Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin’s year-over-year return and realized price metric signal strong long-term support from holders and suggest that BTC is currently undervalued.

Standard Chartered estimates a Bitcoin price target in the $110,000–$120,000 zone by Q2 2025.

Positive funding rates point to a potential long squeeze to $90,500.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) weekly close near $94,000 delivered an impressive year-over-year total return of 53.61%. Since the last halving in 2024, the market has shifted from the early 2024 euphoric phase to a “mature bull trend” based on onchain growth, rather than speculative frenzy. 

Bitcoin fundamentals triumph over fear and speculation

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that the year-on-year (YoY) realized price, a measure of the average price at which BTC was last moved, has surged 61.82%, outperforming the YoY market value to realized value’s (MVRV) decline of 8.98%. This indicates long-term holders are raising the base price faster than speculative price increases, a healthy signal for the cycle. 

The negative MVRV suggests that Bitcoin is trading below its fundamental value compared to a year ago, a pattern that precedes significant rallies. This compression of value leaves room for further upside, with analysts eyeing new highs above $110,000 if demand accelerates.

Bitcoin valuation and price comparison chart. Source: Axel Adler Jr.

Similarly, Bitcoin’s realized price by cohort shows a cooling speculative premium, as one-month holders’ cost basis is 5% below the six-month cohort. The current market resembles past accumulation phases, leaving only five to six weeks until the average 180-day point when momentum often accelerates.

Bitcoin realized price of different cohorts. Source: Axel Adler Jr.

This bullish timeline parallels Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick’s prediction that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high of $120,000 in Q2 2025, driven by strategic reallocation from US assets. Kendrick noted that a high US Treasury term premium, correlating with BTC’s price, and time-of-day trading patterns indicate US investors are seeking non-US assets since President Donald Trump’s trade war began on April 2.

Bitcoin price movement between time zones. Source: X.com

Related: Bitcoin could hit $210K in 2025, says Presto research head

Bitcoin futures market hints at “long squeeze” below $91,000

Bitcoin’s funding rate has turned positive, signaling a dominance of long positions as traders bet on price rises above $90,000. Between April 24 and April 25, Bitcoin’s funding rate briefly turned negative, sparking discussions of a potential long squeeze that could push prices toward $97,000. However, the market dynamics shifted with the funding rate flipping positive, which could lead to a long squeeze. 

Bitcoin funding rate. Source: CryptoQuant

A Long squeeze is a market event where a sudden price drop forces over-leveraged long traders to sell, amplifying the decline through mass liquidations.

Bitcoin prices have dropped 1.58% after the New York market session opened on April 28, and BTC might drop as low as $90,500 over the next few days.

As illustrated in the chart, bullish momentum is beginning to fade, and BTC could re-test the fair-value gap (FVG) between $90,500 and 88,750 on the 4-hour chart.

The price also formed a bearish divergence with the relative strength index (RSI) after the price failed to hold a position above $95,000.

Bitcoin 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has called on government officials to address questions related to US President Donald Trump’s memecoin and his media company.

In an April 25 letter to Jamieson Greer, acting director of the US Office of Government Ethics (OGE), Warren, a Democrat from Massachusetts and California Democratic Senator Adam Schiff requested that officials address concerns about Trump’s memecoin after the president announced a dinner and White House tour for some of the individuals who held the most TRUMP tokens. The two senators requested that Greer provide information on safeguards and guidelines related to whether foreign actors and others could buy political influence with the president, potentially impacting his policy positions and federal pardons.

“President Trump’s announcement promises exclusive access to the presidency in exchange for significant investment in one of the President’s business ventures,” wrote the two senators.

“In promising such access, this proposition may implicate several federal ethics laws and constitutional prohibitions, including the federal bribery statute and emoluments clauses of the US Constitution. It also raises the troubling prospect that foreign actors are using the memecoin as a vector to buy influence with President Trump and his associates without needing to disclose their identities publicly.”

April 25 letter from Sens. Warren and Schiff to OGE. Source: Sen. Schiff

The letter was sent the same day Warren reportedly expressed similar concerns about Trump’s potential conflicts of interest with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to an April 25 Reuters report, the Massachusetts senator urged SEC Chair Paul Atkins to ensure that oversight of Trump’s media company was “free from undue political interference and influence from the President and his administration.”

Related: Trump’s WLFI crypto investments aren’t paying off

Though ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, Warren does not have the authority to direct Congress’s agenda with Democrats in the minority. Two Democrats in the Senate and House of Representatives have already called for Trump’s impeachment over his memecoin dinner.

Warren added:

“The American people deserve the unwavering assurance that access to the presidency is not being offered for sale to the highest bidder in exchange for the President’s own financial gain.”

At the time of publication, it was unclear who among the top TRUMP memecoin holders would attend the dinner, scheduled to be held on May 22 at Trump’s golf club in Washington, DC. Speculation and analysis of users suggested that Trump supporters, including Tron founder Justin Sun, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and others, could attend, though none had been confirmed as of April 28.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

Gold-backed cryptocurrencies have spiked in value amid the global trade war unleashed by US President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariffs.

Tether Gold (XAUT) and Paxos Gold (PAXG) reached all-time highs on April 22, with Tether Gold touching $3,529 and Paxos Gold recording a peak of $3,520, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Two other gold-backed cryptocurrencies — Quorium (QGOLD) and Kinesis Gold (KAU) — have seen rises of 8.5% and 7.6%, respectively, in the past 30 days. All four tokens are up 40% or more in the past 12 months, CoinGecko data shows.

Related: Tether clocks $13B in 2024 profits, US bond holdings hit all-time highs

According to a report by Tether, the increased demand for XAUT is due to macroeconomic factors, such as escalating global economic uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, and a rising demand for inflation-resistant assets.

Since US President Trump’s renewed trade war, gold has increased significantly in value. On April 2, Trump’s “Liberation Day,” when the tariffs were announced, the price of one ounce of gold was $3,115. At the time of this writing, on April 28, the ounce price is at $3,335, representing a 7% jump in less than 30 days.

Gold price in USD over one month. Source: GoldPrice.org

Gold, often seen as a hedge against inflation, usually attracts investors during times of economic uncertainty. In similar lines, Bitcoin (BTC), often referred to as “digital gold,” has soared 14% during the same period.

Growing RWA market

Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization — products that bring assets like precious metals, bonds, and real estate onto the blockchain — is a growing market. According to RWA.xyz, the tokenized RWA market capitalization (excluding stablecoins) stands at $21.6 billion, up 8.6% over the past 30 days.

Tether Gold and Paxos Gold are examples of RWA tokenization. Each coin in both products is reportedly backed by one troy ounce of actual gold. Tether is said to store its gold reserves in Switzerland, while Paxos keeps its gold in London. Tokenized gold has been a strong crypto use case in 2025, reaching a two-year high in trading volume on April 10.

Tokenizing gold has a few advantages over more common investment instruments that provide exposure to gold. For instance, settlements through these funds are instant, enabling quick trading. In addition, some tokenized gold tokens can be used to purchase goods and services, while traditional instruments can usually be redeemed only for fiat currency.

Related: Tether launches gold-backed, US dollar stablecoin Alloy