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‘Bitcoin bull cycle is over,' CryptoQuant CEO warns, citing onchain metrics

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CryptoQuant’s head chief says Bitcoin’s bull market could already be over — changing his stance from earlier in the month when he said the Bitcoin bull cycle will be slow but “is still intact.”

“Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action,” CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju said in a March 17 X post.

All signals are currently bearish, says Ju

Ju said that all Bitcoin (BTC) onchain metrics indicate a bear market. “With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices,” Ju said. 

It comes only days after Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin funding rates, which reflect the cost of holding long or short positions in crypto futures, are hovering close to 0%, indicating increasing indecisiveness among traders.

Ju’s claim is in stark contrast to his March 4 post, where he said the Bitcoin bull cycle will remain slow but “is still intact,” pointing to neutral readings on key indicators.

“Fundamentals remain strong, with more mining rigs coming online,” Ju said in a March 4 X post.

Other analysts aren’t as bearish. Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph that “there is no reason to panic.”

Hundal explained that while investors are “spooked” by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, “all the numbers show a global economy that is pointing in the right direction.”

“Money will move to on-risk assets when the market is ready to take on risk.”

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $83,030, down 14.79% over the past month, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Bitcoin is down 14.89% over the past month. Source: CoinMarketCap

Some analysts think that given that the global M2 money supply has just reached new highs, Bitcoin could be set for an uptrend.

“I’m saying Global Money Supply just made another new ATH. We are about to see Bitcoin rally again,” crypto analyst Seth said in a recent X post.

Likewise, CoinRoutes CEO Dave Weisberger said that if the historical trend persists, Bitcoin could reach all-time highs by late April.

“Expect Bitcoin to hit a new ATH within a month if its BETA correlation to money supply holds,” Weisberger said in a March 17 X post.

Related: Bitcoin price fails to go parabolic as the US Dollar Index (DXY) falls — Why?

However, based on historical data, Bitcoin’s current price is 67% lower than the lower bound should be, according to former Phunware CEO Alan Knitowski.

“At this stage of the cycle, the lower bound of the historical range should be around $250,000,” Knitowski said in a March 17 X post.

Source: Alan Knitowski

Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten recently told Cointelegraph that “there’s more than a 50% chance we will see all-time highs before the end of June this year.” Bitcoin’s current all-time high of $109,000 was reached on Jan. 20, just hours before Trump was inaugurated as US President.

Magazine: Crypto fans are obsessed with longevity and biohacking: Here’s why

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Bakkt names new co-CEO amid re-focus on crypto offerings

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Crypto custody and trading firm Bakkt Holdings has appointed a new co-CEO and is cutting some of its services to focus on its crypto offerings after recently losing two major clients.

Akshay Naheta, the founder of stablecoin payments infrastructure firm Distributed Technologies Research (DTR), will join Bakkt CEO Andy Main in the role, the company said on March 19.

Bakkt added that it will enter into an agreement with DTR to integrate its stablecoin-based payment infrastructure with Bakkt’s crypto trading and brokerage technology, subject to regulatory approval.

Bakkt said the partnership would open new revenue streams in stablecoin payments and crypto trading while increasing efficiency in cross-border payments, a popular use case for crypto.

Naheta founded DTR in 2022 after a nearly six-year stint in various executive roles at investment management giant SoftBank Group, which has a history of investing in crypto firms.

In a separate statement reporting its fourth quarter and full year 2024 results, Bakkt said it wants “to focus resources on core crypto offerings” and was potentially looking to sell or wind down its loyalty services business, which allows its clients to offer travel and merchandise perks.

Bakkt recently shared its take on stablecoins ahead of it, sharing it had partnered with DTR. Source: Bakkt

Bakkt added that it was selling its crypto custody subsidiary, Bakkt Trust, to its parent company, Intercontinental Exchange, for $1.5 million. It said the sale would cut operating costs by $3.8 million a year and free up around $3 million for investment into its crypto business.

The firm added it would maintain custody solutions “through a robust network of reputable custody providers.”

Its moves come after Bakkt disclosed on March 17 that its major clients, Bank of America and trading platform Webull, won’t be renewing contacts with the firm when they expire in April and June, respectively.

Bank of America accounted for around 16% of Bakkt’s loyalty services revenue in 2023 and 2024, while Webull represented 74% of its crypto revenues over that same period.

The disclosure sent its share price tumbling on March 18, which closed the trading day down over 27% to $9.33.

Bakkt improves top and bottom-line earnings 

Bakkt reported on March 19 that its total 2024 revenues came in at $3.49 billion, up nearly 350% year-over-year, while its yearly net loss roughly halved to $103.4 million.

Related: Fund managers dump US stocks at record pace — Can recession fears hurt Bitcoin? 

Fourth quarter revenues increased more than seven-fold from 2024, reaching $1.8 billion, while its net loss narrowed to $40.4 million. 

It forecast revenues of between $1.03 billion to $1.28 billion for the first quarter of 2025, which would be a nearly 50% bump from the first quarter of 2024.

Shares in Bakkt (BKKT) closed flat at $9.31 on March 19 after a dip to $8.50 during trading; it reached a top of $9.88 after the bell but has since settled to around its closing price, according to Google Finance.

