed liquidity reduces validator availability for smaller L2s, threatening network resilience.

These solutions also leave an immense technical challenge for developers building applications hoping to integrate with L2s, requiring in-depth and specific knowledge of the mechanics of each L2 the application may need to touch.

L2 proponents argue that these trade-offs are necessary and easily overcome, but there are even more fundamental issues here than sacrificing security, scalability or liquidity. 

Recent: AI has had its Cambrian moment — Blockchain’s is yet to come

Crypto’s endgame is a universal network where any asset or decentralized application can instantly interact with any other in a trustless, secure way. The friction that L2s introduce, however, sabotages this instant interoperability, while the centralization of sequencers and validators undermines the fundamentals of a trustless system. It is not just that this stymies scalability in decentralized finance (DeFi), but rather that it leads toward scaling something completely different, recreating the inefficiencies of the existing siloed, fragmented and middle-man-infested TradFi system.

If the goal of DeFi is to move all financial activity onchain, it is imperative to do better than what we already have. 

Building the foundations

Crypto needs to build from the foundations up. Instead of outsourcing scalability and security, blockchain networks must prioritize them at layer 1.

Sharding offers a clear path forward, but the industry must set higher goals and build a long-term solution rather than just a quick fix to “band-aid” the immediate scalability problem of the day. It is not just about increasing the shard count; it is how we shard. The Beacon Chain just adds a bottleneck, and dynamic sharding is complicated, limiting scalability with massive overheads. Even intra-validator sharding seems to solve all of these problems until you reach resource saturation on the network-facing node, which has to ingest all transactions, simply kicking the can down the road in search of more validators and diminishing returns.

The obvious solution for scaling DeFi to the same capabilities as TradFi is state sharding, which is the state of the blockchain distributed across many different shards. Transactions that involve states from different shards create a temporary consensus process. 

The validators responsible for the transaction state communicate, agree (or not), and update the state atomically in all relevant shards. This allows transactions to be processed in parallel across multiple shards and even within shards themselves, leaving a shard’s only concern that the transactions modifying the state for which they are responsible do not have intersecting dependencies, significantly increasing throughput without compromising decentralization or accessibility. 

When these shards are integrated with atomic commitment, if any part of the transaction fails, everything aborts cleanly, and there’s no work needed to untangle hanging state changes.

This is just one solution. DeFi will scale to onboard the planet. It is just a question of how soon and by what means. That said, solutions that focus on the fundamentals of L1 development rather than relying on a patchwork of L2s will eliminate fragmentation, reduce complexity, and ensure scalability and accessibility are again at the heart of blockchain networks. It comes down to the future that developers want to prioritize — tokenomics or the founding promises of Web3 — decentralization, efficiency and security. 

Scaling for the future

L1 solutions are solutions for everybody. They secure the very foundation of the ecosystem for developers, traders, general users and even several billion prospective users. Without resilient and scalable architecture in the foundations, one strong push is all it will take to cause this house of cards to collapse. Of course, specific use cases might be better with L2 solutions. A high-frequency trade settlement is a perfect example, but exceptions never prove the rule. From a whole-ecosystem perspective, developers must focus on integrated, native scalability solutions instead of just adding complexity and balancing more precarious “solutions” on top. Without adequately attending to the L1, nothing but problems await.

Opinion by: Dan Hughes, founder of Radix.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Wall Street’s one-day loss tops the entire crypto market cap

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The United States stock market lost more in value over the April 4 trading day than the entire cryptocurrency market is worth, as fears over US President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to ramp up.

On April 4, the US stock market lost $3.25 trillion — around $570 billion more than the entire crypto market’s $2.68 trillion valuation at the time of publication.

Nasdaq 100 is now “in a bear market”

Among the Magnificent-7 stocks, Tesla (TSLA) led the losses on the day with a 10.42% drop, followed by Nvidia (NVDA) down 7.36% and Apple (AAPL) falling 7.29%, according to TradingView data.

