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Will Trump’s trade war bring an early end to the Bitcoin bull market?

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Bitcoin’s sell-off might not be over yet, but does data point to the potential end of the BTC bull market?

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Worst crypto cycle ever? Community and history say otherwise

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The cryptocurrency market has faced a significant downturn since the start of 2025, with some investors calling it the most painful cycle in history.

Some were disappointed about industry policy changes and the memecoin craze in the United States, while others even speculated about talent leaving the sector for other industries.

However, while the current crypto market state might look grim to some, the current cycle is far from being the most brutal on record, and many community members remain bullish.

“For those who have been through multiple cycles, this is just part of the process,” Trezor analyst Lucien Bourdon told Cointelegraph.

The post-Trump inauguration sale

The current decline in crypto markets came after Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high above $106,000 in December 2024, with the spike largely attributed to optimism around Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.

While many were optimistic, some investors, such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, accurately predicted a crypto sell-off following Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20.

Bitcoin price chart since October 2024. Source: CoinGecko

Since then, Bitcoin has tumbled more than 18%, with the total crypto market capitalization erasing almost all gains that came from Trump’s election win, dropping 25%.

In the post-Trump inauguration sale, investors offloaded about $4.6 billion from crypto exchange-traded products by March 7, while the spot market saw even more outflows, with at least $1 billion in liquidations in a single day on March 3.

What was the most brutal crypto sell-off in history?

But the most recent sell-off is not the worst on record. “If we’re talking about the worst Bitcoin cycle, 2014–2015 was possibly the most brutal,” Trezor’s Bourdon told Cointelegraph.

Referring to the collapse of the Mt. Gox crypto exchange, which suffered an 850,000 BTC loss in a security breach in 2024, the analyst highlighted the event as the worst Bitcoin sell-off on record. 

Bitcoin price chart in the period from July 2013 to July 2016. Source: CoinGecko

“The Mt. Gox collapse wiped out 70% of Bitcoin’s trading volume, leading to an 85% drawdown in a market with no institutional support and far less liquidity,” Bourdon said.

More than just falling prices

According to Brett Reeves, head of BitGo’s European sales, there is a “great deal more to just falling pieces” in the current market.

In addition to bigger price downturns in the past, Reeves highlighted notable advancements in global crypto products and regulation, which point to crypto assets increasingly becoming integral to the international financial system. He said:

“While prices may be crashing for now, we must remember how far we’ve come in a short space in time and just how much potential this space has in the years ahead.”

Contrary to crypto doubters and pessimists, some industry executives even see the current market cycle as a bull market.

Related: EU retaliatory tariffs threaten Bitcoin correction to $75K — Analysts

“I actually think it’s the best,” Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan told Cointelegraph, adding:

“What sets this bull market apart from previous crypto bull runs is that it’s the first time we’ve seen prices rising over time that is not accompanied by copious money printing. This pullback is a short-term pain that will enable long-term gain.”

According to crypto analyst Miles Deutscher, terms like “bull market,” “bear market,” “cycle,” or “altseason” are not even suitable for the current market situation.

Source: Miles Deutscher

“This is a different market now,” he said in an X post on March 13.

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Congress repealed the IRS broker rule, but can it regulate DeFi?

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The decentralized finance (DeFi) industry is breathing a sigh of relief as Congress relaxes reporting obligations, but questions remain about how lawmakers will regulate DeFi.

On March 12, the House of Representatives voted to nullify a rule that required DeFi protocols to report gross proceeds from crypto sales, as well as info on taxpayers involved, to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). 

The rule, which the IRS issued in December 2024 and wasn’t set to take effect until 2027, was regarded by major industry lobby groups as burdensome and beyond the agency’s authority. 

The White House has already signaled its support for the bill. President Donald Trump is ready to sign when it reaches his desk. But DeFi observers note that the industry has yet to strike a balance between privacy and regulation. 

Bipartisan vote on repealing the rule. Source: DeFi Education Fund

Privacy concerns over IRS DeFi rule

The crypto industry was quick to laud the vote in the House. Marta Belcher, president of the Filecoin Foundation, said that blocking the rule was particularly important for user privacy. 

She told Cointelegraph it is “critical to protect people’s ability to transact directly with each other via open-source code (like smart contracts and decentralized exchanges) while remaining anonymous, in the same way that people can transact directly with each other using cash.”

Privacy concerns were central to the crypto industry’s objections to the rule, with industry observers claiming that it was not fit for purpose and infringed on user privacy. 

Bill Hughes, senior counsel and director of global regulatory matters for Consensys Software wrote in December 2024, “Trading front ends would have to track and report on user activity — both US persons and non-US persons […] And it applies to the sale of every single digital asset — including NFTs and even stablecoins.”

The Blockchain Association, a major crypto industry lobby group, stated that the rule was “an infringement on the privacy rights of individuals using decentralized technology” that would push DeFi offshore.

While the rule has been stopped for now, there still aren’t fixed privacy guidelines in place — something Etherealize CEO Vivek Raman said the industry needs to move forward. 

“There needs to be clear frameworks for blockchain-based privacy while maintaining [Know Your Customer/Anti-Money Laundering] requirements,” he told Cointelegraph.

Raman stated that some transactions and customer data will need to remain private, “and we need guidance on what privacy can look like.”

How do you regulate DeFi?

