Bitcoin (BTC) fell 4.29% last week, but the bulls started a recovery by pushing the price back above $83,500 on March 31. However, traders are likely to remain on edge until April 2, when new US trade tariffs are set to kick in. The event could trigger a sharp, knee-jerk reaction on either side of the market.

Traders remain cautious in the near term, but a minor positive is that lower levels are attracting buyers. Cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) witnessed modest inflows of $226 million last week, CoinShares reported on March 31. 

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Strategy took advantage of the pullback in Bitcoin by adding 22,048 Bitcoin for $1.92 billion at an average price of $86,969. After the latest purchase, the company holds 528,185 Bitcoin bought for roughly $35.63 billion.

Could Bitcoin break above the stiff overhead resistance, pulling select altcoins higher? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) broke above the 20-day exponential moving average (5,706) on March 24, but that proved to be a bull trap.

SPX daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The price turned down sharply on March 26 and broke below the 5,600 support. Both moving averages are sloping down, and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative territory, indicating an advantage to sellers. There is solid support at 5,500, but if the level breaks down, the index could tumble to 5,400 and subsequently to 5,100.

This negative view will be invalidated if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above 5,800. Such a move suggests that the index may have bottomed out in the near term.

US Dollar Index price analysis

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading below the 20-day EMA (104.46), indicating that the sentiment remains negative.

DXY daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bears will try to sink the index to 103.37, which is a critical level to watch out for. Buyers are expected to defend the 103.37 level with all their might because if they fail in their endeavor, the index could plunge to 101.

Contrarily, a break and close above the 20-day EMA suggests that the bulls are trying to make a comeback. The index may rise to 105.42 and then to the 50-day simple moving average (106.09).

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin remains under pressure as bears are trying to sink the price to the critical support at $80,000. A minor positive in favor of the bulls is that they are attempting to arrest the decline at $81,100.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls will try to push the price to the resistance line, which is likely to attract strong selling by the bears. If the price turns down from the resistance line, the likelihood of a break below $80,000 increases. The BTC/USDT pair could slump to $76,606 and eventually to $73,777.

On the contrary, a break and close above the resistance line suggests that the bears are losing their grip. The pair could pick up momentum above $89,000 and rally toward $95,000.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) has reached the vital support at $1,754, from where the bulls are trying to start a relief rally.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bears will try to halt the recovery attempt at the 20-day EMA ($1,980). If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it increases the possibility of a break below $1,754. That could sink the ETH/USDT pair to $1,550.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the breakdown level of $2,111. The pair will then complete a bullish double-bottom pattern, which has a target objective of $2,468.

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) has dropped to the critical $2 support, which is likely to attract solid buying by the bulls. 

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Any bounce is expected to face selling at the moving averages. If the price turns down from the moving averages, it heightens the risk of a break below $2. If that happens, the XRP/USDT pair will complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. There is minor support at $1.77, but if the level gets taken out, the pair could collapse to $1.27.

Time is running out for the bulls. If they want to prevent the downside, they will have to quickly drive the price above the moving averages. The pair may then travel to the resistance line.

BNB price analysis

BNB’s (BNB) narrow range resolved to the downside with a break and close below the moving averages on March 29.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The BNB/USDT pair has support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $591 and then at the 50% retracement level of $575. If the price rebounds off the support, the bulls will try to propel the pair above the moving averages and the $644 resistance. If they manage to do that, the pair could rally to $686.

Contrarily, a break and close below $575 could sink the pair to the 61.8% retracement level of $559. A deeper pullback is likely to delay the next leg of the up move.

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) is finding support near $120, indicating that the buyers are fiercely defending the level.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($133). That opens the doors for a rise to the 50-day SMA ($148), which may again act as a stiff resistance. However, if buyers pierce the resistance, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to $180.

If sellers want to strengthen their position, they will have to pull the price below the $120 to $110 support zone. If they manage to do that, the pair could start the next leg of the downtrend toward $80.