The significant decline across the board signals that the Nasdaq 100 is now “in a bear market” after falling 6% across the trading day, trading resource account The Kobeissi Letter said in an April 4 X post. This is the largest daily decline since March 16, 2020.

“US stocks have now erased a massive -$11 TRILLION since February 19 with recession odds ABOVE 60%,” it added. The Kobessi Letter said Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement was “historic” and if the tariffs continue, a recession will be “impossible to avoid.”

Source: Anthony Scaramucci

On April 2, Trump signed an executive order establishing reciprocal tariffs on trading partners and a 10% baseline tariff on all imports from all countries.

Trump said the reciprocal tariffs will be roughly half the rate US trading partners impose on American goods.

Related: Bitcoin bulls defend $80K support as ‘World War 3 of trade wars’ crushes US stocks

Meanwhile, the crypto industry has pointed out that while the stock market continues to decline, Bitcoin (BTC) remains stronger than most expected.

Crypto trader Plan Markus pointed out in an April 4 X post that while the entire stock market “is tanking,” Bitcoin is holding.

Source: Jeff Dorman

Even some crypto skeptics have pointed out the contrast between Bitcoin’s performance and the US stock market during the recent period of macro uncertainty.

Stock market commentator Dividend Hero told his 203,200 X followers that he has “hated on Bitcoin in the past, but seeing it not tank while the stock market does is very interesting to me.”

Meanwhile, technical trader Urkel said Bitcoin “doesn’t appear to care one bit about tariff wars and markets tanking.” Bitcoin is trading at $83,749 at the time of publication, down 0.16% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple a ‘bad actor’ with no crypto legal precedent set

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SEC paints 'a distorted picture' of USD-stablecoin market — Crenshaw

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US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner and vocal crypto critic Caroline Crenshaw has accused the US regulator of downplaying risks and misrepresenting the US stablecoin market in its newly published guidelines.

However, many in the crypto industry see the SEC’s decision as a step in the right direction.

In an April 4 statement, Crenshaw, who is widely known for opposing the spot Bitcoin ETFs, said that the SEC’s statement on stablecoins contained “legal and factual errors that paint a distorted picture of the USD-stablecoin market that drastically understates its risks.”

Crenshaw disagrees, crypto industry applauds

Under the new SEC guidelines, stablecoins that meet certain criteria are now considered “non-securities” and are exempt from transaction reporting requirements.

Crenshaw disputed the accuracy of the analysis made by the SEC in arriving at that decision. She pushed back on the SEC for reiterating issuer actions “that supposedly stabilize price, ensure redeemability, and otherwise reduce risk.”

Source: David Sacks

The SEC said that “albeit briefly, that some USD-stablecoins are available to retail purchasers only through an intermediary and not directly from the issuer.”

Crenshaw argued this was misleading. She said:

“It is the general rule, not the exception, that these coins are available to the retail public only through intermediaries who sell them on the secondary market, such as crypto trading platforms.”

“Over 90% of USD-stablecoins in circulation are distributed in this way,” Crenshaw added.

Meanwhile, many in the crypto industry expressed optimism over the decision.

Token Metrics founder Ian Ballina said it “feels like a clear step in focusing on what really matters in the crypto space.”

Crypto industry says positive step, just late

Vemanti CEO Tan Tran said he wished the SEC reached this point three years ago, while Midnight Network’s head of partnerships Ian Kane said it “feels like progress for crypto folks trying to play by the rules.”

Crenshaw said it is “also grossly inaccurate” for the SEC to reassure users that an issuer can handle unlimited redemptions just because its reserves match or exceed the value of the supply.

Related: Stablecoins’ in bull market’; Solana sputters: VanEck

“The issuer’s overall financial health and solvency cannot be judged by the value of its reserve, which tells us nothing about its liabilities, risk from proprietary financial activities, and so forth,” Crenshaw said.

She explained that stablecoins always carry some risk, particularly during market downturns.