The crypto space has long juggled user privacy demands and regulators’ Anti-Money Laundering and Know Your Customer concerns. 

One problem lies in the technology itself — if a network is created by many and controlled by no single entity, who can the government contact? 

Per Raman, “It’s hard for a decentralized protocol that is controlled by nobody to issue 1099s or fulfill broker-dealer responsibilities! Companies can certainly be [broker-dealers], but software has not been designed for [broker-dealer] rules.”

DeFi developers can and have been proactive in working with regulators, Chainalysis suggested, as was the case with certain protocols freezing funds after the disastrous $285 million KuCoin hack. 

Related: Timeline: How Bybit’s lost Ethereum went through North Korea’s washing machine

Cinneamhain Ventures partner and consultant Adam Cochran claimed that every protocol has certain pressure points regulators could press on if a protocol were used to commit a crime:

Source: Adam Cochran

However, these specific instances do not make a comprehensive regulatory framework that both the industry and investor protection agencies can point to. 

In that regard, crypto analytics firm Chainalysis stated in 2020 that regulators may need to craft regulations for the DeFi space with decentralized reporting limitations in mind. 

Raman suggested that one possible solution could be zero-knowledge proofs, which allow users to confirm certain data without revealing it. 

He is optimistic about regulators’ ability to find a way to regulate the space while still maintaining user privacy: “I think we’ll see a positive sum environment where DeFi and compliance will coexist.”

The long-awaited crypto regulatory framework 

Trump has already made a number of pro-crypto measures through executive orders and appointing pro-crypto individuals to head parts of his administration — the most recent being the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve. 

Related: US Rep. Byron Donalds to introduce bill codifying Trump’s Bitcoin reserve

The pro-crypto tenure of important financial regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has dropped a number of high-profile enforcement cases against crypto firms.

While notable, the big fish that the crypto industry is waiting for is the crypto regulatory framework and stablecoin bills circulating in Congress, which would give the industry the guardrails it claims it needs to thrive. 

On March 13, the Senate Banking Committee approved the GENIUS Act, the stablecoin bill, putting it one step closer to a vote on the Senate floor. 

The crypto framework bill, FIT 21, was first introduced in the 2024 legislative session, ultimately failing in the Senate. However, in February, House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill said that he anticipated the bill could pass in this session with “modest changes.”

But even if FIT 21 were passed soon, regulations for DeFi could be far off. The bill would exclude DeFi from SEC and CFTC oversight, but it would also establish a working group to research 12 key areas related to DeFi.

This study will seek to understand the risks and benefits of DeFi and will ultimately make regulatory recommendations. 

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US Rep. Byron Donalds to introduce bill codifying Trump’s Bitcoin reserve

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A new bill set to be introduced in Congress aims to formalize President Donald Trump’s executive order establishing a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, a move that could further integrate Bitcoin into the nation’s financial strategy.

Trump signed an executive order on March 7 to use Bitcoin (BTC) seized in government criminal cases to establish a national reserve.

The legislation, introduced by US Representative Byron Donalds, seeks to ensure the Bitcoin reserve becomes a permanent fixture, preventing future administrations from dismantling it through executive action.

Source: Margo Martin

“For years, the Democrats waged war on crypto,” Donalds, a Florida Republican, said in a statement to Bloomberg. “Now is the time for Congressional Republicans to decisively end this war.”

If the bill is passed, it would ensure that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the US Digital Asset Stockpile could not be eliminated via executive actions by a future administration.

The bill will require at least 60 votes in the Senate and a House majority to pass. With Republicans holding a Senate majority — and amid a generally more crypto-friendly environment —the bill has a chance of passing.

US states with Bitcoin reserve bill propositions. Source: Bitcoinlaws

According to Bitcoinlaws data, at least 23 US states have introduced legislation supporting a Bitcoin reserve, reflecting growing state-level interest in integrating crypto into fiscal policy.

Related: Trump turned crypto from ‘oppressed industry’ to ‘centerpiece’ of US strategy

A “pivotal moment” for US crypto regulations

The introduction of the Bitcoin reserve-related bill marks a pivotal moment for the wider crypto industry, not just BTC.

The legislation “aims to cement the reserve as a permanent fixture, shielding it from reversal by future administrations,” according to Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain expert.

The bill signals the US government’s intent to integrate Bitcoin into its financial framework, Lian told Cointelegraph, adding:

“It builds on Trump’s earlier executive action by providing a statutory backbone, potentially clarifying the government’s stance on digital assets. If passed, the bill could reduce uncertainty that has long plagued the crypto space, where agencies like the SEC and CFTC have often clashed over jurisdiction.”

“A codified reserve might encourage a more cohesive regulatory approach, offering businesses and investors a clearer path forward,” he added.

However, identifying the right funding mechanisms and custody solutions for the Bitcoin reserve is a challenging step for governmental entities that may delay the fund’s creation.

Related: European lawmakers silent on US Bitcoin reserve amid digital euro push

The bill may also provide more clarity on the government’s future Bitcoin acquisition strategies. Although the current plan does not involve government Bitcoin purchases, the order does not rule them out.

The order authorizes the US Treasury and Commerce secretaries to develop “budget-neutral strategies” to buy more Bitcoin for the reserve, provided there are no additional costs to taxpayers.

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