Related: XRP bulls in ‘denial’ as price trend mirrors previous 75-90% crashes

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) is trying to take support at the $0.16 support, but a weak bounce suggests a lack of demand from the bulls.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The DOGE/USDT pair could skid to $0.14, where the buyers are expected to step in. Any bounce-off of $0.14 is expected to face selling at the moving averages. If the price turns down from the moving averages, it increases the possibility of a break below $0.14. If that happens, the pair could plummet to $0.10.

Buyers will have to push and maintain the price above $0.20 to suggest that the pair may have formed a floor at $0.14. The pair may then ascend to $0.24.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) has slipped to the uptrend line, which is an important near-term support to watch out for.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.71) and the RSI in the negative territory signal a slight advantage to the bears. A close below the uptrend line could start a downward move toward $0.50.

On the other hand, a bounce off the uptrend line could push the ADA/USDT pair toward the moving averages. Buyers will be back in control after they propel and maintain the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.75).

Toncoin price analysis

Toncoin (TON) is getting squeezed between the 20-day EMA ($3.63) and the overhead resistance at $4.14.

TON/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory suggest the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers drive the price above $4.14, the TON/USDT pair is likely to pick up momentum and climb to $5 and later to $5.65.

This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below the 50-day SMA ($3.46). That could sink the pair to $3.30 and later to $2.81.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The top Democrat on the US House Financial Services Committee issued a warning after reports suggested that Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s “government efficiency” team would be given access to data and systems at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

In a March 31 notice, Representative Maxine Waters reiterated a warning from a letter she sent to acting SEC Chair Mark Uyeda in February in response to the Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency’s reported access to sensitive SEC information. DOGE is an advisory body to US President Donald Trump rather than an official department established by Congress. According to the California lawmaker, giving Musk such access would have “dire consequences” for US investors and present conflicts of interest.

“[…] as a result of this takeover, the agency is at greater risk of data breaches and market disruptions, both of which could result in investors, including retirees, losing their hard-earning savings,” said Waters, adding:

“Not only that, Musk, who has been the subject of repeated SEC enforcement actions for breaking securities laws and regulations, can benefit his own businesses and harm his competitors by using his access to confidential business information and his influence over the agency’s operations.”

Waters’ warning followed multiple reports suggesting that Musk’s DOGE team contacted the SEC and would be given access to the commission’s systems and data. Since joining the Trump administration as a “special government employee,” Musk has spearheaded efforts to fire staff at multiple government agencies, including the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the watchdog Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Many of DOGE’s actions face lawsuits in federal court from parties alleging the group’s actions were illegal or unconstitutional.

Related: Can the law keep up with Musk and DOGE?

As one of the major US financial regulators, the SEC is responsible for oversight and regulation of many aspects of the cryptocurrency industry, including whether many tokens qualify as securities. Under Uyeda and US President Donald Trump, the commission has dropped several lawsuits alleging violations of securities laws against crypto firms since January.

‘Cost-cutting’ strategy at SEC?

It’s unclear whether the DOGE team intends to “purge” the SEC of employees Musk considers not loyal to the Trump administration, as has been implied in some lawsuits involving firings at other government agencies. Cointelegraph contacted acting chair Uyeda and SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw for comment but did not receive a response by the time of publication.

DOGE’s reported infiltration of the SEC comes as the US Senate Banking Committee is expected to vote on whether to advance the nomination of Paul Atkins, Trump’s pick to chair the agency. At his March 27 confirmation hearing, Atkins said he would “definitely” be willing to work with DOGE if confirmed. Democratic lawmakers at the hearing questioned Atkins’ potential conflicts of interest with the crypto industry.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

Opinion by: Genny Ngai and Will Roth of Morrison Cohen LLP

Since taking office, the Trump administration has designated several drug and violent cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) and Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs). US President Donald Trump has also called for the “total elimination” of these cartels and the like. These executive directives are not good developments for the cryptocurrency industry. On their face, these mandates appear focused only on criminal cartels. Make no mistake: These executive actions will cause unforeseen collateral damage to the digital asset community. Crypto actors, including software developers and investors, may very well get caught in the crosshairs of aggressive anti-terrorism prosecutions and follow-on civil lawsuits.