It comes only weeks after stablecoin issuer Tether was reportedly engaging with a Big Four accounting firm to audit its assets reserve and verify that its USDT stablecoin is backed at a 1:1 ratio.

On March 22, Cointelegraph reported that Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said the audit process would be more straightforward under pro-crypto US President Donald Trump.

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple a ‘bad actor’ with no crypto legal precedent set

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Bitcoin traders prepare for rally to $100K as ‘decoupling’ and ‘gold leads BTC’ trend takes shape

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Bitcoin (BTC) price could head back toward the $100,000 level quicker than investors expected if the early signs of its decoupling from the US stock market and gold continue.

Source: Cory Bates / X

The “gold leads, Bitcoin follows” relationship is starting

Bitcoin has shrugged off the market jitters caused by US President Donald Trump’s April 2 global tariff announcement.

While BTC initially dropped over 3% to around $82,500, it eventually rebounded by roughly 4.5% to cross $84,700. In contrast, the S&P 500 plunged 10.65% this week, and gold—after hitting a record $3,167 on April 3—has slipped 4.8%.

BTC/USD vs. gold and S&P 500 daily performance chart. Source: TradingView

The fresh divergence is fueling the “gold-leads-Bitcoin narrative,” taking cues from price trends from late 2018 through mid-2019 to predict a strong price recovery toward $100,000.

Gold began a steady ascent, gaining nearly 15% by mid-2019, while Bitcoin remained largely flat. Bitcoin’s breakout followed shortly after, rallying over 170% in early 2019 and then surging another 344% by late 2020.

BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

“A reclaim of $100k would imply a handoff from gold to BTC,” said market analyst MacroScope, adding:

“As in previous cycles, this would open the door to a new period of huge outperformance by BTC over gold and other assets.

The outlook aligned with Alpine Fox founder Mike Alfred, who shared an analysis from March 14, wherein he anticipated Bitcoin to grow 10 times or more than gold based on previous instances.

Source: Mike Alfred / X

Bitcoin-to-gold ratio warns of a bull trap

Bitcoin may be eyeing a drop toward $65,000, based on a bearish fractal playing out in the Bitcoin-to-gold (BTC/XAU) ratio.

The BTC/XAU ratio is flashing a familiar pattern that traders last saw in 2021. The breakdown followed a second major support test at the 50-2W exponential moving average.

BTC/XAU ratio two-week chart. Source: TradingView

BTC/XAU is now repeating this fractal and once again testing the red 50-EMA as support.

In the previous cycle, Bitcoin consolidated around the same EMA level before breaking decisively lower, eventually finding support at the 200-2W EMA (the blue wave). If history repeats, BTC/XAU could be on track for a deeper correction, especially if macro conditions worsen.

Interestingly, these breakdown cycles have coincided with a drop in Bitcoin’s value in dollar terms, as shown below.

BTC/USD 2W price chart. Source: TradingView

Should the fractal repeat, Bitcoin’s initial downside target could be its 50-2W EMA around the $65,000 level, with additional selloffs suggesting declines below $20,000, aligning with the 200-2W EMA.

A bounce from BTC/XAU’s 50-2W EMA, on the other hand, may invalidate the bearish fractal.

US recession would squash Bitcoin’s bullish outlook

From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin’s price outlook appears skewed to the downside.

Investors are concerned that President Donald Trump’s global tariff war could spiral into a full-blown trade war and trigger a US recession. Risk assets like Bitcoin tend to underperform during economic contractions.

Related: Bitcoin ‘decouples,’ stocks lose $3.5T amid Trump tariff war and Fed warning of ‘higher inflation’

Further dampening sentiment, on April 4, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.

Powell warned that inflation progress remains uneven, signaling a prolonged high-rate environment that may add more pressure to Bitcoin’s upside momentum.

Nonetheless, most bond traders see three consecutive rate cuts until the Fed’s September meeting, according to CME data.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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