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US recession would be a big catalyst for Bitcoin: BlackRock

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BlackRock’s head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick, says that Bitcoin will most likely thrive in a recessionary macro environment, contrary to what some analysts may think.

I don’t know if we’ll have a recession or not, but a recession would be a big catalyst for Bitcoin,” Mitchnick said in a March 19 interview with Yahoo Finance.

Mitchnick said Bitcoin (BTC) is catalyzed by increased fiscal spending, deficit accumulation, lower interest rates and monetary stimulus — all of which tend to happen in recessions.

“And it’s catalyzed to some extent over fears of general social disorder,” Mitchnick pointed out. “And that too, unfortunately, is something that can happen in a recession.”

🚨 LATEST: BlackRock Global Head of Digital Assets Robbie Mitchnick says, “If you look at Bitcoin fundamentally on a long-term basis, it really seems like an asset that should be uncorrelated or even inversely correlated against certain risk factors that exist.” pic.twitter.com/bC0zKqF3xB

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) March 19, 2025

The BlackRock executive said the market is “not particularly well calibrated” to Bitcoin, and many still view it as a risk-on asset.

Risk-on assets, such as stocks, commodities and high-yield bonds, tend to suffer during times of economic crises, but Mitchnick said in September that he believed the asset was mislabeled.

“But that’s where the opportunity comes in for education in a market and asset class that’s still very nascent.”

Mitchnick said BlackRock has been helping some of its clients see through some of these conflicting narratives.

He added that some of BlackRock’s more “sophisticated long-term Bitcoin accumulator” clients see the market correction as a buying opportunity and aren’t bothered by the current economic headwinds.

Meanwhile, researchers from cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase were less bullish, saying crypto’s positive outlook for the first quarter had “clearly been misplaced” by recession fears and the recent tariffs imposed.

“Fears of a dramatic US economic slowdown or even recession have caused sentiment to turn sharply,” Coinbase Institutional said in its monthly outlook report on March 17.

Related: Crypto market’s biggest risks in 2025: US recession, circular crypto economy

BlackRock has played a key role in the institutional and wealth advisory adoption of Bitcoin through its iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF — which holds the most net assets of any Bitcoin investment product at $48.7 billion.

Mitchnick isn’t worried about the mass net outflows across most spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds of late — pointing out that it has mostly come from hedge funds’ unwinding of the spot futures arbitrage trade, not the long-term buy-and-hold investors.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $86,000, up 3.8% over the last 24 hours.

Magazine: Meet lawyer Max Burwick — ‘The ambulance chaser of crypto’

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Coin Market

Bitcoin price recovery sets base for TON, AVAX, NEAR, OKB to rally

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Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are trying to make a comeback by maintaining the price above the 200-day simple moving average ($84,899) over the weekend. Bitget Research chief analyst Ryan Lee told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin needs to close above $85,000 this week to signal strength and “prevent a drop to $76,000.” Lee added that a close above $87,000 would give a clearer bullish confirmation.

Tariff wars have rocked both traditional markets and the cryptocurrency markets in the past few days. Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard believes the markets may remain under pressure until April 2. While speaking on Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction daily X show, Sondergaard said that if the tariffs get dropped, it could act as “the biggest driver at this moment.”

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

Although analysts remain bullish for the long term, some expect a short-term decline. Analyzing previous bear market declines, market analyst and author Timothy Peterson said in a post on X that the current bear market should only last for 90 days. The analyst anticipates a fall in the “next 30 days followed by a 20-40% rally sometime after April 15th.”

If Bitcoin starts a sustained recovery, several altcoins could follow suit. What are the top cryptocurrencies that look strong on the charts?

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin is struggling to rise and sustain above the 20-day exponential moving average ($85,246), but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

That increases the possibility of a break above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($90,469) and thereafter to $95,000.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below $81,000, it suggests that the bulls have given up. That could sink the pair to $80,000 and subsequently to $76,606. Buyers are expected to defend the $76,606 level because a break below it may deepen the correction. There is strong support at $73,777, but if the level falls, the next stop could be $67,000.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Both moving averages are flattish, but the relative strength index (RSI) has risen into the positive zone. That suggests the bullish momentum is picking up. The first sign of strength will be a close above $87,500. That could open the gates for a rise to $92,500 and later to $95,000.