Increased threat of criminal anti-terrorism investigations 

The biggest threat stemming from Trump’s executive order on cartels is the Department of Justice (DOJ). Almost immediately after President Trump called for the designation of cartels as terrorists, the DOJ issued a memo directing federal prosecutors to use “the most serious and broad charges,” including anti-terrorism charges, against cartels and transnational criminal organizations.

This is a new and serious development for prosecutors. Now that cartels are designated as terrorist organizations, prosecutors can go beyond the traditional drug and money-laundering statutes and rely on criminal anti-terrorism statutes like 18 U.S.C. § 2339B — the material-support statute — to investigate cartels and anyone who they believe “knowingly provides material support or resources” to the designated cartels. 

Why should the crypto industry be concerned with these developments? Because “material support or resources” is not just limited to providing physical weapons to terrorists. “Material support or resources” is broadly defined as “any property, tangible or intangible, or service.” Anyone who knowingly provides anything of value to a designated cartel could now conceivably violate § 2339B. 

Even though cryptocurrency platforms are not financial institutions and never take custody of users’ assets, aggressive prosecutors may take the hardline view that software developers who design crypto platforms — and those who fund these protocols — are providing “material support or resources” to terrorists and launch harmful investigations against them.

This is not some abstract possibility. The government has already demonstrated a willingness to take this aggressive position against the crypto industry. For example, the DOJ indicted the developers of the blockchain-based software protocol Tornado Cash on money laundering and sanction charges and accused them of operating a large-scale money laundering operation that laundered at least $1 billion in criminal proceeds for cybercriminals, including a sanctioned North Korean hacking group.

Recent: Crypto crime in 2024 likely exceeded $51B, far higher than reported: Chainalysis

Moreover, the government already believes that cartels use cryptocurrency to launder drug proceeds and has brought numerous cases charging individuals for laundering drug proceeds through cryptocurrency on behalf of Mexican and Colombian drug cartels. TRM Labs, a blockchain intelligence company that helps detect crypto crime, has even identified how the Sinaloa drug cartel — a recently designated FTO/SDGT — has used cryptocurrency platforms to launder drug proceeds.

The digital asset community faces real risks here. Putting aside the reputational damage and costs that come from defending criminal anti-terrorism investigations, violations of § 2339B impose a statutory maximum term of imprisonment of 20 years (or life if a death occurred) and monetary penalties. Anti-terrorism statutes also have extraterritorial reach, so crypto companies outside the US are not immune to investigation or prosecution.

Civil anti-terrorism lawsuits will escalate 

The designation of cartels as FTOs/SDGTs will also increase the rate at which crypto companies will be sued under the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA). Under the ATA, private citizens, or their representatives, can sue terrorists for their injuries, and anyone “who aids and abets, by knowingly providing substantial assistance, or who conspires with the person who committed such an act of international terrorism.” 

Aggressive plaintiffs’ counsel have already relied on the ATA to sue cryptocurrency companies in court. After Binance and its founder pled guilty to criminal charges in late 2023, US victims of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack in Israel sued Binance and its founder under the ATA, alleging that the defendants knowingly provided a “mechanism for Hamas and other terrorist groups to raise funds and transact illicit business in support of terrorist activities” and that Binance processed nearly $60 million in crypto transactions for these terrorists. The defendants filed a motion to dismiss the complaint, which was granted in part and denied in part. For now, the district court permits the Ranaan plaintiffs to proceed against Binance with their aiding-and-abetting theory. Crypto companies should expect to see more ATA lawsuits now that drug cartels are on the official terrorist list. 

Vigilance is key 

Crypto companies may think that Trump’s war against cartels has nothing to do with them. The reality is, however, that the effects of this war will be widespread, and crypto companies may be unwittingly drawn into the crossfire. Now is not the time for the digital asset community to relax internal compliance measures. With anti-terrorism statutes in play, crypto companies must ensure that transactions with all FTOs/SDGTs are identified and blocked, monitor for new terrorist designations, and understand areas of new geographical risks.

Opinion by: Genny Ngai and Will Roth of Morrison Cohen LLP.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.