Crypto and tech stocks saw large selloffs on March 10 as fears of a US recession heightened despite efforts from the White House to temper concerns. 

Economists at Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan have raised their recession risk this year to 40%, up from 30% at the beginning of 2025. “We see a material risk that the US falls into recession this year owing to extreme US policies,” wrote the analysts, according to The Wall Street Journal. 

Analysts at Goldman Sachs economists also raised their 12-month recession probability to 20%, up from 15%. They said that the forecast could rise further if the Trump administration remains “committed to its policies even in the face of much worse data.” 

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley economists lowered their economic growth forecasts last week and raised inflation expectations. The bank predicted a GDP growth of just 1.5% in 2025, falling to 1.2% in 2026. 

It comes despite a key economic adviser to US President Donald Trump pushed back against talks of a recession. Speaking to CNBC on March 10, Kevin Hassett, who heads the National Economic Council, said there were many reasons to be optimistic about the US economy. 

“There are a lot of reasons to be extremely bullish about the economy going forward. But for sure, this quarter, there are some blips in the data,” he said. 

Meanwhile, in an interview with Fox News on March 9, Donald Trump responded to a question about the possibility of a recession by saying the US economy was going through “a period of transition.”

Blockchain betting platform Polymarket quipped that recession odds are “the best looking chart in finance right now.”

Source: Polymarket

Tech stock and crypto sell-off

The so-called “Trump bump” has dissipated, with the S&P 500 now lower than it was before his Nov. 5 US election victory. 

The index has lost almost 10% from last month’s high, and the Nasdaq is already in a correction, having lost 14% in just three weeks.

The Nasdaq has lost almost 10% this year. Source: Google Finance 

All US stock markets ended March 10 in the red, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.7% to its lowest level since September, the tech-heavy Nasdaq having its worst day since 2022 in a 4% fall, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping nearly 900 points or roughly 2.1%.

The Magnificent 7 — America’s top tech firms — have had a tumultuous start to the week, collectively shedding more than $750 billion in market cap in one day. Tesla tanked a whopping 15%, becoming the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year.

AI giant Nvidia lost 5.1%, Apple shed 4.9%, Meta fell 4.4% and Alphabet lost 4.5% on the day. 

Related: Biggest red weekly candle ever: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Meanwhile, crypto markets have plunged to their lowest point since early November, with a 7.5% fall in total market capitalization to $2.6 trillion on March 11, with around $240 billion exiting the space. 

Crypto market cap declines 1 month. Source: CoinMarketCap

Bitcoin (BTC) has also fallen through previous levels of support, dropping 4% on the day and hitting $76,784 before a minor recovery took the asset back to $79,000 at the time of writing. 

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The reporting of crypto scams in the United States is currently handled by a patchwork of agencies that should be streamlined to better protect consumers, says Coinbase chief security officer Philip Martin.

“It’s a very fragmented ecosystem. Where do you report these things? Well, you go here, you go there, you go somewhere else,” Martin told Cointelegraph at the SXSW conference in Austin, Texas.

“I’d love to see that addressed and really brought under one umbrella, and that then helps us get a better idea of the magnitude of the problem.”

“That then helps drive resources from the whole federal government to do more to address some of the underlying causes, he added.

The US has dozens of federal and state-level agencies that handle reports of financial and internet crimes, one of which is the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3), which gives victims a way to report cybercrime.

Martin said that crypto scam victims are reporting to authorities, but it “feels like they’re screaming into the void to like IC3 or some of the government reporting websites.”

He added the various reporting sites should be consolidated “into a single reporting system that not only has all the data in one place but that also, in a perfect world, gives victims some visibility.”

On an earlier panel regarding online fraud, in which Martin took part, retired FBI agent Roger Campbell said many victims of crypto romance scams search the internet for how to report the crime and “all kinds of information comes up.”

“It’s kind of frustrating,” he said. Campbell gave the example of the UK as a country with an “awesome reporting system” where one portal is used to report all crimes, and victims can follow the status of their complaints.

FBI’s Roger Campbell (center left) on a panel with Coinbase’s Philip Martin (center right). Other panelists include former Twitter safety lead Yoel Roth (right) and MSNBC reporter Mackenzie Sigalos (left). Source: Turner Wright / Cointelegraph

“You report something to the IC3, you never hear anything back 99% of the time,” he added. “It gets frustrating again for the victim. They almost feel victimized again.”

Related: ‘Victim-blaming’ Americans can deter crypto scams reporting — Regulator 

Coinbase’s Martin told Cointelegraph that scams have a “lag in reporting,” and the way that attackers carry out schemes today won’t be known for months.

“A scam may have happened six months ago, and we might hear about it tomorrow,” he said.

Another difficulty in policing crypto scams, according to Martin, is that they’re “by and large” conducted from outside the US in countries including Myanmar and Laos, where “it can be hard for law enforcement to reach into those areas and really sort of strangle the stuff at the root. “

He said combatting crypto scams should focus on international relations and the US, “making it a priority to work with governments around the world so that there’s no safe haven for these scammers.”

Meanwhile, on March 10, the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation said it received over 2,600 complaints last year and found seven types of scams it hadn’t yet discovered, including crypto mining, gaming, jobs and giveaway scams.

Magazine: Influencers shilling memecoin scams face severe legal consequences 

Additional reporting by Turner Wright.

A proposed rule change pushing for some crypto firms to register as exchanges could be abandoned under a new directive from the acting chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. 

During a March 10 speech at the Washington Conference of the Institute of International Bankers, acting SEC Chairman Mark Uyeda said he had “asked SEC staff for options on abandoning” part of the proposed changes that would expand regulation of alternative trading systems (ATSs) to include crypto firms.

“In light of the significant negative public comment received on the definition of exchange with respect to crypto, I have asked SEC staff for options on abandoning that part of the proposal,” he said.

“In my view, it was a mistake for the commission to link together regulation of the Treasury markets with a heavy-handed attempt to tamp down the crypto market.”

Uyeda says the rule was initially crafted in 2020 under former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton to establish more straightforward rules for alternative trading systems; the guidance was intended to mainly impact US Treasury market participants.

Source: US Securities and Exchange Commission

However, when it fell to former SEC Chair Gary Gensler to implement the rule, he took a “very different direction” by expanding the list beyond just ATSs.

“Rather than focusing on the narrow issues relating to Government Securities ATSs, a new iteration of the rule was proposed in 2022 that would redefine the regulatory definition of an exchange,” Uyeda said.

“The new definition of the term exchange included communications protocols without clearly defining what that term meant. Effectively, the vastly expanded definition of an exchange would have picked up various protocols used with respect to crypto assets,” he added.

Related: Coinbase finds flawed analysis in SEC’s proposed exchange definition

Gensler’s time at the SEC came with an aggressive regulatory stance toward crypto. 

He brought upward of 100 regulatory actions against firms from 2021 until his resignation on Jan. 20, the same day as Donald Trump started his second term as US president. Trump had promised to fire Gensler if elected. 

After Genlers’ resignation, the SEC has since taken a new friendlier approach toward crypto. A growing number of firms facing legal action from the regulator have had their cases dismissed, including crypto exchange Gemini on Feb. 26, Kraken on March 3 and crypto trading firm Cumberland DRW on March 4.

Meanwhile, the agency has also launched a crypto task force dedicated to developing a framework for digital assets led by crypto-friendly Commissioner Hester Peirce. 

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered