The current Bitcoin (BTC) bear market, defined as a 20% or more drop from the all-time high, is relatively weak in terms of magnitude and should only last for 90 days, according to market analyst and the author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value, Timothy Peterson.

Peterson compared the current downturn to the 10 previous bear markets, which occur roughly once per year, and said that only four bear markets have been worse than the price decline in terms of duration, including 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024.

The analyst predicted that BTC will not sink deeply below the $50,000 price level due to the underlying adoption trends. However, Peterson also argued that based on momentum, it is unlikely that BTC will break below $80,000. The analyst added:

“There may be a slide in the next 30 days followed by a 20-40% rally sometime after April 15. You can see that in the charts around day 120. This would probably be enough of a headline to bring weak hands back into the market and propel Bitcoin even higher.”

Crypto markets experienced a sharp downturn following United States President Trump’s tariffs on several US trading partners, which sparked counter-tariffs on US exports, leading to fears of a prolonged trade war.

Comparison of every bear market since 2025. Source: Timothy Peterson

Related: Is Bitcoin going to $65K? Traders explain why they’re still bearish

Investors flee risk-on assets over trade war fears

Investor appetite for speculative assets is declining due to the ongoing trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty.

The Glassnode Hot Supply metric, a measure of BTC owned for one week or less, declined from 5.9% amid the historic bull rally in November 2024 to only 2.3% as of March 20.

According to Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, crypto markets will face trade war pressures until April 2025, when international negotiations could potentially lower or diffuse the trade tariffs altogether.

A recent analysis from CryptoQuant also shows that a majority of retail traders are already invested in BTC, dashing long-held hopes that a massive rush of retail traders would inject fresh capital into the markets and push prices higher in the near term.

The trade war also placed Bitcoin’s safe haven narrative in doubt as the price of the decentralized asset collapsed over tariff headlines alongside other risk and speculative assets.

Magazine: Bitcoiners are ‘all in’ on Trump since Bitcoin ’24, but it’s getting risky

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bilal Bin Saqib, the CEO of Pakistan’s Crypto Council, has proposed using the country’s runoff energy to fuel Bitcoin (BTC) mining at the Crypto Council’s inaugural meeting on March 21.

According to an article from The Nation, the council is exploring comprehensive regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies to attract foreign direct investment and establish Pakistan as a crypto hub.

The meeting included lawmakers, the Bank of Pakistan’s governor, the chairman of Pakistan’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SECP), and the federal information technology secretary. Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb had this to say about the meeting:

“This is the beginning of a new digital chapter for our economy. We are committed to building a transparent, future-ready financial ecosystem that attracts investment, empowers our youth, and puts Pakistan on the global map as a leader in emerging technologies.”

The Crypto Council represents a radical departure from the government of Pakistan’s previous stance on crypto. In May 2023, former minister of state for finance and revenue, Aisha Ghaus Pasha said crypto would never be legal in the country.

Pasha cited anti-money laundering restrictions under the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) as the primary motivation for the government’s anti-crypto stance.

The presence of Bitcoin miners can stabilize electrical grids. Source: Science Direct

Related: Pakistan eyes crypto legal framework to boost foreign investment

Pakistan follows the United States in embracing crypto

The government of Pakistan moved to regulate cryptocurrencies as legal tender on Nov. 4, 2024 — the same day as the elections in the United States.

Following the re-election of Donald Trump in the US and the Jan. 20 inauguration, Trump moved quickly to establish pro-crypto policies at the federal level.

On Jan. 23, President Trump signed an executive order establishing the Working Group on Digital Assets — an executive advisory council tasked with exploring comprehensive regulatory reform on digital assets.

President Trump signs executive order establishing the President’s Working Group on Digital Assets. Source: The White House

The Jan. 23 order also prohibited the government from researching, developing, or issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC).

President Trump also signed an executive order creating a Bitcoin strategic reserve and a separate digital asset stockpile in March 2025 that will likely include cryptocurrencies made by US-based firms.

Magazine: How crypto laws are changing across the world in 2025

Opinion by: Brendon Sedo, Core DAO initial contributor

Bitcoin is outgrowing the “digital gold” narrative. The primary driver of this shift is the rise of Bitcoin DeFi (BTCfi), which looks beyond the mere store-of-value use cases. 

In 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) became a natively yield-generating asset and the centerpiece of Ethereum-style decentralized finance ecosystems. 2025 is when that kindling can grow its flame on innovative Bitcoin sidechains. 

Most past attempts to tap Bitcoin’s value as a productive asset required significant changes to its base layer. That’s a big reason they failed. The Bitcoin layer 1 is not designed for much change, leaving most Bitcoiners to merely hodl and not do much else. The result is that Bitcoin remained underutilized as a network and an asset.

Bitcoin sidechains have emerged as the perfect solution to all these problems, scaling Bitcoin’s utility without altering or being limited by the base layer. Naturally, these protocols will be the most potent catalyst for BTCfi’s growth, especially with BTC surpassing $100,000, constituting over 60% of the total crypto market share, and entering a new regulatory landscape with the first “pro-crypto” US government regime.

Scaling Bitcoin, a productive asset

Per Hal Finney, “Bitcoin itself cannot scale to have every single financial transaction […] included in the blockchain.” That’s why there’s a need for a secondary level of payment’ in his view. 

For a long time, the blockchain space ignored Finney’s call to action and prioritized innovation that isolated Bitcoin. However, innovations previously limited to chains like Ethereum are now crossing over to the world of Bitcoin. Sidechains, rollups and other scaling solutions offer more options for holders who want Ethereum-style utility while remaining aligned with Bitcoin. This prepared the ground for BTCfi, where holders can access a range of income-generating solutions like staking, lending and derivatives. 

The industry is, however, still in the early innings of this revolution in Bitcoin. As of November 2024, merely 0.8% of its circulating supply is utilized for DeFi use cases, according to Galaxy Digital. Out of Bitcoin’s roughly $2 trillion market cap, less than $7 billion comprises BTCfi TVL.

While this may appear unencouraging, it highlights the massive remaining opportunity. Bitcoin L2 infrastructure scaled 7x from 2021 to November 2024. 

Recent: Bitcoin DeFi TVL up 2,000% amid bumper 2024 for BTC price, adoption

More importantly, it has accounted for a sizable share of new liquidity flowing into BTC, besides institutional products like exchange-traded funds (ETFs). 

Even if the supply of Bitcoin in BTCfi platforms and sidechains grows by 0.25% annually, the sector will have a total addressable market of $44 billion to $47 billion by 2030, according to Galaxy Digital. However, as Bitcoiners know, this is a conservative estimate and would be accelerated by accelerating BTC price action or even more Bitcoin DeFi adoption. 

VCs, for one, have started to recognize the potential of Bitcoin sidechains, investing over $447 million already, according to Galaxy Digital. Of this, about $174 million was invested in Q3 2024, setting the stage for more explosive growth in 2025. More funding for early-stage projects will ensure more successful launches, innovations, choices for users, and overall value. 

As Bitcoin-native solutions provide access to productive use cases for Bitcoin, users will no longer need to rely on trusted intermediaries and Bitcoin-agnostic smart contract platforms. Sacrifices that were necessary to expand the utility of Bitcoin in the past will no longer be required. That can unlock substantial value for principled BTC holders and even the Bitcoin network itself. 

Yields on Bitcoin for Bitcoin

So far, bridging to Turing-complete Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) chains has been a go-to way to facilitate yields and other financial use cases on Bitcoin. For example, the wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) market on Ethereum is more than $10 billion. While solutions like WBTC have been suitable for some, many Bitcoin holders prefer not to entrust custodians with their capital or rely on chains like Ethereum, which do not align with Bitcoin’s consensus principles or support the network at all. 

BTCfi, defined by Bitcoin-aligned and Bitcoin-powered infrastructure, is a solution from which both WBTC users and Bitcoin purists can benefit. Users who are already accustomed to Ethereum’s smart contract sophistication can continue to enjoy that EVM experience while also growing closer to Bitcoin’s roots. Principled Bitcoin users can get more options for their BTC’s utility if the sidechain aligns with the base network. 

Bitcoin holders also gain access to BTC derivatives superior to Ethereum-native solutions like WBTC. Yield-bearing BTC derivatives on Bitcoin-aligned sidechains are a 100x improvement, offering self-custody and previously unavailable yield sources to Bitcoin holders. 

Overall, BTCfi can be much more significant. Not just compared to where it is now, but also vis-a-vis EVM and SVM-based DeFi. Bitcoin sidechains are already driving this shift, and will continue to do so throughout 2025. All that is needed is the right approach and consistency regarding development and product pipelines.

For BTCfi, the path is clear: Deliver use cases with product-market fit to Bitcoin holders on Bitcoin-powered platforms. This will lay the foundation for generating even more value for the Bitcoin community as a whole. And ultimately, there will be a positive flywheel of Bitcoin adoption. 

The institutional side led headlines in 2024. Now, it’s time for the native, onchain camp to show its strength and deliver. 

Opinion by: Brendon Sedo, Core DAO initial contributor.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.