Bakkt shares closed mostly flat on March 19 and settled after the bell. Source: Google Finance

Bakkt is down nearly 62.5% so far this year and has essentially lost all value since peaking at over $1,000 in October 2021.

Opinion: Coinbase and Base: Is crypto just becoming traditional finance 2.0?

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Sanctioned crypto exchange Garantex shifts millions as it reboots platform

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Shuttered crypto exchange Garantex is reportedly back under a new name after laundering millions in ruble-backed stablecoins and sending them to a freshly created exchange, according to a Swiss blockchain analytics company.  

Global Ledger claims the operators of the Russian exchange have shifted liquidity and customer deposits to Grinex, which they say is “Garantex’s full-fledged successor,” in a report released to X on March 19.

“We can confidently state that Grinex and Garantex are directly connected both onchain and offchain.”

“The movement of funds, including the systematic transfer of A7A5 liquidity, the use of one-time-use wallets, and the involvement of addresses previously associated with Garantex, provides clear onchain proof of their link,” the Global Ledger team said in the report.

After completing its investigation on March 13, Global Ledger says it had found onchain data showing Garantex laundered over $60 million worth of ruble-backed stablecoins called A7A5 and sent them to addresses associated with Grinex.

Global Ledger claims Garantex has moved all its funds over to a newly launched exchange and is back in business. Source: Global Ledger

“In this case, the burning and subsequent minting process was used to launder funds from Garantex, allowing new coins to be minted from a system address with a clean history,” the team said.

A Garantex manager also reportedly told Global Ledger that customers have been visiting the exchange office in person and moving funds from Garantex to Grinex.

“Additionally, offchain indicators, such as transactional patterns, commentaries and exchange behaviors, further reinforce this connection,” it said.

The report also points to a description of Grinex on the Russian crypto tracking site CoinMarketRating, claiming that the owners of Garantex created it. The reports said this shows “Grinex is not an independent entity but rather a full-fledged successor to Garantex, continuing its financial operations despite the exchange’s official shutdown.”

Source: Global Ledger

By March 14, the volume of incoming transactions on Grinex was nearly $30 million, according to Global Ledger. CoinMarketRating shows that the trade volume for the month is now over $68 million, with spot trading topping $2 million.

The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control first hit Garantex with sanctions in April 2022 for allegedly money laundering violations.

Related: US, UK, Australia sanction Zservers for hosting crypto ransomware LockBit

On March 6, the US Department of Justice collaborated with authorities in Germany and Finland to freeze domains associated with Garantex, which they claim processed over $96 billion worth of criminal proceeds since launching in 2019.

Stablecoin operator Tether also froze $27 million in Tether (USDT), on March 6 which forced Garantex to halt all operations, including withdrawals.

Only a few days later, on March 12, officials with India’s Central Bureau of Investigation arrested Aleksej Bešciokov, who allegedly operated Garantex, on US charges that included conspiracy to commit money laundering. 

Magazine: How crypto laws are changing across the world in 2025

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Kraken nears $1.5B deal allowing it to offer US crypto futures: Report

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Crypto exchange Kraken is reportedly closing in on a $1.5 billion acquisition of trading platform NinjaTrader, a move that would expand Kraken’s customer base and enable it to offer crypto futures and derivatives in the US.

The deal could be confirmed by the morning of March 20 in the US, The Wall Street Journal said in a March 19 report, citing people familiar with the matter.

Kraken’s expanded offerings would be made possible through NinjaTrader’s registration as a Futures Commission Merchant. 

The move would help Kraken’s strategy to work across several asset classes — including plans for equities trading and payments — while enabling NinjaTrader to expand into the UK, continental Europe and Australian markets, the sources told WSJ.

NinjaTrader is expected to remain a standalone platform under Kraken.

Cointelegraph reached out to Kraken and NinjaTrader for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

Source: Wall Street Journal Markets

Kraken posted $1.5 billion in revenue and $665 billion in trading volume from 2.5 million funded customer accounts on its platform in 2024, while NinjaTrader recently said its futures trading tools are used by over 1.8 million customers.

Kraken announced its intention to broaden its product offerings and services last November when it shuttered its non-fungible token marketplace.

Related: Australia fines Kraken operator $5M for regulatory breaches

It comes as the US Securities and Exchange Commission dropped its lawsuit against Kraken on March 3 after it initially alleged that the crypto platform acted as an unregistered broker, dealer, exchange and clearing agency. 

The suit was dismissed with prejudice, with no admission of wrongdoing, no penalties paid and no changes to Kraken’s business. 

Kraken is one of many firms that stand to benefit from a more relaxed regulatory environment in the US under President Donald Trump, who has promised to make America the “crypto capital” of the world.

The crypto exchange was founded in 2011 by Thanh Luu, Michael Gronager and former CEO Jesse Powell, who handed the reins over to former data analytics executive Amir Orad last July.

Kraken consistently ranks among the top seven to 15 largest crypto exchanges by spot trading volume, handling between $390 million and $4.4 billion in daily trades over the past three months, according to CoinGecko data.

Magazine: Deposit risk: What do crypto exchanges really do with your money?

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