The advantage will tilt in favor of the bears on a break and close below $80,000. That could sink the pair to solid support at $76,606.

Toncoin price analysis

Toncoin (TON) turned down from the $4 level on March 20, but the bulls have held the price above the moving averages.

TON/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover, and the RSI has jumped into the positive zone. That improves the prospects of a break above $4. If that happens, the TON/USDT pair could surge to $5.

This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA ($3.39). That could pull the pair to $2.81 and then to the solid support at $2.73.

TON/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The pair is taking support at the 20-EMA on the 4-hour chart, signaling that the bulls are buying the dips. However, the bears are unlikely to give up easily. They will fiercely defend the $3.80 to $4 overhead zone. Sellers will be back in command on a break and close below $3.28. That could start a fall toward $2.90.

On the upside, a break and close above $4 signals an advantage to the buyers. There is minor resistance at $4.14, but it is likely to be crossed. The pair may run toward $4.67.

Avalanche price analysis

Avalanche (AVAX) has been in a strong downtrend, but the positive divergence on the RSI suggests that the bearish momentum may be weakening.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The AVAX/USDT pair has been clinging to the 20-day EMA ($19.76), increasing the likelihood of a breakout. If that happens, the pair could climb to the 50-day SMA ($22.41) and subsequently to the $25.12 to $27.23 resistance zone. Such a move suggests that the downtrend could be ending.

On the other hand, the downtrend may resume if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below the $15.27 support. That could extend the decline to $11.

AVAX/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The pair has been trading inside a narrow range between $20.10 and $18.12 on the 4-hour chart. The 20-EMA is trying to move up, and the RSI is in the positive territory, giving a slight advantage to the bulls. If the price breaks above $20.10, the pair may ascend to $21.20 and then to $22.50.

Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below $18.12, it suggests that the bears are trying to retain control. The pair may slump to $16.95 and eventually to $15.27.

Related: Why is Bitcoin price stuck?

Near Protocol price analysis

Near Protocol (NEAR) has been in a strong downtrend, but it is showing early signs of starting a reversal.

NEAR/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The positive divergence on the RSI suggests that the bears are losing their grip. A break and close above the 50-day SMA ($3.05) could strengthen the bulls, opening the gates for a rally to $3.65. Sellers are expected to aggressively defend the $3.65 level, but if the bulls prevail, the NEAR/USDT pair may rise to $5.

Contrarily, if the price turns down and breaks below $2.48, it suggests that the bears remain in control. The pair could then drop to the solid support at $2.14.

NEAR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 4-hour chart has been trading above the 20-EMA, indicating that the bulls are holding on to their positions as they anticipate another leg higher. A break above $2.83 could start a move toward $3.25. Sellers are expected to defend the $3.25 level, but if the bulls pierce the resistance, the next stop could be $3.65.

This optimistic view will be negated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages. The pair may decline to $2.48 and, after that, to $2.34.

OKB price analysis

OKB (OKB) has been trading inside a descending channel pattern, indicating buying near the support line and selling close to the resistance line.

OKB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The OKB/USDT pair picked up momentum after breaking out of the 20-day EMA ($48.39) on March 14. The pair is facing selling near $$54, which could pull the price down to the 20-day EMA. A shallow pullback suggests that the bulls are not rushing to the exit, increasing the possibility of a rally to the resistance line.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price continues lower and breaks below the 50-day SMA ($47.56), it signals that the bears remain active at higher levels. The pair may then tumble to $45.

OKB/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Sellers are trying to pull the price below the 50-SMA on the 4-hour chart. If they succeed, it could weaken the bullish momentum. There is support at $48, but if the level breaks down, the pair could drop to $45.

Instead, a solid bounce off the 50-SMA suggests that the sentiment remains positive and bulls are buying on dips. The up move could resume above $54, opening the doors for a rally to the resistance line.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coin Market

Bitcoin 'in position' for first key RSI breakout in 6 months at $85K

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Bitcoin (BTC) circled $85,000 into the March 23 weekly close as excitement over a key trend change brewed.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin price meets decisive RSI setup

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD finding strength during weekend trading.

Up 1.5% on the day, Bitcoin edged higher as part of a broad crypto market uptick, which also lifted various major altcoins.

“I think this next week will be telling where the market wants to head for the next higher timeframe move,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in part of his latest X analysis, noting the closing position of CME Group’s Bitcoin futures.

BTC/USD 15-minute chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

The post echoed the broader market sentiment as traders eyed the potential for a fresh push higher into the monthly close.

Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital reiterated encouraging breakout signs on daily timeframes for Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI).

“The Daily RSI is showcasing early signs of retesting the Downtrend dating back to November 2024 as new support,” he reported.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Rekt Capital/X

For fellow analyst Matthew Hyland, however, current price levels held deeper significance.

For the first time in six months, he revealed on the day that BTC/USD was about to seal a key bullish RSI divergence on weekly timeframes.

“BTC can make weekly bullish divergence for the first time since September tonight,” he confirmed on X.

“Currently in position.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart with RSI data. Source: Matthew Hyland/X

Bull market to return in “a couple of weeks?”

Elsewhere, trading team Stockmoney Lizards shrugged off the idea that Bitcoin risked entering a long-term bear market.

Related: Here’s why Bitcoin price can’t go higher than $87.5K

The local bottom, it told X followers in its latest market analysis, lay at $76,000 — a level already revisited earlier this month.

“While many are panicking and declaring a bear market, the long-term trend channel (green lines) remains firmly intact,” it summarized alongside a chart showing BTC price fluctuations around an average trend line during bull markets.

“This correction doesn’t invalidate the uptrend – it confirms it.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Stockmoney Lizards/X

Stockmoney Lizards acknowledged that upside continuation may take some time.

“This test doesn’t guarantee an immediate pump, but history indicates we’re approaching a bottoming zone,” it concluded.

“How long does this take? Well, nobody knows. These days, news, macroeconomic signals etc. can determine the duration of our correction. Educated guess: a couple of weeks.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coin Market

Saylor hints at impending BTC purchase after latest capital raise

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Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor hinted at an impending Bitcoin (BTC) purchase after the company raised additional capital this week through its latest preferred stock offering.

The executive posted the Sunday Bitcoin chart on X that signals another BTC acquisition the next day — when traditional financial markets open — with the playful message “needs more orange.”

According to SaylorTracker, the company’s most recent BTC acquisition occurred on March 17, when Strategy purchased 130 BTC, valued at $10.7 million, bringing its total holdings to 499,226 BTC.

Strategy’s total Bitcoin purchases. Source: SaylorTracker

Strategy’s March 17 BTC acquisition represents one of its smallest purchases on record and came after a two-week break in buying.

On March 21, the company announced the pricing of its latest tranche of preferred stock. The preferred stock was sold at $85 per share and featured a 10% coupon. According to Strategy, the offering should bring the company approximately $711 million in revenue.

Michael Saylor continues evangelizing for the Bitcoin network, inspiring dozens of publicly traded companies to adopt BTC as a treasury asset and petitioning the US government to buy more of the scarce digital commodity.

Strategy’s BTC acquisitions in 2025. Source: SaylorTracker

Related: Michael Saylor’s Strategy to raise up to $21B to purchase more Bitcoin

Saylor pushes for the US government to purchase 25% of BTC’s total supply

Saylor wrote that the US government should acquire 25% of Bitcoin’s total supply by 2035 — when 99% of the total BTC supply has been mined.

The executive also petitioned for the US government to adopt a comprehensive framework for all digital assets in a proposal titled, A Digital Assets Strategy to Dominate the 21st Century Global Economy.

Saylor giving his 21 Truths of Bitcoin speech at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit. Source: Cointelegraph

Speaking at the recent Blockworks Digital Asset Summit, the Strategy co-founder presented his 21 Truths of Bitcoin speech. The executive told the audience:

“Gold still underperforms the S&P Index by a factor of two or more, so there is only one commodity in the history of the human race that was not a garbage investment — the one commodity is Bitcoin — a digital commodity.”

Despite the recent market downturn, Strategy is still up over 28% on its BTC investment and is sitting on over $9.3 billion in unrealized gains.

Magazine: ‘China’s MicroStrategy’ Meitu sells all its Bitcoin and Ethereum: Asia Express

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